Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. grimace says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 2:30 pm
    Final sweep entries:

    Poll Bludger Sweep
    Bennellong By-Election

    First prize?
    5 sessions of phone banking for Kim Travers in Pearce 🙂

  2. bug1 @ #393 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 2:31 pm

    Your not looking deep enough, there is a lot of gray in Politics.

    I was going to make a similar comment. Sometimes it takes more than one election to defeat your opponent. Sometimes you have to play a longer game. A good solid swing this time is all that is necessary to prepare for victory in the next election, and also to loosen Mal’s deathgrip on the PMship.

  3. Given all the circumstances around this election a win would be a win for Turnbull. All the federal polling is showing a material swing against the government since July, it’s a by-election and usually there is a swing against the government and Turnbull continues to be attacked by the conservatives.

    PB’ers tend to set a very high bar for Turnbull.

    I do agree that Turnbull will likely not survive a loss today.

  4. I notice the Ladbrokes sidebar has come in a bit on Bennelong today.
    Any Other

    Last night it was something like.

    BTW, Ladbrokes had the L-NP ahead for the QLD campaign and only came in to 50-50 on polling day.

  5. @ESJ…..”Will the Popular Front department in Beijing be taking the Antony Green feed?”…….

    Julie Bishop should be able to tell you. She got $500K from their mates.

  6. CTaR1
    We are headed towards 17 million frig/freezer units. Frozen stuff does not take kindly to power breakdowns.

    Refrigerators and freezers
    Refrigerator and freezer energy use grew slowly at the start
    of the study period but has been in decline since 2004. In
    1986 refrigerators and freezers usage combined accounted
    for approximately 26 PJ and by 2020 this is projected to
    have decreased to approximately 24 PJ. This decrease
    is predicted to occur despite an increase in total stock
    (refrigerators and freezers) from approximately 10 million
    units in 1986 to an estimated 17 million units by 2020
    (70% increase).
    Since the early 1990s the average energy consumption of
    new refrigerators and freezers has improved significantly,
    with a 40% reduction from 1993 to 2006 (EES 2006). These
    improvements have been driven by both the energy labelling
    program and by the introduction of MEPS requirements in
    1999 followed by more stringent levels in 2005. The 2005
    MEPS levels will continue to place downward pressure on
    energy growth for these products over the study period.

  7. Edwina StJohn says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 2:29 pm
    Both sides went all in briefly. A lot of Chinese and other Obeid money behind kk.

    Most likely Turnbull is toast after a kk win tonight but the converse is also true for shorten. Hard political realities chaps.

    I can assure you, E, Shorten has nothing to fear from the result in Bennelong. Nothing. But dream on. If all the Liberals have to sustain them is the hope of trouble in Labor’s ranks, then all really is lost for them. Labor have Turnbull’s measure, just as they had Abbott’s.

  8. Fair post David wh.

    The problem with oz politics is you don’t have a dismissal mechanism for disaffected people.

    Other than offering ambassadorships those who are disaffected stay in parliament to shaft their successors in both parties. It’s happened now for the last 8 years.

    Presumably if Turnbull goes down tonight the liberals wil
    End up adopting a Rudd 2013type reform for the same reason.

    Of course the problem will be there are good and proper reasons to take out a party leader mid term so any rule can’t encompass all possible circumstances.

  9. DWH,
    Astute observation. A big swing against would not be as consequential for MT as a loss. The only issue is do a majority in the Party Room think that Julie, ScoMo or the odious Dutton or even Tony will save the furniture? My gut says they will stick.

  10. The most interesting remark about Bennelong I heard from the media this week was from an SBS report. The gist was that while the Sino-phobics featured in the public political theatre, most voters were still concerned with the usual staples – health, education, services and so on. These terms are code for “reasons to vote Labor”. If this reflects the wider field of opinion among voters, KK will win.

  11. The other party with something to play for today is the Conservatives. If they fail to get into double-digits, or at least to match the Gs, they will have flopped.

  12. CTar1 says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 2:51 pm

    ‘The NE result reflected the withdrawal of Windsor’

    Did anyone voting there really think Windsor would actually stand?

    He’s another casualty. Politics is a cruel sport.

  13. The MSM will have to write 2 stories tonight each.One for Turnbull winning and one for him losing.They are praying to run the Turnbull win story.

  14. Kezza, the Elon Musk batteries can only produce the 100megawatts for an hour, the Morwellian diesels can pump out 100megawatts for as long as they are fed diesel (and don’t blow up).

    And the reason why they landed up in Morwell and not say closer to Melb is because they have the transmission line connections/infrastructure there. Same reason AGL will be putting their new generation equipment on the Liddell site when the existing coal generator is retired. And also the reason that AGL placed a lot of their wind generation where they did- because they are windy places, obviously, but also they had access to the transmission line infrastructure.

  15. davidwh

    The difference though between this by-election and normal by-elections is that in almost all by-elections, the incumbaent isn’t running, so any personal vote immediately evaporates. So this is far from a typical by-election in that respect.

    Of course it goes without saying that the consequences for Turnbull are far worse if JA loses than if he wins. But if as the polls suggest this goes to the wire, either way a lot of MPs are going to be extremely nervous about their future prospects.

  16. davidwh

    The bar was set high by Turnbull himself, not by we, mere mortals, on PB.

    Everyone, but everyone, sighed in relief when he ousted Tony Stupid, the worst PM in history, bar none.

    And, yet, Turnbull has managed to disaffect nearly everyone, all by himself.

    He has no leadership qualities, at all. Relentlessly caves in to the RW nutjobs. That’s not leadership, that’s a weak figurehead. No wonder so many people are disappointed.

    It’s reflected in the polls. And, strangely enough, there’s not too many on PB who say they’ve actually had an input to the polls regarding Turnbull.

    Perhaps PBers are reflecting the national psyche that Turnbull is hopeless.

    Australia is not a business; it’s a society. Turnbull would do well to consider that.

    And, fair dinkum, I’ve never heard a more inarticulate PM than Turnbull. For a barrister, he can barely string a sentence together, without umms, aahs, . . .

    He’s pathetic.

  17. Edwina StJohn says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 3:03 pm
    Yes boerwar the English bowling attack is about as effective as Chris Bowen is as a treasury spokesperson

    Speaking of tax policies, it’s notable that Labor’s proposals on -ve gearing and tobacco excise, put forward by Chris Bowen, have been broadly accepted and have public support, in contrast to the hopeless excuses heard from fiscally reckless Morrison.

  18. Hopefully most of us will live long enough to be able to use the expression idiot yellow asian men. No wait they are asian so they will vote to the left of politics only white men are idiots.

    Interesting results I thought for our high school leavers this year (well every year for the last decade or more) lot of asian faces, a lot of asian woman at that, but it is ok they will be lefties you know like Singapore and lets not forget China for crying out load that is a socialist country so all is good. Just need to get rid of those idiot white men and it will all be ok, phew I was worried there for a bit but Asia will come to our rescue just wish these bloody idiot white men would die off a bit quicker though.

  19. Kezza I agree Turnbull has been disappointing. Just not sure who they can replace him with and even if that would achieve much at this time. The Libs have needed to re-build since 2007 but the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd shambles gave them an easy way out.

  20. Totally Agree Kezza,

    He also confuses addressing issues with winning arguments. He’s the kind of self appointed know-all everyone tries to avoid at a BBQ.

    Not to mention the Cayman stuff, which for some reason is supposed to go unnoticed. Imagine if Gillard had a Cayman Account? Would the MSM regard it as too gauche to mention?

  21. PeeBee @ 3:03 pm

    According to the local paper, the diesel gens in Morwell are only for back-up power; not slated to run 24-7.

    I live in Motown, Pee Bee, you don’t have to tell me why they’re being installed in Morwell.

    I suppose you know the site where they’re being installed? Where there was supposed to be an asbestos clean-up. Guess that will have to be put on hold.

  22. Davidwh

    Lewis was great … so great he spent about 20 years on TV and Radio telling us he was.

    Kenny, in contrast, just packed up his kit and went home.

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