Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. “Stockholm syndrome” – yes one or two of the journos are affected by it, but the rest are right-wing/conservatives by desire. You don’t get a job in the Australian media unless you fit the profile set out by those that control the country. Real journalists are nowhere near the MSM. Only hacks need apply!

  2. C@tmomma @ #696 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 10:14 am

    There will be more cognitive dissonance about the Turnbull government reshuffle from the media as well compared to how they used to cover Labor government reshuffles. If it was a Labor government, the media lines would be all about incompetent Ministers and poor performers. When it is a Coalition reshuffle it’s all ‘strong performers wanting to take on new challenges’, ‘rising stars’, and ‘fresh talent’.

    Sheesh!

    Thinking exactly the same thing. The avoidance of an air of crisis surrounding this government is in stark contrast to the reaction if Labor were involved.

  3. Jenauthor,
    Job insecurity has a lot to do with journalist’s unwillingness to challenge the Turnbull government. Remember the story a little while ago that Bolt told about Turnbull ringing his bosses to demand they sack Bolt for his continued unfavourable commentary about Turnbull? A mongrel. And I guess that’s why the media feel free to attack Labor. They are not mongrels to them and the media’s jobs don’t depend on Labor.

    Yet.

  4. The only reason we still subscribe to the SMH is the crosswords, which we have as our daily fix.
    Does anyone know if the online version of the Canberra Times has this?
    Have searched but have been unable to find it.
    Am so disgusted by the lack of fair reporting by Fairfax that I really want to stop supporting them.

  5. SOmeone asked about membership of MEAA … I don’t know about now, but until a couple of years ago you couldn’t get a journalistic job at either NewsCorp or Fairfax unless you were a paid-up member.

    I don’t know about the ‘opinion columnist’ non-journalists who are now so dominant in these companies … they might escape the need but no actual journalist with a grading would get a job without being a member.

  6. Quasar says:
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 at 10:25 am
    The only reason we still subscribe to the SMH is the crosswords, which we have as our daily fix.
    Does anyone know if the online version of the Canberra Times has this?
    Have searched but have been unable to find it.

    I get my crossword fix from the Guardian. Their crosswords go back several years.

    I get ‘Rufus’ for preference, but ‘Pan’ is ok too. Most of the others in the Guardian are too hard for me. I take a screen shot and print that out. Their ‘print’ function doesn’t work for me.

    As for DA in Friday’s SMH, if I get three words out I am doing well. I once got one of his out completely, I should have framed it.

  7. Wayfarer @ #664 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    I’m an ALP member but consider the Reason party the best minor-party alternative. Their list of goals on their website are economically progressive – making the tax system more progressive to address income inequality, addressing the inbalance between labour and capital, and ensuring enough money is collected to properly fund public education and health.

    They also support redirecting more funding to public schools and away from private (especially catholic) schools.

    I agree.
    Fiona Patten seems to be quite ALP friendly even to the point of having attended ALP functions before entering parliament. That is where I met her a couple of times. Smart lady.
    Unlike our little Green ‘friends’, I have never heard of her bagging the ALP, despite occasional policy differences.

  8. Interesting article in New Scientist this week titled: effortless thinking thoughtlessly thoughtless.

    Basically it issaying being conservative takes less effort thinking-wise than be progressive. One piece of research showed that the drunker you are the more right you tended to lean as higher order thought processes are not utilised.

    It goes on to say the core values of a conservative: Acceptance of personal responsibility, acceptance of hierarchy, preference for status quo are hard wired into us and to change this takes critical thinking, which is an effort.

    No wonder the LNP wants to nobble universities and are anti-science, they know it will strengthen their cause.

  9. davidwh,
    Because MYEFOs under the Coalition will always get a sympathetic media response and they will contain dodgy heroic assumptions, such as wages growth of >3%! In order to make their dodgy figures look good.

    Then they try and con us by stating their wage growth assumptions are correct… but only if the parliament passes their Corporate Tax Cut! When they said the same thing about Penalty Rate cuts and all that happened was that business owners have trousered the difference.

  10. Ctar1

    I’m not sure pipettes are commonly used in those labs 🙂

    Can’t think I what I might have searched on recently to make them think I need one but maybe my 91 yr old mum has a secret hobby.

  11. guytaur @ #680 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 9:43 am

    ProfTimStephens: Turnbull Government finally releases its climate policy review: says that no new policy needed because ‘it is hard to predict what the Australian and global economy will precisely look like in 2030

    http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/18690271-59ac-43c8-aee1-92d930141f54/files/2017-review-climate-change-policies.pdf

    Gosh, you have to read this report quite closely to see that our emissions have been rising since 2015, and are expected to continue to do so. It is in there, but obscured by never referring to actual emissions, but only to “projected” emissions.

    Get that? Our projected emissions are falling. Our actual emissions are rising, sure – but that’s not important apparently. I’m sure the coral on the Great Barrier Reef will be greatly relieved.

    The rest of the report is largely an advertorial for the government.

    Oh, and electric vehicles are predicted to make up 15% of new vehicle sales by 2030. Those who predicted 100% of the whole fleet would be electric in that time frame will no doubt be a little disappointed to hear that.

    Oh, and buried away at the end of the report is what seems to be a real kick in the teeth – the government plans to change the rules to make it easier for electricity generators to increase their total emissions. It’s a bit obscure, but the rule changes seem to imply that if a generator expands their generation capacity by implementing renewables, they will also be allowed to increase the emissions of their total generation fleet proportionally. In other words, they can emit more C02 from any creaky old fossil-fueled generators they have left. Pretty sneaky, eh? But I don’t really know why they bother being so sneaky – they simultaneously plan to save money by removing any actual auditing of compliance with the rules anyway!

    Welcome to Australia’s new endless summer!

  12. Chuckle.

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 1h1 hour ago

    M Cash in grief counselling. How did she fail to get AG?
    She’s misled parliament, broken the law, got the AFP to illegally raid a union over a 10 year old donation receipt it doesn’t even have to keep. And blamed her staffer? Whom she then promoted to a new PS job.
    Perfect form!

  13. Sohar @ #700 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 10:19 am

    “Stockholm syndrome” – yes one or two of the journos are affected by it, but the rest are right-wing/conservatives by desire. You don’t get a job in the Australian media unless you fit the profile set out by those that control the country. Real journalists are nowhere near the MSM. Only hacks need apply!

    The MSM, certainly where politics is involved, is little more than a protection racket for the conservatives.

  14. OK, we’ve had the by-elections in two pretty-safe Coalparty seats. Now what can we do to trigger off some by-elections in their marginals? Capricornia, Forde and Gilmore all under 1%. Flynn, Robertson, Chisholm, Dunkley, Banks and LaTrobe all under 1.5%, and Dickson (the Potato) and Petrie only just over that. PLEASE, everyone, dig for some s 44 dirt about any of the incumbents! Or s 45 – don’t forget the couple of extra paras in there. We need some by-elections where the Coalists are vulnerable! Otherwise the Turnblimp can keep floating around till maybe May 2019. Urghhh!

  15. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 1h1 hour ago

    The government has known for months it would allow international permits & roll over the ERF. I reported that before they announced the NEG because they were telling stakeholders. Funny you’d leave it to the week before Christmas to confirm it #auspol

  16. Pipette? That’s something I remember from chemistry class, a bit like an eye dropper if I recall. You added liquid one drop at a time to a solution and it turned from blue to red (or someting) as acidity crossed a threthold.

    All I could ever get was brown gunk.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 at 10:40 am
    Don,
    As a DA fan, did you used to watch ‘Letters and Numbers’ as well?

    I am certainly not a DA fan, and I don’t watch TV. I do watch insiders and Q&A occasionally on my computer via Iview.

    I find TV very intrusive, and most people have the volume way too loud. My wife watches TV sometimes, using headphones which I am thankful for, but mostly watches DVDs. She’s working through the complete Charlie Chaplin movies at the moment, and loving it. She’s a movie buff.

    I am getting a dvd player for my desktop for Christmas, so I can then go through her large library of DVDs.

  18. Sorry to keep on posting on Barnaby, but he is such a complete disaster for the country.

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 60m60 minutes ago

    Minister for pork-barreling is a much better fit than Agriculture for Barnaby, a mining shill who colludes in swindling farmers, destroying farms and connives at Big Cotton’s criminal Murray Darling water rorting.
    Safer, too. So far, Coalition only appropriates Labor projects.

    Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 55m55 minutes ago

    The move will give him control of the Federal Government’s multi-billion-dollar inland rail project, says ABC.
    Control? A completely uneconomic pipe dream which could be Barnaby’s NBN.

  19. Bw – Yep. Been to shops, A/C on now and blinds, windows etc set for the day.

    You too, I’d think.

    Saw someone I think you’d know on the TV a couple of days ago – Karl D, now at Managrida. You might have run across him here (finance area in your Dept.) or up there. He worked with/for me for a while.

  20. Bw – Yep. Been to shops, A/C on now and blinds, windows etc set for the day.

    You too, I’d think.

    I was out at Burwood this morning and it was getting pretty steamy in Sydney’s outer inner west, but I’ve got a colleague working remotely from Wagga – he’s not a happy camper today.

  21. Bemused

    Chester will be mightly annoyed. I wonder if he should go rogue. Although not a LNP supporter by any stretch, he was one of the better and more competent performers.

  22. Yes, Bemused, it’s a report of what will supposedly happen when the Turnblimp makes the announcement. I suppose it’s all based on accurate leaks, but it’d be funny if people were just making stuff up.

  23. Bemused

    Anything to do with Gippsland might sway Chester to walk. He is pretty popular down that end of Victoria and many in Gippsland may see this as another kick in the teeth to their long suffering area.

    Don’t know much about Bridget McKenzie’s credentials as deputy leader of the Nationals.

  24. Steven @ #738 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 7:30 am

    Bemused

    Anything to do with Gippsland might sway Chester to walk. He is pretty popular down that end of Victoria and many in Gippsland may see this as another kick in the teeth to their long suffering area.

    Don’t know much about Bridget McKenzie’s credentials as deputy leader of the Nationals.

    She likes guns!!!

  25. PhoenixRed

    And this. What I believed from the get go.

    ·
    33m
    Yep, we’re way past Rosenbergs, Weisband, Hiss here — this is uncharted treachery.

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    This is no longer a question: Putin has executed the greatest intelligence coup of all history.

  26. bemused @ #708 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 10:31 am

    Wayfarer @ #664 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    I’m an ALP member but consider the Reason party the best minor-party alternative. Their list of goals on their website are economically progressive – making the tax system more progressive to address income inequality, addressing the inbalance between labour and capital, and ensuring enough money is collected to properly fund public education and health.

    They also support redirecting more funding to public schools and away from private (especially catholic) schools.

    I agree.
    Fiona Patten seems to be quite ALP friendly even to the point of having attended ALP functions before entering parliament. That is where I met her a couple of times. Smart lady.
    Unlike our little Green ‘friends’, I have never heard of her bagging the ALP, despite occasional policy differences.

    Unlike the ALP, who are financially shackled to big unions and their dealings with big corp, the Reason Party have progressive policy freedom.

  27. Steven @ #738 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 11:30 am

    Bemused

    Anything to do with Gippsland might sway Chester to walk. He is pretty popular down that end of Victoria and many in Gippsland may see this as another kick in the teeth to their long suffering area.

    Don’t know much about Bridget McKenzie’s credentials as deputy leader of the Nationals.

    Chester is in an area where farmers don’t want gas extraction on their land. Maybe he’s being punished for that…?

  28. Ides of March @ #740 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 11:31 am

    Darren Chester was a Nat in favour of SSM. Retribution?

    (Probably cause he was also a Victorian and Mackenzie got elevated)

    I think you are on the right track there.
    I think Mackenzie got the deputy leadership as they wanted to replace a woman with another woman. She would also dramatically lower the average age of their leadership team. Hasn’t struck me as particularly bright but in that lot you don’t need to be.

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