Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. WeWantPaul says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 12:52 pm
    “No doubt the educated white men who post on this blog – not to mention the bloke who runs it – will be a little surprised by that generalisation WWP.”

    There is a pretty big body of evidence not just in the US, but something like 98% of women of colour knew not to support a racist, homophobe accused of child sex offences and white blokes got it overwhelmingly wrong.

    As was pointed out yesterday, a large number of the white women got it wrong too. So I guess we can assume you regard them as being total idiots as well. So why not say so? Why just the men?

    As for the 98% of black women who allegedly got it right, if that is correct, they do deserve a lot of credit for their common sense.

  2. WeWantPaul @ #330 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 12:58 pm

    I think you’ll find gas is as cheap as chips in the US, it is here in Australia the east coast shot itself in the foot and presold all its gas overseas leaving none for domestic consumption, such that here the MOST expensive electricity is often gas fired.

    True in part. Yes, gas peakers are expensive to run here because of the ridiculously inflated gas price ** , but peakers are expensive to run anywhere. Gas generators in general is not so expensive – SA uses gas for about 1/2 of its electricity. WA uses it for about 1/4.

    ** It turns out to be cheaper to ship natural gas we have sold and shipped to Japan back to Australia than it is to buy the gas locally. How ridiculous is that?

  3. Darn @ #349 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 12:37 pm

    As was pointed out yesterday, a large number of the white women got it wrong too. So I guess we can assume you regard them as being total idiots as well. So why not say so? Why just the men?

    Because the men broke 2-to-1 (or better) in favor of Moore. The women were closer to an even split. As far as possession of idiocy goes, that means the women have demonstrably less.

    If you’re going to regard a group as representing total idiocy, you have to pick the group with the largest proportion of idiots. Groups with smaller proportions of idiots would by definition fail to fit the label.

  4. P1
    **It isn’t really appropriate to compare the cost of a peaker … with a non-peaker, whether fossil or renewable.**
    Oh P1. May the fossil be with you.

  5. Steve,

    The voti g in two seats is not much of an indicator. Particularly as Labor didn’t contest one of them.

    Turnbull and his small number of mates can spin as they like.

    Labor would trounce the Coalition in a full election if one was on now.

    I think I’d be on safe ground suggesting that 80% of Libs in Parliament now would be very interested in alternative employment offers.

  6.  the cost of solar + batteries is only just now coming down from the realms of being unaffordable without subsidies to the realms the merely expensive

    And thence into the realm of ‘you are a complete turkey’, P1 🙂

  7. For whomever it was saying during a lower renewable energy day SA bought coal-fired power, remember that on high RE days, we put RE energy into the grid, reducing Victoria’s need for coal-based power.

    Anyway it will be 38/39 Sunday and Monday here in Adelaide, so that will test the system I under full air-con load.

    I do not worry about a black-out now, as a consumer, so something must have changed and it is not a topic I have come across.

    Turnbull is making an ass or ass’es arske of himself beating up SA’s RE energy solutions. I reckon What’sname ( SA LOTO ) would wish Malcolm would just STFU.

  8. Simon Katich @ #355 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 1:48 pm

    Oh P1. May the fossil be with you.

    The problem you have is that the state that has the most renewables and also now the most batteries – i.e. SA – still finds it necessary to have gas peakers, and is in fact building more of them.

    This tells you several things:

    (i) that they do not do comparable jobs, or that renewables + batteries cannot replace gas peakers cost-effectively, or both; and

    (ii) that renewables alone – i.e. without gas or coal – is not a viable “complete” solution.

    You can of course argue that at some point these will no longer be true, but when will that be? Well, it should tell you something that AGL (who presumably knows a thing or two about this subject) is still proposing to build new gas peakers in NSW, and undoubtedly expects to have them remain economically viable for a normal working lifetime. Say 20 years?

  9. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/bennelong-live-majority-on-line-plus.html
    Bennelong Live: Majority On The Line
    This is where I’ll have comments from 6 pm and over following days; intro post is up.

    In terms of interpretation based on the history of these things I think anything above 52% 2PP is acceptable for the government. Winning with below 52 is poor and losing is obviously a disaster. I’d say they need 56 before they can call it a good result and 58 to call it an excellent one. 52-56 is the inconclusive “meh” zone because there are so many uncertainties and spinnables.

  10. Leaving aside the 2004 election when Wilkie ran on an anti-war platform that detracted from both Labor and Liberal, the lowest Lib PV in recent elections was 39,551 in 2007. This compares with 46,497 in 2016. If, as the polling suggests the Liberal PV falls to 39.5%, and the valid vote is 95,000, then the Liberal should attract 37,525 primary votes today. Other than in 2004, this would be the worst Liberal PV recorded in Bennelong on its current boundaries. It would be low enough for the Liberal to lose or very nearly lose to Labor. Such a low primary vote would correspond with a shift in support to both the Right – to the Cories – and to Labor.

    This would be consonant with everything we’v seen in the published polls since July last year, where the Liberal PV has appeared to be draining away in both directions at once.

    It will be fascinating to see if these trends are re-produced in Bennelong today. Because Turnbull has intervened so heavily in this election, maybe it can be said to have more of the flavour of a general election than is usually the case in by-elections. If voters respond to the choice available today by leaving the Liberals in significant numbers, it will signal a particular rejection of Turnbull. If the Liberals lose Bennelong, will Turnbull resign the leadership? He certainly ought to.

  11. KB

    I am not a pseph, but I am a bit surprized that you are offering an 8% swing as evens.

    I would have thought that a 6% swing would have been evens, normally speaking.
    But wait, there is more.
    It does depend on how you frame it.
    IMO the real test is that Joyce harvested a major swing owards him.
    This generated all sorts of language from Turnbull, including ‘the band is back’.
    Turnbull has announced that Alexander is, wtte, his proxy.
    So Alexander should be able to generate a major swing towards the Coalition.

  12. Because the men broke 2-to-1 (or better) in favor of Moore. The women were closer to an even split. As far as possession of idiocy goes, that means the women have demonstrably less.

    If you’re going to regard a group as representing total idiocy, you have to pick the group with the largest proportion of idiots. Groups with smaller proportions of idiots would by definition fail to fit the label

    Nice try, but to credit a group with TOTAL idiocy would mean they would ALL have to be idiots. The best we can say in this instance is that two thirds of the men were idiots and half of the women. Not very flattering to either of them I wouldn’t have thought.

  13. I’m hoping for a recount.

    The LNP might scrape over the line, but Turnbull’s blood pressure will never be the same and the mejia will tear each other to pieces.

  14. Edwina StJohn says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 2:12 pm
    Yes make or break for both leaders you are right briefly.

    There is only upside for Shorten here, E. Labor have already drawn Turnbull into the campaign, inducing him to risk everything. Barring a completely unforeseen preservation of the Lib PV, the result will be positive for Labor. The terms of the campaign have been determined by Labor, reflecting their tactical superiority. It’s really no wonder that Alexander has seemed so melancholy. He knows his worst political enemy – Malcolm Turnbull – has been campaigning against him for the last 2 weeks.

  15. With so many multicultural voters in Bennelong,ON candidate probably would have been toast.I havent heard one mention of them in recent times.

  16. P1
    Anger, fear, aggression; the dark side of the Force are they. Easily they flow, quick to join you in a fight. If once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny, consume you it will,

    Apology accepted.

  17. “As was pointed out yesterday, a large number of the white women got it wrong too. So I guess we can assume you regard them as being total idiots as well. So why not say so? Why just the men?”

    Couple of reasons I couldn’t remember the women stats except that non-evangelical women got it a lot more right than evangelical women (and who knows perhaps they are just too obedient to their husbands) on the whole as a white man, I’m very comfortable to point out to us how ridiculously privileged and stupid we are as a group, if indeed white women share almost the same level of stupidity, privilege and unearned sense of entitlement that we as a group do, then I’ll leave that to a white woman to go into.

  18. Labor have won even if they lose.They shouldnt even be in the race after the election was only 18 months ago.Shows how poor Turnbull has been.The MSMs love affair with their man will still continue and the voters will still ignore them win or lose.

  19. Edwina StJohn says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 2:19 pm
    You were doing well there briefly until you went for the pop psychology angle. FAIL.

    Oh, nice try, E.

    From the get-go, Labor showed they were prepared to campaign hard in Bennelong. Liberal in-house polling must have shown that Alexander was at risk. This left the Liberals with almost no choice. They have had to throw all their money and, such as it is, their political credibility at a by-election they should ordinarily expect to win easily.

    Turnbull is desperately trying to avert an historic defeat and to defend his parliamentary numbers. If he loses, he’s cactus.

  20. Does anyone familiar with Bennelong know if state issues will play even a small part in the poll?

    In particular, the NSW Liberal government will close the Epping to Chatswood railway next year to rebuild it for use in the new metro out to Rouse Hill. The SMH a month or so ago talked about local angst at having to use replacement buses on congested roads for a long period.

  21. Boerwar – the swing in by-elections is larger when the government is polling badly, so I’m taking that into account.

    It’s really hard to know what to make of New England as to what extent it was just because of weak competition and to what extent it was a sympathy vote for the disqualification.

  22. Both sides went all in briefly. A lot of Chinese and other Obeid money behind kk.

    Most likely Turnbull is toast after a kk win tonight but the converse is also true for shorten. Hard political realities chaps.

  23. Observations from the coalface:

    1. Will no-one think of the Morwellians?

    In the energy bowl of Victoria, the Latrobe Valley, 106 diesel generators are, as I write, being installed at Morwell. To be sure, to prevent a blackout this summer. It will have an output of 96 megawatts, whatever it is, it is apparently equivalent to the Elon Musk battery installation in SA (which also includes, IIRC, 9 diesel generators). After all the soot from the never-ending fires a couple of years ago, can you imagine the noise the long-suffering residents of Morwell will now have to endure to keep those air-cons running in Melb. Spare a thought.

    2. Maggies are by far my favourite bird. I would have voted for Magpies as bird of the year, except I thought there’d be a backlash from the anti-Collingwood, anti-AFL brigade.

    3. In the aftermath of the EM passage, I emailed my local member, Russell Narrowstraight, to protest his No vote. His staff insisted his name was Broadbent.

    Looking forward to tonight’s vote count, albeit with a bit of trepidation. Feel the same as I felt before a netball grand final. Toey, but confident; hoping to play the best game of my life. Congrats to all the PB vols working their butts off, out there in the Bennelong heat. Hope we have a premiership win.

  24. Final sweep entries:

    Poll Bludger Sweep
    Bennellong By-Election

    Name Labor Liberal
    2016 Election 40.28 59.72
    Newspoll 50.00 50.00
    Reachtel 47.00 53.00
    Galaxy 49.00 51.00

    Name Labor Liberal
    Ophuph Hucksake 46.20 53.80
    davidwh 47.00 53.00
    Steve777 47.00 53.00
    Ides of March 47.28 52.72 (comment was 6% – 8%)
    Work To Rule 47.50 52.50
    calumniousfox 47.59 52.41
    Aqualung 47.70 52.30
    The Silver Bodgie 47.70 52.30
    steve davis 48.00 52.00
    It’s Time 48.00 52.00
    Voice Endevour 48.40 51.60
    Diogenes 48.00 52.00
    Ante Meridan 48.10 51.90
    Kevjonno 48.50 51.50
    Matt 48.10 51.90
    Rex Douglas 48.25 51.75
    John Reidy 48.50 51.50
    Confessions 48.80 51.20
    Asha Leu 49.00 51.00
    Lord Haw Haw of Arabia 49.00 51.00
    Simon Katich 49.00 51.00
    Rates Analyst 49.25 50.75
    Clem Attlee 49.80 50.20
    a r 49.99 50.01

    Name Labor Liberal
    Boerwar 50.00001 49.99999
    BK 50.0002 49.9998
    Sonar 50.01 49.99
    Question 50.01 49.99
    Frednk 50.01 49.99 KK by 105 votes
    Poroti 50.08 49.92
    TallebudgeraLurker 50.25 49.75
    PuffyTMD 50.25 49.75
    Taz 50.28 49.72
    don 50.30 49.70
    Chinda63 50.40 49.60
    imacca 50.50 49.50
    Bemused 50.50 49.50
    Mari 50.50 49.50
    Whisper 50.60 49.40
    Socrates 50.75 49.25
    Norwester 50.80 49.20
    Golly 50.80 49.20
    Paddy O 50.88 49.12
    C@tmomma 51.00 49.00
    Outside Left 51.00 49.00
    Sohar 51.00 49.00
    JimmyD 51.00 49.00
    Victoria 51.00 49.00
    Briefly 51.30 48.70
    monica 51.30 48.70
    Dan Gulberry 51.50 48.50
    D-money 51.50 48.50
    Barney in Go Dau 51.60 48.40
    Gecko 51.60 48.40
    Vogon Poet 51.75 48.25
    Jeffemu 51.80 48.20
    laughtong 52.00 48.00
    Desert Qlder 52.00 48.00
    Roger Bottomley 52.00 48.00
    Edwina StJohn 52.10 47.90
    Trog Sorenson 52.1477 47.8523
    Rossmore 52.20 47.80
    Shiftaling 52.30 47.70
    Tom 52.40 47.60
    Sprocket 52.50 47.50
    Adrian 52.70 47.30
    Borris 53.00 47.00
    Grimace 53.28 46.72
    rhwomat 53.50 46.50
    Roger Miller 54.00 46.00
    Antonbruckner11 55.00 45.00
    Fluvio Sammut 58.00 42.00

    My thanks to the 72 Bludgers who entered the sweep, and good luck to KK today.

  25. Edwina StJohn @ #385 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 2:25 pm

    No Steve Davis, you generally win by winning. No prizes for second place in politics it’s not a welfare program.

    Your not looking deep enough, there is a lot of gray in Politics.

    KK can win by losing, if she is seen to have put up a good fight (likely) she might get a senate seat.

    The Labor Party can win if they lose the election, as a close result will weaken each government MP, and make opposition MP’s jobs easier.

  26. Boerwar – the swing in by-elections is larger when the government is polling badly, so I’m taking that into account.

    It’s really hard to know what to make of New England as to what extent it was just because of weak competition and to what extent it was a sympathy vote for the disqualification.

    The NE result reflected the withdrawal of Windsor – the only viable anti-incumbent choice – from the contest. There was a small improvement in the Labor vote. In the absence of a Windsor, ON and the Shooters, the result was absolutely par for the course.

  27. imacca says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 11:41 am

    The value of spin on your recent comments is high enough for them to be getting just a tad boring
    Edwina.

    Hmm….is WayneKerrBot actually more entertaining??

    ESJ makes an effort to be insightful and pithy at least, the bot just spams the same post over and over.

  28. ‘Kevin Bonham says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 2:27 pm

    Boerwar – the swing in by-elections is larger when the government is polling badly, so I’m taking that into account. ‘
    Thanks. I see your point.
    But I would have thought that if the government is polling badly and the by election swing is correspondingly worse, then Turnbull’s (apparent) attempt to turn the by-election into a referendum means that we should take the results on their own terms.

    If, say, an 8% swing, then Turnbull could hardly argue that it would have been 6% except that the Government has been polling poorly for these last 24 Newspolls.

  29. Ptmd

    One of the major problems with power supply and blackouts is that the public are not prepared for them and the power suppliers have not given much information out that blackouts are possible due to lack of available power until the recent happenings.

    Up until the mid-eighties blackouts, not due due to storms but lack of available power were not uncommon.

    Up until now the power suppliers have not been keen on the average punter beig aware of this mainly due to the outrageous increases in power suppled to the home.

    The lack of preparedness needs to be addressed particulary in regard to people at home with illnessess that require machines that need 24/7 power.

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