Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. New Wall Street Journal report might totally destroy Republicans’ favorite anti-FBI talking point

    A new report from the Wall Street Journal adds some needed context to FBI Agent Peter Strzok’s text message about the Russia investigation being an “insurance policy” in the event that Donald Trump won last year’s presidential election.

    According to the Journal’s sources, Strzok’s talk of an “insurance policy” against Trump’s electoral victory “was meant to convey that the bureau needed to aggressively investigate allegations of collusion between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia,” and was not intended to “suggest a secret plan to harm the candidate but rather address a colleague who believed the [FBI] could take its time because Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton was certain to win the election.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/new-wall-street-journal-report-might-totally-destroy-republicans-favorite-anti-fbi-talking-point/

  2. Big A Adrian

    I’ve had the same problem for some time.Even with the recommended double incognito through Google.com
    I am also peed off with SMH, which no longer allows any free reads, but says “You have reached your allowed…” after none.

  3. Prominent conservatives shred Trump: Only ‘checks and balances’ have kept him from becoming ‘a dictator’

    In a far-reaching interview with Politico, two long time conservatives who opposed not only the election of President Donald Trump, but his nomination, stated that he has been worse than expected and he would likely have ascended to dictator status were it not for American “checks and balances.”

    According to both conservative Foreign Policy columnist Max Boot and ex-Condoleezza Rice adviser Eliot Cohen, Trump is “incredibly erratic and unpredictable,” and has put the country at more risk since being elected.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/prominent-conservatives-shred-trump-only-checks-and-balances-have-kept-him-from-becoming-a-dictator/

  4. Good morning Bludgers from a c@t with a ‘shrill’meow. 😉

    Could a South Australian give me some ideas about how NXT’s preferences went last year in the federal election, or how SAB’s preferences are allocated if they have indicated that already? Ta.

  5. JohnWren1950: I wonder how many Australian journalists are members of their union, @withMEAA but still effectively campaign for the anti-Union @LiberalAus through hopelessly biased pro-LNP reporting? #scabs #auspol

  6. What awaits us if Mike Pence replaces Donald Trump

    When (and if) Donald J. Trump leaves office – via impeachment, criminal indictment and conviction, resignation, or the 25th amendment – Mike Pence, his Vice President will become President. Mike Pence does not have a secret agenda – he is all out there: “My Christian faith is at the very heart of who I am

    But the real danger of a Pence presidency is how seriously he takes the radical “religious” right’s wish list, and how he might try to impose a narrow set of religious rules on a wary population. Pence believes he is in possession of God’s Truth, and why let a pesky Constitution, or an annoying Bill of Rights stand in the way of God’s will? Heaven help us.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/what-awaits-us-if-mike-pence-replaces-donald-trump/

  7. Some good news

    Award winning Iranian cartoonist Ali Dorani, known as Eaten Fish, has left Papa New Guinea and is now in safety. Dorani has spent the past four years in a refugee detention camp on Manus Island, Papua New Guniea.

    “I have left PNG. It was a long journey but I am safe now. I am thinking about my friends in Manus Island and Port Moresby. Thank you to my supporters and people who worked to make this journey happen.”
    Statement from Eaten Fish 18.December2017

    https://icorn.org/article/manus-island-cartoonist-eaten-fish-safety-icorn-residency

  8. Thx Zoomster, that’s the one I was looking for. My son pointed it out when we drove past one day and I was trying to find it again in street view. Lovely old suburb, which I fear will be ‘dozed’ like aimilar areas. I was staggered to see the damage done to the streetscapes during a recent trip through Cantebury. Lovely old homes demolished to be replaced with mausoleums that honour the wealth of the new owners!

  9. HelenErrington1: @PhillipCoorey @jamesmassola Likewise @PhillipCoorey the swing against LNP in Bennelong will cost them between 24-28 seats if replicated in a general election. And have u seen Newspoll, number 25. Looks like ur man is on the skids. We are not listening to you or him.

  10. I’m an ALP member but consider the Reason party the best minor-party alternative. Their list of goals on their website are economically progressive – making the tax system more progressive to address income inequality, addressing the inbalance between labour and capital, and ensuring enough money is collected to properly fund public education and health.

    They also support redirecting more funding to public schools and away from private (especially catholic) schools.

  11. deniseshrivell: Another day of #auspol knowing there will be little to no objective MSM analysis & commentary. Huge gap in the Australian news media landscape @CBS ?

  12. Did I read that Barnaby is being given Infrastructure?

    We can look forward to dams on every river and new towns springing up in the outback. 😆

  13. Phoenix

    For once we can agree.

    Pence is prbably scarier than Trump.

    Now someone here was posting that Trump was changing IS for the long term by appointing judges. This is true but i doubt Trump has the competence or patience to do this and I have read that it is Pence’s work.

  14. I sometimes wonder how the algorithm for displaying the ads works. Ladbrokes & Kogan I can understand but why would I be offered a Personal Pipetting Robot from Opentrons?

  15. The New Democracy Party and the Australian Employment Party have excellent policy positions if you are progressive on both economic policy and social policy.

    The Greens are neoliberals on bicycles. If the NDP fields candidates in the 2019 federal election, they are worth a primary vote.

  16. lizzie/Big A

    On Windows10 & Chrome.

    I can still get to the SMH articles via an Igcognito window and searching using text from the article title ie christian-porter-firms-to-replace-george-brandis-in-malcolm-turnbull-reshuffle

    ??

  17. Oh dear its not going well. January means one less Senate vote. Senator McCain missing due to health would be reason for delay is my guess.

    Of course that must mean they are not so sure of the numbers now.

    AP: BREAKING: Vice President Mike Pence postpones trip to Middle East until mid-January, citing upcoming Senate tax vote.

  18. If we are talking about Minor parties that we support, especially down ticket in the Senate, then The Pirate Party always gets my support. They are also Civil Libertarians but their particular emphasis is on digital freedom and transparency. They are also more low key than the Reason Party and not focussed around a particular personality. I would put a link up to their website but I don’t know how to do it on my phone. I will say that it is very good, as you would expect from IT savvy people.

    I have also always supported the HEMP Party, ever since I could vote. Glad to have that support vindicated wrt it’s medicinal properties and hoping
    that changes in other countries may eventually flow to Australia.

  19. Re Barry Humphrey’s Camberwell abode. His initial family home was on the western side of the very leafy Christobel Street about half way between Camberwell and Riversdale Roads. Used to pass it regularly on my walk to and from Camberwell HS in late 50s and early 60s. As others have pointed out, it was in the so-called golf links estate (the estate replaced the golf course).

  20. This is a terrible tragedy. Rory took his own life. Rory and MOH were pretty close.

    There will be a memorial at The Riverside Theatre Parramatta on Friday 22nd at 11 am.

    In a rare move, O’Donoghue’s family revealed that he had taken his own life after struggling with mental illness for many years.

    “We hope that by sharing this we can bring more awareness to the serious issue of mental illness and that we can support those in need,” his daughter Jessica wrote on Facebook.

    “He touched so many people with his light and talent. He was surrounded by so much love, it’s such a tragedy that his illness prevented him from feeling it.”

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/arts/rory-odonoghue-brought-multiple-talents-to-aunty-jack-show/news-story/617b79bef4d297f195889293426ad9ee

  21. I recall very vividly that everytime a MYEFO report was released by team Labor,the msm and the fiberals went into a frenzy.
    Again as Per usual with the release of MYEFO by the fiberals, it has passed without a wimper.
    Meanwhile, housing costs,energy costs, health, education etc have soared,and wages flatlined again.

  22. ProfTimStephens: Turnbull Government finally releases its climate policy review: says that no new policy needed because ‘it is hard to predict what the Australian and global economy will precisely look like in 2030’ 1/2 environment.gov.au/system/files/r…
    ProfTimStephens: The review also says that ‘the Government will start developing in
    2018 a long-term emissions reduction strategy by 2020’. In other words Australia still has no comprehensive plan or policy to cut emissions 2/2 environment.gov.au/system/files/r…

    http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/18690271-59ac-43c8-aee1-92d930141f54/files/2017-review-climate-change-policies.pdf

  23. victoria @ #679 Tuesday, December 19th, 2017 – 5:42 am

    I recall very vividly that everytime a MYEFO report was released by team Labor,the msm and the fiberals went into an frenzy.
    Again as Per usual with the release of MYEFO by the fiberals, it has passed without a wimper.
    Meanwhile, housing costs,energy costs, health, education etc have soared,and wages flatlined again.

    And debt continues to rise!

  24. Barnes IGD

    Yep. I didnt say it but that was my point regarding the msm and fiberals freaking out when Labor released the latest MYEFO. Yet, debt continues to rise exponentially and it is a meh

  25. Former DNI James Clapper: Putin’s ‘theatric’ call to Trump shows he’s handling Trump as ‘an asset’

    Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on Monday suggested Vladimir Putin is handling Donald Trump “as an asset,” arguing the Russian president’s “theatric gesture of a phone call” to thank his American counterpart shows the ex-KGB officer is “managing a pretty important account.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/former-dni-james-clapper-putins-theatric-call-to-trump-shows-hes-handling-trump-as-an-asset/

  26. VicBergerIV: @TwitterSafety @jack What the fuck are you doing, man? Cernovich and Posobiec are still on your platform. At this very moment, they’re running a massive smear campaign pushing a lie that a so-called “Antifa blogger” tried to kill people on a train by sabotaging the track. Great work, Jack.

  27. I have found that if you want to read the SMH online go to the Canberra Times website which is not paywalled. Most stories are exactly the same. Some articles do not appear, but the majority do.

  28. phoenixRed

    Yep. Clapper is on the money. I immediately thought the same thing.

    Looking at the whole picture, it is plainly obvious as to what is going on. It is also clear that Mueller has a game plan. It just seems to be taking so damn long!

  29. Plus, the Liberals’ lines are swallowed without question by the media. Just look at the ‘interview’ with Matthias Cormann on the ABC this morning.

    ‘We have a credible path to a Surplus in 20/21.’

    ‘Only Corporate Tax Cuts will produce growth in wages.’

    ‘We are no longer needing to borrow to fund Recurrent Expenditure.’

    There are so many questions that need asking about those assumptions but they aren’t being asked. Even the one time that an attempt was made to stop the advertorial for the government, Cormann just arrogantly told the host of ABC Breakfast to pipe down and let him finish!

    Which she did.

    There has to be a greater emphasis on real time challenge of the arrogant Turnbull government next year by the media. For Australian democracy’s sake.

  30. victoria says: Tuesday, December 19, 2017 at 9:59 am

    phoenixRed

    Yep. Clapper is on the money. I immediately thought the same thing.

    ******************************************************************

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    To be clear: our country’s longest-serving IC boss, a man with 50 years in the spook trade, just publicly called POTUS a Kremlin asset.

    With this, Clapper is speaking for those still serving in the IC who can’t.

    Since pretty much every spook agrees.

  31. Australian media (esp CPG) suffer from Stockholm syndrome when if comes to the Coalition. If they dare to ‘question’ govt assertions they’re told to get back in their box … and they do, meekly.

  32. There will be more cognitive dissonance about the Turnbull government reshuffle from the media as well compared to how they used to cover Labor government reshuffles. If it was a Labor government, the media lines would be all about incompetent Ministers and poor performers. When it is a Coalition reshuffle it’s all ‘strong performers wanting to take on new challenges’, ‘rising stars’, and ‘fresh talent’.

    Sheesh!

  33. Only Corporate Tax Cuts will produce growth in wages.

    Why isn’t anyone ever asked to show their workings?

    Cutting Corporate taxes will increase after tax profits on that part of profits companies can’t or don’t want to hide. They could lead to increases in dividends, much of which will go overseas. I don’t know why the company would hire more staff when they can continue to squeeze their existing staff as they do now, outsource or automate (some of the extra investment perhaps).

    On the other hand, the cuts will squeeze public finances and will need to be made up for cuts elswhere – like health, education and welfare – or add to the debt.

    I assert that any benefit from tax cuts will be kept by the owners and managers of companies in the form of bigger salaries and bigger bonuses for senior management and in higher dividends. I can’t prove it, but it seems credible and mirrors recent experience. Those who assert that cutting corporate taxes creates more jobs and/or increases wages make no attempt make no attempt to justify their assertion and they mostly aren’t challenged.

    So, there’s a CEO with a bigger after-tax profit, what do you think he* is likely to do:
    – recruit more staff
    – grant himself and senior management bigger bonuses
    – increase wages of their staff
    – give himself and his direct reports a bigger pay increase?
    – increase dividends (which will go overwhelmingly to a few big shareholders).

    * probably ‘he’

  34. John Kelly at AIMN has a look at Scrott’s MYEFO spiel.

    “Scott Morrison’s MYEFO released today and his speech outlining his government’s “achievements” leaves one breathless for its ignorance, its deception and his own arrogance.

    Morrison’s ability to waffle and sound convincing knows no bounds, yet he speaks such rubbish in macroeconomic terms, that he drags the rest of us down with him.

    A terrible deception has been perpetrated on the Australian people. We have been led to believe that we borrow our own currency from foreign nations, that the money gathered from borrowing and collected from taxing, funds spending.”

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/12/18/newspoll-53-47-labor-10/

  35. I always give the Sex Party a high preference on my Senate Ballot paper (usually no.2 – ALP ‘how to vote’ be damned) but the Reason Party seems to be lacking … a certain type of appeal …

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