| Projected ALP swing | Projected 2PP | ALP win probability |
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
#
|
%
|
Swing
|
#
|
%
|
Proj.
|
Swing
|
|
| Robinson (ALA) |
623
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Folitarik (SPP) |
827
|
1.1%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jansson (FUT) |
902
|
1.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alexander (LIB) |
31,901
|
44.1%
|
-5.9%
|
39,195
|
54.2%
|
54.1%
|
-5.6%
|
| Keneally (ALP) |
26,290
|
36.3%
|
+7.4%
|
33,172
|
45.8%
|
45.9%
|
+5.6%
|
| Platter (APEP) |
149
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alick (GRN) |
5,000
|
6.9%
|
-2.0%
|
|
|
|
|
| Ziebell (AAHP) |
622
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fels (NCP) |
116
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Richa (ACP) |
3,251
|
4.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cao (CDP) |
2,299
|
3.2%
|
-3.5%
|
|
|
|
|
| Golding (AUP) |
386
|
0.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FORMAL |
72,366
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Booths reporting on primary vote (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Booths reporting on two-party preferred (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Formal votes counted as % of enrolment (106,582) |
67.9%
|
||||||
Summary
All I have to add at this stage is the chart below, which seeks to give some insight into how well by-election swings have worked historically as pointers to the next election result – to which the answer is, not very well at all. Featured are all federal by-elections contested by both the Coalition and Labor back to the Whitlam government, with the by-election swing to the government (nearly always negative) recorded on the horizontal axis, and the subsequent election swing (usually negative as well) on the vertical. As such, all by-elections for a given parliamentary term have the same result on the vertical axis. I have also included a line recording the correlation between the two variables, but only for by-elections that were not held in the first nine months of the parliamentary term, which are usually a lot more favourable for the government. However, the predictive power of the underlying equation is very poor (the r-squared result is 0.0655), as it could hardly fail to be, given the government recorded a favourable swing of 7.4% in New England a fortnight ago.
Election night
9.38pm. I believe that’s it for this evening – counting of postals will not begin until tomorrow. I have three polling booths listed as outstanding, but I believe two of them were not in service.
8.41pm. The big West Ryde pre-poll voting centre is in, and its impact is modest, although the Labor swing has at least nudged above 5% now.
8.15pm. And now some other booth has taken it away again.
8.12pm. A booth I suspect to be Gladesville North has ratcheted up the swing to Labor by a bit over half a point.
8.08pm. In my search for something interesting observe, I would note that large additions to the count should occur late in the evening with the pre-poll voting. These might have the effect of nudging the swing a few per cent, in one direction or another. For the time being though, the swing has been stable for some time at a bit under 5%.
7.54pm. Swing steadying at around 5%.
7.51pm. With half the booths in on the primary vote, I’m now projecting a slightly bigger Labor swing of 5.0%.
7.48pm. Not seeing much of a pattern to the swings: double-digit swings to Labor in three booths, Carlingford, Marsfield and Middle Ryde, which aren’t in any particular proximity. Weak results for Labor in Eastwood West, Gladesville and Truscott.
7.39pm. Eleven booths now in on two-party, still only 17 on primary.
7.36pm. Two more two-party results in, and the swing remains settled at 4-5%. Unlike the ABC, I’m projecting two-party totals in the seven booths that have only reported on the primary vote, but it’s not making much difference.
7.34pm. An eight two-party result, and same again: swing now up to 4.5%.
7.32pm. A seventh two-party result is better for Labor, so the swing projection is now up to 3.5%.
7.31pm. A couple more booths on the primary vote, and the Liberals position has strengthened still further, to the extent I’m now projecting essentially no swing at all.
7.30pm. A fairly striking improvement for the Liberals on preference flows. My early prognostications were based on noting the similar primary vote swings, but it turns out 6% movements on the primary are only translating into 2% on two-party.
7.28pm. Twelve on the primary vote, six on two-party, and still looking a disappointing result for Labor. It may be worth noting Tony Burke’s point that Labor is doing better in Chinese areas, including a double-digit swing in Carlingford, and that these tend to be larger booths that will report later.
7.26pm. Tony Burke more or less conceding on the ABC.
7.25pm. Okay, I’ve now got those two-party numbers and I’m seeing what Antony’s seeing — hardly any swing at all.
7.23pm. Antony Green has five results from two-party preferred, whereas I’m only seeing one – so definitely take my projection with a grain of salt so long as it says there’s only one two-party result in the count.
7.19pm. Eight booths in on the primary vote, and Ryde reporting on two-party preferred. By projecting Ryde’s preferences across the booths with primary votes only, I’m projecting Labor with a pretty handy swing. However, this is projecting a lot from a little – I would want more than one small two-party result before I read anything into it.
7.11pm. The AEC is projecting a swing to Labor of 4.7%, which I presume is based off a single booths two-party total that I’m not seeing published anywhere.
7.10pm. Eastwood West slightly reduces Labor swing, but still no two-party numbers.
7.08pm. Carlingord has now reporting, along with Macquarie Park, and it has indeed boosted the swing to nearly 8%, albeit that this would still leave Labor a little short.
7.06pm. Tony Burke talking up Labor’s performance in Carlingford, saying it points to a big swing to Labor in Chinese communities.
7.03pm. The larger Truscott booth is a much better result for the Liberals, suggesting a swing more like 5%.
7.01pm. Primary vote numbers in from Marsfield and Ryde, both consistent with a swing of about 9% to Labor, suggesting a very close result.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Bennelong by-election. This being an urban electorate, we shouldn’t expect any serious numbers for about an hour or so. I will hopefully be offering my own prognosis of the situation in the table above, but it’s all a bit experimental and we’ll have to wait to see if it works.
Heavens to Murgatroyd OC ! Your aged hatred of everything nsw labor is boring, and your knowledge of 70s , 80s and 90s shenanigans was interesting 5 years ago. Send in Dio, he’s a bit more relevant. Everyone I know in the party respects ‘Jane’.
Disappointing result, mostly because Labor faithful are extremely eager to change the government. It seems JA has a decent personal vote in the electorate as an incumbent.
Unfortunately we can already imagine the mainstream media narrative about how things are back on track for Turnbull etc. We will just have to deal with that. I think Keneally has done a decent job and put her hand up at a tough election. I don’t think anyone else would have done better but as usual we will see people blaming her as it happens when there is a loss.
**Qualified by the peculiarities of this by-election – incumbent in place plus potential impact on the stability of the Government.**
I think these have a major impact. It is just too difficult to measure.
However, the perception will be that Turnbull has at least broken even. And considering the year he has had – that is a win.
The consolation for those who are not happy with his leadership and the policy direction is….. Turnbulls smugness as a winner goes down with the public about as well and his petulance as a loser.
Hopeless result for the Cories, who have just managed to poach votes from the CDP. They will be very disappointed. They’re a very long way from attracting enough support to elect a Senator in NSW. The Gs would also be disheartened. The anti-incumbent vote went straight to Labor while their own rating dropped.
KK just claimed a 5.5-6% swing, which very well may eventuate with the gain in primary vote over the last few booths, and the greater numbers of postals (which suggest they should be closer to the electorate average).
I felt all along that there was a bit too much optimism here about KK winning. So my expectations were never as high as some. The real excitement will come in a few months time when the people of Australia finally chuck this scurvy lot out and instal a good Labor government.
We’ll see how many of the smart arse trolls turn up here that night. None I would expect.
Voters don’t like going to the polls on what they as technical issues and tend to give a sympathy vote – a 5% swing against the liberal candidate is not a bad result in those circumstances – probably represents an 8-10% swing against the govt
Go the Vollies!
We are Labor! We are the Red wave!
Outside Left – I get he impression that you were once a Terrigal
steve davis says:
Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 8:36 pm
Chers, steve…. you are too!
So, was Keneally actually a member of the NSW Right, or just put forward by them to become premier? Given Rex’s constant fawning over her, plus his claims tonight that she would have poached votes from the Greens, I kind of assumed she must have been a member of a Left faction (with the Right’s support of her being more to do with perceived electoral attractiveness and/or confidence she would act in their interest.)
I trust KK is not drafted to the vacant Senate position.
She deserves a reasonably safe seat.
The Senate is full of party hacks from both parties who sit on their backsides listening to their arteries harden, contributing little.
KK has a lot to offer, and is too talented to be wasted in the ‘unrepresentative swill’ that is the Senate.
Darn:
I predicted JA to be returned simply on the basis of his healthy margin, but can’t deny I was seriously hoping for a Labor win!
On the tax front the Libs should listen to Hewson.
He was on during the week saying that the ordinary non-enguaged voter is not going to get past the fact that BHP pays a lower tax rate than they do.
Outside Left,
Yes, Oakeshott Country is a very bitter individual in the Mark Latham mould.
AEC now has the swing at 5.26%. Still not great, but hardly a terrible result for Labor either.
The Bennelong Liberal after party. Where are all the women?
Cricket’s finished so I can look at politics.
Sadly, I was correct not to make a prediction. Also, sadly, I expect Turnbull and his media pets will make out this is a ‘big victory’ for the forces of greed. When even a remote swing of that dimension would wipe out much of the current govt.
Sigh.
Confessions: I spot one on the far right, and another near the left. That’s about it.
She was in the Right and came to parliament after defeating Gruseovin (Brereton’s sister) in a bitter pre-selection after family Brereton fell foul of the faction. ESJ who was an insider at the time will know the details. Her husband Ben, a close friend of Tripodi was considered for the seat but the quota meant Jane had a better chance
OC:
Cheers.
In hindsight, it was pretty foolish of me to expect anything Rex said to be based in the realm of common sense.
I was a candidate in Mark Latham’s election – learnt a lot about the NSW Right during that experience
Nah, I’m in the Jervis Bay faction. A little bit left with a distaste for ‘centre unity’. I wouldn’t mind starting a Christian Left faction though[could be lonely!]
Oakeshott Country,
That you keep wittering on about the ‘Terrigals’ just puts up in neon lights how clueless you are about the contemporary NSW Labor Party, and how embittered you are.
Asha:
There’s also one in a black shirt in the middle-to-front. But that’s it as far as I can see.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Tony Burke has a VERY sexy voice ❤️
Rule of law,
Senators mostly have not much to recommend them.
There are exceptions like Wong and Cormann but most are partisan drones. Ludlum I thought was worth paying – a good thinker.
Not a woman to be found here either.
2004.
Just shows how out of touch with the modern NSW Labor Party you are, OC.
Yes a fair summation oc.
Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 8:56 pm
I was a candidate in Mark Latham’s election
Very bad luck, OC…!
Despite the garbage spin we’re about to have unleashed, this is a good result and should be a very concerning result for the Liberals. Yes, they avoid minority government, so of course that’s a win. But as I said earlier, this wasn’t a normal by-election as it had a sitting incumbent. This is a good swing against someone who has built up his margin at every election and so clearly has a solid personal vote.
Confessions:
Hmm. That might be a woman behind the guy second from the left..
I would suggest that most of the voters of Bennelong don’t know anything about Terrigal other than that it’s a pleasant seaside suburb on the Central Coast about an 80 – 90 minute drive away.
And, Oakeshott Country, I was a candidate in 2017! This year! Not over 10 years ago.
jenauthor
Let the Liberals celebrate. It will blind them to the real problems they should be addressing.
If they were sensible enough to understand what was going on, they’d make some changes.
They don’t, so they won’t, so ultimately they’re gone.
And yet labor couldn’t win tonight……
But it’s all good. bill shorten is on exactly the right track to be prime minister.
Jennet makes a complete tool of himself extrapolating the Labor primary vote in Bennelong to a federal result. Where does the ABC dredge up these fuckwits. When Labor gets in, the ABC will need a thorough fumigation.
So, a bit above average 2PP swing for a by-election.
Labor can be comforted with the big increase in their primary vote (currently +7.6% on ABC). But the 2PP is only an okay result for them. Respectable enough, but not great either.
Coalition can be comforted with retaining the seat, and that the 2PP swing was not a lot worse. No doubt Turnbull will milk that for all it is worth, and take it too far.
The down sides for the Coalition of only having an average-ish swing against them is that it was in a safe seat so they got away with it, and the implication for their national vote. They can’t afford to give away a single percent nationally, let alone five percent.
C@t
I was asked questions about Jane’s alignment and the meaning of “Terrigals” which I answered.
While the Terrigals were largely wiped out in 2011 it concerns me that Belinda was seriously considered as a candidate ( thankfully now expelled) and Kristina was chosen for this by-election
Looking like 54-46, close to a 6% swing. I think this can genuinely be claimed as a good result for Labor.
Matt31,
And 5.6% of that personal vote for Alexander went south in just under 18 months.
CTar1
I agree with you there are a couple of stand-outs in the Senate.
Scott Ludlam was a loss to the Senate although I’m not a Greens supporter.
Just wish all parties would give us a better cross-section of society.
Don’t know why everyone’s getting so hot and bothered about this by-election.
In fact, I’m wondering how this so-called ‘by-election’ can even go forward, considering everyone keeps saying that it’s located in this ‘New South Wales’ place.
For as we all should know, New South Wales doesn’t exist.
No more historical candidates like Peter Beattie or Kristina Keneally.
If they come up from state politics, may they be like Linda Burney.
Jennet earlier also talked about Asian voters in Bennelong and used the words ‘dinky di Aussie’ voters of Asian descent when referring to a kind of spectrum of voters of Asian descent. Inference was these ‘dinky di Aussie’ voters are more genuine Australians than others.
The informal rate is about 7.4%. That’s rather high, I think 4-5% is more typical. It was a big candidate list but Bennelong probably has a high level of educational attainment and relatively low level of disadvantage. I wonder if that has any significance?
http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21379-105.htm
As ESJ said this is a Flinders or Aston rather than a Bass or Canberra (or during Kenealley’s Premiership
Penrith -27%). Bass, Canberra and Penrith were the harbingers of the end of government; Flinders and Aston the end of a LOTO
Oakeshott Country,
If you actually know Belinda, then you would also know that the only people who seriously consider her as a candidate are Belinda, John and their flunkies.
Their self-entitled mindset won them no friends in the run-up to the Council election as their legal challenges against their expulsion stymied our campaign.
Good riddance to bad rubbish! We are over them and you should build a bridge and get over it all too.
The Bennelong by-election has been a great dry run for the upcoming federal election. Labor will learn much from it.
And the result will be the same.