Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll resumes with the Coalition’s best result in ten months.

As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).

UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Expert commentary from Sheridan:

    Trump steals a march on rivals
    4:05PMGREG SHERIDAN
    What looks on face value like a move straight out of Kim Jong-un’s playbook is a stroke of genius that has infuriated Democrats. (Oz headline)

  3. Future prime ministers should tell the truth at all times.
    This applies to Bandt as well.
    On current trends, and best case scenario, Bandt will become the first Greens Prime Minister when he is in his nineties.

  4. Retired general who served with John Kelly in Iraq blasts Trump’s chief of staff: ‘I don’t recognize him’

    CNN chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta reports on a shocking admission by a retired general who had served with John Kelly in Iraq.

    “I don’t recognize Kelly,” the unnamed general said of President Donald Trump’s chief of staff.

    Kelly’s former colleague was also in disbelief over Kelly’s reported handling of the domestic abuse scandal involving top White House official Rob Porter, who resigned on Wednesday.

    “I don’t get it. As a former commander, he should know to distance himself from someone accused of something like this until the facts are published,” the retired general added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/retired-general-served-john-kelly-iraq-blasts-trumps-chief-staff-dont-recognize/

  5. It was just mentioned on ABC News that Turnbull only turned up for the last 15 minutes of the ‘breakfast’ this morning i.e. Wasn’t there to hear what others had to say during the general discussion.

    I wondered why Pat Dodson was very angry when the other participants were interviewed as a group.

  6. c
    ‘The Australian’ is quite shameless in its current full-bore support of Trump.
    Narcissists cause sane people to behave in a crazed fashion.
    Sheridan’s TrumpLove is an example of a normally sane, rational person taking leave of their senses.
    Sheridan has enough contacts globally to understand that Trump has single-handedly destroyed US soft power.

  8. Right-wing media embarrassed again after latest Page-Strzok message conspiracy theory blows up in their faces

    Right-wing media have once again been forced to reap what they sow by promoting stories based on out-of-context text messages sent between the GOP’s new favorite boogeymen.

    As CNN’s Oliver Darcy, a former editor at Glenn Beck’s TheBlaze, wrote on Wednesday, “members of the pro-Trump media acted like they hit the goldmine on Wednesday morning” when Fox News published an article and released an “alert” about a single text message.

    “The misleading messaging was delivered to millions of people through Fox News’ airwaves and through other pro-Trump media, which went into overdrive,” Darcy wrote, noting that the story was featured prominently on the Drudge Report, Breitbart and fringe right-wing sites like InfoWars and the Gateway Pundit.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/right-wing-media-embarrassed-latest-page-strzok-message-conspiracy-theory-blows-faces/

  10. Christopher Steele met with Mueller’s team for two days: report

    Steele, who compiled the dossier alleging ties between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, spoke with investigators behind closed doors as Mueller’s team dried to ascertain the veracity of those claims.

    The dossier sits at the center of a public battle over the Russia investigation. Republicans have claimed the Steele dossier was used by the FBI to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant on onetime Trump aide Carter Page. In fact, the FBI knew of Page’s ties to Moscow as early as 2014.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/christopher-steele-met-muellers-team-two-days-report/

  12. Colbert and John Oliver are rooting for a Trump-Mueller meeting: ‘He’ll perjure himself before he finishes his name’

    On January 24, Trump told reporters that he was “looking forward” to meeting with Mueller, and was even willing to testify under oath. Later that day, however, one of Trump’s White House lawyers walked back the president’s pledge. In the subsequent weeks, news broke that the president’s lawyers are attempting to bar him from speaking with the special counsel for fear he’ll perjure himself.

    “I don’t doubt that he wants to talk,” Oliver said, “but he’s going to have to physically get through his lawyers. He’s going to have to eat his way through their hands over his mouth, because they will tackle him to the floor before he opens his mouth.”

    “He would perjure himself before he’d finished his name,” the former Daily Show correspondent quipped.

    “I think he should do it,” Colbert responded, looking dead into the camera.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/colbert-john-oliver-rooting-trump-mueller-meeting-hell-perjure-finishes-name/

  14. Sane, rational people understand its successive Coalition and Labor governments that are responsible for the last decade of almost complete failure when it comes to Closing the Gap.

  15. Guardian:

    Jim Molan is speaking to 2GB.

    On Adam Bandt’s apology he says he thinks it is ‘flimsy’

    “I was deeply disappointed in the apology.”

    Molan, who had previously hinted he may sue, said he wants Bandt to “reconsider it”.

    “And I consider all my options to still be on the table and I am not accepting it.”

    Bandt picked up Richard Di Natale’s comments in the senate about Molan’s actions during the Iraq war, essentially intimating he was a war criminal.

    “If it had of been a contrite apology, I would have accepted it, but I don’t see the contrition.”

    He said Bandt had apologised to him in person, ‘about an hour and a half ago” and he believed there was a lot more contrition there, but said he “didn’t say I accepted it, I thanked him for the apology”.

  16. Pegasus

    Didn’t see you say that when Rundle’s complete beat up re ruckus in Batman and Alex Bhathal was bandied around here.

    I don’t have a Crickey subscription anymore so I wouldn’t have seen it. I only had one for a year quite some years ago.

    Kean and Rundle’s crap put me off Crikey to the extent I had my e-mail send it to the trash bin after about 6 months.

  17. Day 25, and the Greens Slime is up to their nasty smears again.

    Under Labor the gap started to close.

    Then the Coalition under Abbott, Turnbull and Scullion cut hundreds of millions in funding from Indigenous programs.

    In a little known strategic move they systematically destroyed not hundreds, but thousands of Indigenous organizations. These organizations were, typically, opportunities for Indigneous people to develop work skills and management skills, as well as vehicles for expressing Indigenous opinion.
    Further, they organized what was left of the funding to destroy dozens of remote communities, forcing people into places like Alice Springs with perfectly predictable results.

    In addition, in dozens of small ways the Coalition punished Indigenous people along with all people who are on welfare, need health treatment or depend on public schooling.

    CDEP workers are being fined relentlessly and ruthlessly.

    And now the Greens Slime is doing the Same Same smear routine.

    This is the same Greens Slime that totally ignored Indigenous priorities and set about doing a grandstanding a Massive National Campaign to BigNote the Bwana.

    The Greens used to have integrity. They don’t anymore. They are no better than Joyce.

  18. Molan has shifted the goal posts with practised ease.

    You don’t get to Major General and Chief of Operations without learning a trick or two.

  19. Molan still doesn’t get the difference between apologising for an allegation and withdrawing it. And this man was a major-general?

  21. a11

    I think he understands perfectly well.

    What we need is a Royal Commission into our last thirty years of almost constant warfighting. No doubt Fingers Hastie and White Hot Molan would be first in the queue to testify.

  22. Anyone who takes ‘prefered Labor leader’ polling seriously should go witness the idiocy of a British Election before speaking.
    The only reason Turnbull is preferred PM is because the Libs and the remaining trash would vote for him!.
    So the poll is pointless!.

  23. Re-posting from previous thread:

    Article by June Oscar and Rod Little, from National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples on Closing the Gap:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-08/closing-the-gap/9407824

    A decade ago, hopes were high for a new beginning when Australian governments united in a landmark statement that vowed to close the gap in life expectancy and health inequality faced by our nation’s First Peoples.

    Today, the damning reality is Australia is staring down the barrel of successive government failures that could deny our people, children and grandchildren a better future.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-08/rod-little-from-national-congress-of-australias/9407528

    Interview with Rod Little:

    Rod Little from National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples says successive governments have not listened to advisory board’s recommendations.

  25. When you start from Sheridan’s values and first principles he is rational. You might not accept the principles or the values, but that is a different matter.

    What Trump has done is cause Sheridan to be in conflict with his own values.

    This is a signature outcome of making a narcissist the Boss.

  26. Crikey has gone the whole hog.
    The entire Labor Party is about to do a Krakatoa.

    Having lived through R-G-R one must never underestimate the ability of Labor to eat itself.

    But damn you can taste the media’s desperation to make it happen can’t ya.

  28. On PPM, the Liberals and the Nationals would never choose Shorten. Murdoch has seen to that.

    Neither would the Greens because those addlepate Greens Slimes know that there is no difference between the Coalition and Labor.

    Neither would PHON for much the same reasons as the Greens.

    A good third of Labor supporters are not going to support a leader who is (either of) too left or too right for them.

    Essentially that means that it is extremely unlikely that a Labor leader would get close to gaining the lead in PPM.

  30. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-08/jacqui-lambie-in-war-with-dumped-candidate-steve-martin/9409090

    Jacqui Lambie says the gloves are off in a war with her Senate replacement, who she dumped from her party on Wednesday night.

    The former senator said she was hungrier than ever to return to the Senate after her replacement Steve Martin denied her request to stand aside and clear the way for her return.

    :::
    Alderman Martin has not ruled out joining another political party.

    Alderman Martin said he had received calls from other parties, including Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, to congratulate him.

    But he said it was too early to say whether he would join another party.

  31. V

    Who knows? Apparently there were a series of working agreements between various power centres and various powerful individuals and these working agreements are unravelling.

    IMO, it amazing that overt peace has lasted as long as it has after four years in opposition.

  36. Sheridan isn’t a Jesuit perchance BW?

    Is mental reservation only reserved for that kind of Catholic or can others indulge?

    Nothing about the Sheridan I am familiar with leads me to surprise at his Trump love. No more than I am utterly unsurprised by Southern Evangelical Republicans being his biggest fans.

    The principles and values they live by aren’t often in close alignment with those they espouse.

  39. Pegasus

    I’ve got a bit of sympathy for about to be Senator Martin.

    He does the hard yards to get up in the HC and then Lambie expects him to just stand down so she can try again?

    And then announces he’s chucked out of ‘her’ party via a press release …

  43. Having read Rundle’s piece in Crikey I think it’s mainly centred in the Beat Up category. There may be elements of factual analysis but, conspicuously so close to the Batman by-election, I detect that Green Grundle has located his bellows and put them to work.

    Jane Garrett should just defect to The Greens where her backbiting and plotting against the 2/3 of Victorian Labor that, it seems from the numbers in the article are not prepared to sign up with her band of misfits, would be more at home. They seem not to be convinced of this latest sally from her.

    There’s a lot of in the opinion piece, well, what if more of the larger Unions sign up with her? However, they haven’t and they are unlikely to. They would be well aware of what they are in for. Juvenile behaviour.

  45. Rex Douglas
    “”Another day another weak side-step from Shorten on Adani.””

    Hey Rex have you not something to do in the garden like spreading manure!.

  47. Boerwar @ #1997 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 4:49 pm

    V

    Who knows? Apparently there were a series of working agreements between various power centres and various powerful individuals and these working agreements are unravelling.

    IMO, it amazing that overt peace has lasted as long as it has after four years in opposition.

    This incessant navel-gazing by the Labor factions gives weight to the call for democratic reforms within the party.

  50. c@t

    She attempted preselection late last year to go into a safe upper house seat and fell short. A couple of those who were in her faction switched support to the other candidate. You gotta ask why

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