Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 55
1 2 3 55
  1. lizzie @ #49 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 8:35 am

    C@t

    Last year I watched a pseudo-doco on retired well-heeled ladies of Florida. In a group, I couldn’t believe how similar their faces were.

    I wonder what image of female beauty (sic) the plastic surgeons have – or maybe they hate women!!

    It’s a location thing. If you are a not so great plastic surgeon that just wants to run a production line, then you go practice in places like Florida. If you are good, you go to New York or LA and work on wealthy trophy wives like Melania Trump, or actresses and models.

  2. Socrates

    Yes the shift towards diesel engines is quite a worry.

    One reason why I stay relatively quiet here on the CO2 greenhouse stuff is because this is one of the many trade offs made to reduce CO2. So may environmentally conscious consumers switched to diesel, but the trade off has been increased urban air pollution particularly particulate emissions.

    The whole German fake testing data scandal was exactly for that reason. In order to get energy efficiency and reduce CO2, there were increases in the more traditional air pollutants that had been the concern of scientists in the 60s-90s. The manufacturers chose to fake data rather than deal with the problem

    I can only assume that the reason they got away with it was the collaspe of government vehicle testing labs.

    The fake data scandal was uncovered I think by some students more or less by chance.

  3. guytaur @ #51 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 8:37 am

    JoshButler: For those playing at home, this is two cabinet leaks in two days to the same ABC reporter, against two key conservatives – one damaging to Abbott (forever agitating against Turnbull) and one damaging to Morrison (endlessly touted as a possible Turnbull replacement) pic.twitter.com/Tq9tyIpNi5
    https://twitter.com/joshbutler/status/958091395675246592

    I noted as much yesterday when the first one came out. Also, as it had a sledge at Cormann, my thinking was that it was Julie Bishop trying to keep the Cormannator at bay in WA as he tries it on against her there, and to shore up hers and Turnbull’s positions against the Conservatives.

    You gotta laugh at the chutzpah of Morrison’s reply to the leak today. ‘I did it because National Security was always my first priority.’

    Of course, no one ever bothers to ask exactly how that was the case.

  4. janinegibson: Asked why Theresa May was not making the analysis public, a DExEU source told BuzzFeed News: “Because it’s embarrassing.” twitter.com/janinegibson/s…

  5. jboyded: Surprise #auspol twitter.com/JohnWren1950/s…
    JohnWren1950: My sources tell me there is a #Libspill brewing. 3 contenders; Dutton, Morrison & Abbott. Yesterday Abbott was smeared re blocking dole for under 30s. Today Morrison got the treatment. It’s pretty obvious Dutton is leaking against his rivals. #auspol #dysfunctional

  6. FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe, criticised by US President Donald Trump for alleged bias against him and in favour of his 2016 Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton, has stepped down as the agency’s number two official, sources and reports say.

    Mr McCabe had been expected to leave the Federal Bureau of Investigation in March.

    He will remain on leave until his retirement date, a source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because a public announcement has not yet been made.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-30/fbi-deputy-director-andrew-mccabe-steps-down/9372748

  7. Lenore Taylor

    After 30 years of environment reporting, on and off, it’s evident that the “deals” to end headline-grabbing environmental battles often aren’t enduring solutions at all, with the scrapping continuing away from the national public gaze.

    I’ve reported multiple deals that were supposed to end the Tasmanian “forest wars” for all time, for example, but the Liberal government is going to the 3 March state election with a plan to water down this agreed balance between conservation and logging after failing to legislate it during their last term.

    The allocation of water in the Murray-Darling has been disputed ever since we trekked with Bob Hawke to the tiny New South Wales town of Wentworth to hear him deliver the immodestly titled “world’s greatest environment statement”, but 29 years and multiple inquiries and “deals” later, water allocation is still in dispute and trust in the water-trading system is being undermined by allegations of poor administration and rorting.

    Restrictions on land clearing in Queensland were the main reason Australia met its initial greenhouse gas reduction targets, but they’ve since been reversed.

    The commonwealth’s main environmental laws were overhauled in the late 1990s after long national discussion, but two subsequent reviews have been largely ignored and governments stand accused of not using the powers that they have.

    And in recent years the challenge of climate change and Australia’s endless, fact-poor policy debate about how to respond to it has chewed up increasing proportions of diminishing journalistic resources.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/30/tackling-the-ever-growing-list-of-critical-environmental-challenges?CMP=share_btn_tw

  8. Guytaur, ‘It’s pretty obvious Dutton is leaking against his rivals. #auspol #dysfunctional’

    While reading it, my first thought was Trumble was behind it. On second thoughts, Dutton is more likely the villain as it is a little too sophisticated for Trumble to organise.

  9. Labor increasing its poll lead, Liberal party leadership aspirants leaking against one another, government announcements made on the run.

    Can mean only one thing – Bill Shorten is in trouble.

  10. Ironic if it’s Dutton leaking, that he has built on Morrison’s cruelty. If it’s a minus for Morrison, surely it must be a minus for him, too. (Unless the RWNJs don’t believe M went far enough.)

  11. Morning bludgers

    We copped a drenching yesterday evening and overnight, after days of hot and humid conditions. The heat was manageable,but the damn humidity, not so much. Not conditions that we in the south of the world are accustomed to!!
    WeatheronPB#

  12. Meanwhile the fiberals are doing distraction again. What is it they are trying to set up behind the scenes?
    Everytime, we are distracted elsewhere, they manage to do something that is detrimental to the interests of the many, and beneficial to the very few

  13. Re the poll

    I am very hesitant to make comment of Shorten , because by an large his small target strategy is a wise one, however I think he fluffed the Australia day one, if only because it is pretty insignificant as an issue.

    I think he COULD have come out with a well rounded statement that did not offend anyone, but instead lamely backed the current Australia day.

    Had he been a bit wiser he could have talked about the need to look at it if some are offended yada, yada. He could of course also have won many friends if he had made one of his”dad” jokes about it being NSW day. This could have set the scene for a change without antagonising anyone.

    Pity he fluffed it, but it is not a biggie because not many people actually care.

  14. FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe — a frequent target of President Trump’s ire dating to the 2016 presidential election — is stepping down as he nears the date in March when he can retire with full pension benefits, according to people familiar with the matter.

    McCabe’s departure has been expected. The Washington Post reported in late December that he planned to retire and use accrued vacation time to reach his eligibility date. Trump responded to the revelation with a tweet, writing at the time, “90 days to go?!!!”

    On Monday, people close to the matter confirmed that McCabe’s plan is unchanged. Technically, he will remain an FBI employee for the next several weeks, but he has left the deputy director position and is not expected back to work, these people said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fbis-andrew-mccabe-leaving-deputy-director-job-will-retire-in-march/2018/01/29/35b1bbd4-051c-11e8-b48c-b07fea957bd5_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_mccabe-112pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.38a90e96e883

    Some are speculating that once outside the tent he’ll be free to do the talk show circuit, write books about the Trump presidency etc. But I would doubt that. He seems much too professional for that kind of conduct.

  15. Guytaur

    Election season for SA and Tasmania. Not for the Feds.

    So far the Liberals have achieved a great deal of their agenda over the past 4 years which includes for eg……

    The car industry shuting down
    Medibank sold off
    The ABCC and ROC established
    Carbon price scrapped
    Privately contracted out part of Centrelink services

    They are now looking forward to implementing tax cuts.

  16. citizen

    Last night the 10pm radio news said blackouts had occurred in parts of Sydney. Are the usual suspects calling on Berejiklian to resign?

    it’s a challenge ‘Rex’ should take up! 😀

  17. Victoria

    I agree. A lot of work for Labor and other parties to do in undoing the mess.

    Glad Labor is starting with political donation reform and a Federal Style ICAC.

    Tackling inequality and due to the FWC decision on strikes I expect Industrial Relations reform has leapt to top of the list too.

  18. David FrumVerified account@davidfrum
    51m51 minutes ago
    Trump & House Republicans trying to do to FBI what Viktor Orban did to Hungarian judiciary

  19. Guytaur

    Unfortunately, as has been shown time and time again, Fair Work Australia is not really all that much better than the dreaded Workchoices. Can’t see things improving in that space in future.

  20. Fess

    The institutions of the US are still holding up, despite Trump and Co.
    Hopefully that will continue until this shit show is dealt with properly

  21. guytaur @ #59 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    jboyded: Surprise #auspol twitter.com/JohnWren1950/s…
    JohnWren1950: My sources tell me there is a #Libspill brewing. 3 contenders; Dutton, Morrison & Abbott. Yesterday Abbott was smeared re blocking dole for under 30s. Today Morrison got the treatment. It’s pretty obvious Dutton is leaking against his rivals. #auspol #dysfunctional

    Compare the pair:

    and

  22. Fess

    Interesting to see what happens with the Nunes memo.

    As I said previously, Nunes shenanigans are so transparent. It feels all part of a kabuki act.

  23. Victoria @ #79 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    Guytaur

    Unfortunately, as has been shown time and time again, Fair Work Australia is not really all that much better than the dreaded Workchoices. Can’t see things improving in that space in future.

    Because the Coalition decided, if they couldn’t scrap it, they could undermine it from within.

  24. Victoria @ #84 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    Fess

    Interesting to see what happens with the Nunes memo.

    As I said previously, Nunes shenanigans are so transparent. It feels all part of a kabuki act.

    I just hope that, if it does get released, the Democrats have already done their homework to disprove it with the truth and they release it at the same time to head it off at the pass.

  25. Victoria @ #68 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:19 am

    Morning bludgers

    We copped a drenching yesterday evening and overnight, after days of hot and humid conditions. The heat was manageable,but the damn humidity, not so much. Not conditions that we in the south of the world are accustomed to!!
    WeatheronPB#

    Victoria, I recall in the very early days of describing the effects of climate change, one simplistic description of one aspect of it was that the para-equatorial zones would expand. That is, in the most general of concepts, Brisbane would become more like Darwin, Sydney less temperate and more tropical like Brisbane, and likewise Melbourne less what it was (bleak?, no wish to offend, much 😉 ) and more humid and hotter.

  26. Well this is interesting. I thought he’d been planning to retire for some time. If he was pushed out prematurely then I reverse my opinion about whether or not he’d do talk shows and write books.

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    9m9 minutes ago
    Trump pressured for McCabe dismissal for months http://cnn.it/2DU2pIH @jeffzeleny reports @TheLeadCNN

  27. vic:

    I can see why you think that, but I just don’t think Nunes is smart enough to play double agent.

    He’s too arrogant for a start.

  28. A guy is taking 1-2 months of accrued leave before his previously scheduled retirement date.

    It’s barely news, much less the collapse of the USA’s major institutions.

  29. Desert Qlder
    “Can mean only one thing – Bill Shorten is in trouble.”

    Labor is only 8 points ahead. Bill is a terrible leader – he has to go! Who’s with me? Rex??!!

  30. So what does this all mean? “If it turns out that McCabe was pressed to accelerate his planned early retirement by a month or so by Sessions or on behalf of Trump, this would strengthen the argument for a pattern of obstruction of justice,” constitutional law scholar Laurence Tribe tells me. “But without proof of such pressure, this development isn’t likely to have major significance.”

    The main job for Congress now is to find out what happened. “It’s entirely possible that this was entirely McCabe’s decision, but given the president’s calls for his ouster and his constant meddling with the FBI and DOJ, we need to hear answers immediately,” says Matthew Miller, a former Justice Department spokesman. “Those answers need to come from Chris Wray, they need to come in person, and preferably they would come under oath to Congress. The president’s interference with law enforcement has infected the Justice Department, and we need to know whether this departure is a result of that interference.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/01/29/andrew-mccabe-is-retiring-early-heres-what-we-know/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.95e9b5135ca5

  31. kakuru @ #91 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    Desert Qlder
    “Can mean only one thing – Bill Shorten is in trouble.”

    Labor is only 8 points ahead. Bill is a terrible leader – he has to go! Who’s with me? Rex??!!

    I think your crew will be bigger than that. There’ll be Rex, Nicholas, ESJ, Oakeshott Country, and Pegasus! 🙂

  32. Itzadream

    I have always generally liked Melbourne weather compared to those north of us. I like the crisp autumn and winter. Spring not so much, and summer even less. But it was never as humid as it has been of late. The oppressive humidity of the past week, has been absolutely crap. I am quite happy for it to find its way back north again!!!

  33. ItzaDream @ #87 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:45 am

    Victoria @ #68 Tuesday, January 30th, 2018 – 9:19 am

    Morning bludgers

    We copped a drenching yesterday evening and overnight, after days of hot and humid conditions. The heat was manageable,but the damn humidity, not so much. Not conditions that we in the south of the world are accustomed to!!
    WeatheronPB#

    Victoria, I recall in the very early days of describing the effects of climate change, one simplistic description of one aspect of it was that the para-equatorial zones would expand. That is, in the most general of concepts, Brisbane would become more like Darwin, Sydney less temperate and more tropical like Brisbane, and likewise Melbourne less what it was (bleak?, no wish to offend, much 😉 ) and more humid and hotter.

    Here’s a really great description of the whole imbroglio in Melbourne over the past little while, including about why the blackouts occurred, plus a great description of how solar is affecting when blackouts occur and why:

    http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/power-cuts-in-victoria-as-melbourne-sweats-through-summers-hottest-night/527429

    #weatheronPB and politics 🙂

  34. Preet BhararaVerified account@PreetBharara
    17h17 hours ago
    Rule of law matters. Former Republican Governor Christine Todd Whitman, @GovCTW, and I announce a new task force in wake of Trump abuses with @BrennanCenter @USATODAY

    Trump abuses show we must turn traditions into laws: Bharara and Whitman https://usat.ly/2FrL5b7 via @USATODAY

  35. Fess

    Nunes is compromised as hell. He has been doing the bidding of the GOP from the get go. But his actions now are so transparent that it seems as if he is going through the motions and making it obvious at the same time.
    it is very strange to say the least

  36. Any Bludgers in Broome? The town has had just a tick over 400mm since 9am yesterday and it is still raining.

    Give me hot and dry anytime .

Comments Page 2 of 55
1 2 3 55

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *