Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll resumes with the Coalition’s best result in ten months.

As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).

UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. C@t

    The residence of a candidate is only relevant to Nasty Party cheerleaders like Massola.

    This is not an election for local Mayor. Sure a good local candidate might be an asset but is there one available? Same thing applied with Bennelong where Keneanly was ably to hit the ground running while the factions would still have been counting numbers.

    The Greens will say they have a good local candidate, but she seems to be not that popular with some of her local members.

  2. lizzie @ #2443 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 2:51 pm

    Guy Rundle threatening Labor chaos in Crikey. Is this overblown? No idea.

    Bill Shorten’s Labor Party is being plunged into chaos at the worst possible moment and in the worst possible way – with a massive factional collapse and realignment in Victoria, Shorten’s power base, and the de facto seat of federal ALP power.

    Wish I knew more about that. Sounds interesting.

  3. What a misleading Fairfax headline: “Turnbull to deliver national apology to child sex abuse victims”

    In Parliament today? How silly of me to think so – it’s not planned until the end of the year and the story is really about Turnbull trying to force the States to hand over certain powers to the Commonwealth.

  4. Re Lamb:
    The HC is likely to accept evidence from Lamb that she is the daughter of her father who was born in the UK and hence, until renounced, remains a dual citizen. That is an entirely reasonable proof for the given purpose of s.44.

    The proposition that the UK will not accept Lamb’s assurance that she as the daughter of her father who was born in the UK absent a birth/marriage certificate in support is an entirely reasonable requirement of proof for the purpose of the UK determining whether Lamb was a citizen.

    There is nothing unusual for the law to require different levels of proof (i.e. different evidence) for proof of the same fact, depending on the nature and/or importance of the fact for the matter in hand.

    The UK is patently NOT a country from whom renunciation of citizenship is irremediable. Therefore the Constitutional imperative that enables a reading down of s.44 does not apply to Lamb.

    Therefore, whether or not Lamb took reasonable steps is irrelevant.

    Finally, the timing of the calling of an election and the closing of nominations is irrelevant to s.44. People who wish to stand for Parliament must renounce any dual citizenship. That is what s.44 requires. It follows people who wish to stand for Parliament should FIRST renounce and SECOND consider nominating, not the other way round.

  6. It’s good to see Massola is demonstrating a commitment to keep the people informed about their prospective representatives.

    – Labor candidate spends entire life in electorate until fairly recently when they moved to adjoining electorate – EXCLUSIVE! including search of property records (got to prioritise the important news eh J Maley?)

    – Coalition Deputy Prime Minister uses family as props in media, campaigns against marriage equality, is caught up in false accusations against rival of abandoning his wife, while having affair with staff member. Daughters driving up and down main street of Tamworth slagging him off during by election and everyone in the media knows all about it. – LABOR FACTIONAL CRISIS! (people’s private lives are off limits after all. Except where they live. That’s really really really important)

  7. SK

    I do think she can argue she followed the process to an end – until the requests from the UK became unreasonable…. that she took reasonable steps to renounced her claim to citizenship but the foreign power would not accept it.

    And would be more convincing if she continued to pursue it.

    Part 9 of the Qld Act provides the Registrar with discretion and for the applicant to appeal to the District court.

    Just stopping after the election is over doesn’t show ‘best endeavour’ … and there’s always another election coming right up.

  10. Every single time a Coalition MP or one of their hacks pops their heads up about Lamb they should (in an environment of fair and independent journalism) get a poke in the eye with “you voted against sending her and the rest of them to the HC and ending the whole debacle so STFU. No soup for you!”.

  12. QT on TV with sound off.

    Every time I look up there’s another one of the lightweight lying Libs standing up – Pyne, Hunt, Ciobo, etc.

    It must be their turn to waste an hour and a half today! 👿

  13. For once I agree with Siewart.

    She wants to stop the cashless card trial because it is only DAY 26 of the Massive National Campaign to change a date and the Greens Party is still holding conversations about that.

    First things first.

    At last we have a Greens Senator who understands that in the real world priorities matter.

    Talking about integrity and all that rassamatazz, have Waters and Ludlam paid back the taxpayer money they took by signing a false stat dec yet?

  16. Part 9 of the Qld Act provides the Registrar with discretion and for the applicant to appeal to the District court. Just stopping after the election is over doesn’t show ‘best endeavour’

    I agree with the second part. Not the first.
    If there is no reasonable reason she should have to produce that document (as Bongo says) then there is certainly no reasonable reason she should be apply to a district court to over-rule the Registry of BD&M refusal to give it to her. Especially as the whole marriage certificate thing is clearly traumatic for her.

  17. bc: You need to prove you are a citizen in order to renounce. If you fail to prove to the foreign country you are its citizen, why should the foreign country renounce your citizenship?

    My question is not rhetorical. It is important for the UK renunciation process to know what you are renouncing and what citizenship (if any) you might still have. If you cannot prove you have dual citizenship the UK will not renounce your UK citizenship.

  19. Why would anyone on the labor side have congratuated George Blimp after he used his valedictory speech to tip a bucket on Dreyfus and Gleeson. Good on you Doogie for not demeaning yourself.

  20. CTar1 says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 3:13 pm

    QT on TV with sound off.

    Every time I look up there’s another one of the lightweight lying Libs standing up – Pyne, Hunt, Ciobo, etc.

    Yes, very tiring QT with so much Lib ranting.

    Amy quite funny though:

    Dan Tehan gets the next dixer. Feel free to start delving into your own existential crises. You’ve got a few minutes.

  22. Is Bill Shorten preparing a plan B for Ged Kearney in the senate like he did Keneally ?

    Which current senator would he sacrifice ?

  23. The Age live coverage:

    A third question on Indigenous affairs from the opposition! It’s fair to say that it’s rare for Aboriginal issues to receive such a focus in Question Time.

  24. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-08/closing-the-gap/9407824

    A decade ago, hopes were high for a new beginning when Australian governments united in a landmark statement that vowed to close the gap in life expectancy and health inequality faced by our nation’s First Peoples.

    Today, the damning reality is Australia is staring down the barrel of successive government failures that could deny our people, children and grandchildren a better future.

  26. Windhover @ #2451 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 3:04 pm

    Re Lamb:
    The HC is likely to accept evidence from Lamb that she is the daughter of her father who was born in the UK and hence, until renounced, remains a dual citizen. That is an entirely reasonable proof for the given purpose of s.44.

    The proposition that the UK will not accept Lamb’s assurance that she as the daughter of her father who was born in the UK absent a birth/marriage certificate in support is an entirely reasonable requirement of proof for the purpose of the UK determining whether Lamb was a citizen.

    There is nothing unusual for the law to require different levels of proof (i.e. different evidence) for proof of the same fact, depending on the nature and/or importance of the fact for the matter in hand.

    The UK is patently NOT a country from whom renunciation of citizenship is irremediable. Therefore the Constitutional imperative that enables a reading down of s.44 does not apply to Lamb.

    Therefore, whether or not Lamb took reasonable steps is irrelevant.

    Finally, the timing of the calling of an election and the closing of nominations is irrelevant to s.44. People who wish to stand for Parliament must renounce any dual citizenship. That is what s.44 requires. It follows people who wish to stand for Parliament should FIRST renounce and SECOND consider nominating, not the other way round.

    I reckon we should adopt the Muslim process around this Citizenship debacle where you only have to repeat three times “I am not a Pommy Bastard’ and your citizenship is revoked.

  28. I reckon we should adopt the Muslim process around this Citizenship debacle where you only have to repeat three times “I am not a Pommy Bastard’ and your citizenship is revoked.

    Yeah, but everyone knows what lying bastards pommy bastards are. How could you be sure they meant it?

  29. It is good to see Labor and the Liberals taking Indigenous Affairs as being bit more than political cannon fodder for the Greens Messianism and an ego stroke for the Bwana.

  31. Greens Rachel Siewert has been campaigning for years on the cashless welfare card, including raising questions in Senate Estimates Committee hearings.

    https://greens.org.au/cashless

    https://greens.org.au/treaty

    The gathering of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leaders which culminated in the Uluru Statement from the Heart is one of the most important moments in modern history for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians. That’s why it’s such a shame that both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have ignored the statement’s call for treaty and an enshrined Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice within parliament.

    The Greens strongly support the Uluru Statement and stand with indigenous Australians’ demands for political leaders to take the next step and promote self-determination for our First Peoples.

    If the government really does listen to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, as it claims to, then it needs to commit to the process outlined in the Uluru Statement. It’s time for treaty and for a powerful indigenous voice inside parliament!

  32. Guardian:

    Statement from Adam Bandt

    Yesterday I made statements about Senator Jim Molan on Sky TV.

    Mr Molan has stated:

    “I would invite Mr Bandt to offer me a public apology…If he publicly apologised to me for the statements that he made, then that would end the problem.”

    I hereby apologise for those statements.

    *end statement*

  35. **I am not a Pommy Bastard**

    I will sing you a song and it wont take long
    ‘All pommies are bastards’.
    I will sing you the refrain and it goes the same
    ‘all pommies are bastards’
    …….

  36. Did Bandt apologize for making statements that the Date was more important than life expectancy differentials?

    What did he apologize for?

  37. lizzie

    Guy Rundle threatening Labor chaos in Crikey. Is this overblown? No idea.

    Rundle tends towards the ‘overblown’.

    (Earlier today I saw a story about a tourist balloon making a ‘hard landing’ on the outskirts of N-E Melbourne and wondered if you’d had the shot gun out to ensure you are getting ‘peaceful enjoyment’ of your block? 👿 )

  38. Pegasus @ #1940 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-08/closing-the-gap/9407824

    A decade ago, hopes were high for a new beginning when Australian governments united in a landmark statement that vowed to close the gap in life expectancy and health inequality faced by our nation’s First Peoples.

    Today, the damning reality is Australia is staring down the barrel of successive government failures that could deny our people, children and grandchildren a better future.

    A clear record of failure for Liberal and Labor Govts.

    They talked the talk but tragically failed the walk.

    A third party needs the balance of power to force real change in indigenous policy for the betterment of our first peoples.

  39. Rex Douglas @ Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 3:49 pm said:

    A third party needs the balance of power to force real change in indigenous policy for the betterment of our first peoples.

    I assume you mean the Greens and not any of PHON, LDP, JLN and AC? How about NXT (or whatever they’re called now)?

  40. CTar1

    Rundle tends towards the ‘overblown’.

    Didn’t see you say that when Rundle’s complete beat up re ruckus in Batman and Alex Bhathal was bandied around here.

  41. There is a fundamental flaw in s44 if an Aussie horn here who no one can prove they are other than an Aussie citizen may be ineligible to represent her country.

  43. mikeh

    Dan Tehan gets the next dixer. Feel free to start delving into your own existential crises. You’ve got a few minutes.

    Big 😆

  46. Barnaby probably will be wishing he could do the Muslin thing to sever ties with Mrs Joyce.
    Would be a lot less painful that what he may be facing.

  47. Jonathan Green:

    Media complicit in the rise of political trolls:

    https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=54592

    The problem is that routine reporting places charged hyperbole and downright falsehood on a level playing field with measured statements of fact. There are examples beyond measure of political media reporting cynical misinformation with the same sense of gravity it applies to rock solid fact: ‘there is a debt and deficit emergency, he said’, ‘the government, if re-elected will privatise Medicare, she said’.

    If politics — professionalised, knowing, cynically manipulative — plays on the press’s compulsion to report and thus validate the outrageous for purely political purpose, what responsibility does the press have for the consequences of that validation?

  50. SK

    If there is no reasonable reason she should have to produce that document (as Bongo says)

    Bongo = Paul Belgiorno?

    Didn’t hear or see whatever he said.

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