Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 67 of 69
1 … 66 67 68 69

  1. CTar1 says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 6:46 pm

    On them cordoning off beach areas I object to those that make the great unwashed walk around the back of them.

    The public should be able to walk through on the beach front.

    The principle in Australia is that all land below the high water mark is Crown Land and accessable to the public.

    That is the law simplified in one sentence, of course there is case and statute law to support that and leasehold exceptions have been granted.

  2. Boerwar,

    Recently you spat the dummy and demanded an apology accusing others of verballing and lying re your position…..

    I have not stated an opinion re change the date nor am I going to.

  3. Rising and continuous inequality – the outcome of 2 decades of Coalition and Labor government policies.

    Yep. We need non-neoliberal economic policy that prioritises social and environmental outcomes rather than discredited dogmas about the superiority of market mechanisms.

  4. Peg
    Not to worry.
    The White Man’s Burden is never wrong so my expectations were zero.
    How is your personal plan to swap your home with a family living on the bed of the Todd going?
    That way you can have endless real life discussions with Indigenous campers on the No 1 priority for a Massive National Campaign.
    Or has the Bwana discovered that his victims are not all that keen on the self-indulgent whitefellas enjoying their culture wars?

  5. Paul Bongiorno on Australia Day:

    https://theconversation.com/why-australia-day-survives-despite-revealing-a-nations-rifts-and-wounds-89768

    Australia Day will likely survive because of its seasonality. As a summer public holiday supporting some modest civic activity and public spectacle, it retains the backing (and money) of government and of a still considerable and powerful section of civil society. And it remains a popular occasion for social gatherings.

    But as it becomes ever more entangled in battles over the meaning of our history, Australia Day will find it difficult to carry a “successful” national day’s normal civic burden of fostering common belonging and social cohesion.

  6. Nicholas
    I understand that all a Greens Government needs to do is to buy some more printing presses to print as much money as you want. Should be a doddle. It has never worked in the entire history of money but when the Bwana sprinkles some pixie dust on the economy it should all be good.

  7. Anyone want to hazard a guess on the funding required to fix the reef?

    You’d have to buy a fair bit of farm land to stop the runoff. Redirect stormwater from towns & cities. Knock all the polluting industries & mining on the head.

    I’m guessing trillions so the reef will more than likely die, how soon who knows.

  8. Pegasus @ #1694 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 7:18 pm

    Paul Bongiorno on Australia Day:

    https://theconversation.com/why-australia-day-survives-despite-revealing-a-nations-rifts-and-wounds-89768

    Australia Day will likely survive because of its seasonality. As a summer public holiday supporting some modest civic activity and public spectacle, it retains the backing (and money) of government and of a still considerable and powerful section of civil society. And it remains a popular occasion for social gatherings.

    But as it becomes ever more entangled in battles over the meaning of our history, Australia Day will find it difficult to carry a “successful” national day’s normal civic burden of fostering common belonging and social cohesion.

    I think we need a postal survey.

    Q. Should Australia Day be moved away from Jan. 26th ?

  9. Boerwar,

    Not to worry. Ten (?) years of reading your posts here, I periodically anticipate what your latest obsession will be, for example pre-2013 fed election when you were rooting long and hard for the Informal Party.

    I always appreciate your creative flare and the erudition with which your express your opinions over and over and over and over and…

  10. iMacca – the variable bypass engine upgrade for the P&W F135 Engine in the F-35 is likely to produce an engine capable of over 45,000lb of thrust in afterburner mode (with a 10% reduction in fuel burn) and over 32,000 of day thrust with even greater reduction in fuel burn. Enough to give the F-35 a genuine supercruise capability, a much quicker transonic acceleration and also effectively eliminate the limitations with all fixed air inlet planes and thus increase maximum flight speed past Mach 2 … due out in 2019. Exciting indeed

  11. **Q. Should Australia Day be moved away from Jan. 26th ?**
    If Yes, it would be followed by another postal survey asking which of the other 364 days should it be on. Followed by another postal survey offering a choice between the top 5 nominated from AusDay Postal Survey No2.

    A twist on the term ‘Going Postal’.

  12. Postal survey “Q. Should Australia Day be moved away from Jan. 26th ?”

    I think we’d need to specify an alternative date first.

  14. “Enough to give the F-35 a genuine supercruise capability,”

    Hmmmm……….suspect airframe issues rather than raw thrust may be a limiting factor with that?? But entirely possible limited supercruise / increased dash speed endurance?? Useful for giving and AtA missile a bit more of a boost if nothing else. From an engineering perspective some of the stuff in the near term development pipeline is really interesting and i believe the new engines are being designed as a drop in replacement for the F135. Think i read somewhere that it may not even be a whole new engine, but an upgrade kit for the F135.

  15. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 7:20 pm

    Anyone want to hazard a guess on the funding required to fix the reef?

    You’d have to buy a fair bit of farm land to stop the runoff. Redirect stormwater from towns & cities. Knock all the polluting industries & mining on the head.

    I’m guessing trillions so the reef will more than likely die, how soon who knows.’

    The only thing that will save the Reef is stopping global warming, stopping the process of acidification of the oceans, stopping rising sea levels, and possibly a Massive National Campaign by the You-Know-Who when they shift Straya Day.

    There are areas along the Queensland coast where there is a lot of natural acid in the subsoil. With clearing, and the digging of drains, there are flushes of large amounts of acidic water into the Reef lagoon. Stopping this is worth doing. But giving farmers a tax deduction for land clearing and then paying them to control the direct consequences is poor policy. (There goes $37 million of the $60 million).

    There is considerable scientific doubt about the efficacy of current attempts to manage COTS outbreaks by direct injection. The scientific problems go not to the method itself but to how the population dynamics of COTS really work. There goes most of the rest of the money. (Again this money is being funneled into Coalition pal organisations.

    Of the other stuff, most of it is brainfarts uncannily like Turnbull’s venture into rainmaking.

    The Big Lie in Turnbull’s announcement is that the Reef is alive and resilient. The truth is that half of it is dead and each time it gets whacked by bleaching and by coral death, less and less of the original Reef remains. When 200 year old individual corals die, then you know that the rules that applied when The Invasion commenced no longer apply.

    Possibly the single most significant piece of research that is happening is attempts to breed coral varieties with heat-resistant qualities.

    The fact that the Government is putting money into this tells you everything you need to know.

  16. No amount of money will “save the reef” unless anthropogenic global warming is successfully tackled; in my opinion, not very likely. A nice January summer day here in Marble Bar, only 43.6.

  17. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 7:32 pm

    Of course the Liberal’s destruction of the reef is a work in progress, dismantling Gillard’s marine parks.’

    Yep. Hunt and Frydenberg, Abbott and Turnbull will be the names forever etched in the plinth to the Dead Reef.

  20. Postal survey:

    Which of the following are the top priorities for (a) restitution of the hundreds of millions in funding that was allocated under RGR and (b) a massive increase under the Turnbull Government:

    1. Health
    2. Housing
    3. Employment
    4. Business development
    5. Youth Support
    6. Justice system.
    7. Development of a Treaty.
    8. Shifting the date for Australia Day.

    The Bwana and his White Man’s Burden have succeeded in allowing Turnbull, Dutton and Scullion to avoid talking about their culpability for the lack of progress of 1-7 while they and their whitefella Greens culture war buddies wank on about shifting a date.

  21. rossmcg
    Creeks still running up there after the rain?

    Sure are (Shaw R). Road to Hedland only opened Saturday afternoon. Shaw was a bit over 200mm when I went in to shop yesterday. Coongan still across the road, but only a few inches. Sandy Creek through town has just stopped running.

  22. Steve777 @ #1701 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 7:30 pm

    Postal survey “Q. Should Australia Day be moved away from Jan. 26th ?”

    I think we’d need to specify an alternative date first.

    A new date (any other day IMO) can be determined by the Govt at a later date.

    The substantive issue is the moving of the day away from the date of hostile invasion.

  23. Here’s an interesting quote:

    In return, the Christian Democrats effectively were reportedly promised that the number of refugees coming into Germany would be far lower.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/21/opinions/german-coalition-merkel-europe-matt-q-opinion/index.html

    Normally you’d expect a Christian party to be pro-helping-of-refugees. When did “Christian” start to mean “insular selfish nationalistic ass”? I thought not being that was supposed to basically be their thing.

  24. bw

    Yep. Hunt and Frydenberg, Abbott and Turnbull will be the names forever etched in the plinth to the Dead Reef.

    Shame but they or their like will still be voted in, maybe not next term but in the future. The Australian population is apathetic, selfish with little regard for environmental loss.

    I however will join you at the unveiling of said plinth to the Dead Reef.

  26. ‘briefly says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 7:48 pm

    https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/money-supply-m3

    Money is only ever printed these days…seemingly without any problems. This is as true in the EU as it is in the US, the UK or our own local monetary well.’

    Nicholas keeps telling us that the Greens Government will print its way out of trouble. So clearly the old parties are not printing enough of it. Here we have the Greens’ economic management paradigm:

    https://www.google.com.au/search?q=images+of+inflation+money+in+a+wheelbarrow&client=firefox-b&dcr=0&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=Z5yI3AC3fWyTmM%253A%252CLypE5VFixyj8hM%252C_&usg=__aUZhOr9b-5Ljc8waYg5_zQWx1TA%3D&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjY6q3DmOvYAhWIfLwKHY3KDyAQ9QEIKTAA#imgrc=Z5yI3AC3fWyTmM:

  27. Where did Peg go? On a bus off to the banks of the Todd to discuss changing the date for Australia Day as the Number one Indigenous national priority?
    Well done, Peg!

  28. Imacca – for cost reasons the F-35 was not initially designed for supercruise, but the airframe is so slippery that once supersonic speeds are obtained via the usual afterburner route it can sustain supersonic speeds on day thrust for over 120nm with the current engines – so there are no airframe issues.

    Phase one of the upgrade program is not a whole new engine – you are correct. It’s already been tested and is good to go in 2019 and will be rolled out across the fleet in 2020. which means that the first 15 of Australia’s order in full production mode will come with the upgraded engines when delivered in 2020 and the 18 planes we are due to receive before then will get the upgrades at the time of their first scheduled engine rebuilds in the early 2020s.

  31. Good evening all,

    Linda Burney was very adamant this afternoon on RN drive that Di Natalie should focus on the front line issues confronting indigenous Australians rather than playing politics with his “change the date” rhetoric.

    But hey, what would she know. She is only the first indigenous female member of the HOR but, as a member of the federal labor caucus, that probably means nothing to the green perfectionists who post their purist ideology from high above the political swamp while holding a rose scented hankie to their nose.

    Cheers.


  32. Boerwar (AnonBlock)
    Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 7:19 pm
    Comment #3307

    Nicholas
    I understand that all a Greens Government needs to do is to buy some more printing presses to print as much money as you want. Should be a doddle. It has never worked in the entire history of money but when the Bwana sprinkles some pixie dust on the economy it should all be good.

    Money is now nothing more than a one or a zero in a computer. The printed money supply is insignificant.

    Have you ever thought of what a billion dollars looks like in $100 plastic bills: A billion dollars isn’t what is used to be; only 1000 million. 1000,000,000/100 = 10,000,ooo that is 10 million notes. About 10 tonnes.

  33. mh
    I thought the 7.30 coverage was a bit useful. It at least came up with the basic issue that nothing will help save the Reef except stopping global warming.

    I thought some of the commentary about scale (particularly the stuff about the inability to scale up the COTS injection to anything other than a local area, for example) was useful to the discussion.

    I thought Turnbull looked like he knew he was lying and that the situation is desperate. Had he mentioned the urgent need to cut global coal burning I would have forgiven him everything else in the announcement. But Turnbull is a climate criminal and should be locked up.

    There is some bleaching occurring this year already. The extent is unknown because no-one has the funds to do a Reef-long survey. The indications are that it will be quite a small bleaching event – too soon to say.

    But it IS the third bleaching even on the Reef in three years. AND it is occurring in a La Nina year.

  34. frednk
    You confuse me. Are you saying that the Greens Economic Plan to increase the money supply to infinity will work?
    Or what, exactly?

  35. doyley @ #1720 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    Good evening all,

    Linda Burney was very adamant this afternoon on RN drive that Di Natalie should focus on the front line issues confronting indigenous Australians rather than playing politics with his “change the date” rhetoric.

    But hey, what would she know. She is only the first indigenous female member of the HOR but, as a member of the federal labor caucus, that probably means nothing to the green perfectionists who post their purist ideology from high above the political swamp while holding a rose scented hankie to their nose.

    Cheers.

    History suggests Linda Burney will find it impossible to get her party to effectively tackle Indigenous issues.

  36. doyley

    The White Man’s Burden Re-education Camps will soon straighten Linda out.

    How dare Ms Burney hold the view that the hundreds of millions allocated by Labor but cut by Abbott, Turnbull and Scullion are first order issues when what is at stake is the Massive National Campaign to Change a Date.

  37. doyley @ #3331 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    Good evening all,

    Linda Burney was very adamant this afternoon on RN drive that Di Natalie should focus on the front line issues confronting indigenous Australians rather than playing politics with his “change the date” rhetoric.

    But hey, what would she know. She is only the first indigenous female member of the HOR but, as a member of the federal labor caucus, that probably means nothing to the green perfectionists who post their purist ideology from high above the political swamp while holding a rose scented hankie to their nose.

    Cheers.

    What would she know!?!

    Ask guytaur, Rex, Nicholas and The Greens if you want to know what Indigenous Australians really think! 😉

  38. the erudition with which your express your opinions over and over and over and over and…

    He may have some Green-related childhood trauma that he has never dealt with.

  41. mikehilliard @ #3313 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 7:32 pm

    Of course the Liberal’s destruction of the reef is a work in progress, dismantling Gillard’s marine parks.

    I’m surprised that after the brain fart that is the underwater fan to ‘cool the reef down’, that some bright spark in the Tourism Industry/LNP axis of evil, hasn’t suggested simply painting the coral with waterproof paint the colours it used to be!

  42. Rex,

    And what achievements will Di Natalie and his fellow federal greens be remembered for when indigenous policy is discussed in future years ? How Di Natalie rode in on his white horse and demanded Australia ” change the day ! ”

    BTW, while I am on the topic of political legacy what will Di Natalie, Milne , Brown and their fellow federal greens be remembered for when discussion turns to positive lasting achievements in climate change and AS policy at the national level ?

    Cheers.

  43. Adverts touting the government’s Gonski 2.0 scheme have started on radio and TV. Apparently it’s a multi billion dollar bonanza for every child in Australia – or something.

  44. Boerwar says:

    frednk
    You confuse me. Are you saying that the Greens Economic Plan to increase the money supply to infinity will work?

    Speaking of which hasn’t the 10 years since the GFC been a case of “Quantitative Easing” all round ? Me know nothing about economics but that seems very similar to your query and still predict it will end in tears. For the peasantry of course the moneycrats will always write the rules to suit themselves. Look at the GFC, the’ working stiffs’ ,except in Iceland, were made to pay and suffer so as to bail out the Banksters from the mess they were responsible for .

  45. Labor has been SO busy undoing income management, reversing the discriminatory and destructive NT intervention, reinstating public sector jobs for indigenous communities, and other substantive things that they don’t have time to consider changing Australian Day to a date that is not connected with the smashing of indigenous culture. Oh, wait….

  48. frednk,
    I have heard that the next global economic collapse will be due to the Quantitative Easing and Negative Interest Rates, such as they have in Japan, chickens coming home to roost.

  50. Boerwar,

    According to Di Natalie the one burning issue facing indigenous Australians in 2018 is January 26th.

    I am sure he will sit down with Linda Burney and point out the error of her ways at some point.

    Cheers.

Comments Page 67 of 69
1 … 66 67 68 69

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *