Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:
• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.
• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.
• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.
C@tmomma says: Monday, January 15, 2018 at 3:10 pm
to spark full-blown American retaliation against what would be presumed to be a North Korean attack on Hawaii?
And thankfully the person was taken care of, and the countries who would have been in the firing line were informed, all while lard ass Trump was happily golfing away?
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Jake Tapper: Hawaii missile alert could have led to ‘nuclear war’ if Trump had been watching Fox & Friends
“I think there are a lot of people out there, and I don’t want to be flip about this, but I think there are a lot of people out there who are happy that this at least didn’t happen while President Trump was watching ‘Fox & Friends,’ and instead it happened when he was out on the golf course and he was informed about this by layers of advisers and such,” Tapper remarked.
http://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/jake-tapper-hawaii-missile-alert-could-have-led-to-nuclear-war-if-trump-had-been-watching-fox-friends/
Boris @ #2000 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 3:26 pm
Yes. Let’s have a Royal Commission into Truck Industry deaths, shall we? 🙂
JM
It seems Labor has been much better than the other parties at checking up.
Their problem is claiming they had it all correct when it turns out at least three will get a trip to the HC. Which makes you wonder about the other four or so.
Senate inquiry would be sufficient.
86% increase in preventable deaths, it is as noted akin to the LNP overturning complusory seat belt laws or RBT.
“Their problem is claiming they had it all correct when it turns out at least three will get a trip to the HC. ”
Which may not be a big problem depending on how the HC rules. And…i still think however it goes, the Libs have a lot more to lose out of this than the ALP. Will await how this plays out with interest. 🙂
Ah, so the Missile Attack Warning System was new to Hawaii? Basically since Trump came on the scene and started his bluster attacks on Kim Jong Un. So someone didn’t design it very well at all.
Seat belts laws were opposed because of the cost to the car industry, RBT beacuase of the cost to clubs hotels revenue and jobs truck safety because of increased costs to trucking.
Profit over lives.
Of course putting on a conspiratorial hat for a moment “surprise, surprise” it could well have been an attempted false flag attack foiled by some genuine patriot.
the US has a history of false flags – Gulf of Tonkin etc so it is possible that they were looking for an excuse to take out Kim but someone sane in Hawaii foiled it- by accident or design.
I agree with Voice – if that is the real story ie an accident via one step, then the whole US nuke system needs to be shut down until better fail safe mechanisms are in place. Frankly it is pretty unbelievable unless their systems are so run down as to be third world – which is hard to believe EXCEPT we has those two bizarre naval accident which suggested people were barely trained and probably asleep.
Whatever the explanation it is a bad news story – either incompetent or devious.
I suppose they could have had an accident with one of their own missiles but which was successfully removed but the missile from outside was a cover story.
Has anyöne any other rational suggestions.
Now come on Briefly to the fore my friend. You must have some good explanation as to why I am nuts. To the front sir at once”.
imacca @ #2005 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 11:41 am
No matter what, Feeney and Gallagher show there were flaws in the system but this should not detract from the fact that they, unlike all the other Parties, treated the issue seriously and had measures to comply.
Poroti
I am inclined to suggest that Dutton can take the mantle of Australia’s first fascism officer in chief!!!
dtt
It was a state emergency service that set off what is a ‘warning’ system.
No matter what ‘button’ they press all that happens is a warning.
You make it sound like they can launch missiles.
The Trump administration is vying to substantially increase the U.S.’s nuclear stockpile and something like this will provoke them into action :
Russia has autonomous underwater nuclear drone with 100-megaton warhead: Pentagon report
Pentagon officials warn in the posture review that Russia has actively diversified its nuclear capabilities, a strategic advantage it has over the United States
http://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/russia-has-autonomous-underwater-nuclear-drone-with-100-megaton-warhead-pentagon-report/
As far as I can tell, the Hawaii mishap was caused by their own local Emergency Services Dept. this had nothing to do with Homeland Security.
It could have just as easily been our equivalent of the CFA or MFB.
I think people are reading too much into this
Dutton would be nothing without an even bigger scumbag enabling him.
It continues to amaze me that the biggest load of filth to occupy the Lodge still gets the benefit of the doubt after all the times he’s demonstrated what he really is.
I see that the 50 Shades of Red have decided to ignore little niggles like the systematic white-anting of our democratic institutions, the wholesale assault on our social infrastructure, the white-anting of public health, transport and education, falling real wages, and the death of the Great Barrier Reef.
Di Natale’s Grand 2018 Political Offensive a ‘massive’ campaign to change the date of Australia Day.
What do 50 Shades of Red, the X, and the PHONy Pony have in common?
Dutton is just a very privileged yet narrow-minded person.
Totally unfit to be a parliamentarian.
“C@t
The Lnp should be held accountable for those truck deaths as they tried to hold Rudd accountable for the insulation deaths.
Labor legislated a safety measure, the LNP overturned it and truck deaths jumped 86%.”
If only media and some selected, self-appointed, ‘objective’ political observers where half a concerned about truck / site and the work for the dole deaths as they were about the home insulation subsidy / grant deaths there would be screaming 25 hours a day. I don’t even expect them to be not racist and opposed to deaths of refugees, but why can’t they treat the deaths of Australian’s at work the same as they did …
So if you carried on about how bad the deaths in roofs were but have been silent on these other deaths, either you were taken for a ride of partisan stupidity by the LNP or you were actually worse, happy to milk tragedy for political purposes without any genuine care for the workers, partisanship and exploitation of the very worst kind. How countries get to Trump …. personally I hope Abbott / Turnbull are our Trumps and their supporters / voters the Aussie equivalent of the moronic trumpsters, but i worry we have worse to go yet.
daretotread @ #2008 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 3:47 pm
Clearly, a small nuclear attack on Hawaii is a small price to pay for distracting the Mueller investigation from continuing inquires in to the Trump Family and their criminal money laundering scheme.
Of course one more reasonable explanation is that it was really a drill to see how emergency systems cope BUT they (probably sensibly) did not want to alarm the public or get lots of nasty questions about failures if it were advertised as a drill.
So a fake alert with plausible deniability was the way to – I could believe that one.
His head exploded’: Michael Wolff laughs over Trump’s attempt to stop ‘Fire and Fury’ publication
“All he managed to do was call more attention to my book. He just shoots himself in the foot at every opportunity.”
With regard to Trump’s mental fitness and capability of carrying out his duties, Wolff said, “I don’t know if the president is clinically off his rocker. I do know, from what I saw and what I heard from people around him, that Donald Trump is deeply unpredictable, irrational, at times bordering on incoherent, self-obsessed in a disconcerting way, and displays all those kinds of traits that anyone would reasonably say, ‘What’s going on here, is something wrong?’”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/his-head-exploded-michael-wolff-laughs-over-trumps-attempt-to-stop-fire-and-fury-publication/
Spot the autonomous 100 megaton drone:
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=images+of+decaying+russian+warships&client=firefox-b&dcr=0&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwihs_r5ltnYAhWIOJQKHVJAB00Q7AkIQg&biw=960&bih=460#imgrc=m3GBxL7Y9O9RgM:
GG
OK you have supplied another option- even more way out than mine but hey I will include it as a theory.
Ratsak
I am not giving Turnbull the benefit of the doubt. As I have mentioned in past few days, I am inclined to think that we may find that he has immersed himself into another type of utegate saga. He will do anything to gain and maintain power.
imacca
Feeney and Lamb would be bad ones to lose in the HC as they would both be very expensive by-elections given how marginal they are.
Gallagher doesn’t matter.
Ctar1
Precisely!!
ratsak @ #623 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 3:54 pm
Yes, Turnbull is no doubt a con-man.
Claims the legacy of SSM yet didn’t have the courage of his convictions to do it with a government bill.
His most recent act of destructive dog-whistling laid bare his character for all to see.
daretotread @ #2022 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 3:58 pm
Just the truth, maam! Just the truth.
Diogenes @ #633 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 3:58 pm
Labor will soon have no choice but to be more co-operative with other progressive parties if they want to form part of sustainable progressive Govt partnership.
“It was a state emergency service that set off what is a ‘warning’ system.
No matter what ‘button’ they press all that happens is a warning.
You make it sound like they can launch missiles.”
The button doesn’t launch missiles. But it does scare a lot of people who have guns, and has the potential to scare some people who have buttons that launch missiles.
People do stupid things when they are scared.
Exclusive: Here Is A Draft Of Trump’s Nuclear Review. He Wants A Lot More Nukes.
His first Nuclear Posture Review: more nukes, more posturing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-nuclear-posture-review-2018_us_5a4d4773e4b06d1621bce4c5
3.5k
“Feeney and Lamb would be bad ones to lose in the HC as they would both be very expensive by-elections”
Which is probably good for labor as the LNP have to pay to play too and the swing since the last direction probably makes them relatively safe for Labor, and the LNP spending has the potential to narrow their ‘save the marginals’ strategy. I guess in part it depends on the amount of illegal NSW property developer donations they have been funneling and how much Malcolm of the Caymans is going to chip in (I don’t think it is wrong for him to chip in by the way, just pretty pathetic and desperate).
Was listening to the Nixon ‘Slow Burn’ podcast the other day and there were two elements of that bit of history that I didn’t know, firstly that the media was incredibly slow to pickup the story, effectively collectively blind (bar a few heros who kept digging) and apparently they were forever and writing about seeing a new start a ‘New Nixon’, good government starts from here. It was comforting to know that most of the media pack were then, as now, very limited sheep / pack animals that get carried along rather than lead and that it only takes a couple of goodies in a large pack to eventually get to the truth. Although it seems a lot like, but for, the self-serving letter from one of the conspirators to the judge Nixon might well have got away with it.
Voice Endeavour says: Monday, January 15, 2018 at 4:07 pm
The button doesn’t launch missiles. But it does scare a lot of people who have guns, and has the potential to scare some people who have buttons that launch missiles.
People do stupid things when they are scared.
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Yes Voice Endeavour – it does have a historical background reality with the brilliant Orson Welles radio broadcast : based on the H.G Wells book – War Of The Worlds
The Night That Panicked America :
The Night That Panicked America tells the story of the 1938 broadcast from the point of view of Welles and his associates as they create the broadcast live, as well as from the points of view of a number of different fictional American families, in a variety of locations and from a variety of social classes, who listened to the broadcast and believed the imaginary Martian invasion was actually occurring, with some people even committing suicide.
Voice Endeavour
The people “that push the button” would dealing direct with the military organisation tasked with detecting incoming missiles. That organisation would have been telling them exactly what was happening, nothing.
poroti @ #2033 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 4:25 pm
And it would be nothing a simple as ‘pushing a button’. You get some insight in NASA launch sequences which may be more complicated but similar.
@ poroti – hence why we’re still here, instead of being clouds of ash 😛
There are a few examples through history, where one instrument told a person to push the big button that ends the world. Thankfully, so far every person who has been placed in that situation has decided to delay and find out more information.
but you CANNOT (if you are the person charged with designing Hawaii’s emergency system) just say “well, the military probably has it’s shit together, so I’ll just design my system lazily.”
Apparently the ‘alert’ button is easy to find & push (just one person required), the ‘cancel that alert’ button is nowhere to be found; that’s why it took 38 mins to put out the cancel message.
poroti says: Monday, January 15, 2018 at 4:25 pm
Voice Endeavour
The people “that push the button” would dealing direct with the military organisation tasked with detecting incoming missiles. That organisation would have been telling them exactly what was happening, nothing.
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Cool heads need to go back and watch the brilliant “War Games ” – to understand the total futility of a nuclear war – no one wins ….
The floor has literally dropped out at the .Jakarta Stock Exchange!
#BREAKING: Reports a floor has collapsed at the Jakarta Stock Exchange – Police yet to confirm any causalities
phoenixRED
Obama had given the go ahead for a US$ trillion nuclear “upgrade” so much of it would have been in train before a Trump lobbed in.
boolean bach
Said to be an option on a drop down menu.
“test alarm”, “real alarm” … FMD
CTaR1
‘test lunch’, ‘real lunch’
poroti @ #2039 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 4:50 pm
That is not necessarily an enlargement of capability, just replacing old with new.
The fissile material probably degrades over time and needs replacing.
Also, if you think your accuracy is better, you may feel comfortable downsizing yield.
GG
Black swan event.
CTar1 @ #2040 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 4:54 pm
Both of which sound the alarm, but one says it is a drill.
WWP,
The 4th estate is a self serving myth. A fairy story to con people into thinking the media is on their side.
With very very few exceptions they are the instruments of power. Since proprietors worked out you could become rich and powerful owning a paper and/or become more rich and powerful by buying one (or many) it has been thus. New technologies have just seen the same process repeat. Radio, TV and now on the net. Give your important staff a nice fat paycheck, security and position and you will never be short of willing bodies to identify with the privileged and broadcast their propaganda as the salvation of the masses.
Even in supposedly independent outlets like the Grauniad and the ABC it’s obvious the effect of a nice fat pay packet and the attendant upper middle class lifestyle has on the outlook. A feigned progressive outlook goes no further than your typical inner city identity politics at best and rarely if ever gets to a serious and concerted effort to break the stranglehold on the messaging of those already with power use to entrench it. The powerless are more usually sneered at, condescended, or fed a steady diet or simplistic nonsense from populist frauds that portray themselves as mavericks all the while fortifying the status quo. The framing is invariably supplied by the powerful. The risk of losing your nice cushy job with loads of money and added celebrity is more than enough motivation to prevent the sheep straying too far from the flock.
It’s illustrative that we have yet another film around Watergate out at the moment. Everyone in the media loves to point to that and say ‘this is what we do’, but it’s bullshit. The grand myth of the fearless reporter. That and a few crazy-braves in shit foreign places that have really suffered (and died) to expose the truth are used as the veneer to hide the banal truth. Watergate stands out (and has to be recycled still 40 odd years down the track) BECAUSE it was such a anomalous occurrence.
They ain’t there to rock the boat, they’re there to enjoy the comforts of being the fluffers of the big swinging dicks. Like the Pilot Fish hanging around the jaws of a Great White, the idea that they should or even could not live comfortably off the scraps of the Apex predator simply wouldn’t occur to them. They’re living the good life.
It’s usually only once they’ve been sacked or quit that any journalist has a chance of actually being one.
poroti
I understand it was so.
I wonder why the submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) keeps getting mentioned when the particulars of the review get mentioned.
Missiles like the Harpoon available for surface, air and submarine (the UGM-84, fitted with a solid-fuel rocket booster and encapsulated in a container to enable submerged launch through a torpedo tube) carry a warhead of over 220kgs and if you are a country with the capability to manufacture small nuclear weapons like Israel then the capability has been around for a long time.
“It’s usually only once they’ve been sacked or quit that any journalist has a chance of actually being one”
I can kind of see the theoretical possibilities, but the realities seem more closely realigned to your position, and the truth of you last bit should be self evident even to the media loving types.
Ratsak
It wasn’t long ago that buzzfeed Journo Alice Workman was being questioned as to whether it was the right thing for her to call out Michaelia cash and her office re leaking to the media re the AWU raid.
Apparently the CPG knew about it, but didn’t think it should be reported.
Essential Research is back tomorrow. It will now be conducted fortnightly, so no more weekly rolling average.
You’d think that the 50 Shades of Red would be concerned over falling real wages for au pairs and the like.
But no…