Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. New York Times on the evangelicals’ campaign for more spending on Christmas, and the fake campaign against “War on Christmas”

    In an irony appreciated by anyone who remembers the original anti-consumption, anti-Santa meaning of the “Reason for the Season” slogan, Fox and allies like the American Family Association focused on getting more Christmas into stores and shopping malls. For more than a decade, Fox News hosts have kept viewers updated on which stores were “in the Christmas spirit,” and the American Family Association, which operates nearly 200 radio stations in the United States, maintains its very own “naughty and nice” list for retailers.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/15/opinion/sunday/war-christmas-evangelicals.html

  2. Note to ALP members hyperventilating about the existing of the Greens – in the ACT we are into the second term of an ALP Greens coalition government. Has worked well – the four horseman of the apocalypse have not arrived. Greens pushing on emission reduction targets – with Corbell finding ways to implement them have worked a treat. Without the Greens pushing on issues like FOI and poker machines ALP would not have moved. Good outcomes all round with virtually no public spats


  3. Edwina StJohn says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 12:09 pm

    Sadly Doug it’s take 76 seats for a majority not just two act seats.

    I suppose this comment is proof you have to be slow to be a Liberal voter.

  4. ESJ @ 11:01
    > “You lot should be more confident in Bills glorious leadership.”

    Party members were never confident in Bills glorious leadership. We voted for Albo by a 60%-40% margin. 🙁

  5. ESJ is even pathetic at trolling

    《Blockquote》Conversely failure consigns him to the codabeen champions bill Hayden memorial category.《/blockquote》

    Just another silly attempt to generate argument.

  6. What is the main reason you are tipping Labor ESJ? Is it the poor economic performance of the Liberals, their blatant dishonesty and hypocrisy, their inability to govern themselves and the country, or just their general incompetence in all areas?

  7. Tetsujin @ #297 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 11:59 am

    ESJ @ 11:35
    > “Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten and should be correctly seen as flinders 1982 – is we can’t win with this guy shorten and necessitating serious thought about a change of leader.”

    Shouldn’t Liberal supporters be hoping for Shorten staying on as leader ? 🙂

    A popular new ALP leader (like Rudd in 2006) would significantly increase the chances of Liberals losing the next election.

    No it wouldnt, an ALP leadership change to anyone would destroy any chance of ALP winning, it would remind people of the leadership troubles from the past (which LNP are now experiencing), and it could only happen if the leadership change rules where thrown out. Which would destroy hope of long term reform within the party.

  8. **white men, even educated white men are total idiots.**
    There was already some heated discussion on PB today wrt challenging someones education.

    Personally, I am less conceited of my education and less self-assured in my intelligence the older I get.

  9. WeWantPaul says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 11:54 am
    Bit of shame Bennelong and Australia don’t have many many more women of colour as they seem to be the wisest voters, and white men, even educated white men are total idiots.

    No doubt the educated white men who post on this blog – not to mention the bloke who runs it – will be a little surprised by that generalisation WWP.

  10. ‘New York Times on the evangelicals’ campaign for more spending on Christmas, and the fake campaign against “War on Christmas”’

    Well they can put the town of Bethlehem into the naughty list for real.
    It was posted here earlier this week that the mayor in the predominantly Arab town cancelled Christmas in a protest against Trump.

  11. From Kohler in The Oz

    ‘…All 1349 (and counting) cryptocurrencies are manifestations of blockchain in some form, and while many of them will undoubtedly collapse and disappear, many won’t and blockchain definitely won’t. Looking at the whole thing as nothing more than a speculative mania or a fad based around bitcoins, litecoins or any cryptocurrency misses the point entirely.

    Blockchain is the biggest disruption since the internet itself. It is beginning to disrupt banking, and is further advanced with other industries.

    This week I spoke to Ed Clarke, the CEO of ASX-listed Singapore-based start-up Yojee, which is combining artificial intelligence and blockchain to disrupt logistics. Last month he signed Scharff, the FedEx provider in Peru and Bolivia on a long-term contract, and the business is now off and running.

    Perth-based Power Ledger is using blockchain to disrupt electricity, and also raised $38 million through a crowd-funding ICO. One of the fast-rising crypto­currencies, called populous, is ­actually an invoice-lending, or old-fashioned London factoring business, except it uses blockchain.
    …’

  12. steve777 – I’ve got a theory that the Libs always get heavier backing than Labor because, well, the Libs have more money. Therefore, Labor’s odds are always better than they look. I wish someone would do a statistical analysis.

  13. Citizen @ 11.52am

    “The predicted big swing against Alexander really seems to have little to do with him personally.”

    On the contrary.

    The spotlight has been on JA far more in this by-election than in normal elections, and he has been exposed to national media and daily news coverage.

    The impression he has given me throughout brings to mind these adjectives:

    lethargic
    dopey
    ill-confident
    ordinary
    uninspiring
    insipid
    inarticulate
    run-of-the-mill

    To me, his nightly images suggest that he is a most unimpressive campaigner and candidate. If I am wrong, then the media have been doing an axe job on him by putting to air only grabs which present him in a poor light.

  14. The Lib campaign appears to be to turn Bennelong into a referendum on Turnbull and the Government.

    Again, we see Turnbull’s ego and lack of political judgement come to the fore!

    While JA has been near invisible throughout the campaign, Turnbull has, of late,been very prominent. It’s clear that Turnbull sees this by election as an existentialist threat to him and his Government. So, any swing above 3-5 % is going to be sheeted home to Malcolm. He will own this result! There will be plenty of nervous NSW MHRs thinking about their futures tonight and by extension Turnbull’s future.

  15. For those interested in energy, I attended a Aussie junior (conventional) gas explorer AGM recently and the CEO stated he thought the fracking industry in America is giant Ponzi scheme. Don’t know much about it myself because I am not that close to it.

    Then again he could be pandering to the shareholders present in the hope they continue to support the company.

  16. “No doubt the educated white men who post on this blog – not to mention the bloke who runs it – will be a little surprised by that generalisation WWP.”

    There is a pretty big body of evidence not just in the US, but something like 98% of women of colour knew not to support a racist, homophobe accused of child sex offences and white blokes got it overwhelmingly wrong.

  17. Up post someone mentioned solar and batteries are no cheaper than a gas peaker somewhere in America. I think I read that it was a 10megawatt gas peaker. I would have thought this is a small gas generator and therefore may be expensive per megawatt and therefore skewing the comparison.

  18. “fracking industry” does he mean unconventional oil / gas industry, because fracking isn’t a new thing and I don’t think it is limited to unconventional oil / gas extraction.

  19. “Up post someone mentioned solar and batteries are no cheaper than a gas peaker somewhere in America. I think I read that it was a 10megawatt gas peaker. I would have thought this is a small gas generator and therefore may be expensive per megawatt and therefore skewing the comparison.”

    I think you’ll find gas is as cheap as chips in the US, it is here in Australia the east coast shot itself in the foot and presold all its gas overseas leaving none for domestic consumption, such that here the MOST expensive electricity is often gas fired.

  20. “No doubt the educated white men who post on this blog – not to mention the bloke who runs it – will be a little surprised by that generalisation WWP.”

    “There is a pretty big body of evidence not just in the US, but something like 98% of women of colour knew not to support a racist, homophobe accused of child sex offences and white blokes got it overwhelmingly wrong”

    Some really silly comments made on this site, I am talking irretrievable stupid but this one is up with the best of them.

    Actually it is one of those comments that incapsulates a left wing thinker, my God that is corker, originally I thought he must be taking the piss, but no. Strong evidence… Wow

  21. Trumble’s heavy handed intervention is an attempt to prove to his party that his confidence in being able to beat Shorten when it counts is not just hubris.

    It is the only thing he has to justify being PM.

    Any win for Alexander will be argued over and Trumble will have some degree of success in making his case to a greater or lesser extent. He’ll likely be able to stumble on til the next disaster.

    But if KK does get up?

    Obviously predicting Trumble’s demise is one of my favourite pastimes and I’ll probably end up predicting 20 of the 1 times he finally goes. But he has personally and explicitly made this one a test of his own position. His basic argument has been that this is a referendum on him and Shorten. His desperate rhetoric of the fall of civilization should Shorten get one seat closer to the Lodge leaves him no wriggle room at all. If he can’t defend a 10% margin in a by election where the incumbent is actually his candidate, in a wealthy middle class seat with only one anomalous term of Labor representation, by making it a campaign on Shorten, then what the fuck use will he be in a general election?

    The Libs are having one of their regular ‘ah this time for sure’ phases where they reckon they’ve got Shorten’s measure and start getting a bit of a spring in their step. It will go the way it always does eventually. But if Keneally wins tonight the thud of their false hopes collapsing will register on seismographs across the world. Trumble’s dummy spit will be one for the ages. And the desperation to do something, anything, to try and change the direction towards disaster will be overwhelming.

    That’s my Christmas wish Santa. Don’t disappoint me you fat bastard.

  22. More than just mainland Oz gets more sum than Minnesota. South tip of Tasmania is about same latitude south as southern border of Minnesota is north. IOW Tasmania gets ~ same sun as Iowa, the next state south.

  23. WeWantPaul says:

    “fracking industry” does he mean unconventional oil / gas industry, because fracking isn’t a new thing

    The “fracking” done in the US is. Their fracking involves “tightly held” hydrocarbons in shales. The technology to extract from such rocks is fairly new. A lot of the “fracking” here refers to coal seam gas extraction and that is pretty ye olde.

  24. “Why? The more seats won by the Greens, the better Labor policy becomes. There is no way that Qld Labor would have backflipped on the Adani coal mine without the Greens making it a big issue that voters paid attention to and understood.”

    The Adani back flip was a position from federal Labor before the state election was called, it was also a very generally popular move with voters. The Greens producing better policy is a myth considering they joined the Liberals to block Rudd’s ETS proposal. When Abbott got into power the environment then took a backseat, point scoring and making polices further left to Labor just to become relevant has always being the meal ticket for the Greens.

    The other thing is because the Greens only have to worry about one or two seats in inner cities. They have no interest or serious solutions to solving problems long term unemployment in the regions rather then just blanket statements.

  25. The SMH doesn’t let up, does it.

    It must have been difficult, but for today’s front page, they’ve managed to find a photo of JA smiling and KK frowning.

  26. “The “fracking” done in the US is. Their fracking involves “tightly held” hydrocarbons in shales. The technology to extract from such rocks is fairly new. A lot of the “fracking” here refers to coal seam gas extraction and that is pretty ye olde.”

    Kinda agree, kinda yes and no. There are much R&D about fracking in shale and freeing oil and / or gas from various subsurface structures, but also the core of it (even in shale) is the ye olde bit.

    I found it very odd to see talk about a ‘fracking industry’ I’ve heard huge amount fracking in all sort of different places but never ever of a fracking industry.

    It is why I find blanket ‘no fracking’ policies to be a bit of an idiots political posture, rather than intelligent policy.

  27. I think one reason MT has been so prominent in Bennelong is they are banking on the PPM metric being the be all and end all. In Malcolm’s view he is much loved because he is still PPM. He probably would not listen to any arguments about incumbency adding undue weight to that metric.

  28. WeWantPaul

    I was going by what I read in some Conoco Philips in house mags back when fracking started to take off. They described as “new technology” methods that were making extraction possible in a number of large US deposits.

  29. WeWantPaul

    Forgot to add. The v high oil prices at the time was a big enabler for shale. I wonder how the economics stack up now with the far lower prices.

  30. PeeBee @ #328 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 12:54 pm

    Up post someone mentioned solar and batteries are no cheaper than a gas peaker somewhere in America. I think I read that it was a 10megawatt gas peaker. I would have thought this is a small gas generator and therefore may be expensive per megawatt and therefore skewing the comparison.

    It isn’t really appropriate to compare the cost of a peaker – the most expensive form of generation, because in a well-managed network they are run quite rarely – with a non-peaker, whether fossil or renewable. The one does not do the same job as the other.

    The fact that this is the most common comparison used by the solar enthusiasts tells you that the cost of solar + batteries is only just now coming down from the realms of being unaffordable without subsidies to the realms the merely expensive.

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