ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

The first ReachTEL poll for the year records an improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s fortunes. Other news: Tasmania’s election will be held on March 3.

The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.

Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.

The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.

I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.

In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

738 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 10 of 15
1 9 10 11 15
  1. Fitness tracking app Strava gives away location of secret US army bases

    Data about exercise routes shared online by soldiers can be used to pinpoint overseas facilities

    Sensitive information about the location and staffing of military bases and spy outposts around the world has been revealed by a fitness tracking company.

    The details were released by Strava in a data visualisation map that shows all the activity tracked by users of its app, which allows people to record their exercise and share it with others.

    However, over the weekend military analysts noticed that the map is also detailed enough that it potentially gives away extremely sensitive information about a subset of Strava users: military personnel on active service.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/28/fitness-tracking-app-gives-away-location-of-secret-us-army-bases?CMP=share_btn_tw

  2. https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/01/29/russian-opposition-leader-arrest/?utm_source=Responsys&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20180129_TND

    Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was dragged from the street by police soon after joining a rally in Moscow against the upcoming national election.

    Hundreds of the anti-corruption activist’s supporters joined a nationwide day of protest against the authorities on Sunday local time, calling on voters to boycott what they said would be a rigged presidential election on March 18.

    The Trumpo-Putinist, dtt, might like to reflect that were she in Russia joining a popular protest against corruption today, as she did against the Viet Nam war in the 1960s and 70s, she would face arrest and summary imprisonment for political reasons.

    The simple fact is Putin is no more tolerant of dissent than are the mullahs of Tehran. Russia is run by despots.

  3. Don,
    How do the power companies know who has airconditioning?

    In Victoria when you install it the electrician is supposed to issue a certificate of electrical safety; it is a question on that document.


  4. Libertarian Unionist (Block)

    And, please, tell me again that PV will solve all our power problems.

    The issue was overloading of the distribution network. Only two solution install more stuff to have load control down to air conditioners. I think it should be the latter.

  5. lizzie:

    No i’m not a subscriber and sometimes I do hit a paywall. But about 95% of the times I click PvO’s column from his twitter feed I can access it.

    It’s the same with other News ltd columnists and even Laura Tingle’s column. I don’t know why that is, but it just works for me. I assumed it would be the same for everyone else.

  6. Libertarian Unionist (Block)
    Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 11:05 am
    Comment #428

    So who in Victoria is laughing at NSW and QLD for “gold plating” their networks now?

    Like everyone else Victoria has been replacing the ageing infrastructure.


    Just wait until there a few tens-of-thousands of EV plugged in at the same time. You’ll be celebrating the days the distribution networks don’t collapse.

    Air conditioning; solar cells and control of the customer usage would seem a good mix to me.

  7. I’ve found that Murdoch allows you to jump the paywall for many articles (including after a delay to let subscribers read them first).

    However some articles seem to stay paywalled.

  8. Air conditioning; solar cells and control of the customer usage would seem a good mix to me.

    I’m working on it 🙂

  9. Trump Admits That He Tweets From Bed Instead Of Running The Country

    Trump admitted that he only does his job as president during the day. In the morning and at night, he spends his time in bed tweeting.

    Reuters reported:

    When asked about whether he was lying in bed with his phone thinking of how to wind people up, Trump said: “Well, perhaps sometimes in bed, perhaps sometimes at breakfast or lunch or whatever, but generally speaking during the early morning, or during the evening I can do whatever, but I am very busy during the day, very long hours. I am busy.”

    According to Trump’s leaked private schedule, his very long hours run from 11 AM to 6 PM with hours of “executive time” built into the day, so Trump hours spent actually working vary from 4-6 hours per day Monday-Thursday. Trump likes to take off early on Thursdays do that he can go to one of his properties for the weekend.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2018/01/28/trump-admits-tweets-bed-instead-running-country.html

  10. Oh for the love of god can they go any lower ?

    Oh yes they can !!

    Lib-Lab now on a same-same unity ticket to make Australia a top 10 arms dealer shipping weapons to regions awash with crackpot war mongers.

    The destruction continues…

  11. Confessions @ #441 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 11:26 am

    This will set the cat amongst the free market pigeons in the GOP!

    Trump national security officials are considering an unprecedented federal takeover of a portion of the nation’s mobile network to guard against China, according to sensitive documents obtained by Axios.

    https://www.axios.com/trump-team-debates-nationalizing-5g-network-f1e92a49-60f2-4e3e-acd4-f3eb03d910ff.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twsocialshare&utm_campaign=organic

    But not Russia!?!

  12. A poll of England, Scotland and Wales puts ‘have another vote’ at 58:42 and Bremain at 51:49.

    Adding in Ireland (remainers in the original vote, and about to get screwed over with a hard border somewhere) would increase those numbers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

    A lot of work to go yet, but it looks like that particularly idiocy will be averted.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

  13. Trump national security officials are considering an unprecedented federal takeover of a portion of the nation’s mobile network to guard against China, according to sensitive documents obtained by Axios.

    Trump has made so many enemies abroad that they might need to nationalise businesses owned by Canada, France, UK, Germany and every African country, to name a few.

  14. billie says:
    Monday, January 29, 2018 at 11:06 am
    Don,

    How do the power companies know who has airconditioning?

    4. Google maps is used by authorities to inspect properties, most airconditioning units can be identified from the visual inspection

    ________________

    Really?

    Spot the airconditioner. It is there:

  15. lizzie says:
    Monday, January 29, 2018 at 11:33 am
    Darn

    What was your secret? I always have the same problem.

    Lizzie

    Sorry I have taken a while to get back to you. Been off doing other things.

    I don’t know if this is a fix for general use or a one off but it worked for me in this case. If you google BKs reference immediately below you will get the response which I have copied at the bottom of this post. You’ll know it by the little horizontal arrow beside it which doesn’t show up here. Click on that and you should get the article.

    /opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/economic-management-is-no-easy-pitch-for-the-coalition/news-story/2cfc6734400bf67db56466cc2d81cb03

    More for /opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/economic-management-is-no-easy-pitch-for-the-coalition/news-story/2cfc6734400bf67db56466cc2d81cb03

  16. Don

    Google Maps updates their satellite pictures in major metro centres about 1 a year.

    If you really want to measure changes from aerials I suggest Near Map who update their photos every 6 weeks or so. Plus they do higher quality at lower levels.

    Note – may be difficult for regional areas as generally they tend to not get aerials done as often/at higher resolution/clarity.

    Long story short – aerial may work for metropolitan areas (Sydney, Melb etc)

  17. Yassmin Abdel-Magied‏Verified account @yassmin_a · 2m2 minutes ago

    Alhamdulilah, I didn’t grow up in a war zone. But from a very early age, at the dinner table my parents talked about the money involved in the weapons industry, and how it was so tied into political power… and how that shit always rolls downhill.

  18. From today’s Crikey email:

    When Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull goes to Washington this week to demonstrate his doe-eyed fascination with Donald Trump, we’ll doubtless hear a lot about those tax cuts that are being funnelled into share buybacks (if you listen to CEOs and analysts) or creating trillions in investment and jobs (if you believe the Financial Review). But there’s a major issue that needs to be at the top of Turnbull’s agenda, even if he won’t discuss it publicly.

    Apart from Trump’s protectionist stupidity, which is risking a global trade war, one of the few clear policies of his chaotic administration is to cheapen the US dollar. And that is going to hurt the Australian economy, making the job of the Reserve Bank and Turnbull’s own government that much harder in the coming year.

    Apparently Mnuchin started a currency war with a speech in Davos.

    So problematic was the idea of the US Treasury Secretary talking down the globe’s reserve currency that it even penetrated the orange thatch of Trump, forcing him to contradict Mnuchin and talk the dollar up.

  19. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/privatisation-is-deeply-unpopular-with-voters-heres-how-to-end-it

    How refreshing that we are at least having the conversation about how to reverse the privatisation of government (read the peoples’) assets and put them back into public hands. What I’m still not clear on though is just how do you force a private company to sell its assets back to the government and how do you determine the price?


  20. Darn (Block)
    Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 1:19 pm
    Comment #484

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/privatisation-is-deeply-unpopular-with-voters-heres-how-to-end-it

    How refreshing that we are at least having the conversation about how to reverse the privatisation of government (read the peoples’) assets and put them back into public hands. What I’m still not clear on though is just how do you force a private company to sell its assets back to the government and how do you determine the price?

    Cause a recession by pulling money out of the economy (balance that budget is supported by many). Put the money back in by buying up the asset in question.

  21. The present electricity blackouts could more credibly be blamed on privatisation rather than renewables.

    A responsible government owned entity can appeal to people to reduce their usage in times of crisis. A privately owned entity puts money over the public good.

  22. Ides of March not.logged in says:
    Monday, January 29, 2018 at 1:00 pm
    Don

    Google Maps updates their satellite pictures in major metro centres about 1 a year.

    If you really want to measure changes from aerials I suggest Near Map who update their photos every 6 weeks or so. Plus they do higher quality at lower levels.

    Note – may be difficult for regional areas as generally they tend to not get aerials done as often/at higher resolution/clarity.

    Long story short – aerial may work for metropolitan areas (Sydney, Melb etc)
    ____________________
    Thanks IOM.

    For Billie:

    Here’s one from Sydney.

    Billie, Which of the buildings have a/c and which do not?

    Or, Billie, choose your own google earth or google maps image, since that is what you specified.

  23. Darn @ #483 Monday, January 29th, 2018 – 1:19 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/29/privatisation-is-deeply-unpopular-with-voters-heres-how-to-end-it

    How refreshing that we are at least having the conversation about how to reverse the privatisation of government (read the peoples’) assets and put them back into public hands. What I’m still not clear on though is just how do you force a private company to sell its assets back to the government and how do you determine the price?

    Same way a government tells you they want to buy your biggest asset, your house. They say, here’s the price, now give it to us!

  24. Apparently Mnuchin started a currency war with a speech in Davos.

    The vain fool publicly stated that he believed in a Weak Dollar.

  25. Don

    Had a quick check on NearMaps.

    Armidale – high quality maps but only from 2015.

    Tamworth – high quality maps from late 2017.

  26. 7 News Brisbane‏Verified account
    @7NewsBrisbane

    The Federal Government will loan $3.8Bn to Australian companies to assist in arms exports.

  27. @Wewantpaul – to deny any similarities between Labor and the Liberals would be exactly as dumb as to deny any differences.

    Having successfully offended everyone here, *smoke bomb*

  28. “@Wewantpaul – to deny any similarities between Labor and the Liberals would be exactly as dumb as to deny any differences.”

    Except I wasn’t denying similarities at all. Both Labor Liberals and dare I say it the greens share a broad common consensus over many things, that is not at all in anyway remarkable. On the contrary it is to be expected. Your job as a voter, your only job, is to evaluate which of the candidates is better, ie to notice where they are different and choose which differences you like. It is just lazy and dumb, or dishonest to say ‘oh they are all the same’. They are not all the same.

  29. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 4m4 minutes ago

    Global arms sales is the area of legal business most subject to corruption. Researcher and former oil industry executive Joe Roeber, in Parallel Markets (2005), estimated that 40% of corruption in international trade was related to the arms trade.
    Top business to be in, Mr PM.

  30. Don not sure what value there is in continuing this discussion.

    You have been told electricians report when they install air conditioning
    When you apply for house insurance you report whether you have air conditioning

    Town planners etc pay for their Google maps and other mapping software and it has many more features than the free version

  31. darn / lizzie

    I had no problem with Win10 and chrome using an ‘igcognito window’ and peter-van-onselen/economic-management-is-no-easy-pitch-for-the-coalition’ as the text.

    lizzie – A subscribe to message appeared with the article in background. The message had a close ‘X’ as part of it. Once closed the full article became readable.

  32. lizzie – A subscribe to message appeared with the article in background. The message had a close ‘X’ as part of it. Once closed the full article became readable.

    Yes I always get this too, but I just assumed lizzie would know she can click the X in the top right hand corner and be able to access the article.

Comments Page 10 of 15
1 9 10 11 15

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *