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| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win probability |
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Click here for full display of Black by-election results
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PRIMARY VOTE
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
#
|
%
|
Swing
|
#
|
%
|
Proj.
|
Swing
|
|
| Robinson (ALA) |
623
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Folitarik (SPP) |
827
|
1.1%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jansson (FUT) |
902
|
1.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alexander (LIB) |
31,901
|
44.1%
|
-5.9%
|
39,195
|
54.2%
|
54.1%
|
-5.6%
|
| Keneally (ALP) |
26,290
|
36.3%
|
+7.4%
|
33,172
|
45.8%
|
45.9%
|
+5.6%
|
| Platter (APEP) |
149
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alick (GRN) |
5,000
|
6.9%
|
-2.0%
|
|
|
|
|
| Ziebell (AAHP) |
622
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fels (NCP) |
116
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Richa (ACP) |
3,251
|
4.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cao (CDP) |
2,299
|
3.2%
|
-3.5%
|
|
|
|
|
| Golding (AUP) |
386
|
0.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FORMAL |
72,366
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Booths reporting on primary vote (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Booths reporting on two-party preferred (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Formal votes counted as % of enrolment (106,582) |
67.9%
|
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Summary
All I have to add at this stage is the chart below, which seeks to give some insight into how well by-election swings have worked historically as pointers to the next election result – to which the answer is, not very well at all. Featured are all federal by-elections contested by both the Coalition and Labor back to the Whitlam government, with the by-election swing to the government (nearly always negative) recorded on the horizontal axis, and the subsequent election swing (usually negative as well) on the vertical. As such, all by-elections for a given parliamentary term have the same result on the vertical axis. I have also included a line recording the correlation between the two variables, but only for by-elections that were not held in the first nine months of the parliamentary term, which are usually a lot more favourable for the government. However, the predictive power of the underlying equation is very poor (the r-squared result is 0.0655), as it could hardly fail to be, given the government recorded a favourable swing of 7.4% in New England a fortnight ago.
hoops name="gchart2"
Election night
9.38pm. I believe that’s it for this evening – counting of postals will not begin until tomorrow. I have three polling booths listed as outstanding, but I believe two of them were not in service.
8.41pm. The big West Ryde pre-poll voting centre is in, and its impact is modest, although the Labor swing has at least nudged above 5% now.
8.15pm. And now some other booth has taken it away again.
8.12pm. A booth I suspect to be Gladesville North has ratcheted up the swing to Labor by a bit over half a point.
8.08pm. In my search for something interesting observe, I would note that large additions to the count should occur late in the evening with the pre-poll voting. These might have the effect of nudging the swing a few per cent, in one direction or another. For the time being though, the swing has been stable for some time at a bit under 5%.
7.54pm. Swing steadying at around 5%.
7.51pm. With half the booths in on the primary vote, I’m now projecting a slightly bigger Labor swing of 5.0%.
7.48pm. Not seeing much of a pattern to the swings: double-digit swings to Labor in three booths, Carlingford, Marsfield and Middle Ryde, which aren’t in any particular proximity. Weak results for Labor in Eastwood West, Gladesville and Truscott.
7.39pm. Eleven booths now in on two-party, still only 17 on primary.
7.36pm. Two more two-party results in, and the swing remains settled at 4-5%. Unlike the ABC, I’m projecting two-party totals in the seven booths that have only reported on the primary vote, but it’s not making much difference.
7.34pm. An eight two-party result, and same again: swing now up to 4.5%.
7.32pm. A seventh two-party result is better for Labor, so the swing projection is now up to 3.5%.
7.31pm. A couple more booths on the primary vote, and the Liberals position has strengthened still further, to the extent I’m now projecting essentially no swing at all.
7.30pm. A fairly striking improvement for the Liberals on preference flows. My early prognostications were based on noting the similar primary vote swings, but it turns out 6% movements on the primary are only translating into 2% on two-party.
7.28pm. Twelve on the primary vote, six on two-party, and still looking a disappointing result for Labor. It may be worth noting Tony Burke’s point that Labor is doing better in Chinese areas, including a double-digit swing in Carlingford, and that these tend to be larger booths that will report later.
7.26pm. Tony Burke more or less conceding on the ABC.
7.25pm. Okay, I’ve now got those two-party numbers and I’m seeing what Antony’s seeing — hardly any swing at all.
7.23pm. Antony Green has five results from two-party preferred, whereas I’m only seeing one – so definitely take my projection with a grain of salt so long as it says there’s only one two-party result in the count.
7.19pm. Eight booths in on the primary vote, and Ryde reporting on two-party preferred. By projecting Ryde’s preferences across the booths with primary votes only, I’m projecting Labor with a pretty handy swing. However, this is projecting a lot from a little – I would want more than one small two-party result before I read anything into it.
7.11pm. The AEC is projecting a swing to Labor of 4.7%, which I presume is based off a single booths two-party total that I’m not seeing published anywhere.
7.10pm. Eastwood West slightly reduces Labor swing, but still no two-party numbers.
7.08pm. Carlingord has now reporting, along with Macquarie Park, and it has indeed boosted the swing to nearly 8%, albeit that this would still leave Labor a little short.
7.06pm. Tony Burke talking up Labor’s performance in Carlingford, saying it points to a big swing to Labor in Chinese communities.
7.03pm. The larger Truscott booth is a much better result for the Liberals, suggesting a swing more like 5%.
7.01pm. Primary vote numbers in from Marsfield and Ryde, both consistent with a swing of about 9% to Labor, suggesting a very close result.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Bennelong by-election. This being an urban electorate, we shouldn’t expect any serious numbers for about an hour or so. I will hopefully be offering my own prognosis of the situation in the table above, but it’s all a bit experimental and we’ll have to wait to see if it works.
Malan throwing his arm over. England has now used seven bowlers.
I suspect that the reason that the Green vote went down was that it was a tightly fought by-election between the ALP and the Liberals and that sucked air away from the Greens.
CTar1 @ #235 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 8:07 pm
Couldn’t help myself, it needed editing.
I think the only positive numbers worth taking out of tonight are Australia 4/517 and Mitch Marsh now 171.
This electorate does not have the inner ciy latte demographic so I think it means nothing for the Greens. KK campaigned hard so that leaves othe rNSW Labor baggage. I think the embarrassment over recent Labor citizenship cases, exaccerbated by Feeney’s lame excuse, made Labor’s attacks on JA look hypocritical too.
Ides of March:
Agreed.
At least Rhiannon is finally on her way out.
Green making the point that the increase in robopolling in recent years, esp in an electorate with a higher than average proportion of the electorate who don’t speak English as their first language is bound to impact reliability of said polling.
Smith now 216, his highest score.
Tom
The Greens PV down is close to the total of the left wing micros. Not much else to say.
The voters of Bennelong will be bloody glad its all over now and they can return to normality.
The left wing micros do also take air away from the Greens. This has particularly been an iussie with proportional representation elections.
While the Govt has framed the s 44 debate brilliantly and made many minds I considered likely to have passed primary school look pretty bloody preschooler as they echoed the ‘all too hard’ ‘doesn’t really matter it is only the constitution that isn’t an important part of our democracy’ trash, I still don’t think you could honestly find support for voters wanting to reward lazy lying people who fraudulently sat in parliament when they were not entitled to, in the massive sample of two safe coalition seats we have seen.
Reachtel were the closest to the actual result and they had a sample of over 800 compared to around 530 to Galaxy.
Size matters.
What people forget us that Bennelong is also a socially conservative electorate. Witness the SSM no vote. They probably thought the government did a good job in holding off the forces of darkness as long as they did.
Bennelong has never been a great seat for the Greens. Apart from when Wilkie ran as a Green in 2004, they’ve never cracked 10%. Even during the 2010 election, they only polled 7.95 in Bennelong.
Going into 2018, and potentially a election year, Shorten and Labor will need to bring their A-game.
solicsoc – I’m not ‘spewing” anything. It’s an opinion.
I assume voters are allowed those under your preferred ‘system’?
I do not defend the inelligible MPs. But if Labor had not had a few of their own exposed recently that attack might have carried soem weight. Feeney’s weak excuse may have turned that issue into a negative.
Meadowbank TAFE Booth : Final 2PP
Keneally: 690
Alexander: 589
Unfortunately, a small booth and not indicative of the whole seat. A great team effort by our volunteers!!
Oakeshott Country,
If you actually lived in the present with your comments about the Labor Party I might take you seriously. As it is you are just another Yesterday’s Labor man with a huge chip on his shoulder about the past. Which bears no relation to the present.
I should know. I don’t think you do any more.
The recriminations in Labor will be delicious. It’s quite a severe rejection of Shorten.
Let’s hope Labor retains him after this disaster.
I think we have to concede that a by-election swing under 5% is a bad result. That is the normal by-election swing. A swing of 5 – 7% would have been neutral, business as usual, still claimed as a magnificent victory by Malcolm, as would a Liberal victory by 1 vote. 7% or above would have been good.
Whatever the swing is by the end of tonight, subtract 0.5 to 1% for postals.
Qualified by the peculiarities of this by-election – incumbent in place plus potential impact on the stability of the Government.
At C@t that is why we have tonight’s result and Kristina as a candidate.
Will Belle be making a come back?
Zimmerman not done himself much good on the ABC this evening.
Illogical.
Cot labor needs root and branch reform. The arrogance of trying to win a by election with a failed premier and a wall of China money has been correctly and soundly rejected. no slinking into government through technicalities and loopholes.
Labor might try some genuine policies.
Most of the ACP vote can be accounted for the the drop in the CDF vote – looks like very little of the Liberal loss went to Cory’s party probably a straight Liberal to ALP swap in aggregate. Greens plus left micros suggests a small increase on that side of the spectrum. Nothing much to encourage anyone very much
7.42 % swing to Labor on primaries.That is a shit result for JA for me.
Seth,
The Bennelong by-election has been a great dry run for the upcoming federal election. Labor will learn much from it.
Also, the printing costs of Scratchies. 🙂
ESJ:
So says the guy who has never expressed an opinion one way of the other on anything related to policy.
You can’t win government with an opposition leader who has a -25 per cent approval rating.
People aren’t thick and recognise shorten was the author of the Gillard Rudd dysfunction.
ESJ
Do you work for The Australian?
This is a flinders / Aston by election result. Trouble with a capital T for labour.
If not albo maybe plibersek or Burke are the best options.
We shall all have a pleasant conversation with ESJ on the night of the general election.
I look forward to it, as much as ESJ doesn’t.
ESJ:
-17.5, actually.
Which is still higher than Turnbull’s!
Oakeshott Country, will you please explain your earlier Terrigal reference? I only know of it (the place Terrigal) being the site of an ALP conference circa 1974.
vote1julia:
Well done to all the Labor volunteers who campaigned hard during the campaign! And well done to you too.
Tony Abbott says hi.
‘ALP need to take a leaf out of NZ Labour.’
I think you’ll find we tried a female leader who went to a public school.
It’s a bit too soon to be hailing Jacinda as The Messiah. I’m not putting the mozz on her, but I’ve heard it all before…
Turnbull has lost more support since he became PM as any in history i reckon.
‘You can’t win government with an opposition leader who has a -25 per cent approval rating.’
I wish someone had told Tony Abbott that….
C@tmomma,
Might be helpful in the much need Queensland marginals.
I’d be very happy to see Bill at COAG with Premier Annastacia.
EDJ boring idiot.
A good result for Labor. Voters want to change the government. It’s a poor result for the 1898 Constitutional Convention. Voters could not care less about dual citizenships.
This by-election reminds me of the 2004 federal election, in that it was clear from the very first figures posted that the ALP wasn’t going to win.
I never thought Ms Keneally was other than a middling choice of candidate at best: too much baggage. The same was true of Mr Whitlam in 1977, though I guess Ms Keneally did better today than he did then. It’s interesting how often star candidates come a bit of a cropper: Clem Jones in Griffith in 1974 and Cheryl Kernot a good deal later spring to mind.
Briefly
The voice of sense as usual.
Ultimately it will be up to progressives to take the Coalition down. Socially conservative small business people lap up the BS about deregulation, reducing penalty rates, and couldn’t give a fuck about the environment.
Unless you get a candidate on a pony with a history of molesting children.
ESJ,
Sorry baby girl but it’s the Liberal Party who needs some decent policies.
Trading on a ‘National Security and Jobs’ platform without acknowledging wage stagnation and the evidence that Penalty Rate cuts are not translating to more jobs,
more hours or higher wages, plus trying to push a similar crock uphill about massive Corporate Tax Cuts, is not going to win the Coalition the general election.
No matter how you try and spin it.
The Labor machine has had a good rehearsal for the coming general election. Let’s hope KK is rewarded for her commitment. She’s obviously an effective candidate.
CTar1, I don’t know about you, but I prefer to base my opinions on the facts.
The Terrigals were the Obeid/Tripodi faction of the NSW Right so named because they met in Obeid’s Terrigal penthouse (one of many properties not declared to parliament.
Under the Russian Doll model of government, this meant that Obeid, a man likely to die in gaol, controlled the great state of NSW:
The government was chosen by parliament
parliament was controlled by the Labor Party
the Labor Party was controlled by the Centre Unity Faction (the right)
the Centre Unity was controlled by the Terrigals (their opposition were the Troglodytes)
The Terrigals were controlled by Obeid and Tripodi (who will likely face criminal charges in the New Year)
Kenneally was a member and servant of the Terrigals
Trog
Fxcellent post and prob describes the likes of voters that get the Libs over the line.