Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll resumes with the Coalition’s best result in ten months.

As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).

UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Boris
    I can definitely see Tassie as a win for Labor but a very tired and unpopular SA Labor getting in with Xs help would be a negative IMHO.

  2. Surely the SA Labor forming government would really have an impact only on SA voters’ federal voting intentions if at all. Next federal election probably isn’t going to be won or lost in SA so it probably wouldn’t really factor, right?

  3. More talk in SA of a Lib-Lab pref swap. X threatening to preference against all sitting members if that happens which would unleash total chaos.

  4. Diogenes,
    The ALP’s back to back states and territories control is becoming an increasing possibility…. but this time there is no Howie in Canberra, and so the chances of having the entire country, at all levels (state and federal) painted “red” is starting to look very likely…. If that happens, the premises for an evolutionary shift away from Neoliberalism and into a new Social Democracy will be set…. It will be then up to Labor (and to an extent the Greens) to take full advantage of this historical opportunity or blow it and be damned forever.

  5. 52 / 48…….all the leakage One Notion to Lib where it would have virtually all gone as prefs anyway.

    ALP doing viable policy. Libs doing tax cuts and piss on your head economics.

    Really, not much to worry about here. Not being complacent but this the BEST the Libs have done since April 2017…polling pretty solid people.

    And, contrary to an opinion expressed upthread, ESJ does add value here. Keeps us aware of what RW dickeads are thinking….or being told to say they think anyway.

  6. imacca @ #57 Sunday, February 4th, 2018 – 11:53 pm

    52 / 48…….all the leakage One Notion to Lib where it would have virtually all gone as prefs anyway.

    ALP doing viable policy. Libs doing tax cuts and piss on your head economics.

    Really, not much to worry about here. Not being complacent but this the BEST the Libs have done since April 2017…polling pretty solid people.

    And, contrary to an opinion expressed upthread, ESJ does add value here. Keeps us aware of what RW dickeads are thinking….or being told to say they think anyway.

    Yeah, and at least ESJ is sometimes witty, unlike Rex.
    And she does seem to know a bit of ALP history, albeit with a particular spin.

  7. “Naff off yerself! ”

    No….you first….with bells on!!!

    Sorry all. Have sought solace in a small tipple.

    Did myself a brain injury this eve by visiting Nuttertruckers and trying to work out some kind of rhyme and reason for the unwavering groupenthunk there that Trump is the messiah and that The Libs would have totally won the last election in a landslide if only they had kept Abbott as leader . Should know better. 🙁

    Did catch that new interview show earlier…Karvals the interviewer??

    I think the best that can be said is that try as hard as she could to be HARD, she left the person interviewed….untroubled. 🙂

  8. “Malcolm Turnbull has cemented his command over Bill Shorten as the nation’s preferred prime minister, ”

    And according to the same poll he would lose an election held now. 🙂

    Hmmmmmm…….is the Oz spinning or WOT!! Be interesting the next couple of weeks. Wont even speculate on what disasters await the Libs. Experience says expect the totally unexpected and even then it will be more weird than that.

  9. Diogenes says:
    Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 11:35 pm
    Boris
    I can definitely see Tassie as a win for Labor but a very tired and unpopular SA Labor getting in with Xs help would be a negative IMHO.

    X is a one-time Lib, as are many of his candidates. He is most unlikely to help Labor.

  10. Seems like Shorten goes backwards and Turnbull forward when they are absent from the media. I suspect that with Shorten in particular many have an idea that he’s a nasty factional back-stabber but when he is in the news they discover that they quite like him. And that conversely their positive perception of Turnbull takes a battering when they see him in action.

  11. Boris

    Perhaps Kev threatening to sue the nasty ABC was a negative for Labor in bringing him and his association with Shorten back into focus.

    KRudd’s entitled to challenge in court, of course, when he takes umbrage (in the past Turnbull thrown threats of litigation around like confetti) but it’s ‘unhelpful’ to say the least at the moment.

    He probably realises this because he’s gone very quite now.

  12. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    I think Bill Shorten would be happy to see the shakeout in the One Nation vote and where it was going to go to. Now he knows and can strategise accordingly and develop a campaign as the Underdog.

    I say, the Underdog, because Tony Abbott boasted that he could win a campaign for the Coalition from 52-48. So let the Coalition carry on like winners at 48, and with Turnbull as leader in the PPM stakes, the hubris will become unbearable. And that’s when Malcolm Turnbull becomes unlikeable and very mistake-prone. 🙂

    I know the Coalition think they are on a winner with the ‘condemn and attempt to humiliate Bill Shorten at every turn’, campaign strategy, but the people have already seen through that and are still marking Labor up on their policies, of which there will be more as the year goes on.

    Also remember the old psephological maxim, that the polling is a lagging indicator, so this poll is the one after Turnbull didn’t get a break and kept campaigning all through the break, while Bill relaxed, recharged and strategised. I think that fact will tell as we go on. Don’t forget, he’s a good 10 years younger than Turnbull. Also, Turnbull is about to be seen by the nation taking a knee in front of Donald Trump. 😉

  13. C@tmomma I think the difference is Turnbull tries to pretend he runs the show ( and pay for it). Shorten runs a team; and he seems to be very good at running a team.

  14. People who get so excited over ‘Albanese the preferred leader’ (especially the Press and some PB posters) need to remember that that is when Lib and other voters are included. Gamed by the Libs, I’d say.

  15. Jessica Walton‏ @JessHealyWalton · 18h18 hours ago

    Chronic pain spike. Can’t go to chemist to get panadeine, need prescription now. Can’t get to dr because pain. Call home dr. Booked out. Don’t sleep. Call home dr. Get prescription. Send partner. Chemist sold out due to change. A few days wait. Good job @GregHuntMP & TGA. Thanks.

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s Michelle Grattan’s take on the latest Newspoll.
    https://theconversation.com/encouragement-for-turnbull-in-newspoll-as-parliamentary-year-starts-91216
    Oh oh! More Chinese money – and the lazy $2m was to be funnelled to the Liberals.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-minister-the-money-and-the-mine-how-a-rotten-deal-was-hatched-20180202-p4yzbm.html
    Jess Irvine dives deep into the mechanics of government corruption.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/corruption-will-never-die-but-we-can-do-more-to-stamp-it-out-heres-how-20180203-h0t67v.html
    Urban Wronski – Arms deals, cabinet leaks and fake jobs figures reveal a desperate Turnbull government.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/02/04/arms-deals-cabinet-leaks-and-fake-jobs-figures-reveal-a-desperate-turnbull-government/
    Former NSW state rail CEO John Brew says that Sydney’s rail system has reached its limit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/metro-not-the-answer-to-sydneys-transport-woes-20180202-h0sqm5.html
    In a rather cynical contribution Ross Gittins says that next lection we will see a more genuine and wider choice.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/next-election-will-offer-voters-more-genuine-wider-choice-20180204-h0td58.html
    The citizenship fiasco will dominate Federal Parliament’s return in 2018 as the government and opposition seek to damage each other with calls for more High Court referrals, potentially triggering a fresh wave of byelections.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/citizenship-saga-to-dominate-parliament-s-return-amid-new-doubts-20180204-p4yzde.html
    The Coalition has been waging war against those who’ve dared to question it since 2013 says researcher Toni Hassan.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/coalition-efforts-to-restrict-influence-of-charities-go-too-far-toni-hassan-20180203-h0t66k.html
    If you don’t mind being alarmed read this!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/buying-bitcoin-at-20-000-risk-your-ass-handed-to-you-harry-dent-20180201-p4yz85.html
    Adam Gartrell tells us that Australian households could be paying as much as $430 more for electricity by the end of next year unless wholesale gas prices are brought under control.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gas-giant-bills-threat-price-hikes-of-up-to-430-predicted-20180203-p4yzd9.html
    The tale of classified government files handed over covertly to the ABC this last week has raised questions over who did what and why. Amongst long-time journalists and researchers reading the signs, Lee Duffield engaged in some detective-like thinking.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/cabinetfiles-who-got-the-files-together-why-and-how-were-they-handed-over,11164
    What a jerk is Speaker Paul Ryan!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/the-1-50-per-week-tax-cut-that-republican-paul-ryan-says-is-great-news-20180204-p4yzd7.html
    A group of prominent scientists and economists have issued a stark warning to the nation’s politicians: the Murray-Darling basin plan is failing to achieve environmental goals and is a “gross waste” of money.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/05/murray-darling-basin-plan-fails-environment-and-wastes-money-experts
    The Berejiklian government has given the developer of a proposed coal mine near Gloucester the unusual right to challenge the project’s refusal in court, an opportunity routinely denied mining opponents. What’s she playing at?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/preferential-treatment-rejected-coal-miner-granted-unusual-legal-rights-20180202-h0t23d.html
    The UK Guardian says that this Brexit mess cannot go on and Theresa May must stand down now. Can’t be any clearer than that!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/brexit-mess-theresa-may-tories
    What a pair!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christian-lobby-head-lyle-shelton-to-enter-politics-tipped-to-join-cory-bernardi-20180202-p4yzc3.html
    Police and fed-up local traders are pushing for a permanent alcohol ban along St Kilda foreshore trouble spots in a bid to end antisocial behaviour plaguing the area.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/police-join-call-for-permanent-st-kilda-foreshore-alcohol-ban-20180204-h0tefx.html
    Two Freemasons’ lodges set up for members of parliament and political journalists are continuing to operate secretly at Westminster.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/04/two-freemasons-lodges-operating-secretly-at-westminster

    Cartoon Corner.

    Three beauties from Mark David on the filing cabinets.



    Today Matt Golding has FIVE for us!





    Sean Leahy on Turnbull’s new secrecy legislation.

    Jon Kudelka on Shorten’s lurch to the left.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7f32a957f7e51ce58fae853f3e20912e

  17. Donald Trump Jr. Admits That The Memo Is A Revenge Plot Against Democrats

    Trump Jr. said, “The real problem I have had other than millions in legal fees and lots of time wasted and being smeared throughout the media. At least they uncovered this. What if they wouldn’t have. There is a little bit of sweet revenge for me and the family in the sense if they wouldn’t have done this, this stuff would be going on. This would be going on at the highest levels of government. They would be continuing to do it to my father.”

    The memo already had zero credibility, but Donald Trump Jr. lit the memo on fire when he spoke of it as a political document that his family reviews as revenge.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2018/02/04/donald-trump-jr-admits-memo-revenge-plot-democrats.html

  18. Eric Boehlert thumps GOP for memo hype: ‘They coordinate with Fox and Russian bots… and it’s still a dud’

    “A week ago Friday, Fox News and the GOP were pushing this idea there was a rogue enterprise within the FBI that was trying to undo Trump’s presidency,” he explained. “Turned out that was a joke text. And that kind of imploded. Everything they do is a joke, everything they do implodes

    “Everything Trump does points to he is panicked over what Putin has,” he noted. “He’s panicked over what Russia has and Fox News has become an incredibly important part of that.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/eric-boehlert-thumps-gop-memo-hype-coordinate-fox-russian-bots-still-dud/

  19. fwiw

    The govt will continue to look spivvy and shrill, and essentially superficial, avoiding the real issue, the cost of living, the living wage, while trying to distract with look over there bullshit like citizenship and racist whistles. Inaction on climate breakdown and renewable energy underlines the perception of yesterdays and luddites, beholden to rent seeking task masters.

    Labor will continue to develop a narrative which is already cutting through that they are the only ones prepared and capable of addressing the struggle to make ends meet, and see the future for the impending horror that it is, and it is America.

    Enough with the crumbs already.

  20. Cultural differences not understood by locals.

    The question of whether the Chinese billionaire hired Cr Lee because he was a mayor with connections to state public servants and others of influence, or, whether a benefit of $660,000 was fair consideration for buying an asset its owners wanted to offload, barely get a mention.

    Mayors in China can have considerable local standing and power and are often cultivated by businessmen. This, too, is ignored.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-minister-the-money-and-the-mine-how-a-rotten-deal-was-hatched-20180202-p4yzbm.html

  21. Ah, the Coalition and their legendary love of “free speech”.

    Companies risk being banned from federal building work if employees display the Eureka flag or union slogans on employer-supplied clothing and equipment, including mobiles and hard hats, under Turnbull government restrictions on workers showing support for the CFMEU.

    ……………Dave Noonan, the national secretary of the CFMEU’s construction division, said: “Based on this document, it would be OK to fly the North Korean flag, it would be OK to fly the ISIS flag, it would be OK to fly a swastika, but it would be forbidden to fly an Australian flag which represents the struggle for democracy and national independence.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/builders-risk-ban-over-eureka-flag/news-story/5cab8cbc47d7dcab007b43944a523dde

  22. > “People who get so excited over ‘Albanese the preferred leader’ (especially the Press and some PB posters) need to remember that that is when Lib and other voters are included. Gamed by the Libs, I’d say.”

    Albo won the ALP members section of the 2013 leadership ballot by 60% to 40% for Shorten.

    Also, this poll shows Shorten trailing Plibersek as preferred leader among *ALP supporters*:
    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7185-morgan-poll-preferred-leaders-liberal-alp-march-20-2017-201703171658

    There is no doubt that Shorten is not very popular among ALP supporters.

  23. My take on the latest Newspoll is that in reality the 52-48 reflects where sentiment in the community has actually been for the past 18 months. The only shifting sands have been from certain sections of the LNP base to ON and now back again. This has had the effect of artificially inflating the 2PP margin when these voters parked their vote with ON in protest, because most pollsters were distributing preferences according the preference split from the last election when in truth these ‘new’ ON voters were always going to vote LNP over Labor, regardless of whether that was as a primary or preference vote.

    Other than the LNP-ON-LNP shifting sands the Labor/Greens/Other votes seem set in concrete. At this stage the polling doesn’t feel like either 2001 or 2004, no matter how the Australian and other MSM commenatators try to spin it. If we are still at 52-48 after the next 2 Newspolls then my suspicions will be proven correct.

    However, 52-48 is not that far behind for the LNP at this stage, especially with a pre election budget to come. While nothing yet seems to show that Truffles can shift this underlying lack of support, I would not write off the power of a strengthening economy coupled with a massive middle class tax cut for the voters in the middle (those 9-10% of swinging voters) to do some awesome cognitive dissonance and come home to Malcolm at the death. …

  24. Post holiday bump (kinda) for Malcolm. Tones used to get them all the time (when a few people briefly forgot what a f…up he was).

  25. davidwh

    Sounds to me like you’re coming down with something.

    The ‘Monday morning wishful thinking’ bug?

    I’m sure a GP can fix this for you.

  26. According to AFR Rear Window, Laura Tingle is canoodling with Sam Neil! Yes, you read it here second. What happened to Alan Ramsey?

  27. Tetsujin

    It might seem irrelevant, but I would like to see Shorten with a little more flesh on his face. The ‘lean and hungry’ look is not as comfortable.

  28. antonbruckner11 @ #23 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 7:58 am

    According to AFR Rear Window, Laura Tingle is canoodling with Sam Neil! Yes, you read it here second. What happened to Alan Ramsey?

    Might soften her cynical pov, if so. Sam Neil is a lovely gentleman with a progressive mindset. Though I imagine they have found common cause over their love of the arts. If the Rear Window goss is true. 🙂

  29. ‘There is no doubt that Shorten is not very popular among ALP supporters.’.

    It would be interesting if there had been another ALP leadership vote since 2013. I bet Shorten would have done much better in the members vote.

    Possibly the Liberals are improving but based in history it is more likely a one off.

  30. Well, the tone of the ABC News I listened to on the radio in the car wrt Newspoll was that the improvement, if you could call it that, for the Coalition, was margin of error stuff. There was no detectable breathlessness in the reporting of the ‘improvement’.

  31. “People who get so excited over ‘Albanese the preferred leader’ (especially the Press and some PB posters) need to remember that that is when Lib and other voters are included. Gamed by the Libs, I’d say.”

    Not getting into Albo vs Shorten specifically.

    But in general, don’t you want a leader who does appeal to voters in other parties? i.e. one that can take people who would vote for another party and make them vote for your party?

  32. John Reidy @ #85 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 8:16 am

    ‘There is no doubt that Shorten is not very popular among ALP supporters.’.

    It would be interesting if there had been another ALP leadership vote since 2013. I bet Shorten would have done much better in the members vote.

    Possibly the Liberals are improving but based in history it is more likely a one off.

    I agree. Plus it’s interesting to see how so many supposed ALP supporters, but especially those who profess to support ‘Albo’, have bought the relentless ‘Kill Bill’, anti Bill Shorten propaganda promulgated by the Murdoch media, their simulacra in the ABC, and the Coalition government. People just refuse to look at Bill objectively. Instead they say he should do more of this, less of that, but never acknowledge the great gains he has made for the party since the debacle election of 2013. He’s not the ALP messiah that people seem to be craving, however, neither is he entirely as colourless, or as duplicitous, as he is exaggeratedly made out to be.

  33. But in general, don’t you want a leader who does appeal to voters in other parties? i.e. one that can take people who would vote for another party and make them vote for your party?

    So, it’s time for The Greens to dump Richard Di Natale then? 😛

  34. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-05/dual-citizenship-fiasco-ongoing-david-feeney-latest-casualty/9394820

    The dual citizenship fiasco is like the dying hour of a drunken Canberra dinner party.

    All the guests are pointing the finger at each other about who knocked over the bottle of Cabernet Sauvignon, staining the carpet of a moderately overpriced apartment, during a meandering argument about who is the most dinky-di Aussie.

    And while the blame game rages, self interest and political point scoring have distracted everyone from dousing the spillage with soda water and covering it with a mound of salt to mitigate any damage.

    ::::

    All the while, Federal Parliament remains without a full cohort of members, and the distraction continues.

    It’s a stain on the 45th Parliament that’s going to take a lot of work to remove. Maybe time to change the carpet.

  35. C@tmomma @ #84 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 8:14 am

    antonbruckner11 @ #23 Monday, February 5th, 2018 – 7:58 am
    According to AFR Rear Window, Laura Tingle is canoodling with Sam Neil! Yes, you read it here second. What happened to Alan Ramsey?

    Might soften her cynical pov, if so. Sam Neil is a lovely gentleman with a progressive mindset. Though I imagine they have found common cause over their love of the arts. If the Rear Window goss is true. 🙂

    Love that she sings in the choir at Chrissy etc. He’s hard not to like. Here’s he is at home (ABC and canned laughter alert)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGnt6LBrFJo

  36. Labor hasn’t had a leader contest back to back elections since 2001. Those polling obsessed posters who back strategys of changing leaders like changing underwear can take a hike.

    Also the minority government has Labor waiting for legislation to be passed through on an independents was electoral poison. No thanks. Labor best outcome is a majority government. Independents porkbarrell their electorates and wield too much power for their one seat in the house of reps.

    The trend has Labor ahead nothing has changed from this poll.

  37. VE

    “People who get so excited over ‘Albanese the preferred leader’ (especially the Press and some PB posters)

    I am not one of those PB posters.

    If I had been an ALP member, I would not have voted for either Shorten or Albanese.

  38. Pegasus

    Winning a seat in the Senate for a political party, then dumping that political party

    This a bit hard to have any sort of rule on.

    Some justified (mostly in small groupings) but not, I’d say in the Coalition, ALP or Greens where the parties ‘line and length’ well known?

  39. Morning all.

    I suppose when your party nominates child molesters and sexual predators for office, a new nazi and white supremacist is just run of the mill. Where on earth do the Republicans find these people!

    Arthur Jones — an outspoken Holocaust denier, activist anti-Semite and white supremacist — is poised to become the Republican nominee for an Illinois congressional seat representing parts of Chicago and nearby suburbs.

    “Well first of all, I’m running for Congress not the chancellor of Germany. All right. To me the Holocaust is what I said it is: It’s an international extortion racket,” Jones told the Chicago Sun-Times.

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/holocaust-denier-arthur-jones-republican-3rd-congressional-district-lipinski-newman/

  40. This election will be a good one to lose for Labor. Because the housing market will crash and bring on an economic depression similar to what Greece has suffered. That will keep the Coalition out of power for a generation.

  41. > “If I had been an ALP member, I would not have voted for either Shorten or Albanese.”

    The choice for members in 2013 was either Shorten or Albanese (or abstaining).

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