| Projected ALP swing | Projected 2PP | ALP win probability |
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
#
|
%
|
Swing
|
#
|
%
|
Proj.
|
Swing
|
|
| Robinson (ALA) |
623
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Folitarik (SPP) |
827
|
1.1%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jansson (FUT) |
902
|
1.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alexander (LIB) |
31,901
|
44.1%
|
-5.9%
|
39,195
|
54.2%
|
54.1%
|
-5.6%
|
| Keneally (ALP) |
26,290
|
36.3%
|
+7.4%
|
33,172
|
45.8%
|
45.9%
|
+5.6%
|
| Platter (APEP) |
149
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alick (GRN) |
5,000
|
6.9%
|
-2.0%
|
|
|
|
|
| Ziebell (AAHP) |
622
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fels (NCP) |
116
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Richa (ACP) |
3,251
|
4.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cao (CDP) |
2,299
|
3.2%
|
-3.5%
|
|
|
|
|
| Golding (AUP) |
386
|
0.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FORMAL |
72,366
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Booths reporting on primary vote (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Booths reporting on two-party preferred (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Formal votes counted as % of enrolment (106,582) |
67.9%
|
||||||
Summary
All I have to add at this stage is the chart below, which seeks to give some insight into how well by-election swings have worked historically as pointers to the next election result – to which the answer is, not very well at all. Featured are all federal by-elections contested by both the Coalition and Labor back to the Whitlam government, with the by-election swing to the government (nearly always negative) recorded on the horizontal axis, and the subsequent election swing (usually negative as well) on the vertical. As such, all by-elections for a given parliamentary term have the same result on the vertical axis. I have also included a line recording the correlation between the two variables, but only for by-elections that were not held in the first nine months of the parliamentary term, which are usually a lot more favourable for the government. However, the predictive power of the underlying equation is very poor (the r-squared result is 0.0655), as it could hardly fail to be, given the government recorded a favourable swing of 7.4% in New England a fortnight ago.
Election night
9.38pm. I believe that’s it for this evening – counting of postals will not begin until tomorrow. I have three polling booths listed as outstanding, but I believe two of them were not in service.
8.41pm. The big West Ryde pre-poll voting centre is in, and its impact is modest, although the Labor swing has at least nudged above 5% now.
8.15pm. And now some other booth has taken it away again.
8.12pm. A booth I suspect to be Gladesville North has ratcheted up the swing to Labor by a bit over half a point.
8.08pm. In my search for something interesting observe, I would note that large additions to the count should occur late in the evening with the pre-poll voting. These might have the effect of nudging the swing a few per cent, in one direction or another. For the time being though, the swing has been stable for some time at a bit under 5%.
7.54pm. Swing steadying at around 5%.
7.51pm. With half the booths in on the primary vote, I’m now projecting a slightly bigger Labor swing of 5.0%.
7.48pm. Not seeing much of a pattern to the swings: double-digit swings to Labor in three booths, Carlingford, Marsfield and Middle Ryde, which aren’t in any particular proximity. Weak results for Labor in Eastwood West, Gladesville and Truscott.
7.39pm. Eleven booths now in on two-party, still only 17 on primary.
7.36pm. Two more two-party results in, and the swing remains settled at 4-5%. Unlike the ABC, I’m projecting two-party totals in the seven booths that have only reported on the primary vote, but it’s not making much difference.
7.34pm. An eight two-party result, and same again: swing now up to 4.5%.
7.32pm. A seventh two-party result is better for Labor, so the swing projection is now up to 3.5%.
7.31pm. A couple more booths on the primary vote, and the Liberals position has strengthened still further, to the extent I’m now projecting essentially no swing at all.
7.30pm. A fairly striking improvement for the Liberals on preference flows. My early prognostications were based on noting the similar primary vote swings, but it turns out 6% movements on the primary are only translating into 2% on two-party.
7.28pm. Twelve on the primary vote, six on two-party, and still looking a disappointing result for Labor. It may be worth noting Tony Burke’s point that Labor is doing better in Chinese areas, including a double-digit swing in Carlingford, and that these tend to be larger booths that will report later.
7.26pm. Tony Burke more or less conceding on the ABC.
7.25pm. Okay, I’ve now got those two-party numbers and I’m seeing what Antony’s seeing — hardly any swing at all.
7.23pm. Antony Green has five results from two-party preferred, whereas I’m only seeing one – so definitely take my projection with a grain of salt so long as it says there’s only one two-party result in the count.
7.19pm. Eight booths in on the primary vote, and Ryde reporting on two-party preferred. By projecting Ryde’s preferences across the booths with primary votes only, I’m projecting Labor with a pretty handy swing. However, this is projecting a lot from a little – I would want more than one small two-party result before I read anything into it.
7.11pm. The AEC is projecting a swing to Labor of 4.7%, which I presume is based off a single booths two-party total that I’m not seeing published anywhere.
7.10pm. Eastwood West slightly reduces Labor swing, but still no two-party numbers.
7.08pm. Carlingord has now reporting, along with Macquarie Park, and it has indeed boosted the swing to nearly 8%, albeit that this would still leave Labor a little short.
7.06pm. Tony Burke talking up Labor’s performance in Carlingford, saying it points to a big swing to Labor in Chinese communities.
7.03pm. The larger Truscott booth is a much better result for the Liberals, suggesting a swing more like 5%.
7.01pm. Primary vote numbers in from Marsfield and Ryde, both consistent with a swing of about 9% to Labor, suggesting a very close result.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Bennelong by-election. This being an urban electorate, we shouldn’t expect any serious numbers for about an hour or so. I will hopefully be offering my own prognosis of the situation in the table above, but it’s all a bit experimental and we’ll have to wait to see if it works.
Essential 54-46. 53-47,55-45. Labor still a long way ahead.
Bugger.
That small a swing is quite unattractive … interesting.
3.7% swing.. jesus, this is far worse than even my most pessimistic predictions.
It is very early days in the count is a river called denial…..let it go…..my advice, switch off the telly, radio, intertubes for a few days, avoid as far as possible all/any images of smiling triumphant Malky….you know it makes sense.
Green has done all but outright call it for the Libs.
Seems as if the media which hunt worked…
Why did Labor fail?
Look at the choice of candidate. Not all New South Welsh have such a problem with their short term memory that they have forgotten how she became premier and what her government was like.
AB
But there is no evidence that these “in situ” by elections are hardr to win than normal. Quite the opposite.
Dio
Fair enough. I certainly don’t buy the “7% swing being a pass” line though.
Not looking good
So I guess the question now is whether KK takes Dastyari’s seat in the Senate as has been mooted by many in the media.
Its not going to change Newspoll,Essential or any other polls. Brian is still on the nose.
Fuck me.
The primary votes are a gain/loss of about 6%.
Slightly above the 5% average.
It’s a terrible result for the Govt.
It’s a terrible result for Bill Shorten.
Keneally should be proud of her effort and kudos to her for having a go.
Socrates
The swing is 2% booth matched after 14% counted. Labor will not only fall well short of winning but they will be lucky to even get to the 5%.
I just don’t think voters want to toss a sitting member out over the citizenship fiasco, although Feeney could test that.
Skynow projecting 55/45% 2PP
Greater than 6% swing to Labor, with Bill Shorten as leader.
Delusional comments by Rex aside, that’s not too shabby.
Its a conservative electorate.All that matters is a national poll and Trumble is on the nose.
Keneally is experienced in doing concession speeches after disasters
Seems I underestimated voter enthusiasm for table tennis tables.
54.9%-45.1% so far on 2PP according to Sky.
Wonder who will win the sweep?
It looks like Australia will have to declare at some stage by the look of it. England’s bowlers are having no impact at all.
Dio
Yes on those numbers (swing under 5%) you have to say its a good result for the Liberals.
This will buy Trumble some time… that’s it.
3.5% – something very very wrong with the Labor leadership and product here when everything was going in the alps favour.
I dare say the liberals will be hoping shorten survives to Election Day.
Diogenes,
That swing is up to 5.2% according to Antony Green. So don’t gloat too soon about low swings.
8th booth reporting and we’re now up over a 5% swing on the AEC count!
Of course as more of the vote gets counted it gets harder for one booth to move the pendulum.
Its not going to change Newspoll,Essential or any other polls. Brian is still on the nose is also a river called Denial.
By March next year polls will be 51/49 to Labor….by May 50/50
I said it here first.
grimace:
You need to report the sweep numbers!
Hola Bludgers.
What’s happening? Are the turkey’s voting for Christmas again!
Same old same old. Mal will go that’s a certainty, by-election or no by-election.
ESJ,
For an incumbent MP to have a 5.2% swing against them is nothing to cheer about.
Labor up 6%
Greens down 2%
Di Natalie has questions to answer.
Confessions @ #180 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 4:37 pm
I posted the final sweep numbers earlier today on the last thread, don’t want to flood the thread. I’ll post again once the result is near certain.
Mund0
Rubbish.
Not fussed – sitting members removed by S44 always seem to get re elected, and usually have a swing towards them.
Didn’t mean I didn’t hope this one would be different, but I’m not surprised or shocked at the result.
The big conclusion is that the voters are rejecting the novelty parties and are returning in force to the majors.
I am sure the abc will ram that message down the viewers, throats, not.
Okay, it’s not looking as bad as it was before. Not great, but not terrible either.
Labor will be disapointed, but I don’t think Shorten’s really going to be losing any sleep over this either. Anyone thinking he’s going to be tossed out over this is deluding themselves.
C@tmomma @ #181 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 7:38 pm
It is something to cheer about for a government on its last legs.
Surely the attempts by the neo-Terrigals to rehabilitate Jane Jetson are now over
There has been a broad range of bi-elections in vast diverse range of safe government seats and we can definitely conclude that means very definitely [insert favourite hobby horse]
Confessions @ #180 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 4:37 pm
At the moment Ophuph Hucksake is the only one in the running with their entry at 56.8 – 46.2 to the Liberals.
C@tmomma @ #182 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 7:38 pm
And in a by-election triggered by a technicality where the expected swing is to the incumbent, not against.
If there is a swing of 5 % then there would be a 5% swing across all electorates.That means Trumble is terminal.
No doubt with yet another crisis not far off either.
Asha Leu @ #186 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 7:41 pm
The ALP are in denial about his anchor effect so of course he won’t be tossed.
Labor has only won the seat once.Needs to be put in perspective.
Rex:
Right. It was all Shorten’s fault.
For all we know, it could have been Keneally who dragged the vote down. She did lead one of the most unpopular state governments in living memory, after all.
(NOTE: I don’t actually think that’s the reason – this result strike me as being more just a combination of a safe Liberal seat, incumbancy blunting the by-election effect, and unrealistic expectations brought on by typically unreliable seat polls. Just pointing out the ridiculousness of Rex’s statement.)
The combined CDP/ACP vote is up 2% – is this a reaction to SSM?