Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll resumes with the Coalition’s best result in ten months.

As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).

UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. poroti @ #2592 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:25 pm

    One for the resident medicos

    “How Fake Surgery Exposes Useless Treatments
    It can reveal whether popular operations are actually effective

    …….. in theNew York Times: “‘Unbelievable’: Heart Stents Fail to Ease Chest Pain.”The headline reflected the results of a British study, published online last November in the Lancet, that used what is probably the best methodology for assessing a surgical procedure: sham surgery. In this case, 200 patients with a blocked artery were randomly assigned to get either a real stent operation or a fake one.

    In the real version, a surgeon snaked a balloon-tipped catheter through an artery in the groin or arm up to the blockage, widened the vessel by inflating the balloon, and then kept it open with a tubelike stent made of wire mesh. In the sham procedure, a catheter was directed to the blockage, but the surgeon only pretended to do the rest.

    The astonishing finding: there was no difference in how the patients felt six weeks after surgery. Both groups reported less pain, and both performed better on treadmill tests……………………… Multiple studies have shown that they do not lower the risk of heart attacks or death. The main justification has been to relieve symptoms such as chest pain,
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-fake-surgery-exposes-useless-treatments/

    Having undergone that procedure, I simply do not believe that report.
    The difference was immediate and profound. It was no imaginary.

  2. Vic,
    It was just spiteful stuff for bakunin to bring the Shorten’s relationship up. There is no similarity to Joyce and Campion at all.

  3. poroti
    I’m thinking of specialising in sham surgeries. They seem to be just as effective as the real thing with a lot less risks.

    Coronary bypass is almost as useless as angioplasty. There are only small subgroups when a heart bypass increases your longevity.

  4. A chance for a moment of ‘fame’ and they come out of the woodwork –

    Peter Campion also told the Cairns Post he hasn’t spoken to his 33-year-old daughter Vikki Campion in years after the pair had a falling out.

  5. Was there anyone in Joyce’s electorate who did not know the goss? Country is country, after all.
    _____
    Boerwar
    One has to have lived in the country to appreciate that comment. The jungle drums are SO effective. So is a night at the pub!

  6. Diogenes @ #2602 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:32 pm

    poroti
    I’m thinking of specialising in sham surgeries. They seem to be just as effective as the real thing with a lot less risks.

    Coronary bypass is almost as useless as angioplasty. There are only small subgroups when a heart bypass increases your longevity.

    Strange how everyone I know who has had either procedure has benefited immensely.

  7. GG
    Depends on the operation. Most of the stuff we do is visible rather than related to symptoms so the placebo effect doesn’t operate.
    You could certainly say quite a few cosmetic procedures don’t make much difference in some patients like some lasers, fillers or botox.

  8. bemused
    “Strange how everyone I know who has had either procedure has benefited immensely.”
    Patients with arthritis thought their arthroscopy made their knee better. It didn’t. The placebo effect is very strong.

  9. Diogenes @ #2611 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    GG
    Depends on the operation. Most of the stuff we do is visible rather than related to symptoms so the placebo effect doesn’t operate.
    You could certainly say quite a few cosmetic procedures don’t make much difference in some patients like some lasers, fillers or botox.

    Your criticism was more that the other procedures did not save lives or did not make much difference.

  10. GG
    Most skin cancers won’t kill you (except melanomas and the occasional SCC). They will however keep growing and ulcerate, bleed, get infected, very unsightly if they are left. But that can take a variable number of months or years.

  11. Diogenes @ #2613 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    bemused
    “Strange how everyone I know who has had either procedure has benefited immensely.”
    Patients with arthritis thought their arthroscopy made their knee better. It didn’t. The placebo effect is very strong.

    I’ve had one of those too. And it met the limited objectives set.
    I had originally had a torn cartridge removed by conventional surgery and the joint later became unstable. At arthroscopy fixed that particular issue, but of course my knee remained stuffed, just no longer unstable and giving way under me unexpectedly.

  12. cat,

    I have not read the comments to which you refer but it is interesting that greens supporters constantly claim the moral high ground. Reality is much much different.

    On Batman, I am wondering if Bandt has shot his own party in the arse with his comments on Moylan.

    Perhaps the liberals will not take too kindly to the comments and re consider a candidate in the by election.

    Time will tell.

    Cheers.

  13. BK says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 6:38 pm
    Was there anyone in Joyce’s electorate who did not know the goss? Country is country, after all.
    _____
    Boerwar
    One has to have lived in the country to appreciate that comment. The jungle drums are SO effective. So is a night at the pub!

    Indeed. It was well known in Armidale that something was amiss, the details were specific, and the jungle drums turned out to be quite correct in their message.

  14. bemused
    Often, given time, those things settle down (it’s not my area but I know a few orthopaedic surgeons who won’t do arthroscopies for “wear and tear”.

  15. What the media should have done when they found out about Joyce, is separate the personal from the public interest and (without explaining why) started adding a footnote to any story involving Joyce. Something like

    “PS voters, your deputy PM betrays and lies to those who trust him the most.”

  16. The bigger question is if these very expensive procedures should be performed when there is little or no evidence for their efficacy in a system which is taking up so many resources and still a black hole of debt.

  17. Diogenes @ #2621 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    bemused
    Often, given time, those things settle down (it’s not my area but I know a few orthopaedic surgeons who won’t do arthroscopies for “wear and tear”.

    It developed over a period of time and I put up with it for quite a while.
    I had the arthroscope more than 20 years ago and I regard it as a success at achieving the objectives set.
    I still await a miracle cure to fix the knee completely. I think I will die waiting.

    The procedure I underwent to get rid of a kidney stone also worked.

  18. I am wondering if Bandt has shot his own party in the arse with his comments on Moylan.

    Hardly. Inner city Greens would lap that shit up. I doubt any Libs that would go the Greens in this one would give a shit, they’ll just want to hurt Labor.

  19. Well, I definitely don’t stand for the same things as Credlin. This is overkill.

    Peta Credlin

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account
    @SkyNewsAust

    By attacking Jim Molan, the Greens attacked not just the man, but the uniform and it highlights just how invested the Greens are in hating our country, who we are, and what we stand for.

  20. Diogenes

    Extreme measures to provide a few months extra of ‘life’ are a waste of time, skills and money. But I doubt that relatives will agree. The patient might.

  21. By attacking Jim Molan, the Greens attacked not just the man, but the uniform and it highlights just how invested the Greens are in hating our country, who we are, and what we stand for.

    No, the Greens are attacking a nasty Far Right extremist who is probably also a racist.

  22. lizzie @ #2626 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:58 pm

    Well, I definitely don’t stand for the same things as Credlin. This is overkill.

    Peta Credlin

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account
    @SkyNewsAust

    By attacking Jim Molan, the Greens attacked not just the man, but the uniform and it highlights just how invested the Greens are in hating our country, who we are, and what we stand for.

    Disagree. Bandt’s comments were inane and facile and unbecoming of an allegedly smart political operator.

    Mainstream Australia has moved on from labeling serving soldiers as war criminals.

    One law of politics is that you highlight the stupidity of your opponents position.

    Credlin was hunting bear. Bandt gave her the scent.

  23. SolarReserve still falling short at flagship solar tower project.
    This is bad news for Port Augusta unless Solar Reserve gets its act together. It has spent most of the past 12 months shut down.

    Production from the facility was first reported in October, 2015, and out of 26 months since then the facility has been completely offline for 9 months. On only 3 months has it met the annualized design goal.

    Maybe better to spend $100 million of taxpayers money on solar and pumped hydro or batteries.
    e.g.

    …there are at least three pumped hydro projects under development in South Australia, one of which Goats Hill, owned by Altura/Delta is only 12 km from Port Augusta with 8 hours storage and 220MW of power.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/solarreserve-still-falling-short-at-flagship-solar-tower-project-13928/

  24. To the Joyce naysayers…

    We’re talking about a bloke who paraded his wife and family as fundamental elements of who he was as a man and a politician.

    He slagged-off against gay marriages on moral grounds.

    He is and was Deputy Prime Minister, not just a country member.

    He was up for re-election, and whatever the supporters of his privacy have to say about it, he’s bloody-well knew that admitting to an adulterous affair would damage him electoral my. Which is why he waited until after the by-election to announce the end of his marriage, and a month or two more to admit he’d been shagging the help and got her pregnant, all while arranging for her to stay as an employee sucking a large salary off the public tit.

    The man’s a monumental hypocrite, a manipulative user and essentially a liar… even as he judges the morals of others from his folksy urban base in rural NSW and the front bench of Parliament.

    He deserves every skerrick of shaming that comes his way. Joyce is a fraud, and all the theorizing about precious privacy won’t alter that.

    He is what he is, warts, mistress, phoney family and all, and they all need to be laid on the table so we can better understand what a true dickhead Barnaby Joyce really is.

  25. ratsak,

    I was thinking of the Libs deciding to stand a candidate as a result of the Bandt outburst.

    Instead of a greens v labor only contest adding a lib candidate may muddy the waters a bit re preferences.

    Anyway, just a thought

    Cheers.

  26. On January 31, 2018, ABC News reported on a document prepared in April 2009 for the Strategic Priorities and Budget Committee (SPBC) warning of critical risks in the roll-out of the Energy Efficient Homes Package.

    In reporting on that document, the ABC did not intend to suggest that Mr Rudd recklessly ignored critical risks of the home insulation scheme before the deaths of four young installers, or that he lied to the royal commission that examined those deaths.

    The ABC accepts that, as found by the royal commission, Mr Rudd was not warned of, and was not aware of critical safety risks at the time.

    The royal commission made no adverse findings against Mr Rudd and there is no suggestion that Mr Rudd lied to the commission.

    The ABC unreservedly apologises to Mr Rudd for any harm or embarrassment caused.

  27. Bushfire Bill @ #2632 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:08 pm

    To the Joyce naysayers…

    We’re talking about a bloke who paraded his wife and family as fundamental elements of who he was as a man and a politician.

    He slagged-off against gay marriages on moral grounds.

    He is and was Deputy Prime Minister, not just a country member.

    He was up for re-election, and whatever the supporters of his privacy have to say about it, he’s bloody-well knew that admitting to an adulterous affair would damage him electoral my. Which is why he waited until after the by-election to announce the end of his marriage, and a month or two more to admit he’d been shagging the help and got her pregnant, all while arranging for her to stay as an employee sucking a large salary off the public tit.

    The man’s a monumental hypocrite, a manipulative user and essentially a liar… even as he judges the morals of others from his folksy urban base in rural NSW and the front bench of Parliament.

    He deserves every skerrick of shaming that comes his way. Joyce is a fraud, and all the theorizing about precious privacy won’t alter that.

    He is what he is, warts, mistress, phoney family and all, and they all need to be laid on the table so we can better understand what a true dickhead Barnaby Joyce really is.

    Joyce was re elected because voters in his electorate thought the whole S44 nonsense was rubbish.

    The electorate knew of his infidelity and the situation. Voters aren’t mugs!

    That Joyce is a liar, hypocrite and unashamed sprouter of sectional interests hasn’t done him any harm politically.

    Personally. I’m not so sure.

  28. Trog Sorrenson @ #2609 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:39 pm

    South Australia should aim for 100% renewables by 2025, not 50%.

    He he. I love the fact that RenewEconomy starts this article with a picture of wind turbines, but the article itself is written by a spruiker for “Solar Citizens”, a lobby group for rooftop solar.

    Oddly enough, not a wind turbine in sight on their own web page 🙁

  29. Player One @ #2640 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:21 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #2609 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:39 pm

    South Australia should aim for 100% renewables by 2025, not 50%.

    He he. I love the fact that RenewEconomy starts this article with a picture of wind turbines, but the article itself is written by a spruiker for “Solar Citizens”, a lobby group for rooftop solar.

    Oddly enough, not a wind turbine in sight on their own web page 🙁

    You can always discount a Trog spiel when it’s backed up by RenewEconomy.

  30. As I’ve posted here before, Barnaby and the rest of them deserve the truth, nothing more, nothing less. If he wanted to pose as a paragon of family and Christian values to the electorate, he should have lived them. He didn’t, he’s a hypocrite and a liar. A free and fair media should have exposed him, not waited until he was safely back in his seat.

  31. GG

    The electorate knew of his infidelity and the situation.

    Not sure about that. Rumour sure but Barnyard’s campaigning portrayed the opposite.

    New England voted him back in because they wanted Turnbull’s government secure. Suckers.

  32. Steve777 @ #2643 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    As I’ve posted here before, Barnaby and the rest of them deserve the truth, nothing more, nothing less. If he wanted to pose as a paragon of family and Christian values to the electorate, he should have lived them. He didn’t, he’s a hypocrite and a liar. A free and fair media should have exposed him, not waited until he was safely back in his seat.

    The fact that Joyce is leader of the Nats and deputy PM and all this is is well known tells you that self righteous moralising is always trumped by permanent sectional interests.

  33. Greensborough Growler @ #2110 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    Player One @ #2640 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:21 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #2609 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:39 pm

    South Australia should aim for 100% renewables by 2025, not 50%.

    He he. I love the fact that RenewEconomy starts this article with a picture of wind turbines, but the article itself is written by a spruiker for “Solar Citizens”, a lobby group for rooftop solar.

    Oddly enough, not a wind turbine in sight on their own web page 🙁

    You can always discount a Trog spiel when it’s backed up by RenewEconomy.

    A couple of old right faction fossils fuelling an argument against 100% renewables. 😆

  34. Greensborough Growler

    Re Molan, he was not just some innocent conscript bystander in Fallujah but a director of it. Even Fox News started questioning how the phosphorous was used in Falluja re legality/morality. Illumination purposes my arske it was bucketed down. There were also widespread reports of pretty dodgy behavior by soldiers.

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