Bennelong by-election live

Live coverage of the count for the Bennelong by-election.
Projected ALP swing Projected 2PP ALP win probability
PRIMARY VOTE
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
#
%
Swing
#
%
Proj.
Swing
Robinson (ALA)
623
0.9%
Folitarik (SPP)
827
1.1%
Jansson (FUT)
902
1.2%
Alexander (LIB)
31,901
44.1%
-5.9%
39,195
54.2%
54.1%
-5.6%
Keneally (ALP)
26,290
36.3%
+7.4%
33,172
45.8%
45.9%
+5.6%
Platter (APEP)
149
0.2%
Alick (GRN)
5,000
6.9%
-2.0%
Ziebell (AAHP)
622
0.9%
Fels (NCP)
116
0.2%
Richa (ACP)
3,251
4.5%
Cao (CDP)
2,299
3.2%
-3.5%
Golding (AUP)
386
0.5%
FORMAL
72,366
Booths reporting on primary vote (out of 41)
38
Booths reporting on two-party preferred (out of 41)
38
Formal votes counted as % of enrolment (106,582)
67.9%

Summary

All I have to add at this stage is the chart below, which seeks to give some insight into how well by-election swings have worked historically as pointers to the next election result – to which the answer is, not very well at all. Featured are all federal by-elections contested by both the Coalition and Labor back to the Whitlam government, with the by-election swing to the government (nearly always negative) recorded on the horizontal axis, and the subsequent election swing (usually negative as well) on the vertical. As such, all by-elections for a given parliamentary term have the same result on the vertical axis. I have also included a line recording the correlation between the two variables, but only for by-elections that were not held in the first nine months of the parliamentary term, which are usually a lot more favourable for the government. However, the predictive power of the underlying equation is very poor (the r-squared result is 0.0655), as it could hardly fail to be, given the government recorded a favourable swing of 7.4% in New England a fortnight ago.

Election night

9.38pm. I believe that’s it for this evening – counting of postals will not begin until tomorrow. I have three polling booths listed as outstanding, but I believe two of them were not in service.

8.41pm. The big West Ryde pre-poll voting centre is in, and its impact is modest, although the Labor swing has at least nudged above 5% now.

8.15pm. And now some other booth has taken it away again.

8.12pm. A booth I suspect to be Gladesville North has ratcheted up the swing to Labor by a bit over half a point.

8.08pm. In my search for something interesting observe, I would note that large additions to the count should occur late in the evening with the pre-poll voting. These might have the effect of nudging the swing a few per cent, in one direction or another. For the time being though, the swing has been stable for some time at a bit under 5%.

7.54pm. Swing steadying at around 5%.

7.51pm. With half the booths in on the primary vote, I’m now projecting a slightly bigger Labor swing of 5.0%.

7.48pm. Not seeing much of a pattern to the swings: double-digit swings to Labor in three booths, Carlingford, Marsfield and Middle Ryde, which aren’t in any particular proximity. Weak results for Labor in Eastwood West, Gladesville and Truscott.

7.39pm. Eleven booths now in on two-party, still only 17 on primary.

7.36pm. Two more two-party results in, and the swing remains settled at 4-5%. Unlike the ABC, I’m projecting two-party totals in the seven booths that have only reported on the primary vote, but it’s not making much difference.

7.34pm. An eight two-party result, and same again: swing now up to 4.5%.

7.32pm. A seventh two-party result is better for Labor, so the swing projection is now up to 3.5%.

7.31pm. A couple more booths on the primary vote, and the Liberals position has strengthened still further, to the extent I’m now projecting essentially no swing at all.

7.30pm. A fairly striking improvement for the Liberals on preference flows. My early prognostications were based on noting the similar primary vote swings, but it turns out 6% movements on the primary are only translating into 2% on two-party.

7.28pm. Twelve on the primary vote, six on two-party, and still looking a disappointing result for Labor. It may be worth noting Tony Burke’s point that Labor is doing better in Chinese areas, including a double-digit swing in Carlingford, and that these tend to be larger booths that will report later.

7.26pm. Tony Burke more or less conceding on the ABC.

7.25pm. Okay, I’ve now got those two-party numbers and I’m seeing what Antony’s seeing — hardly any swing at all.

7.23pm. Antony Green has five results from two-party preferred, whereas I’m only seeing one – so definitely take my projection with a grain of salt so long as it says there’s only one two-party result in the count.

7.19pm. Eight booths in on the primary vote, and Ryde reporting on two-party preferred. By projecting Ryde’s preferences across the booths with primary votes only, I’m projecting Labor with a pretty handy swing. However, this is projecting a lot from a little – I would want more than one small two-party result before I read anything into it.

7.11pm. The AEC is projecting a swing to Labor of 4.7%, which I presume is based off a single booths two-party total that I’m not seeing published anywhere.

7.10pm. Eastwood West slightly reduces Labor swing, but still no two-party numbers.

7.08pm. Carlingord has now reporting, along with Macquarie Park, and it has indeed boosted the swing to nearly 8%, albeit that this would still leave Labor a little short.

7.06pm. Tony Burke talking up Labor’s performance in Carlingford, saying it points to a big swing to Labor in Chinese communities.

7.03pm. The larger Truscott booth is a much better result for the Liberals, suggesting a swing more like 5%.

7.01pm. Primary vote numbers in from Marsfield and Ryde, both consistent with a swing of about 9% to Labor, suggesting a very close result.

6pm. Polls have closed for the Bennelong by-election. This being an urban electorate, we shouldn’t expect any serious numbers for about an hour or so. I will hopefully be offering my own prognosis of the situation in the table above, but it’s all a bit experimental and we’ll have to wait to see if it works.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

488 comments on “Bennelong by-election live”

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  1. Cot we can discuss this in more detail on Thursday night at the drinks and celebrate the inevitable victory of socialism under bill shorten together .

  2. Tom Connell‏Verified account @tomwconnell
    4m4 minutes ago

    The win in Bennelong means the government will have the numbers to refer Labor mps to the high court – but Labor will be able to return serve IF the high court rules it can do so outside of parliament…
    1 reply 8 retweets 6 likes

  4. Good evening all,

    I think those who are calling this a bad result for labor are either liberal supporters or had a huge attack of over optimism leading into today.

    A swing of over 5 % ( on current figures ) in a safe and conservative liberal seat is nothing to sneeze about.

    In my opinion ( for what it is worth ) this election has been mis defined as a by election. Just as New England was mis defined as well. Both elections were a mid term performance appraisal of sitting members irrespective of s44. Joyce was determined to be doing well. Alexander not so much. Any further elections resulting from s44 will be the same. In simple terms, how can these elections be called by elections when the sitting member ( in the mind of the electorate ) is contesting ?

    KK has endured weeks of abuse and character assassination from the Libs and she still came out of tonight with a PV swing of over 7% and a 2PP of over 5%.

    This mid term assessment of John Alexander has cost the liberals a fortune , they threw all the dirt they could and they still have ended up with a swing against a ” well liked, hard working sitting member”.

    Let the Libs have their night. Christmas is around the corner.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  5. Let’s put this in perspective:

    1. A seat that’s only been held by Labor ONCE;
    2. A popular local member, who increased his margin to over 10% at an election where the LNP generally went backwards;
    3. A nasty smear campaign against both the ALP candidate and a sitting ALP senator;
    4. The Prime Minister in the electorate every day, lying to the media about the above Labor people;
    5. More than a million dollars expended ny the LNP …

    Despite all this, a swing of more than 5% was achieved by the Labor candidate.

    Pretty extraordinary, I would have thought.

    OMG, Turnbull is now doing Alexander’s acceptance speech for him.

    FMD

  6. Don’t know how the whole ‘Chinese influence’ element played out. Many / most people of Chinese heritage over here have little or no love for the regime in China, especially the older people.

  10. “The down sides for the Coalition of only having an average-ish swing against them is that it was in a safe seat so they got away with it,…”

    Should be:

    The down sides for the Coalition of having an average-ish swing against them is that they only got away with it because it was in a safe seat,…

  13. Finally he’s letting Alexander speak, but I can’t help noticing he’s making sure he’s still in shot …

    God, I hate egocentric bastards like him

  14. Cot we can discuss this in more detail on Thursday night at the drinks and celebrate the inevitable victory of socialism under bill shorten together .

    You horrible creepy old tosser.

  16. I think the higher informal vote can be explained by the hot weather, large number of candidates and that it was a byelection – no television advertising resulting in low voter engagement.

  18. Steve Kelly‏ @SteveKellyABC
    25m25 minutes ago

    “What we’ve just watched I understand is a feed coming through the NBN” @Tony_Burke on @abcnews after @KKeneally press conference drops out #BennelongVotes #auspol

  23. Votes counted so far approx = 74% of the enrolment. Final turnout would be likely to be in the low 90s. Swing to Labor so far looks to be about 5.5%, which will finish after postals around 4.5 to 5.0%. Pretty much a “meh” result in a normal by-election, but able to be spun favourably by the Government. In this one, I’m not sure what it means.

  26. And in other news, what a shocker, Trump interference:

    Guardian Australia‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    2m2 minutes ago

    Trump-Russia: Republicans trying to kill off investigation, Adam Schiff says

  27. David
    “Dio often the predictions and expectations change in retrospect”
    At least they are recorded here for posterity so next time we know who to ignore.

  30. I think agent Sam and bill shorten were the biggest factors in the late swing back.

    The liberal internal polling had it on 54-46 to Keneally two weeks ago.

  31. C@t – I get the feeling you are one of Labors “useful idiots” – doing the work of the masters but not understanding what is going on

    Otherwise you would know why ESJ is going to the drinks

  32. Chinda:

    I think it was Antony Green on tonight’s coverage who said the Libs lost touch with Chinese voters in Bennelong during Howard’s tenure as their MP, which ate into his margin and eventually cost him his seat. It wasn’t until they started paying attention to these voters in the electorate, listening and whatever that they were able to win back the seat and JA increased his margin.

  33. Steve777 @ 9.26pm

    Because the AEC calculates swing by matching polling booths, the postals will only reduce the swing if the swing to the ALP was smaller in the postals than in the rest. I’m not sure why that would be the case, especially since some of the postals would have been cast before the ALP had its allegedly bad week with Senator Dastyari.

  34. Not a good night for the pollsters. Nor for many of the supper-optimists on this site. Wayne, take a bow.

    As someone who lived through the Menzies era and 23 years’ hard Labor, I know how hard it is for the ALP to win from Opposition. It happens only rarely. Gough did it, but he had to crash through the Labor trogdolytes first – and then crashed and burned as reactionary forces mounted a united front and broke all the rules.

    Bob Hawke was a one-off. The larrikin from Oxford. We’ll never see his like again.

    Kevin Rudd was pretty remarkable too. As a Chinese speaker, he actually saw Labor over the line in Bennelong for the first and probably only time. OK, he had his faults, but his relentless detractors here should recognize his amazing achievement and lay off.

    Turnbull now has the wind at his back. SSM is done. He has the media behind him, Labor governments in three states and two territories, and two years to devise tax bribes and demonise asylum seekers.

    Shorten is a trier, but he’s far from a certain winner.

  35. ESJ,

    “The liberal internal polling had it on 54-46 to Keneally two weeks ago”

    If you can write that without laughing, you should go into comedy.

    You would be a great straight man.

  37. High non English speakers would increase informal votes of course, I assumed the figures earlier were comparing Bennelong today with figures from the last general election.

  40. Pedant – postals have always strongly favour the conservatives. It’s a demographic thing. Postal voters include a higher proportion of elderly, who skew conservative. They are also likely to include travellers (business or holidays) who bother to arrange a postal vote. Traditionally, people travelling were more likely to be wealthier and hence more likely to vote conservative. This aspect probably isn’t as strong today.

    Always, one of the most depressing things about any post-election period is seeing postals whittle away the Labor vote. If postals had favoured Labor as strongly over the years, the L/NP would have long since suppressed them.

  41. Edwina StJohn @ #279 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 8:29 pm

    You can’t win government with an opposition leader who has a -25 per cent approval rating.

    People aren’t thick and recognise shorten was the author of the Gillard Rudd dysfunction.

    Well done – “Steady Eddie” you’ve keep your record intact of being wrong !

    …

    Edwina StJohn (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 12:09 pm
    Comment #919

    Put me down for 52.1 – 47.9 in favour of Keneally comrades. Nothing goes right for Turnbull in politics why would he break his losing streak now.
    …

    Such a call goes into the Parthenon of your other *magnificent* other political ‘wisdom’ …err which were all *Totally* wrong –

    viz –

    Edward StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, August 28, 2013 at 8:11 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott….the right man to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.

    …

    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, September 20, 2014 at 7:28 pm | Permalink

    …. all Abbott needs is a “budget deal” whatever that looks like…

    …
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Monday, January 19, 2015 at 6:21 am | Permalink

    Three (3) more years of Campbellism coming up !
    …

    ESJ – the gift that keeeps giving…. 🙂

  42. Steve777: Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 8:02 pm
    “Rather disappointing, rather like election night 1977.”

    The real shocker for me was the 2001 Tampa election. I remember thinking, when I first heard Howard’s carry on about what seemed to me a ridiculous non issue, that he had completely lost the plot. Then on election night I discovered to my horror that he had successfully appealed to our nastier side, won the election and embedded long-term racism into a country I had thought largely free of such unpleasantness. No election before or after left me feeling so gutted.

  43. Wayne, take a bow.

    Actually, no, his predictions of the 2PP were further out than those of the most cockeyed Labor optimists here, out by about 30% if I recall.

  46. EDJ,

    Your hero is attacking Disability:

    PatriciaKarvelas‏Verified account @PatsKarvelas
    30m30 minutes ago

    Oh dear the disability sticker joke by JA is not going to go down well #auspol

    Mark my words, LNP will also attack Disabled through Social Services cuts.

  47. Steve777 says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 9:47 pm
    Pedant – postals have always strongly favour the conservatives. It’s a demographic thing. Postal voters include a higher proportion of elderly, who skew conservative. They are also likely to include travellers (business or holidays) who bother to arrange a postal vote. Traditionally, people travelling were more likely to be wealthier and hence more likely to vote conservative. This aspect probably isn’t as strong today.

    The experience is that voting intention is not changed by the mode of vote – whether in person or by post. The Liberals spend a fortune rounding up postal votes. Many of the postal votes cast are Labor votes, so effectively the Liberals deflect their spending away from their own campaigning in favour of the campaigns of their competitors. To the extent that the postal vote effort by the Liberals delivers Lib votes, they are votes they would most likely have received anyway.

    I really don’t know why the Liberals bother. Postal votes almost never change results but chasing them up is very resource-intensive. It just duplicates the effort of voters and the AEC for no actual discernible gain.

  49. Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice
    30m30 minutes ago

    Here’s the anecdote John Alexander made about a disabled car sticker in his victory speech…

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