Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 65 of 69
1 64 65 66 69
  1. “On the subject of diesel, Frydenberg is lying (again).
    What does it take to make these ***** stop lying?”

    So much surprisiment. Truism is…If its Liberal, it lies.

  2. BiDG

    The excise bit … practical administration. Most of the shopping stuff would have some rules about individual home use but no profiteering.

  3. Boerwar @ #3181 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 1:49 pm

    Getting a bit grumpy about Crikey. Rundle does a piece on Australia Day without getting stuck into the Greens’ rank whitefella paternalism. All he does is carry on and on inside the bubble about Australia Day issues. Hello?

    Then Keane reckons that Shorten can’t ride his luck indefinitely, gets in some nasty snarks and snipes, and then advises Shorten to keep doing what he is doing.

    It is like reading Guytaur and DTT all over again.

    I also do not know where they are getting off. I’ve just been out and about talking to people outside of the bubble, basically everyday people with no particular investment one way or the other in changing the date of Australia Day, or not changing it, and not one person I spoke to brought it up as something that was on their mind. The closest I got to the issue was noticing that some people had bought new flags for their flagpoles.

    However, as another experiment, I will head down to our local community hall this Australia Day for the combined Australian/Indigenous flag-raising ceremony, and I will conduct a vox pop to see what people’s opinion about it is, if they have one at all. We are a broadly Left-leaning community here, so I should get an appropriately diverse set of views. I mean, we have 3 hand-carved Aboriginal totems beside the hall which the residents group commissioned.

  4. Meanwhile, One Nation continues to project the very image of competence and stability:

    Pauline Hanson is launching a bid to have her renegade former colleague Fraser Anning kicked out of Parliament by the High Court, but she could have trouble convincing her Senate colleagues to back the move.

    According to reports in The Australian newspaper, the One Nation leader has written to Senate President Scott Ryan signalling her intention to ask the Upper House to refer Senator Anning’s eligibility for office for judgment by the court.

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-22/pauline-hanson-fraser-anning-feud-continues/9347866

  5. Don,

    Modern airliners are Turbofans. The jet exhaust is a minor component of the thrust. With increasing efficiency in their design a purely fan driven engine is probably feasible as a replacement for a turbofan now. (or just strap a couple more to the underside of the wing like a 747). It’s providing the power that’s the problem. Barney’s point about safe landing weight v take off weight is also a good one. Batteries have a long way to go to be feasible, but electricity could power a fan as easily as it powers a prop.

    and Guytaur,

    Lighter than air aircraft are clearly a tech that could be utilised with electrical motors but Helium is extracted from natural gas and has high production costs and CO2 , and the reasons they haven’t been successfully employed in cargo haulage have nothing at all to do with the power supply to the motors. For sightseeing, aerial observation, research and other niche roles they have a place, but it won’t ever be anything other than very niche.

  6. pewinternet: Young adults were among the earliest social media users, but older adults are increasingly using these platforms. pewrsr.ch/2mR7iru pic.twitter.com/oLKV2MydXI

  7. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/dangers-lurk-in-2018-for-both-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten/news-story/9052987a05a3b7b0474804fe86319ff8

    Really?

    Onselen is off with the fairies.

    “But it is the pressures Bill Shorten will face to start the new political year which will be most acute. ”

    About the citizenship thing?? Doubt that’s actually a threat to Shortens leadership. Libs have a LOT more to fear from this.

    Seems to be the media “players” think that they can’t talk about Truffles deficiencies and problems with out drawing some kind of false equivalence comparison with Shorten ?? Useless overpaid prats.

  8. Onselen is off with the fairies…. About the citizenship thing??

    He might be letting something slip. Perhaps not necessarily his mind.

    Then again, he might just be writing dribble to meet a deadline.

  9. Onselen is off with the fairies…. About the citizenship thing??

    Because only the Liberal and National Party MPs get swings to them when they contest citizenship by-elections!?!

  10. Bemused

    Anyone can be excused for not knowing stuff, even if it is their specialty.

    What caught you out was your arrogant questioning of very basic science. Sometimes silence is golden.

    Since you have done this to me on stuff where I have undoubted expertise and substantial data, you have no case to answer. It is an extremely irritating personal trait and one you should curb, even as you mature further.

    And yes confessions, don and 1,00 others, no doubt you will find instances of times when I have done likewise. Mea culpa in advance.

  11. And yes confessions, don and 1,00 others, no doubt you will find instances of times when I have done likewise. Mea culpa in advance.

    1,00 others?

  12. Simon Katich @ #3189 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 9:58 am

    Regarding Boundary Islet – common law border determination would suggest that as the intent was to have the islet on one side of the border then the island becomes a ‘monument’ and thus outweighs subsequent more accurate determination of the latitude and the islet. Unless determined otherwise by negotiation between the two parties, the border should wrap around the southern side of the islet.

    I feel this is a very important detail being forgotten – border determination is a foundation stone of our social and economic system. Not only would the inhabitants of the islet be best served in proper determination as outlined above we also risk wider implications – ultimately the collapse of a system that is crucial to all we hold dear.

    Breaking news from Boundary Islet!!!

    There was a major battle brewing between the inhabitants of the islet and reportedly the first fish had been thrown.

    Southern inhabitants wanted the complete integration of the islet into Tasmania fearing gangs from nearby Victoria effecting the natural balance.

    Northern inhabitants were meanwhile as just as resolute in moving completely to Victoria.

    Those occupying the defishifised zone along the border were more ambivalent asking , which side would bring more fish to the party.

    It seemed only a matter of time before blubber was spilt as hostilities seemed imminent.

    However a recent report has an unauthorised maritime arrival approaching.

    A colony of penguins has set out from Phillip Island looking for a new safer home away from drunk motor racing fans and tourists.

    This seems to be having a uniting effect as inhabitants discuss ways of dealing with the approaching threat.

    One was heard complaining, “Bloody penguins, think they’re so special. Waddle, waddle, shit, shit. And breed!”

    Another more practical inhabitant mused, “I like penguins, it makes a pleasant change from fish!”

    But the overwhelming opinion from those gathered was, “How are we meant to bask on our favourite rock when it’s covered in penguin shit?”

    One thing seems certain, the the penguins won’t be receiving the welcome from the fur seals that they were looking for! 🙂

  13. daretotread @ #3215 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    Bemused

    Anyone can be excused for not knowing stuff, even if it is their specialty.

    What caught you out was your arrogant questioning of very basic science. Sometimes silence is golden.

    Since you have done this to me on stuff where I have undoubted expertise and substantial data, you have no case to answer. It is an extremely irritating personal trait and one you should curb, even as you mature further.

    And yes confessions, don and 1,00 others, no doubt you will find instances of times when I have done likewise. Mea culpa in advance.

    I ask questions and learn stuff I didn’t previously know. What do you do?
    Your stuff is such that just about everyone doubts it. Some of it is just plain batty and much of it is hysterical.

  14. Because only the Liberal and National Party MPs get swings to them when they contest citizenship by-elections!?!

    Feeney (if the ALP are silly enough not to dump him and get a better candidate) will not get a swing to him if he stands at the almost-guaranteed-by-his-stupidity-and-laziness byelection.

  15. Breaking news from Boundary Islet!!!

    You laugh now. After Boundary Islet induced Armageddon, the joke will be on you my friend.

  16. Simon Katich @ #3218 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 11:32 am

    And yes confessions, don and 1,00 others, no doubt you will find instances of times when I have done likewise. Mea culpa in advance.

    1,00 others?

    It’s the French (?, assuming as they use it here in Vietnam,) form where they use a comma for the decimal place and so dtt has incorrectly used the plural form, “others”! 🙂

  17. ratsak says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 3:02 pm
    Don,

    Modern airliners are Turbofans. The jet exhaust is a minor component of the thrust. With increasing efficiency in their design a purely fan driven engine is probably feasible as a replacement for a turbofan now. (or just strap a couple more to the underside of the wing like a 747). It’s providing the power that’s the problem. Barney’s point about safe landing weight v take off weight is also a good one. Batteries have a long way to go to be feasible, but electricity could power a fan as easily as it powers a prop.

    Thanks for that. It was to avoid the use of turbofans that I proposed that the appropriate yardstick was a piston engine propeller driven aircraft. I was wrong.

    Thus if turbofans are allowed, high speeds are indeed possible:

    From Dr Google:


    Turbofans are thus the most efficient engines in the range of speeds from about 500 to 1,000 km/h (310 to 620 mph), the speed at which most commercial aircraft operate. Turbofans retain an efficiency edge over pure jets at low supersonic speeds up to roughly Mach 1.6

    This link implies that the exhaust gases supply 22% of the thrust. Not a huge amount, but not insignificant either.

    https://www.quora.com/As-it-related-to-both-turbofan-and-turbojet-engines-how-much-of-a-jet-engines-thrust-is-derived-from-the-fan-blades-versus-the-exhaust-gases

  18. Seems to be the media “players” think that they can’t talk about Truffles deficiencies and problems with out drawing some kind of false equivalence comparison with Shorten ?? Useless overpaid prats.

    What would January be without the CPG telling us how the present dimwit in the PM’s seat had got his mojo back and was just about to crack Shorten? It’s like cricket in Adelaide on Australia Day. Doesn’t happen every year, but it’s tough to remember the times it didn’t.

  19. Jackol @ #3219 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 3:37 pm

    Because only the Liberal and National Party MPs get swings to them when they contest citizenship by-elections!?!

    Feeney (if the ALP are silly enough not to dump him and get a better candidate) will not get a swing to him if he stands at the almost-guaranteed-by-his-stupidity-and-laziness byelection.

    Bring on a class Victorian candidate for the ALP!

    I’m trying to think who that could be though?

    It would certainly be the right time to get someone in who may go into government after the next election.

  20. Jackol @ #1607 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 3:37 pm

    Because only the Liberal and National Party MPs get swings to them when they contest citizenship by-elections!?!

    Feeney (if the ALP are silly enough not to dump him and get a better candidate) will not get a swing to him if he stands at the almost-guaranteed-by-his-stupidity-and-laziness byelection.

    The parliament will be improved with a Labor right faction member replaced by a Green.

  21. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 3:46 pm

    It’s the French (?, assuming as they use it here in Vietnam,) form where they use a comma for the decimal place and so dtt has incorrectly used the plural form, “others”!

    ______________________

    In my role as maths teacher, I actively discourage students from using commas and use spaces instead in numbers such as 1 000 or 1 000 000, convenient as they may be for English speakers, but use the point (low) to mark decimals, e.g. 1.23 or similar, though I occasionally point out the use of commas in Europe for decimal points as the reason for using spaces instead of commas to mark thousands and so on.

    The mid-height point should be kept for multiplication,
    for example a · b

    In archaeology webpages which are read in various countries, I avoid the decimal point or comma as often as I can, converting 12.7 cm to 127 mm for example, and rounding off to the nearest mm otherwise.

  22. So NXT just announced 2 more candidates for SA.

    A former Liberal party mayor is trying to take on a sitting Labor Minister in some of the safest Labor territory in the country. It’s hard to know if they will come 2nd or 3rd, but it’s a waste of time trying either way.

    They also announced a former Labor party mayor for a seat that is notionally marginal Liberal on last election results, notionally marginal Labor under current polling. This one they have a chance in, I guess.

  23. Voice Endeavour @ #1616 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    So NXT just announced 2 more candidates for SA.

    A former Liberal party mayor is trying to take on a sitting Labor Minister in some of the safest Labor territory in the country. It’s hard to know if they will come 2nd or 3rd, but it’s a waste of time trying either way.

    They also announced a former Labor party mayor for a seat that is notionally marginal Liberal on last election results, notionally marginal Labor under current polling. This one they have a chance in, I guess.

    The abandonment of Lib-Lab continues…

  24. Don – the turbofan engine not only popular for short range passenger freight type flights but also great for small surface attack a/c like the Pucara.

  25. @VE

    Until you get regulators to point at one standard and only one. Then it becomes a case of:

    ash standard durbatulûk,
    ash standard gimbatul…

  26. Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 4:28 pm
    @ don
    (xkcd cartoon)

    You’re not wrong!

    My personal wish is that we would use a line above repeating decimals, instead of what we were taught when I was a kid that you should use a dot over the first repeating decimal, and a dot over the last.

    The line over the repeating part of the decimals is so much easier to work with, but text books in Oz do not seem to think it is worth using.

    The line (vinculum) above the repeaters is used in the US, but we slavishly follow the UK.

  27. “small surface attack a/c like the Pucara.”

    err…….thats a turbo prop. Different beast. 🙂

    Turbojet, Turbofan, Fanjet, Turboprop, Free Turbine, all variations on the same theme.
    Turbine based “Gas Generator” ( a gas turbine) provides thrust that either gets used as a reaction drive, or turns something that moves air in vast quantities. Applications?? For aircraft mainly depends on the speed range you are proposing to operate in vs efficiency.

    Also, used in ships and for static power generation. Gas Turbines in a power station are basically a jet engine tamed and bolted down.

  28. CTar1 says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 4:30 pm
    Don – the turbofan engine not only popular for short range passenger freight type flights but also great for small surface attack a/c like the Pucara.

    I think you will find that is a turbo prop, not a turbofan.

    edit: Curses! Foiled again!

  29. Don and Ratsak

    While its been 30 years since I studied fluid-dynamics and thermodynamics at uni, I’m pretty sure you are both missing the point about turbofans. Putting aside the percentage of thrust that is attributable to various parts of the engine the fundamental way that turbofan engines work is by manipulating high air pressure and low air pressure via heat and compression through the air bypass systems behind the main turbo fan. You cant simply say ‘well, we can do without that 22% thrust by swapping out the av-gas driven fan for a battery powered electric motor driven fan”. It simply doesn’t work like that. Sure, if you can get your power to weight ratios up sufficiently you can think about replacing propellor driven motors (whether internal combustion driven or turbo props) with electric motor propeller aircraft (witness the explosion of radio control planes and small drones), but above about Mach 0.6 that wont work any more …

  30. CTar – other than turbo prop aircraft, virtually all modern jet planes are ‘turbo fans’ – generally divided between ‘low bypass’ types (civilian airliners and cargo planes, and military transports) and ‘high bypass’ types. There are though some old school ‘turbo jet’ engines used for various cruise missiles …

  31. Don,

    Yes, 15-25%.

    So as I said, if you can’t get enough out of two fans without the exhaust propulsion whack one on the tail like a DC 10 or 727, or go the whole hog and have four hanging under the wings 747 style.

    That isn’t the technical problem, the clever clogs at RR et al could make it work with a minimum of fuss.

    Energy density of the power source to compete with jet fuel is. (and landing weight).

    Following on from my hybrid speculations earlier…
    LNG has about a 25% higher Specific Energy (Mj/kg) than Jet Fuel, but about 2/3 the Energy Density (Mj/l). Obviously the issues of size of the tanks required, pressurization, and other difficulties with using LNG is the reason Kerosene is used for aircraft and not methane. But perhaps someone much cleverer than I could devise a system that used a battery (and perhaps a ground based catapult like on aircraft carriers) to get 250 tons of plane in the air and biomethane to power a high efficiency generator to keep the motors running in flight. Such a system could end up being pretty low CO2 with little really radical tech.

    The hardest part is getting 250 tons from standing start to cruising altitude. Any ground based assistance during take off would be much easier to battery power (and renewable recharge) than the actual cruising power. Perhaps a simple thing like a set of computer controlled drones (like really really beefed up Teslas in Insane mode) that connect up to the landing gear and taxi the aircraft out for take off before boosting it down the runway so it doesn’t require as much on board power to get in the air could work. One use, then off to the recharging point for a couple of hours until ready to go again. None of that is really beyond contemporary technology and could even make a significant contribution to lowering emissions to current aircraft or at least generations of aircraft not too far down the track.

  32. Ratsak:

    I was going to suggest an aircraft carrier slingshot:

    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2011/12/its-like-a-ginormous-slingshot-but-for-planes/

    But then on rereading I saw you had included that possibility.

    Mind you, 0 to 165 MPH in two seconds would not go well with my aunt Madge. They’d need to tone the thrust down a bit, say one g or less.

    But what about Andrew_Earlwood’s post above, which says that just strapping an electric motor onto a turbofan won’t work, you have to use a prop?

  33. Putting aside the percentage of thrust that is attributable to various parts of the engine the fundamental way that turbofan engines work is by manipulating high air pressure and low air pressure via heat and compression through the air bypass systems behind the main turbo fan.

    Fair enough, but there are other ways of creating heat and compression. Or as I speculated some form of hybrid where a liquid fuel is combined with electric motors. It doesn’t have to be an either/or.

    It will take someone much smarter than me and there are probably other issues we’ve got no idea about, but I’d say it’s pretty likely that there are so real smarties working on coming up with some pretty awesome tech to reduce and probably eventually eliminate CO2 emissions for commercial air travel.

  34. My mistake. Misspoke. – ‘high bypass’ turbo jets – modern airline and military transport engines. Low bypass – military jets.

  35. I think this might be a first in Australia. The council has roped off 750m2 of prime public beach at Glenelg for a private beach club/bar.

    The idea of having a drink looking out over the beach and jetty is very nice but I’m pretty horrified by roping off a public beach for a business selling alcohol in the middle of a dry zone.

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/messenger/west-beaches/glenelg-moseley-bar-and-kitchen-beach-club-is-a-kick-in-the-gut-trader/news-story/7f746dd92efca146425e0605dfbaa687

  36. As for the mayors enlisted by SA Best for the SA election, it’s not quite as Rex Douglas represents it.

    Gary Johanssen (not sure of spelling) is the Mayor of Charles Sturt. He’s a former member of the Liberal Party but is, I believe, an independent these days. He was never elected as a Liberal mayor – we don’t have party affiliations for local government elections in SA. He’s been around a long time and his quest in Port Adelaide is not as hopeless as Rex seems to think. He ran Labor’s Susan Close, currently Education Minister, very close when she first took the seat at a by-election.

    Kris Hanna, Mayor of Marion, was first elected to parliament as a Labor MP, toppling the sitting Liberal. He fell out with Labor and joined the Greens, but dropped them when he didn’t top spot on their Legislative Council ticket. He was re-elected to parliament as an independent but failed narrowly at his next attempt. Now he’s with SA Best and must stand a chance.

  37. Ratsak – interesting that you say that because back in the 1950s when the US Governemnt were thinking about ways to use nuclear reactions power stuff there were three different development programs – one for each of the services. The Navy plan lead to the nuclear powered ships (mainly carriers) and boats (subs) in service today. The army plan lead to those large scale reactors generating power throughout the non soviet bloc. The Airforce plan was very interesting: the idea was to create ‘sub critical’ small thorium based reactors – and the aim was for something the size and weight of a small/medium sized car, placed in the belly of large strategic bombers to generate heat to be used in an airborne version of those hydro pumps now in service on a range of nuclear subs (replacing conventional propellers). The idea was to keep the bombers in the air for six months at a time, able to penetrate enemy airspace at extreme altitudes and go all Slim Pickins on the Roosians at a moments notice. Regrettably the airforce project was scrapped with the advent of multi nuclear warhead balistic missiles. Maybe this project could be revisited in the near future.

Comments Page 65 of 69
1 64 65 66 69

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *