Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. I wonder whether the population of South Australia will come to its senses and vote Greens en masse this election?
    Or will they stick to the old single figure tango?


  5. Boerwar (AnonBlock)
    Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 8:03 pm
    Comment #3335

    frednk
    You confuse me. Are you saying that the Greens Economic Plan to increase the money supply to infinity will work?
    Or what, exactly?

    Just point out most money is no longer printed.

    But since you ask. All money is created by the state. But “wealth” has to be balanced by the money supply otherwise you have asset inflation; been a lot of that wouldn’t you say. Money supply doesn’t create wealth; people not working create no wealth; and wealth doesn’t create a money supply. Full employment creates the maximum wealth; but if you create wealth and don’t increase the money supply you have asset deflation. It all has to be carefully managed. Borrowing money back after it has reached private hands is all part of that management.

  6. I’m surprised that after the brain fart that is the underwater fan to ‘cool the reef down’, that some bright spark in the Tourism Industry/LNP axis of evil, hasn’t suggested simply painting the coral with waterproof paint the colours it used to be!

    That was my suggestion last week!

    And it is crazy enough that it is likely to be seriously considered by the people bringing you the underwater fans.

    A true story: When I was little, my grandparents had a glass display case with real coral in a variety of colours (not in water). It wasn’t until some time later I learnt that the coral had been painted. Perhaps there was an industry then poaching coral and then painting it for sale.

  7. C@tmomma

    Early on I read from people that are supposed to know that a major side effect will be some serious asset inflation. Well what ho . what luck for the already bloody wealthy. For the already asset poor ? As ma Sheela said.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YahDLTODDg

    Quantitative easing to this total non economically edjumacated peasant did and still sounds like firing up the printing presses.

  8. Evening all.

    A fantastic interactive of the Trump-Russia investigation, listing:

    The 270 people connected to the Russia probes

    https://www.politico.com/interactives/2018/trump-russia-investigation-ties/

    The vast majority are Team Trump people, with a handful of Democrats. It also shows which people are of interest to Mueller and/or to Congress. Interestingly only 2 of the Dems on the list are of interest to Mueller (Clinton and Podesta), whereas they are unsurprisingly mostly of interest to Congress. The reverse is true for Trumpers.

  9. Whilst not fully convinced myself about MMT, this lecture by Ade Edmondson… sorry Steven Hail has some interesting graphs and data. Perhaps those who take time to criticize Nicholas (my lurking goes back quite a long way) should perhaps find out what MMT says – hint no wheelbarrows of cash to buy a loaf of bread and no printing presses.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBpm5sVmG

    hmmm link appears not to work. Too much lurking not enuf posting.

    Look up on Youtube Steven Hail’s presentation on modern money and the “budget emergency”

  10. At the end of a long, hot Climate Change day, thanks to those who answered my queries about using a mobile hotspot in lieu of a conventional internet connection.

    The gist, I think, was that it should be used for emergencies only, and would be hellishly expensive if any kind of large downloads were anticipated.

    So I will do just that: keep it simple for as long as it takes to get a good NBN connection, no movie downloads and look around for deals.

    Thanks to all again who answered. Very valuable input indeed.

    Cheers, BB.

  11. Quantitative Easing is a purely monetary operation, not a fiscal operation. QE does not change the net financial assets of the private sector; it is merely a portfolio swap in which the central bank uses keystrokes on computers to replace some bondholders bonds with an equal amount of reserves.

    When there is not enough demand in the non-government sector to employ everyone who wants to work, the currency-issuer needs to increase the net financial assets of the non-govt sector. This is a fiscal policy operation. Nothing to do with QE. QE cannot address the problem of a gap between the current level of aggregate spending and the level that would be consistent with the economy operating at full capacity (all available real resources, including labour, being used). That is why QE has achieved nothing.

    MMT economists do not advocate QE. One of their conclusions is that monetary policy is generally a very weak lever for influencing economic outcomes (output, employment, inflation). Fiscal policy is much more powerful and precise than monetary policy.

  12. Pegasus says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 7:18 pm

    Australia Day will likely survive because of its seasonality. As a summer public holiday supporting some modest civic activity and public spectacle, it retains the backing (and money) of government and of a still considerable and powerful section of civil society. And it remains a popular occasion for social gatherings.

    No, it will not survive. It is on life support, and the plug will soon be pulled. It is no longer a popular occasion for social gatherings. It leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

    For mine, I have given up on Australia Day.

    I have a very fine flagpole, a gift of my best friend, now deceased, on which most of the time I fly the Australian flag. I have a wide range of other flags which I put up from time to time, including the pirate flag on my birthday. I am a great fan of the Arthur Ransome series of books on Swallows and Amazons.

    If there were a decent replacement for the official flag, I would fly it.

    Sadly, one of the best flags ever is the US flag. A superb design, with a wonderful history.

    But I will not fly it (though I used to) while Trump is president.

    But I have stopped celebrating Australia Day on 26th January.

    Previously, we had the people of the local area round for a breakfast of pancakes and sausages. Good times. Lots of arguments and laughter.

    No longer. It now has no meaning for me.

    In similar fashion, I no longer celebrate Empire Day, nor Guy Fawkes Day, nor Anzac Day, nor the Queen’s Birthday.

    Waitangi Day is worth celebrating. There is a country which has its act together.

    Why can’t we have our version of Waitangi Day?

    Trouble is, we need a Waitangi Treaty, which is not likely any time soon.

  15. On the subject of WiFi.

    We were on our way south from Perth two years ago to visit rellies in Margaret River, and stopped at a motel.

    We asked the proprietor what the password was for free wifi, and he told us it was not free – and gave us a lecture on how we should not expect everything for free. I asked him if the toilet paper was free, and he was not impressed.

    So we paid for the minimum wifi available, and the password for same. We were given half an hour, we figured it was enough for checking emails and so on.

    Tried to log on, no luck. Nothing worked. Then we just clicked on Chrome, and we were in. And stayed in, both laptops, full access, no names, no pack drill. For as long as we wanted, and again in the morning before we left.

    Somebody had hacked his system, and left it open for anyone to access, for as long as they wished.

    Made my day.

  18. Rowe brilliant as always, and so much to see. The barnacles, the tax cuts still valiantly hanging in there. Turnbull still keeping his head above water. Just. Abbott faux lord and master of all he surveys (ie not much).

    Thanks for sharing mari! And I hope you’ve been well.

  21. I’m reluctant to bring this up again after yesterday’s effort, but another angle to the revealing of death threats is that it possibly signals to teens that they aren’t alone in being bullied online and even adults and esp public figures endure this kind of abuse.

    Sky News Australia
    16 mins ·
    Sky News host Janine Perrett: As a child, I don’t think I could handle today’s bullying on social media. I don’t know how, young girls especially, go through that bullying online. bit.ly/2DuezIK

  22. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    10h10 hours ago
    Thank you to Brad Blakeman on @FoxNews for grading year one of my presidency with an “A”-and likewise to Doug Schoen for the very good grade and statements. Working hard!

    Hang on. I thought he was busy working and not sat around watching TV while the govt is in shutdown crisis.

  24. Hang on. I thought he was busy working and not sat around watching TV while the govt is in shutdown crisis.

    He’s a baby, who craves praise, even if its from some nobody on Fox News.

  25. Fess,
    As bad as this online bullying is; the girls who come out the other side are going to be tough as nails. I hope they take the bullies and their culture apart and reduce it to kindling.

  26. Puffy:

    On women standing strong there was an excellent article in one of the news outlets over the weekend about the record number of women running for election in the 2018 mid-terms.

    A wonderful ‘up yours’ to the sexism and misogyny Trump seeks to sow in American culture.

  32. don
    no christmas, no easter – only labor day and new year – bit slim celebratory calendar – but i bet you take the time off work (or once did)

    i agree we need a new calendar – sure easter and christmas will stay there
    what else would you have?


  34. Boerwar (AnonBlock)
    Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 9:38 pm
    Comment #3367

    Free money. Works every time.

    Did you watch the video or are alternative views too dangerous.

  35. geoffrey

    The dirty little secret is that 90% do not give a fluck about the date or name. The care factor is about having a day off from the ‘salt mines’ .

  38. — – The 270 people connected to the Russia probes – —

    I been thinking.

    I reckon have noticed a slight change in the way senior republicans have been responding to Trump. I am sure I saw McConnell slyly suggesting the shutdown was due to Trump being hopeless. And, although not averse to having a swipe at Trump, Graham has been quite vocal in his criticism recently.

    Now both of these chaps have an axe to grind wrt Trump. But also, both would have a pretty good idea of how the FBI investigation is going.

  40. Confessions

    It was a tragic day here when the Australia Day holiday was made the actual day rather than the following Monday . No wonder the ‘bosses’ pushed for it, 2/7 times it fell on a weekend. 🙁

  41. I say nothing other than this is THE most popular story on The Guardian Australia website tonight:

    My wife always climaxes during foreplay, leaving me feeling as if I am just servicing her

    😳

  42. I can’t see a time when either people with views right or left will become extinct. It would probably be a boring world if we were all part of some species groupthink.

  44. ** can’t see a time when either people with views right or left will become extinct.**

    I certainly dont want people with ‘views right’ to become extinct. I just want them to become rational.

  48. poroti @ #3032 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 7:44 pm

    Confessions

    It was a tragic day here when the Australia Day holiday was made the actual day rather than the following Monday . No wonder the ‘bosses’ pushed for it, 2/7 times it fell on a weekend. 🙁

    I really don’t recall as a kid growing up celebrating Aus Day. The bicentenary certainly was a big thing at school, but other than that I have no recollection of Aus Day being a thing.

  50. ‘North of the Tweed’

    Just in case you were mistaken about the border – there is still large chunk of NSW north of the Tweed.

    For example, most of Mur’bah and all of Mount Warning.

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