Another random assortment of polling and preselection news to tide us over until the federal polling season resumes:
• Essential Research has broken the poll drought to the extent of releasing state voting intention results, compiled from the polling it conducted between October and December. The results find Labor ahead in all five states, with Tasmania not covered. This includes a breakthrough 51-49 lead in New South Wales, after they were slightly behind in each quarterly poll going back to April-June 2016; a 51-49 lead in Victoria, after they led either 52-48 or 53-47 going back to October-December 2015; a 52-48 lead in Queensland, from primary vote results well in line with the state election held during the period; and a new peak of 57-43 in Western Australia. In South Australia, Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49, from primary vote numbers which are, typically for Essential Research, less good for Nick Xenophon’s SA Best than Newspoll/Galaxy: Labor 34%, Liberal 31%, SA Best 22%.
• The Age has ReachTEL polls of two Victorian state seats conducted on Friday, prompted by the current hot button issue in the state’s politics, namely “crime and anti-social behaviour”. The poll targeted two Labor-held seats at the opposite ends of outer Melbourne, one safe (Tarneit in the west, margin 14.6%), the other marginal (Cranbourne in the south-east, margin 2.3%). After excluding the higher-than-usual undecided (14.5% in Cranbourne, 15.5% in Tarneit), the primary votes in Cranbourne are Labor 40% (down from 43.4% at the last election), Liberal 40% (down from 41.3%) and Greens 7% (up from 4.2%); in Tarneit, Labor 43% (down from 46.8%), Liberal 36% (up from 26.4%), Greens 10% (up from 9.0%). Substantial majorities in both electorates consider youth crime a worsening problem, believe “the main issues with youth crime concern gangs of African origin”, and rate that they are, indeed, less likely to go out at night than they were twelve months ago. The bad news for the Liberals is that very strong majorities in both seats (74.6-25.4 in Tarneit, 66.5-33.5) feel Daniel Andrews would be more effective than Matthew Guy at dealing with the issue.
• Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports on the latest flare-up in an ongoing feud between Ian Goodenough, member for the safe Liberal seat of Moore in Perth’s northern suburbs, and party player Simon Ehrenfeld, whose preselection for the corresponding state seat of Hillarys before the last state election was overturned by the party’s state council. The report includes intimations that Goodenough may have a fight of his own in the preselection for the next election, with those ubiquitous “party sources” rating him a “waste of a safe seat“, particularly in light of Christian Porter’s dangerous position in Pearce.
• Not long after Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters as a Queensland Greens Senator following the latter’s Section 44-related disqualification, the two are set to go head-to-head for preselection at the next election. Sonia Kohlbacher of AAP reports that Ben Pennings, “anti-Adani advocate and former party employee”, has also nominated, although he’s presumably a long shot. The ballot of party members will begin on February 16, with the result to be announced on March 26.
Diogenes
How do you know if what Lamb’s mother has said is true.
Victoria
Note how they accept the label Dutton gave it.
“Melbourne’s African youth crime crisis.”
Mungo in fine form.
https://www.echo.net.au/2018/01/thus-spake-mungo-whos-telling-porkies-now/#.WlwKGoczcvs.twitter
Just to clarify why I was asking earlier re marriage certificate.
Here in the state of Victoria, in order to obtain a full marriage birth or death certificate, you must have authority to do so. In other words, you have to present Proof that you are a party to the certificate being sought.
If you require a certificate on behalf of someone else, you must prove you are authorised to do so by those parties.
If someone is obtaining a certificate on behalf of a deceased person, again you must establish right to do so either as executor of estate or next of kin.
I have no clue what the rules are in other states or in fact the UK.
It will be interesting to know why Ms Lamb could not present her parents marriage certificate when making the renouncement.
Also, from my experience when govt depts request marriage certificates etc., they don’t mean the copy you get from the marriage celebrant, but the certificate issued by Births deaths marriages dept.
briefly says:
Monday, January 15, 2018 at 12:01 pm
I like “beget” and its various correlates….begot, begat, begotten, misbegotten, begetting…there must be a few more too. The addition of be is tonally useful, adding emphasis and meaning too. It is used elsewhere…besmirch, belittle, bedevil, beware, begone….a bewildering array…possibly even bemusing. English is first of all a spoken language. be is an aural device.
Thanks for the reminder of ‘misbegotten’, gotten survives there in modern English.
Also in the phrase ‘Ill gotten gains’.
Poroti
Yep. As I said. The fiberals and msm are in on it together
IMO, the Coalition is a Collection of Gits.
Dinkum Aussie!!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/farmer-rides-for-help-holding-broken-neck-upright-by-hair-20180114-p4yyhc.html
ItzaDream says:
Monday, January 15, 2018 at 12:02 pm
Only last night I read (Tony Kevin’s Return To Moscow) that by 1900
“average life expectancy at birth (in Russia) was just thirty years,
far below the United Kingdom (fifty-two),
Japan (fifty-one) and
Germany (forty-nine); ”
I haven’t been following ‘the things are better’ thread, but those stats did jump out at me.
The low life expectancy at birth is often skewed by high infant mortality rates.
A better measure in my opinion is the median age at death.
And Russian men still have a low median age at death because of excessive alcohol consumption.
The risk of dying before age 55 for those who said they drank three or more half-litre bottles of vodka a week was a shocking 35%.
Overall, a quarter of Russian men die before reaching 55, compared with 7% of men in the UK and about 10% in the United States. The life expectancy for men in Russia is 64 years, placing it among the lowest 50 countries in the world in that category.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/31/russian-men-losing-years-to-vodka
guytaur says:
Monday, January 15, 2018 at 12:05 pm
lizzie
Luckily I have not seen feels used much. Not even on twitter.
In that context of course
‘feels’ is common usage in the US.
Puffytmd says:
Monday, January 15, 2018 at 12:13 pm
I do not like gotten. I am happy with got. Aussies shorten words, not lengthen then.
They do, but then they often add an ‘ie’ or ‘o’ on the end.
I tried to find an Oz expression (I first heard Oz in 1969, on my return to Oz, I had not heard it before) which was longer because of ‘ie’ or ‘o’. No luck.
The best I could come up with was the same number of letters in one case – ‘surfie’ for ‘surfer’ which in any case have different meanings.
Lizzie
All i can say is one big ouch!!
Sadly family friend of one my siblings, is in the process of arranging funeral for their son who came off motor bike in Bali just before Xmas. He was wearing helmet but hit his face and head. Cutting long story short, they managed to medivac him back to the Alfred in Melbourne, but sadly passed away a few days ago.
‘Leasons Learnt’ is a common output of UK military forces debriefings after operations and has been for decades.
Perth is having all the fun.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml
ItzaDream says:
Monday, January 15, 2018 at 12:45 pm
Here’s got and gotten in the same sentence:
Speaking to the Guardian, author who shook the White House faces down critical fire and presidential fury and says: ‘I got to a truth no one else has gotten’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/14/michael-wolff-interview-fire-and-fury-donald-trump
That is delightful!
The only other way I can see to say the same thing is:
‘I got to a truth no one else has got to’
or for those who don’t like ending with a preposition,
‘I got to a truth to which no one else has got’
Which is stilted.
Boerwar
Sparklers!
Good piece from Greg barns in the Hobart Mercury.
http://www.themercury.com.au/news/opinion/talking-point-time-to-challenge-the-type-of-politics-that-plays-the-fear-card/news-story/15a8189419bca7d94981bdd4288ab2e2
Bw
Looks like it’s heading directly for Esperance.
Boerwar
The radar looks spectacular but the rain in Perth is not that heavy. The key is that the system seems to be slow moving so how much we get may depend on how long it hangs around.
I had 6mm from about 5am to 9 and another two since. Rain all day at that rate and it’s a good drink.
There have been falls of 50mm and more in the wheatbelt areas north of Perth.
Vic
“How do you know if what Lamb’s mother has said is true.”
It would be helpful for Lamb if she had proof she had asked for the certificate, otherwise she looks to be in a similar situation to Roberts and his matt damon excuse in not making reasonable efforts.
Reasonable efforts could be taken as what efforts would be expected to be done in renouncing including time frames. If efforts and time frames are delayed stopped by events outside your control then all you have done could be termed reasonable.
Boris
I don’t know much about the Susan Lamb case. suffice to say, that if she required marriage certificate issued in State of Victoria, she would need the authority of the parties to the certificate to give permission for her to get copy of same. I guess that was the main point I was attempting to get across.
Boris
I should add that for eg. In the case of my own parents, they don’t have a certificate as issued from births deaths marriages. The only certificate they have in their possession is the one given to them by the marriage celebrant at the time of their marriage.
If I wanted or needed to get issued copy of same from dept, I would require their authorisation to do so. Now if for some reason, they don’t give me permission, I am not sure what I can do to get a copy.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/truck-industry-demands-12-million-to-tackle-soaring-death-toll-20180109-h0fkso.html
The Gillard government legislated a solution for this, the LNP with the truck industry support overturned it.
Gillards solution was safety based, akin to making seat belt wearing compulsory, the LNP said nup you don’t have to now and the deaths increased 86% in NSW.
What does Dutton have to say about truck drivers being killed.
Victoria
I understand what you are saying about requiring authorisation to get a copy.
Was only pointing out it would be helpful if Lamb had some proof she had tried to get that authorisation, even a email asking for a certified copy or permission to get such to the parents.
What does Dutton have to say about truck drivers being killed.
_____
Wouldn’t it depend on their race?
Until it has a new new occupant the White House could quite fairly be referred to as the Shite House.
Boris
She may not even have asked at all, due to the estrangement that has been reported.
BK
Touche’
I dont know much about that particular case either except for that she required a copy of the certificate and could not get it.
If she was prevented by factors outside her control from renouncing then you would think she would be fine.
Victoria
“She may not even have asked at all, due to the estrangement that has been reported.”
Then I think we are in matt damon territory.
Boris
Yep. We shall have to wait and see how this particular case transpires
though my opinion is only that of a forf looking to start a new career of some sort.
I daresay what proof Lamb has or does not have of her attempts to get her mother’s marriage certificate will be revealed in the High Court in the fullness of time.
Unless of course she decides to come on PB and explain herself … somehow I don’t think that will happen.
No lesser figure than the allegedly eminent barrister Malcolm Turnbull found that second guessing the High Court is fraught with danger.
I am not sure why people spend energy speculating on what was or was not done and arguing what they think are the ramifications of various actions.
As we found in the Canavan case the story that is told for public consumption often takes a different turn by the time it gets to court.
Interesting perspective
John Wren
John Wren
@JohnWren1950
·
31m
Dutton is Australia’s Oliver Cromwell. Like Cromwell, he will slay the ineffective King (Turnbull) and pit citizen against citizen to maintain his fascist power. It’s going to get ugly folks
rossmcg
Everything we say and do on PB usually involves speculation!! Lol………
Vic – Speculation and opinion based on what you know about something is what happens here.
Sometime in the last week a poster on here claimed I needed to provide ‘links’ as evidence to support an opinion I had on some not very important matter.
I simply replied no, I don’t, it’s my opinion on the matter if you’ve got a different one you can provide whatever you want to support your opinion.
If they did I didn’t see or read it and certainly didn’t say I would read if they did post it!
“grin:
Dutton is Australia’s Oliver Cromwell.
Dutton is a soulless opportunist inviting violence against a minority in the same fashion that Jones did with the Cronulla riots, all to secure the PHON preferences in the next election to save his seat.
Boris
With you there that it is about the Dickson rather than the Victorian election.
Ctar1
Just imagine if we all had to provide proof of our opinion everytime we posted a comment. Goodness me. How ridiculous. Now that is funny!!!
The Gillard government legislated a solution for this, the LNP with the truck industry support overturned it.
So the magic ingredient appears to have been $12 Million of the taxpayers’ finest coin. Maybe if PM Gillard had found a way of making that amount end up in their pockets she would have been successful.
Hawaii officials said the problem occurred about 8:05 a.m. Saturday when a worker faced two options from a drop-down computer menu: “Test missile alert” and “Missile alert.”
“In this case, the operator selected the wrong menu option,” agency spokesman Richard Rapoza said.
I hate to go all conspiracy theory on PB, but that is frankly more ridiculous than most conspiracy theories.
I used to be employed building, operating, setting procedures for and testing similar buttons and interfaces. In Trump’s terms – my button was not as big as the Hawaii one, it didn’t convince people the world was ending, just pissed off our customers and maybe did $10k-1M damage depending on the button pressed.
In none of the processes I used, could a single action by a single person lead to the button being used ‘for real’ when you meant to test it.
There was a process for ‘defanging’ the button created by person A. This process was vetted by person B. Person C requested the test occur, which was carried out by person D with person E overseeing.
In no case, was a process developed that only defanged the button in one way. There was always redundancy. i.e. even if the operator picked ‘missile alert’ instead of ‘test missile alert’, there should have been some plan B that stopped it going out.
In no case, was the option for the test visually similar to the option for real. No naming the thign and simply putting ‘test’ on the front of the name. There should have been visual cues after selecting the option that made it VERY obvious which option you have selected.
In no instance, did text hit the customer’s device (for a test or emergency), before a ‘preliminary test’ was sent (i.e. they sent the alert only to their own phone first, they would have noticed that the text said “this is not a drill”.
I honestly can’t believe that any government could be that incompetent.
Trumble is a soulless opportunist inviting violence against a minority in the same fashion that Jones did with the Cronulla riots, all to secure the RWNJ’s silence in his party room to save his job.
Voice Endeavour
Even our simple little computers have a “do you mean it?” if delete accidentally touched.
It doesn’t seem too hard, does it.
Diogenes @ #1838 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 9:01 am
While that is true, especially by that lazy arrogant prick Feeney, it is also true that Shorten, and Labor party headquarters, let themselves down badly. They should have made damn sure that all the paperwork was done, and in reasonable time, or that all reasonable steps had been taken to get it done.
They should have been riding the MPs and candidates very hard from the go on this matter, and not letting up until each and every one of them had supplied the formal paperwork and Labor’s lawyers had confirmed that all due diligence had been done.
Very pissed off at Labor for botching such an easy hit on their opponents. There are no excuses for this sort of sloppiness in such a serious business.
Victoria @ #1984 Monday, January 15th, 2018 – 12:53 pm
It is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Voice Endeavour,
I had similar questions to yours. On the one hand there was the story put about that the system was so antiquated that it should have been up dated long ago but wasn’t so as to save money. No one thought they’d ever need to use it anyway (until Trump came along, sanity preventing MAD had prevailed). Now, however, they have been shown in spades that the populace is so on edge that maybe they need a new updated system, complete with all the inbuilt redundancies that you explained.
On the other hand, with said antiquated system, are we not being told how someone with malign intent had worked their way into the system and had maybe hoped to spark full-blown American retaliation against what would be presumed to be a North Korean attack on Hawaii?
And thankfully the person was taken care of, and the countries who would have been in the firing line were informed, all while lard ass Trump was happily golfing away?
I mean, ISIS wouldn’t even need to have their own bombs that way. They would just need to spark a conflict between those who do. Especially while Trump is POTUS. Just put one of their men into the right position at the right time, using an antiquated system, and BANG!
Victoria
If we are going back to the English civil war then the “Witchfinder General’ Matthew Hopkins might be just as good a pick for Dutto.
That too ratsak
VE Lizzie
Tis holiday season, can easily keep on clicking yes at those times, I’ve done it much to my regret.
C@t
The Lnp should be held accountable for those truck deaths as they tried to hold Rudd accountable for the insulation deaths.
Labor legislated a safety measure, the LNP overturned it and truck deaths jumped 86%.