Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 63 of 69
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  1. Barney in Go Dau @ #3077 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 11:41 am

    I find the whole concept of biofuel a nonsense.

    No, it’s not nonsense. But the ecological benefits of ‘biofuel’ depend on either (a) burning stuff that would decay and release the C02 anyway, such as forest waste; or (b) replacing what you burn with something that sucks the same amount of carbon out of the atmosphere.

    I live in an area that is logged regularly. Ok, you might not be in favor of logging, but it is a fact of life. And the forests are regrown. However, the amount of forest waste – which will decay anyway – would be sufficient to power a small local electricity generation plant if it could be harvested efficiently.

  2. How about capturing and using the gas given off by human and animal waste?

    Yeah, wondering when the manufacturers of onsite waste systems (septic, secondary and worm farm treatment) will incorporate such into their designs.

  3. The whole practicality of electric planes comes down to weight.

    This doesn’t diminish during flight like a conventional aircraft as it uses its fuel.

    So the weight of batteries severely impacts on the additional weight (payload) you can carry.

    Typically an aircraft’s safe take off weight is more than its safe landing weight, so an aircraft can load up knowing its weight will be OK when it gets to its destination.

  5. Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 11:22 am
    Kill off the diesel rebate.

    Ensure that the people using petrol pay the costs associated with cleaning up the associated Carbon Emissions (i.e. a Carbon tax).

    Then let EVs stand on their own two feet.

    The diesel tax rebate is available for off-road diesel consumption….not for petrol consumption.

    Essentially, diesel excise is a tax on the production of food, fisheries products and mineral ores. Why would we want to tax the production of foodstuffs – agricultural, horticultural and fisheries products? Diesel excise in these sectors work in a similar way to a sales tax. They are imposts on both sellers and buyers.

  8. OK, my opening sentence was too general.

    I was referring to the practice of farming for biofuel as the rest of my comment addresses. 😝

  10. YaThinkN: “So don’t believe the bullshit being peddled by the Abbott camp today on EVs. It’s inaccurate, deliberately misleading, and nothing more than another attempt to wedge Turnbull on renewable energy.” @Drag0nista dragonistasblog.com/2018/01/22/don…

    https://dragonistasblog.com/2018/01/22/dont-believe-abbott-and-kelly-electric-cars-are-part-of-the-battery-revolution/

    I think we can agree that Abbott talking about energy is a pack of BS.
    I could be wrong of course. 🙂

  11. Fredn

    I only use the Samsung to read news, keep up with this blog, or just being nosey on the internet when not at home.

    It only does wifi.

    I have a cheap dependable non Apple phone for calls, SMS, etc.

  13. LawDavisito94: A true conservative isn’t racist, homophobic, or xenophobic. They’re at least “live and let live” people. Donald Trump isn’t even a conservative: he’s bullshitting showman who doesn’t respect true American values of citizenship. He’s pandering you fears & converting them to hate.

  14. DTT:


    It has a name and it is called “legitimacy.” (Yes I learned this while getting my HD in political theory at ANU). I found it very useful in understanding politics.

    A logical fallacy.

    Appeal to accomplishment, a subset of argumentum ad verecundiam.

    AKA ‘Trust me, I’m an expert’

  15. lizzie @ #3107 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    Bill Shorten‏Verified account @billshortenmp · 9m9 minutes ago

    Today’s must-read. The top end of town is doing very well already. They don’t need a $65 billion tax break from Turnbull. And if I’m elected Prime Minister, they won’t get it.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-sees-massive-leap-in-billionaires-20180121-p4yyof.html

    And if I’m elected Prime Minister, they won’t get it.

    I don’t like the “if” word. “When” might be too strong or arrogant. Perhaps: ‘Elect me and they won’t get it”.

  16. AustraliaInJPN: A solar powered train on the East Coast of . By restoring an old diesel car and replacing its engine with a motor, Byron Bay Rail has produced “the wold’s first-solar powered train.” Check out the cool way to commute with zero emissions: byronbaytrain.com.au #sustainable pic.twitter.com/r188OK97pO

  17. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 12:05 pm
    The whole practicality of electric planes comes down to weight.

    This doesn’t diminish during flight like a conventional aircraft as it uses its fuel.

    So the weight of batteries severely impacts on the additional weight (payload) you can carry.

    Typically an aircraft’s safe take off weight is more than its safe landing weight, so an aircraft can load up knowing its weight will be OK when it gets to its destination.

    Fair enough, but I suspect that the weight of the ‘engines’ of the electric version would be a lot less than your average fossil fuel aeroplane engine. That is certainly true for car engines.

    Obviously electric planes can only be propeller powered, so with the present technology they are never going to be as fast as jets.

  20. Talking of extravagance: Turnbull has refused to live in Kirribilli House or the Lodge in Canberra. This decision has cost millions in security. Both Howard and Abbott made similar decisions, but perhaps for different reasons.

  21. GT:

    Byron Bay Rail has produced “the wold’s first-solar powered train.”

    That is great.

    Below from Wikipedia:

    ___________________
    The Byron Bay Railroad Company (also known as the Byron Bay Train) is a not-for-profit passenger rail operator serving Byron Bay, New South Wales operating on a three kilometre section of the disused Casino-Murwillimbah line. Operations commenced in December 2017.

    The company has converted a 1949 built 600 class railcar to solar power for use on the line.

    On Thursday 11 January 2018, the company announced they had taken over 10,000 passengers on the train, just 19 days after service began.

    ………

    The train operates a return shuttle between North Beach station located in Sunrise Beach and Byron Beach station, which will serve the beach and Byron township. Due to the service not being subsidised by the government, the timetable will be reviewed from time to time. The train contains room for bikes, prams and surfboards, which can be carried free of charge.

    ……..

    Passengers aged 0–5 years ride free, with those aged 6–13 travelling for $2, and passengers fourteen and up travelling for $3 on a one-way journey

  22. don @ #3114 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 12:22 pm

    DTT:


    It has a name and it is called “legitimacy.” (Yes I learned this while getting my HD in political theory at ANU). I found it very useful in understanding politics.

    A logical fallacy.

    Appeal to accomplishment, a subset of argumentum ad verecundiam.

    AKA ‘Trust me, I’m an expert’

    Studying political theory just gave me some useful tools for analysis.
    It doesn’t mean I will necessarily apply them correctly, although I hope I will. But I also apply other tools like common sense and knowledge of facts of situations.

  23. How long before we get electric powered farm equipment?

    Bye bye Diesel Fuel Subsidy.
    ______________________
    Turnbull presser now.

  27. “Obviously electric planes can only be propeller powered, so with the present technology they are never going to be as fast as jets.”

    If you’re unsure whether speed or cost win in the air transportation industry, have a look at concorde.

  28. I thought I heard Turnbull say that his govt relied on science and technology to make decisions. Surely not.

    He looked very flat and spoke without enthusiasm.

  30. Rossmcg @ #3105 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 8:09 am

    Barney

    You mean electrons are weightless? next you will want me to believe they are colourless and odourless as well.

    Boerwar @ #3127 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 8:41 am

    PeeBee
    Where is the land border between Vic and Tas?

    Middle of Bass Strait.

    There was some confusion over the location of some islands so when they decided on the sea border it inadvertently cut through at least one of them! 🙂

  31. How long before we get electric powered farm equipment?

    Solar-powered AI-driven agriculture needs to be the Next Big Thing, IMO.

  32. Please lets not get started on State boundaries.

    I would like to maintain friendly relations with the thieving ratbag Victorian PBers.

  33. briefly @ #3105 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 11:08 am

    Why would we want to tax the production of foodstuffs – agricultural, horticultural and fisheries products?

    So that people start producing those things in a more sustainable way. Why would we want cheaper production now with hidden environmental costs passed on to future generations?

    Only producers who insist on continuing to use fossil fuels would be taxed de-subsidized. That seems fair enough to me. We can’t go on forever pretending that using fossil fuels is okay.

  34. Boerwar,

    Here it is!

    Boundary Islet, historically known as North East Islet, part of the Hogan Island Group, is a two-hectare (4.9-acre) islet that straddles the border of the Australian states of Victoria and Tasmania.

  35. In tbe 70/80’s the Chinese and Russians had lots of successful meetings about big border issues.

    They, having established trust between the teams, drafted an agreement about a number of small areas that both could lay claim to but were very messy because of current land use and also because the locals liked at times to shop, buy stuff in places on either side of the border.

    In the end they drew some lines around the areas and said when there’s a problem local officials of equivalent rank would investigate and sort. The big point was no unilateral action.

    It was never signed as a formal agreement but is instead used as a protocol.

    Too sensible to be a formal international agreement!

  39. Correction of country of birth data incorrectly reported and attributed to the Crime Statistics Agency
    22 January 2018

    Statistical clarification: inaccuracy in alleged offender country of birth data attributed to the
    Crime Statistics Agency

    A number of journalists and media outlets have been reporting a figure in recent weeks that has been attributed to the Crime Statistics Agency, which we have discovered is incorrect.

    The original figure has been sourced from the ‘No one teaches you to become an Australian’ report published by the Commonwealth Joint Committee on Migration’s Inquiry into Migrant Settlement Outcomes in December 2017. On page 131 of the report, in paragraph 7.58, a number of statistics are provided relating to alleged Victorian offenders by country of birth. The paragraph is attributed to evidence provided by the Chief Statistician of the Crime Statistics Agency. Whilst the whole numbers in this paragraph of the report are correct and align with the evidence provided by the Crime Statistics Agency, the proportions were calculated by the authors of the report and are not correct.

    Regretfully, some of the proportions quoted in this section of the report have been reproduced in a number of media reports in recent times and may have been misleading. The correct figures for the year ending December 2016 are:

    Australia 59,476 or 72.7% of the unique offender population
    New Zealand 1,850 or 2.3% of the unique offender population
    India 1,028 or 1.3% of the unique offender population
    Vietnam 949 or 1.2% of the unique offender population
    Sudan 807 or 1.0% of the unique offender population
    It should also be noted that these statistics are also now quite out of date. The same statistics for the most recent reference period published by the Crime Statistics Agency, the year ending September 2017 are:

    Australia 59,048 or 71.7% of the unique offender population
    New Zealand 1,826 or 2.2% of the unique offender population
    India 1,155 or 1.4% of the unique offender population
    UK and Ireland 1,063 or 1.3% of the unique offender population
    Vietnam 920 or 1.1% of the unique offender population
    Sudan 846 or 1.0% of the unique offender population

    Should you have any queries about these or any other Victorian crime statistics, please do not hesitate to contact us via info@crimestatistics.vic.gov.au (External link) and we will be happy to assist.

    For further information please contact:
    Crime Statistics Agency
    Phone: 8684 1808
    Email: info@crimestatistics.vic.gov.au (External link)

    https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/media-centre/news/correction-of-country-of-birth-data-incorrectly-reported-and-attributed-to-the

  40. a r @ #1521 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 12:50 pm

    briefly @ #3105 Monday, January 22nd, 2018 – 11:08 am

    Why would we want to tax the production of foodstuffs – agricultural, horticultural and fisheries products?

    So that people start producing those things in a more sustainable way. Why would we want cheaper production now with hidden environmental costs passed on to future generations?

    Only producers who insist on continuing to use fossil fuels would be taxed de-subsidized. That seems fair enough to me. We can’t go on forever pretending that using fossil fuels is okay.

    Common sense, a r. Wasted on the neo-libs though unfortunately.

  41. JayWeatherill: I’m supporting @AnnastaciaMP’S call for bullying in schools to be on COAG’s next agenda. Too much harm being inflicted on our young people.A national plan sorely needed.

  42. Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, January 22, 2018 at 12:44 pm
    (Don) “Obviously electric planes can only be propeller powered, so with the present technology they are never going to be as fast as jets.”
    ____________
    (VE) If you’re unsure whether speed or cost win in the air transportation industry, have a look at concorde.

    ______________

    Maybe so, but I hope you enjoy your week long trip to Europe via piston engine propeller driven aircraft, which is essentially what the electric planes would be competing with.

    Fine for short hops.

  45. Essentially, diesel excise is a tax on the production of food, fisheries products and mineral ores. Why would we want to tax the production of foodstuffs – agricultural, horticultural and fisheries products? Diesel excise in these sectors work in a similar way to a sales tax. They are imposts on both sellers and buyers.

    It was, when there was no alternative to diesel. But now technological changes are bringing batteries and alternative fuels closer to diesel costs, it makes no sense to maintain the diesel excise exclusion.

    Eg. Terrajoule http://www.terrajoulecorp.com/

  47. guytaur
    “JayWeatherill: I’m supporting @AnnastaciaMP’S call for bullying in schools to be on COAG’s next agenda. Too much harm being inflicted on our young people.A national plan sorely needed.”
    Surely it is a state issue. They run the schools. Talk about passing the buck.

  50. Diogenes

    I don’t know the policies of SA and Qld on bullying in their education systems.

    So they could be like the Andrews government and have a Safe Schools programme and want to make that national.

    If not I agree with you. 🙂

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