| Projected ALP swing | Projected 2PP | ALP win probability |
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
#
|
%
|
Swing
|
#
|
%
|
Proj.
|
Swing
|
|
| Robinson (ALA) |
623
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Folitarik (SPP) |
827
|
1.1%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jansson (FUT) |
902
|
1.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alexander (LIB) |
31,901
|
44.1%
|
-5.9%
|
39,195
|
54.2%
|
54.1%
|
-5.6%
|
| Keneally (ALP) |
26,290
|
36.3%
|
+7.4%
|
33,172
|
45.8%
|
45.9%
|
+5.6%
|
| Platter (APEP) |
149
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alick (GRN) |
5,000
|
6.9%
|
-2.0%
|
|
|
|
|
| Ziebell (AAHP) |
622
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fels (NCP) |
116
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Richa (ACP) |
3,251
|
4.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cao (CDP) |
2,299
|
3.2%
|
-3.5%
|
|
|
|
|
| Golding (AUP) |
386
|
0.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FORMAL |
72,366
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Booths reporting on primary vote (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Booths reporting on two-party preferred (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Formal votes counted as % of enrolment (106,582) |
67.9%
|
||||||
Summary
All I have to add at this stage is the chart below, which seeks to give some insight into how well by-election swings have worked historically as pointers to the next election result – to which the answer is, not very well at all. Featured are all federal by-elections contested by both the Coalition and Labor back to the Whitlam government, with the by-election swing to the government (nearly always negative) recorded on the horizontal axis, and the subsequent election swing (usually negative as well) on the vertical. As such, all by-elections for a given parliamentary term have the same result on the vertical axis. I have also included a line recording the correlation between the two variables, but only for by-elections that were not held in the first nine months of the parliamentary term, which are usually a lot more favourable for the government. However, the predictive power of the underlying equation is very poor (the r-squared result is 0.0655), as it could hardly fail to be, given the government recorded a favourable swing of 7.4% in New England a fortnight ago.
Election night
9.38pm. I believe that’s it for this evening – counting of postals will not begin until tomorrow. I have three polling booths listed as outstanding, but I believe two of them were not in service.
8.41pm. The big West Ryde pre-poll voting centre is in, and its impact is modest, although the Labor swing has at least nudged above 5% now.
8.15pm. And now some other booth has taken it away again.
8.12pm. A booth I suspect to be Gladesville North has ratcheted up the swing to Labor by a bit over half a point.
8.08pm. In my search for something interesting observe, I would note that large additions to the count should occur late in the evening with the pre-poll voting. These might have the effect of nudging the swing a few per cent, in one direction or another. For the time being though, the swing has been stable for some time at a bit under 5%.
7.54pm. Swing steadying at around 5%.
7.51pm. With half the booths in on the primary vote, I’m now projecting a slightly bigger Labor swing of 5.0%.
7.48pm. Not seeing much of a pattern to the swings: double-digit swings to Labor in three booths, Carlingford, Marsfield and Middle Ryde, which aren’t in any particular proximity. Weak results for Labor in Eastwood West, Gladesville and Truscott.
7.39pm. Eleven booths now in on two-party, still only 17 on primary.
7.36pm. Two more two-party results in, and the swing remains settled at 4-5%. Unlike the ABC, I’m projecting two-party totals in the seven booths that have only reported on the primary vote, but it’s not making much difference.
7.34pm. An eight two-party result, and same again: swing now up to 4.5%.
7.32pm. A seventh two-party result is better for Labor, so the swing projection is now up to 3.5%.
7.31pm. A couple more booths on the primary vote, and the Liberals position has strengthened still further, to the extent I’m now projecting essentially no swing at all.
7.30pm. A fairly striking improvement for the Liberals on preference flows. My early prognostications were based on noting the similar primary vote swings, but it turns out 6% movements on the primary are only translating into 2% on two-party.
7.28pm. Twelve on the primary vote, six on two-party, and still looking a disappointing result for Labor. It may be worth noting Tony Burke’s point that Labor is doing better in Chinese areas, including a double-digit swing in Carlingford, and that these tend to be larger booths that will report later.
7.26pm. Tony Burke more or less conceding on the ABC.
7.25pm. Okay, I’ve now got those two-party numbers and I’m seeing what Antony’s seeing — hardly any swing at all.
7.23pm. Antony Green has five results from two-party preferred, whereas I’m only seeing one – so definitely take my projection with a grain of salt so long as it says there’s only one two-party result in the count.
7.19pm. Eight booths in on the primary vote, and Ryde reporting on two-party preferred. By projecting Ryde’s preferences across the booths with primary votes only, I’m projecting Labor with a pretty handy swing. However, this is projecting a lot from a little – I would want more than one small two-party result before I read anything into it.
7.11pm. The AEC is projecting a swing to Labor of 4.7%, which I presume is based off a single booths two-party total that I’m not seeing published anywhere.
7.10pm. Eastwood West slightly reduces Labor swing, but still no two-party numbers.
7.08pm. Carlingord has now reporting, along with Macquarie Park, and it has indeed boosted the swing to nearly 8%, albeit that this would still leave Labor a little short.
7.06pm. Tony Burke talking up Labor’s performance in Carlingford, saying it points to a big swing to Labor in Chinese communities.
7.03pm. The larger Truscott booth is a much better result for the Liberals, suggesting a swing more like 5%.
7.01pm. Primary vote numbers in from Marsfield and Ryde, both consistent with a swing of about 9% to Labor, suggesting a very close result.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Bennelong by-election. This being an urban electorate, we shouldn’t expect any serious numbers for about an hour or so. I will hopefully be offering my own prognosis of the situation in the table above, but it’s all a bit experimental and we’ll have to wait to see if it works.
Green has called Bennelong for the Liberals.
4/500
Saddness. 🙁 Beach time….:)
It does seem that the booths that have had the largest swings to Labor and have a Labor primary lead don’t have 2CP figures yet, which probably explains the weak swing for Labor at the moment.
Could well be. Bennelong was a No electorate in the postal survey.
Rex Douglas,
Desert Qlder is correct. You have to call on Richard di Natale to stand down if the Greens want to improve their performance! He’s dragging down their vote, surely.
Shout out to the Galaxy bloke who went on the ABC this am and championed the reliability of his poll in contradistinction to Antony Green’s caution.
A 4% swing here is disappointing, no doubt about that. But if replicated at a national level, it would still be a landslide victory for Labor. I don’t think the Coalition should be too cheerful about this – though I’m sure Turnbull’s gloating will be insufferable for the next week or two.
The good news for Labor is that Turnbull is probably safe for the immediately future, and the Coalition is likely to overflow with hubris in the wake of this result, both of which bode well for their future electoral chances.
One electorate doesnt win a General.
Shame. Oh well, more of the same now I guess 🙁
Small swings against the Greens can be explained by the presences of Science Party, Australian Progressives, Affordable Housing Party etc.
Bigger picture – same as we where before the byelection.
Labor still in position to win government.
Oh Rex, S. T. F. U! You are sooooooo boring
The informal vote is up 1.73%. That adds significantly to the result for Libs. Plus Labor had donkey vote last time and Libs have it this time. That shifts about 1.2% to Libs. Overall these 2 factors could add about 1.5% to the actual swing recorded on the figures tonight. That is about 11.5% swing needed in sentiment to produce a 10% winning swing. Or another way – if Labor can show a 5% swing on the charts tonight that is probably near 6.5% in “corrected” figures.
Oh well, there’s bound to be another Liberal by-election at some point in the future. If there isn’t, there’s always another general election.
IMO, the real losers in this by-election are the individual seat polls, which has once again been shown to be about as accurate as pulling random numbers out of a hat
I noted after the New England by-election that the limited evidence we have for s44-caused by-elections suggests that voters don’t much care for being forced to the polls on a technicality, and have always returned the sitting member, normally with an increased majority. Labor has won a small swing in this case, but far less than what all published polls have been suggesting for well over a year, which suggests that the axiom holds true – voters aren’t looking to punish the incumbent in a by-election caused by a Constitutional snafu, and so any swing that might be apparent in a general election is far more muted in this case.
All that said, a 4-5% uniform swing at the next election will be more than enough to put Labor on the Treasury benches.
As with New England (which was only two weeks ago, and has already been forgotten), I don’t think this will have much effect long-term, though it will no doubt put a spring in Truffles’ step over Christmas, and probably makes his position safe in the short-medium term. But remember that it’s mid-December, and the entire country is about to hit the snooze button for the next six weeks. Come February, and this will be old news.
Query also whether you’re going to get a by-election protest vote when voters know that their party will probably lose power if the seat is lost.
Wakefield @ #210 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 7:54 pm
Boerwar will be ecstatic !
5% is an average swing in a by-election.
But, if it does get to 5%, this is a boost to Turnbull and to his position vis a vis the Delcons.
He will now go ahead with a reshuffle and have a happy time for Christmas.
Last election Labor had a largely unknown candidate and put little resources in the seat.
This time big sums and a “name” candidate. 4-5% is a poor result
OC
Perhaps the Obeid factor hurt?
Soon be Xmas and this night will be long forgotten.30th Newspoll for Turnbull next year.
So with William showing labor plus 4.1 from the last election on the side, but NSW LNP only 3.2 down, a 4ish isn’t a long way ahead of par, would be very interesting to see what it is at the next election particularly if they don’t get KK to run again then, so we can see have a bit of a punt at what if any impact KK had on this little baby.
Sky spinning as usual.
BW
I am absolutely certain that the shadow of Obeid hangs over this disaster
When will reform occur in the NSW ALP. Until it does NSW will be a drag on the national progressive vote
**4-5% is a poor result**
Hard to know how to factor in the by-election with an incumbent thing. Regardless, 5% is not a loss for Turnbull. So, in that respect, it becomes a win for him.
Rather disappointing, rather like election night 1977. It’s not for lack of a good candidate and a good campaign. Maybe all that Dastyari crap, a manufactured issue if ever there was one, bit hard. The Obeid stuff as well. Smear worked. Expect to see more.
Of course, this wasn’t a normal by-election. The stability of Government doesn’t normally depend upon the outcome. Plus the incumbent is not normally in place.
Anyway, Malcolm will be shouting the greatest victory since Waterloo and the media will chime in.
Why are people disappointed here? Trumble is getting hammered in the polls and his 30th Newspoll is coming next year.The MSM are trying their bollocks off to change the polls and its not going to change anytime soon.
Steve777 on the money as usual.
Galaxy. No. Rechtel. No. Press Gallery. No.
December 4 2009
Premier Nathan Rees:
‘Should I not be Premier by the end of this day, let there be no doubt in the community’s mind, no doubt, that any challenger will be a puppet of Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi.”
**I am absolutely certain that the shadow of Obeid hangs over this disaster**
It hangs over my perception of the ALP and I have been out of NSW for 13 years.
Anyway, Malcolm will be shouting the greatest victory since Waterloo and the media will chime in.
And the polls will shift in time accordingly….you’ll see…..
Will Turnbull allow JA to make the winner’s speech or will he horn in to gloat about this win?
I’ve been expecting for quite some time (some years) that the voters would turn against parties other than the Libs and Labor as they just give us parliaments that are indecisive.
We may be seeing the start of it.
The Greens down 2% in a city seat is pretty woeful.
Asha Leu @ #215 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 7:55 pm
I would dispute that.
If a single seat poll is conducted with a sufficiently large random sample, it should be as accurate as any other poll.
The general problem with such polls is that the samples are usually much smaller than a national poll.
There may be problems more specific to seats like Bennelong in getting accurate responses from some ethnic groups.
I was involved with a group of amateur pollsters who polled our seat at a Federal Election and we were within 0.5% of the actual vote.
Evening all.
I learnt Truscott St is one of the most conservative booths.
It wasn’t bad, but not great.
I think voters didn’t like their member falling because of section 44, and also the instability if the seat was won by Labor.
Low point – hot weather.
High point – handing out HTVs with Ryde citizen of the year, an old Labor stalwart.
As Briefly says, the voters are always right.
ABC talking head in Liberal land suggests Turnbull will be there holding JA’s hand.
Or elbowing him out of the way to grab the microphone more like!
Turnbull is safe, for now. Actually a good result for the Libs all things considered.
Never seen such pessimism here over a by election.The overall polls havent just changed overnight.Its 1 by-election.When the polls return to 50-50 then it will be a different story.Happy days until then.
Steve777
“Rather disappointing, rather like election night 1977.”
_____________________________________
I will never forget that night politically. It was when I realised that what seemed obvious to me was not how the voters at large saw it. What was striking about that night was that NOTHING happened.
This by-election is nothing at all like that night. There were so many issues at play – especially a number of issues favouring the government that would not exist in a more typical by-election when the incumbent has resigned or dies. Despite that there has still been a hefty swing to Labor on a 2pp, which belies the result in New England only a couple of weeks ago.
This is a good result for Labor objectively. It is just well below our hopes, rather than our reasonable expectations.
Oakeshott Country @ #225 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 8:00 pm
You need to have a discussion with C@t. I will enjoy watching on the sidelines but barracking for your point of view.
CTar1, you’re spewing nonsense, and any analysis of the polls reveals that over the past few years, if the voters have been turning away from any parties, those parties have been the two majors.
Good post John Reidy.
Agree. Voters don’t like having to vote because of s44. They don’t blame the incumbent.
Imho the NSW branches of the Greens and Labor are pretty terrible
Now that this is over, perhaps we can start a sweep over what time tomorrow Australia will declare.
When Keneally was first announced as Labor’s candidate, I did say at the time that it seemed a pretty risky choice, given her, um, history. Then after the initial seat polls came out I figured I must have the extent to which Obeid and the latter years of the last NSW Labor government still hanging over her head. Now, I’m not so sure. I think Oakeshott Country may be on to something, to be honest.
If Labor were indeed planning to parachute Keneally into Dastyari’s seat, I daresay they might be reconsidering it now.
Or, I suppose they could go with Rex’s suggestion instead and make her federal Labor leader. What could go wrong?
Yes William
But riverside Putney came in straight after and the swing is now under 4.5
An overall swing of less than 5%, I think, is disappointing. But in the grander scheme of things, Labor has jumped ahead in a seat it went backwards in during an election that had a 3% swing against the government. Not emboldening for the Liberals in the long run, making it more marginal. It won’t take much of a nation wide swing to knock the government back to opposition.
Shorten is the problem- he’s a private school bovver boy like Turnbull in the British mould- just like Blair, Cameron, Clegg, Boris etc…
ALP need to take a leaf out of NZ Labour.