Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Relief for Malcolm Turnbull from Bennelong, but none from Newspoll, which records yet another stable result.

Courtesy of The Australian, the final Newspoll of the year is something of a non-event, with two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, primary votes unchanged at 36% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, and the only move being a one point drop for One Nation to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are also unmoved, at 32% approval and 57% disapproval, while his lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 39-33 to 41-34. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 32%, and up two on disapproval to 56%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1669.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

996 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 20
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  1. Elaugaufein gets very angry when Bw takes the piss just because it always gets an incensed reaction from rusted-on Greens.

    His basic argument that I mentioned earlier in the day is this –

    It’s not the whole thing but there’s something to Boerwar’s suggestion that if the Greens didn’t exist that a good number of them would be supporters of one or the other of the major parties and there would be much stronger internal ‘push’ within the major parties to do things about climate change. He suggests the votes of those who place ‘climate change’ as their number one priority when voting are therefore now ‘stranded’.

    A viable argument, I think

    This is a quite reasonable proposition worthy of a least some consideration.

  2. Asha

    While obviously every electorate has a mix of people, most have special characteristics which set them apart.

    Brisbane electorates are not very typical of those in other states since as you say they have a wider range of housing types and incomes. Most in Sydney are less heterogeneous.

    Also you forget ethnic enclaves which do make a huge difference- especially in Sydney. With a 25% Chinese population the closest Brisbane equivalent to Bennelong would be Sunnybank.

  4. Oh and in case anyone cares

    The Reason Party is the former (Australian) Sex Party. It was born as pushback to both religious prudery on the right and the rise of the SWERF (Sex Worker Excluding Radical Feminists) on the left. As a party it’s distinctly libertarian though they seem unable to decide if they are left or right libertarian for more than a couple of months at a time, my vague impression is that outside the sex work industry they’ve been more right libertarian than left libertarian overall.

    They do have a pretty solid record on social issues though, especially LGBTI+ rights, but also abortion and euthenasia.

  5. Ctari

    I think it is a bit of a chicken and egg situation. Which came first – the exit of the green left from the ALP to form the greens or the formation of the Greens which dragged greens from labor.

    I think the evidence shows the first. if you look at the State seat of Balmain in the heart of Sydney Green territory its first move from labor was towards an independent ie Dawn Fraser. Sure there were special factors – the high profile candidate and the er um oddites of the ALP member (he is an old friend but I admit a little odd) – however I think the election of Fraser as an independent was a harbinger of the rise of the greens in the inner city. Ted Mack also to an extent.

  6. Elaugaufein – The ‘Sex Party. They have been known to come up with a lot of decent ideas and not by any means limited to LGBTI stuff.

  7. In terms of Labor losing votes from previous Labor favouring groups you could make an argument about the Democrats too. It was an odd party in the decade or so leading up to its annihilation with a pretty heavy left wing for a party that in many ways started as something similar to the Libs DLP. Those people didn’t spring fully formed from nowhere.

  8. daretotread @ #595 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 7:59 pm

    Well Barney and Confessions

    Thankyou for proving my point.

    Clearly neither of you have comprehension skills or capacity to follow an argument of view things in perspective.

    It should be obvious to anyone with year 9 maths/english that what I wrote was obvious. If in 1950 less than 2% of the population went to university and few finished school, then to have a law degree or any professional qualification or to have self taught yourself by reading the classics then you could be considered to be highly educated ie perhaps in the top 5%. In today’s world the top 5% will have Phds or higher several weighty publications and perhaps a professorship. That should be obvious.

    So, we are more highly educated now.

    Therefore whereas in 1960 Whitlam, Evatt, Menzies etc wee considered highly educated by virtue of the fact of their law degrees (usually a combined BA/Law) the equivalent these days is not a basic law degree.

    So, they were less highly educated than many now and would today be considered ordinary.

    I am not sure whether you lack logic and reasoning capacity or have poor comprehension, but I get tired of people like you totally missing the point of my posts either because you are incapable of understanding or because you are blinded by hatred of me personally such that you willfully mis understand.

    Perhaps it is all three,

    Their is a point?

    Or maybe it’s hiding behind your poor spelling, punctuation and grammar.

  9. CTar1
    Sure, there are definitely worse parties out there. I think I voted for them in the Senate once*, but Queensland, so my deciding factor between 3 or 4 parties was who had the least fucked up Group Ticket and ended up somewhere non-toxic before somewhere very toxic.

    * But “rusted-on” or something as you so cleverly observed so that probably didn’t happen and this post is all a dream sequence.

  10. DTT – I was thinking a few years ago somewhatlike the Bw basic proposition and sort of tested it against the idea of there being a ‘NBN Party’. I couldn’t equate that in the same way. It didn’t work for me …

    The ‘what would be the effect’ for me not conclusive but it’s a viable idea.

    Trog – Would it help if I se send you a shovel? You could go ‘thermal’.

  11. Barney / DTT
    For the record: It was pretty clear to me that dtt was referring to the social status of educational attainment of them vs now , not the objective relative level of knowledge.

  12. Elaugaufein

    I’ve been giving the Green my second preferences in both Federal and most ACT elections for many years. They pissed me off however in the last ACT election with the ‘quality’ of the people they put up. If the Rat was available for me to give 2nd preference to in that election he would have got it. Despite his frivolous sense of humor (that he should try to restrain a bit – people who havent been around for a while here think he’s serious when he really is joking) he’s a serious contributor who wants to be in on the ‘action’ and get things done.

  13. Elaugaufein

    The Democrats … Janine Haines just giving up and committing political suicide was madness.

    Why didn’t she just resign and leave the others to play-on. Instead she just bought the whole lot down. FMD. Appalling stuff.

  14. Elaugaufein @ #604 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 11:17 pm

    Oh and in case anyone cares

    The Reason Party is the former (Australian) Sex Party. It was born as pushback to both religious prudery on the right and the rise of the SWERF (Sex Worker Excluding Radical Feminists) on the left. As a party it’s distinctly libertarian though they seem unable to decide if they are left or right libertarian for more than a couple of months at a time, my vague impression is that outside the sex work industry they’ve been more right libertarian than left libertarian overall.

    “Right libertarian” like Rand Paul?

    I’m somewhat baffled about what a right-leaning libertarian would be. All I can think of are the Rand Paul types who think libertarianism means giving businesses the liberty to do whatever the fuck they want and throwing individual liberties to the wolves of local governments so that minorities can be persecuted under the guise of empowering the people. That doesn’t square with what I understand of Sex Party policies and positions, particularly around LGBTI rights.

    If I were to formally affiliate with any political party, Sex/Reason is the one I’d go for. But not if they’re suddenly all Rand Paul type crazies.

  15. a r –

    But not if they’re suddenly all Rand Paul type crazies.

    The sex party here not like that at all. Quite sensible most of the time.

  17. A R
    They have tended to be a touch Rand Paulish at times economically yeah*. But as I said the party does a weird dance between Left and Right Libertarianism. The Right Libertarian vote in Australia is either anaemic or locked up somewhere pretty hard because our Libertarian parties (other than the Lib Dems) tend to have their votes crater when they move too far to the right (see also Wikileaks Parties impressive self destructive nose dive).

    *I’m probably being a tad unfair here adapt appropriately for the Australian context where our right wing parties are generally less completely bug fuck nuts than the US.

  19. Lovey says:
    Monday, December 18, 2017 at 10:22 pm
    Briefly

    Just ignore them then, as you say. Simple.

    I usually do. But sometimes a bludger has to do what a bludger has to do.

  20. Elaugaufein says:
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 at 12:37 am
    Barney / DTT
    For the record: It was pretty clear to me that dtt was referring to the social status of educational attainment of them vs now

    That makes sense. d is a helluva snob when it comes to anything intellectual.

  24. Good Morning

    I am dreading the new minsitry Dutton is taking over. The election is too far away for my liking with him in charge of the new super ministry.

    Christian Porter won’t be a good Attorney General either if the Robodebt is any guide to go by.

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    SA Best is on track to outpoll Labor and the Libs if it runs candidates in most seats in South Australia, Newspoll finds. We’re in for a very interesting election here! Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/xenophon-best-daylight-second-sa-newspoll-shock-for-alp-and-libs/news-story/f0793f3a78e67b60e5d6b2afa690f19a
    Peter Martin takes the wind out of Morrison’s sails after the release of MYEFO.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/myefo-more-money-but-nowhere-near-enough-to-fund-tax-cuts-20171217-h06aiq.html
    As does Jennifer Hewett. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/budget-update-more-about-politics-than-dollars-20171218-h06pk8
    And the return to annual wages growth of 3 per cent or more has been pushed back from next year to the second half of 2019, underscoring that household incomes remain the budget’s weakest link. Google.
    /news/economy/revised-budget-wage-growth-still-to-optimistic-say-economists-20171218-h06j8d
    The Coalition will dump more than half a billion dollars in welfare reforms but expects to pocket savings by targeting a new debt recovery method at families.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/coalition-dumps-580m-in-welfare-reforms-but-targets-families-in-new-ones-20171218-h06hmh.html
    And Simon Birmingham has revealed $2.1 billion in revised cuts to universities as he scraps the former Gillard government’s demand-driven system, a move one education expert says is “much worse” than the Coalition’s now-dumped May budget reforms.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/12/18/new-university-cuts-budget-update/
    James Massola looks at the possible ministerial changed to be announced today. Also to be announced today is the government’s climate change review.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christian-porter-firms-to-replace-george-brandis-in-malcolm-turnbull-reshuffle-20171218-h06kib.html
    Michelle Grattan also has a look.
    https://theconversation.com/brandis-off-to-london-as-turnbull-prepares-his-reshuffle-89295
    In this week’s Guardian Essential poll thee are a lot of issues that the public has strong feelings on.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/19/coalition-trails-labor-as-corporate-tax-cuts-fail-to-win-voters-guardian-essential-poll
    Eryk Bagshaw writes that housing investment will fall further from record levels into negative rates of growth next year, as the Sydney and Melbourne markets prepare for a downturn following the government crackdown on investors.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/midyear-budget-update-housing-investment-rates-to-fall-raising-prospect-of-longterm-downturn-20171217-h06al0.html
    Chip le Grand lifts the lid on Mayor Robert Doyle. Not good. Google.
    /national-affairs/state-politics/how-councils-boozy-tuesdays-left-lord-mayor-robert-doyle-in-strife/news-story/063da4906ebdf54d14806cb3427c33e3
    The ugly rise of racism in the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/how-white-nationalists-supersized-racism-to-spark-a-movement-20171217-h069nr.html
    Allegations of widespread wage fraud have sunk troubled franchising giant Retail Food Group to the bottom of the S&P ASX 200, putting it at risk of being dropped from the benchmark index.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/wage-fraud-claims-dunk-retail-food-group-to-bottom-of-asx-200-20171218-p4yxt8.html
    Jenna Price is concerned that by the time the Turnbull government is booted from office, the people who speak out on our behalf will be silenced. They will be unable to campaign on poverty, health or the Coalition’s pathetic attitude to the environment. Jenna is one pissed off lady!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-governments-holiday-plan-to-silence-criticism-from-charities-20171217-h06bzx.html
    Laurie Patton calls for a bipartisan rethink to fix the NBN mess, taking on relentless attacks from ‘The Australian’ along the way. Read it and weep.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/laurie-patton-why-i-took-on-the-australians-gun-technology-writer,11039
    The backlash against the recent US net neutrality change is reaching boiling point.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/backlash-to-fccs-internet-attack-has-reached-boiling-point,11040
    Susie O’Brien says that the Catholic Church should be forced to change. She gives Dennis Hart a serve. Google.
    /news/opinion/susie-obrien/the-catholic-church-must-be-forced-to-change-writes-susie-obrien/news-story/be0f54722a9c3579f79f1771cdaa71b7
    And Paul Syvret writes that Canon law must not be allowed to override the law of the land any more than halakha law, sharia law or any other religious doctrine should be allowed to take precedence over secular legislation. Priests may absolve and God may be all forgiving, but justice must first be served in the real world. Google.
    /rendezview/the-catholic-churchs-denial-continues-to-run-deep/news-story/d9fb9398d98fbd3855fa29fb22d240b6
    Reverend Dr Stephanie Dowrick, who is a writer, social commentator and a not-entirely lapsed Catholic. Tells us that sexist blindness stands in the way of action on child abuse in the Church.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sexist-blindness-stands-in-the-way-of-action-on-child-abuse-in-the-church-20171218-h06gja.html
    Worldwide coal demand has suffered its biggest-ever fall as the global revolution under way in energy eats into the market. Google.
    /business/mining-energy/demand-for-coal-suffers-a-record-fall-over-past-two-years/news-story/7a9db5d9366484535f8bfed168dece99

    Cartoon Corner

    Using a different artistic style, Matt Golding goes to the Oval Office.

    John Shakespeare and John Alexander’s gaffe.

    Three contributions from Mark David.



    Paul Zanetti with some advice for Trump.

    One from the US on Trump’s sexual harassment endeavours.

    Matt Golding and “trickle-up” economics.

    Two more from Golding.


    Sean Leahy and Turnbull’s Bennelong triumphalism.

    David Pope on the MYEFO.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    And some nice work by Pat Clement on the somewhat derivative comment from the government on debt reduction.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/882b2a9f6f8fa0bed507a43b30d3eedf

  26. Tragicaly another Simpson prediction comes to pass.
    CNN: The NTSB considers the Amtrak derailment to be a “major incident” and is getting ready to dispatch a 20-member go-team departing from Washington, D.C., this evening for Washington state, according to an NTSB official cnn.it/2yTXNM0 pic.twitter.com/OyHiMmEmOX

  27. I have not followed Rand Paul much but his father was is a fairly clear cut Libertarian in it full sense.

    He is an economic let the market rip type person which is ghastly but also extends this to personal freedoms (esp drugs) and also r the military ie no government interventions in foreign wars.

    By and large however I find libertarian philosophy pretty hard to take. I would be wary of the Reason Party if it has incorporated economic libertarians.

  29. EdKrassen: JUST IN: Senator Chuck Schumer says there will be a Senate Vote to overturn the FCC’s ruling on #NetNeutrality — Only a simple majority will be required to overturn the ruling.

  30. DTT

    Given the history of the sex party I find these reports of the Libertarian economic thing after the name change to the Reason Party pretty amazing.

    If true of course I see them falling apart. I just don’t see the progressive agenda of the Sex party working with a Libertarian economics model.

  31. The Australian Sex Party (soon to be renamed Reason Party[1]) is an Australian political party founded in 2009 in response to concerns over the increasing influence of religion in Australian politics.[2][3] The party was born out of an adult-industry lobby group, the Eros Association. Its leader, Fiona Patten, was formerly the association’s CEO.[4] Patten describes the party as a “civil libertarian alternative”.[5] Patten is a veteran campaigner on issues such as censorship, equality, and discrimination.[6][7] Patten was elected to the Victorian Legislative Council at the 2014 state election.

    The party was briefly federally deregistered by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) on 5 May 2015, after an audit found that it could not demonstrate that it met the statutory requirement of 500 members, but was re-registered in July the same year.[8][9] The Sex Party is registered at state level in Victoria, where it has parliamentary representation, and in the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory. The Australian Sex Party voluntarily relinquished its registration for federal elections in August 2017.[10]

    Ahead of the 2018 Victorian state election, the party will change its name to the Reason Party.[1] The late Australian politician Don Chipp’s youngest daughter, Laura Chipp, will contest the 2017 by-election in the Victorian electorate of Northcote, representing the Reason Party.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Sex_Party

    Note not economic libertarian.

  32. Another sign the Reason Party are not the nutty libertainism of the US.

    The Sex Party supports vaccination to protect public health and reduce the spread of preventable diseases. In a 2016 response to the Australian Vaccination-Skeptics Network’s Meryl Dorey, the Sex Party stated:[36] “Choosing not to vaccinate your children amounts to medical neglect; this is a serious ethical issue”.[37]

  33. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 12h12 hours ago

    ABC 7:30 brazenly runs a party political promo on behalf of an incompetent, arrogant, out of touch Turnbull govt.
    “Turned a corner” ? FFS
    Spare us. The only thing the MPs in this government know how to turn – is how to turn a dollar out of rorting their allowances. Disgraceful

  34. Elaugaufein says:
    Tuesday, December 19, 2017 at 12:37 am
    Barney / DTT
    For the record: It was pretty clear to me that dtt was referring to the social status of educational attainment of them vs now , not the objective relative level of knowledge.
    ——————————————————

    I think her later posts make it very clear DTT was talking about the objective level of knowledge

    “What a load of drivel

    The stuff taught in University these days would have been junior high school stuff in my time and in my parents era (the 20s)would have been primary school. The literacy skills of many especially the foreign students is abysmal and I can say with confidence that at least on kid with entry into Uni had a literacy standard that was bested by my kids by the time they were 8 and a work ethic that was non existent.

    While the maths and science curriculum are still reasonable enough, the English and history standard is abysmal.

    Oddly enough I have an old physiology text that my mother used in JUNIOR High – she never got past intermediate – and it was about 2nd year Uni Anatomy standard.”

  39. CBSNews: LeBron James wears “equality” shoes — one black, one white, with “equality” in gold capital letters — during game, saying afterward his choice of footwear was related to the game being played about a mile from President Trump’s White House cbsn.ws/2yQyGJT pic.twitter.com/Hz937vMHSM

  40. ResistantJen‏
    @conceravota

    So a Coalition govt is giving r-w think tank Menzies Institute $7M but complains that GetUp! sometimes assists ALP when they agree with a campaign. Sigh. 1929 Germany anyone? #auspol

  41. Boerwar @ #431 Monday, December 18th, 2017 – 7:52 pm

    p
    Yep. And not only that, an increase in debt is announced to be a cut in debt!

    Classic out of 1984

    It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grammes a week.

    And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grammes a week.
    Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours?

    Yes, they swallowed it. Parsons swallowed it easily, with the stupidity of an animal. The eyeless creature at the other table swallowed it fanatically, passionately, with a furious desire to track down, denounce, and vaporize anyone who should suggest that last week the ration had been thirty grammes.

  42. PeeBee

    Opening sentence of “More Please”, Humphries’ autobiography..

    ‘I was born at Number 38 Christowel Street…in Camberwell.”

    The family later moved a few doors up.

    I used to deliver groceries in the area, and had the delight a couple of years ago, when my son was furnishing his flat, of visiting one of the homes in Christowel St.. It appeared to be in original condition, down to the paintwork in the kitchen – a real step back in time.

    One of the other streets in the estate (can’t remember which one) was famed for its lavendar hedges. Every nature strip had one, and it was heavenly driving through the street when they were in full bloom.

  43. Oh, and anything more “Kooyong” (knowing the area as I do – we lived in both Kew and Camberwell for a few years, as well as delivering groceries to every inch of it) than that area would be hard to find.

  45. Sydney pubsters may be in for some “fun” with their trains.
    .
    .
    ‘Gridlocked and unworkable’: Dire warning for Sydney’s trains from former top execs

    In an analysis released under freedom-of-information laws, the former rail heavyweights warn that the metro train plans will result in “degradation of the robustness and reliability” of Sydney’s existing heavy rail network, and “ultimately lead to the total network becoming gridlocked and unworkable”………..The former executives include Ron Christie, the director-general for rail who wrote a landmark report on Sydney’s train system in 2001. ”
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/gridlocked-and-unworkable-dire-warning-for-sydneys-trains-from-former-top-execs-20171213-h03omz.html

  46. wrt the google search strings for the Oz articles bk posts… I used to be able to open the article this way. However lately I just get transferred to the oz subscribe page. Even when I use incognito browser. Anyone know a way around this? (without having to subscribe to the oz!)

  47. Oops – its warmer than you think:
    It turns out the temperatures recorded at Utqiaġvik over that time were warmer than had ever seen before. So much so, in fact, that an automated computer system set up to police data and remove irregularities had flagged it as unreal and excluded it from the report.
    http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/12/arctic-temperatures-are-rising-so-fast-computers-dont-believe-theyre-real/

    It turns out it wasn’t the station that was broken. It was the climate.

  48. Ex-intel agent says Trump team damned itself by ignoring FBI on Russia: ‘We’re going to keep that as evidence’

    A former counterintelligence agent says that President Donald Trump’s former campaign team may be in deep trouble after they ignored FBI warnings that Russia would try to infiltrate the campaign.

    NBC News reported on Monday that weeks after Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee for president, the FBI notified the campaign that foreign agents, including Russians, would “try to spy on and infiltrate his campaign.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/ex-intel-agent-says-trump-team-damned-itself-by-ignoring-fbi-on-russia-were-going-to-keep-that-as-evidence/

  49. Just out of interest, one of the homes in the Golf Links Estate (which was developed by Humphries’ father) recently sold for $3.4 million.

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