| Projected ALP swing | Projected 2PP | ALP win probability |
|
PRIMARY VOTE
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
|
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
#
|
%
|
Swing
|
#
|
%
|
Proj.
|
Swing
|
|
| Robinson (ALA) |
623
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Folitarik (SPP) |
827
|
1.1%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jansson (FUT) |
902
|
1.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alexander (LIB) |
31,901
|
44.1%
|
-5.9%
|
39,195
|
54.2%
|
54.1%
|
-5.6%
|
| Keneally (ALP) |
26,290
|
36.3%
|
+7.4%
|
33,172
|
45.8%
|
45.9%
|
+5.6%
|
| Platter (APEP) |
149
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alick (GRN) |
5,000
|
6.9%
|
-2.0%
|
|
|
|
|
| Ziebell (AAHP) |
622
|
0.9%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fels (NCP) |
116
|
0.2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Richa (ACP) |
3,251
|
4.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cao (CDP) |
2,299
|
3.2%
|
-3.5%
|
|
|
|
|
| Golding (AUP) |
386
|
0.5%
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FORMAL |
72,366
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Booths reporting on primary vote (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Booths reporting on two-party preferred (out of 41) |
38
|
||||||
| Formal votes counted as % of enrolment (106,582) |
67.9%
|
||||||
Summary
All I have to add at this stage is the chart below, which seeks to give some insight into how well by-election swings have worked historically as pointers to the next election result – to which the answer is, not very well at all. Featured are all federal by-elections contested by both the Coalition and Labor back to the Whitlam government, with the by-election swing to the government (nearly always negative) recorded on the horizontal axis, and the subsequent election swing (usually negative as well) on the vertical. As such, all by-elections for a given parliamentary term have the same result on the vertical axis. I have also included a line recording the correlation between the two variables, but only for by-elections that were not held in the first nine months of the parliamentary term, which are usually a lot more favourable for the government. However, the predictive power of the underlying equation is very poor (the r-squared result is 0.0655), as it could hardly fail to be, given the government recorded a favourable swing of 7.4% in New England a fortnight ago.
Election night
9.38pm. I believe that’s it for this evening – counting of postals will not begin until tomorrow. I have three polling booths listed as outstanding, but I believe two of them were not in service.
8.41pm. The big West Ryde pre-poll voting centre is in, and its impact is modest, although the Labor swing has at least nudged above 5% now.
8.15pm. And now some other booth has taken it away again.
8.12pm. A booth I suspect to be Gladesville North has ratcheted up the swing to Labor by a bit over half a point.
8.08pm. In my search for something interesting observe, I would note that large additions to the count should occur late in the evening with the pre-poll voting. These might have the effect of nudging the swing a few per cent, in one direction or another. For the time being though, the swing has been stable for some time at a bit under 5%.
7.54pm. Swing steadying at around 5%.
7.51pm. With half the booths in on the primary vote, I’m now projecting a slightly bigger Labor swing of 5.0%.
7.48pm. Not seeing much of a pattern to the swings: double-digit swings to Labor in three booths, Carlingford, Marsfield and Middle Ryde, which aren’t in any particular proximity. Weak results for Labor in Eastwood West, Gladesville and Truscott.
7.39pm. Eleven booths now in on two-party, still only 17 on primary.
7.36pm. Two more two-party results in, and the swing remains settled at 4-5%. Unlike the ABC, I’m projecting two-party totals in the seven booths that have only reported on the primary vote, but it’s not making much difference.
7.34pm. An eight two-party result, and same again: swing now up to 4.5%.
7.32pm. A seventh two-party result is better for Labor, so the swing projection is now up to 3.5%.
7.31pm. A couple more booths on the primary vote, and the Liberals position has strengthened still further, to the extent I’m now projecting essentially no swing at all.
7.30pm. A fairly striking improvement for the Liberals on preference flows. My early prognostications were based on noting the similar primary vote swings, but it turns out 6% movements on the primary are only translating into 2% on two-party.
7.28pm. Twelve on the primary vote, six on two-party, and still looking a disappointing result for Labor. It may be worth noting Tony Burke’s point that Labor is doing better in Chinese areas, including a double-digit swing in Carlingford, and that these tend to be larger booths that will report later.
7.26pm. Tony Burke more or less conceding on the ABC.
7.25pm. Okay, I’ve now got those two-party numbers and I’m seeing what Antony’s seeing — hardly any swing at all.
7.23pm. Antony Green has five results from two-party preferred, whereas I’m only seeing one – so definitely take my projection with a grain of salt so long as it says there’s only one two-party result in the count.
7.19pm. Eight booths in on the primary vote, and Ryde reporting on two-party preferred. By projecting Ryde’s preferences across the booths with primary votes only, I’m projecting Labor with a pretty handy swing. However, this is projecting a lot from a little – I would want more than one small two-party result before I read anything into it.
7.11pm. The AEC is projecting a swing to Labor of 4.7%, which I presume is based off a single booths two-party total that I’m not seeing published anywhere.
7.10pm. Eastwood West slightly reduces Labor swing, but still no two-party numbers.
7.08pm. Carlingord has now reporting, along with Macquarie Park, and it has indeed boosted the swing to nearly 8%, albeit that this would still leave Labor a little short.
7.06pm. Tony Burke talking up Labor’s performance in Carlingford, saying it points to a big swing to Labor in Chinese communities.
7.03pm. The larger Truscott booth is a much better result for the Liberals, suggesting a swing more like 5%.
7.01pm. Primary vote numbers in from Marsfield and Ryde, both consistent with a swing of about 9% to Labor, suggesting a very close result.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Bennelong by-election. This being an urban electorate, we shouldn’t expect any serious numbers for about an hour or so. I will hopefully be offering my own prognosis of the situation in the table above, but it’s all a bit experimental and we’ll have to wait to see if it works.
Newsflash just been declared that JA as won with a big swing to him
“Speers said that the Chinese have tried to interfere with the Bennelong by election.”
I’m sick already of this Chinese under the beds racist yellow peril thing, yeah like other superpowers and like the UK and the US they put their self interest first and we are entitled to put our self interest first, but can’t we do it in a mature subtle confident way.
You can almost see Ulhman wetting his pants as he tweets the cover of the economist, and I read the Economist article when a mate who works for a Chinese fund in Hong Kong (money out of Bejing) posted it on facebook. There was nothing in it.
Apparently, China is prepared to work on being put in a positive light and tries to resist being put in a bad light using what influence they have. Truly amazing, world-shattering surprise that. And you know what if a Country, say like Australia, has no ICAC at a federal level, and possibly the stupidest and most naive political donation laws in the world, yeah they might well take a bit of an advantage of that.
Can you point me to a country that wouldn’t?
s
Having met Mr Z, I can assure you that he has a larger than average head but is not particularly big-headed.
Speaking of large appendages, a colleague who recently had a baby brought her 5 week old baby into the office yesterday for a visit. That kid has the longest fingers, the biggest hands and biggest feet I’ve ever seen on a baby, never mind a 5 week old baby!
WWP
The Chinese DID try to interfere in the election. So did the Americans – they had their star performer Hockey out and about saying the most outrageous things.
I’m watching the ABC’s coverage of the by-election and was interested in the volunteer numbers. Unfortunately my 4yo was busy shouting and I missed the Liberal volunteer numbers. Tony Bourke reported 4,000 Labor volunteers on the campaign, and I saw Alexander say that the Liberals had 600 volunteers on their campaign. Could someone confirm for me?
Formal complaint to the AEC: Liberal scrutineers have touched ballot papers. Verboten. Naughty.
Obviously returning booths by foot
“Newsflash just been declared that JA as won with a big swing to him”
It must’ve been on the ABC.
4/445 and cracking on.
Hah!!! Sudmalis [aka the Dud] turned up this afternoon at East Denistone, saw the Gilmore girls and racked off!
So, this is what happens with Turnbull’s wet string NBN…
Sorry grimace I didn’t hear the talk about volunteer numbers.
The only swing JA will get is in his garden or on his verandah.
No exit poll?
Is Lee, Wayne?
Boewar
Only the weather will save England.Smith 200 soon.
“The Chinese DID try to interfere in the election. So did the Americans – they had their star performer Hockey out and about saying the most outrageous things.”
But of course they try, I’d be disappointed in them if they didn’t try. We can be genuinely scared if ever they get as good as those evil bastards in Israel that murder kids, women and innocent men whenever they feel like it, and still have the best PR and the most positive policy stance you could imagine or money can buy on both sides of the Parliament in every single Parliament in Australia.
Obviously being a country of evil bastards so happy as we are to torture and kill innocent people probably can’t be casting the first stone.
So when do we usually get first results. Not trying to cast doubt on the good work of the AEC but shouldn’t we be seeing results….. ~1% is 1000 votes, that couldn’t take that long surely?
**Pardon me, but is this Mitch Marsh the same one that was earlier being ridiculed on PB and his selection attacked?**
A terrific innings coming at an important and tricky time in the match (new ball).
His ability as a batsman at the top level was questioned. I still question it. It is one innings on a flat track against a worn out attack. I still see flaws. But hopefully this innings gives this young chap the boost he needs.
And as i said it. here we go.
First results up at the AEC…-7.32% swing against JA
Sky’s coverage of Bennelong has quite obviously and deliberately been focused solely on non-policy issues such as Obeid & local Chinese sentiment. Their agenda has clearly been directed along Liberal talking points.
First booth in, 8% swing against Alexander. 0.6% counted.
Hah nice one Tony, well prosecuted soundbite about the Dastayari intelligence leaks. Burke hasn’t got to where he is because he’s short of a quick intellect that’s for sure
first booth, swing is 8%… not enough
WWP
I was not making a comment on the meaning of the universe – merely that Speers was correct when he stated that the Chinese tried to intervene in the Bennelong by-election.
ABC polishing up their headlines for whatever result:
“Stunning rebuke to a shellshocked Shorten as KK has a narrow win in by election based solely on local issues in the electorate and not reflecting in any way on Glorious Leader Turnbull, may he rule forever.”
“Stunning humiliation for a desolate and ineffective opposition leader Shorten as KK fails narrowly to defeat incumbent Team Turnbull hero in a virtual referendum result that fully endorses Glorious Leader Turnbull’s magnificent government in what is yet another glorious moment in a year full of glorious triumphs, may he rule forever. “
First numbers up. Swing of 7.5% to Labor. Minus 1.9% for the Greens.
j341983,
Lee is Wayne’s brother. Lee Kerr.
:-]
I’m calling for Alexander.
SK
Exactly. It’s his first century in 20 tests. One swallow does not make a summer.
Sky calling 7.5% a ‘small’ swing. So the polish is on big time.
“I was not making a comment on the meaning of the universe – merely that Speers was correct when he stated that the Chinese tried to intervene in the Bennelong by-election.”
The silly ‘get sam i’ and the even more ridiculous ‘get sam ii’ followed by ignoring all other recipients of vast sums of money followed by the ‘OMG China tries to advance its national interest’ stories has me even grumpier than my normal bloody grumpy self.
@Boerwar – that’s kind of ridiculous
mundo @ #49 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 6:48 pm
Frank provided lots of colour and movement.
I miss him.
twotonup
How the hell does ‘Australia’s Security’ depend on a Coalition government specifically!?!
Marsfield and Ryde in – these are mid seat and could be bellweather.
If so nowhere good enough
i am calling it for JA and he will be returned for the member of bennelong
Smith has his double ton. 🙂
I declare the omens favorable. 🙂
My outlier prediction is still in play 🙂
How about we wait until a decent representative whack of the vote is in, rather than want to call it first?
Tony Burke says 11% swing in Chinese heavy Carlingford booth
Another booth in (Macquarie Park). Now ~6% swing.
Go Carlingford!
JA down 11.6%
KK/ALP up 13.2%
Zimmerman looked a bit disconcerted at the first numbers from Carlingford.
Well done to Smith. He rubs me the wrong way but that double century is very well deserved.
#cricketonPB
Greens going nowhere fast.
ooohhh, cunning disguise there, Wayne…