Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

  1. The Toorak Toff says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 11:25 am
    The donkeys will re-elect JA – unless the Conservatives are smart enough to realise that their best chance of getting rid of Turnbull is to vote for KK.

    That’s what I’m thinking. The CON/CDP types may not want to pref JA/MT as much as they have the L-NP in the past.

  2. Rodger, start a sentence with “ESJ thinks” and you are already so wRONg. 🙂

    Edwina has its assigned talking points and spin and will stick to them.

  3. ESJ full of it as usual.

    A strong swing against the Libs will scare the f#ck out of the Libs.

    Turnbullwill claim “Victory!” but his members in marginal seats will be redoubling there ‘seeking alternative eloyment’ efforts.

  4. ESJ:

    Batman will be fun. With two seats in club fed the obvious question will be what the labor green coalition agreement looks like?

    With Shorten poised to win a sizable majority at the next election, I imagine a Labor/Greens coalition agreement is going to be non-existent regardless of how Batman goes.

    Those two seats plus Wilkie could be critical to the perception of stability around Labor.

    Keep dreaming. BludgerTrack currently has Labor winning 90 seats to the Coalition’s 55. The Greens could win ten house seats and not impact Labor’s majority on those numbers.

  5. Thanks for the quick responses to my question ..much appreciated.

    I’m not really sure what point the Greens are making by preferencing three minor parties/independents before Labor ..but it sends a poor message to their supporters imo..

  6. Marksj

    I believe the Greens have a policy of preferencing smaller left wing parties before the majors. Most of those smaller parties are in turn directing preferences amongst themselves, then to Greens then to Lab.

  7. Mark, it sends the message they want to send – Labor are crap, almost anything is better than Labor. But We have to admit even those loon minor parties and the Coalition are just a little bit worse.

    The Greens are NOT Labor’s allies.

  8. “a Labor/Greens coalition agreement”

    Last place this concept surfaced was QLD wasn’t it? 🙂

    Maybe ESJ can pop up there and find this Jabberwock??

    Funny how it keeps coming up. May play to a certain section of the Lib rusted on RWNJobbie frother base but dont think it impacts beyond that. Its in the class of broken record stuff now.

  9. What’s the average swing in by- elections? And when their is a change of govt on the cards it’s even more eg Bass 1975, Canberra 1976.

    Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten and should be correctly seen as flinders 1982 – is we can’t win with this guy shorten and necessitating serious thought about a change of leader.

  10. How many Liberals in “safe ” seats would be thinking a big swing against the conservatives in Bennelong can’t happen to them because Turnbull is leader.?

  11. markjs:

    I’m not really sure what point the Greens are making by preferencing three minor parties/independents before Labor ..but it sends a poor message to their supporters imo.

    I’d prefer they put Labor higher, but I don’t think it really matters. They’re all left-wing micro-parties who will be eliminated from the count well before the Greens candidate. The important thing is that Alexander, at number 9 on the HTV card, is well behind Keneally.

    Greens voters are notorious for not following HTV cards, anyway. I imagine many will put Labor second – particularly given the circumstances of this particular by-election. I certainly would be if I was enrolled in Bennelong.

  12. Yes it is the case that KK is #5 on Greens HTV leaflet.

    My observations from handing out KK HTV’s at Epping pre-poll over the last three weeks, is that support for both major candidates was pretty even if you consider indications given by voters as they entered and left the pre-poll station.

    This could augur well for KK given pre-polls usually favour Libs and/or incumbents.

    However, i dont sense, admittedly from a small sample of anecdotal observations, an overwhelming mood to dump JA. I think it will be KK 47.6% JA 53.4% although of course i hope im wrong.

    Cheers

  13. Info on YouGov takeover of Galaxy but no detail on polling methodology.

    YouGov has announced the acquisition of Sydney-based MR firm and opinion pollster Galaxy Research Pty Ltd, which will be combined with YouGov’s existing Australian business under the leadership of Galaxy founder and MD David Briggs.

    The new firm, YouGov Galaxy, has a team of eleven employees in Australia. The booming UK-based group says Galaxy has an MR offering ‘comparable to’ its own Data Services offering, and a strong reputation in the local market for accurate opinion polling, making it a ‘clear strategic fit’. Galaxy is also the administrator of opinion polling brand Newspoll, and Briggs was GM of Newspoll for eighteen years until founding Galaxy in 2004.

    YouGov’s existing business in the country was established two years ago and focuses on using the Group’s panel data to provide syndicated data products and services – the merger will put the new company in a strong position to expand this, says YouGov. According to CEO Stephan Shakespeare, the acquisition increases the firm’s presence in Australia, ‘a significant market and one which is strategically important to our international clients’.

    Briggs (pictured) comments: ‘Becoming part of YouGov gives Galaxy access to an enviable global profile, a high-quality proprietary panel and operating platform. We look forward to working together to realise our combined ambitions’.

    http://www.mrweb.com/drno/news25469.htm

  14. “Immaca – Kennealy winning would be a miracle.”

    Actually, i think a win , while less likely, would not be a “miracle”. Chances are better than that.

    “Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten”

    Only by RWNJobbies desperately and with laughable incompetence trying to deflect attention from what a complete serial fwark up Truffles and the entire Federal Liberal party has become.

    The value of spin on your recent comments is high enough for them to be getting just a tad boring
    Edwina.

    Hmm….is WayneKerrBot actually more entertaining??

  15. On this election day some words of wisdom from Pappy Bush.

    “It’s no exaggeration to say the undecideds could go one way or another.” —George Bush Sr., in 1988

  16. ESJ:

    Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten and should be correctly seen as flinders 1982 – is we can’t win with this guy shorten and necessitating serious thought about a change of leader.

    Absolute nonsense. Even a 54-46 victory for Alexander would represent a landslide victory for Labor if that swing was replicated nationally. Alexander also has the benefit of incumbency, which is likely to blunt the usual by-election swing a bit.

    Labor may have won this seat in the past, but since 2010 it has very much become a safe Liberal seat, not a marginal – Alexander even managed a swing to him during the 2016 election. This was always going to be an uphill battle for Labor.

  17. Greens voters generally can read and write and have a reasonable understanding of the electoral process. There is no problem at all in their supporting left wing minors ahead of labor. indeed if for example they failed to preference the Science Party they would upset many of their stalwarts. When i hand out HTV (for Labor) nearly all the Green workers seem to be scientists of one kind or another.

    Then there are several who seem to have a predominantly green ,message re planning so it would make no sense at all for a Greens Party NOT to preference such avowedly green candidates.

  18. ESJ: This isn’t “most by-elections”, though. In this case, the most recent incumbent is recontesting, which is very unusual – a substantial part of the swing in the “usual by-election” can be attributed to the lose of the previous incumbent’s personal vote. Also, the “usual by-election” isn’t held when numbers in parliament are so finely balanced – a protest vote in a by-election by erstwhile government supporters doesn’t actually risk changing the government, and those voters know this.

    Really, there aren’t many precedents to benchmark today’s results at all.

  19. The facts are plain , by elections with double digit swings usually signal a change of government at this point in the political cycle.

    I don’t think bill shorten should be prime minister but winning tonight would be pretty conclusive proof that will happen within 12 months. Conversely failure consigns him to the codabeen champions bill Hayden memorial category.

  20. This is a by-election with an incumbent. Early talking head thinking was small swing.

    If it is a big swing then questions will be asked. Those in the anti-Turnbull right will be happy to answer.

  21. Peter Brent‏Verified account @mumbletwits
    5h5 hours ago
    This (not country of birth) is best indicator of NESB migrant-ness. How well are these ~50% of electors being polled?

    :large

  22. KK 47.6% JA 53.4% = 101%

    This particular type of by-election from memory usually record a swing to the incumbent. KK may not win but a swing to the ALP has got to be another nail in Brian’s top hat.

  23. So, ESJ, you have set the bar at a minimum 9.72% swing to KK ( in an electorate which has never, bar 2007, elected anyone except Liberal) or else Shorten needs to look for another job?

  24. The predicted big swing against Alexander really seems to have little to do with him personally. Under normal circumstances he could be expected to hold the seat easily.

    However this is not a normal election and is essentially a referendum on Turnbull and the LNP.

  25. Mueller set to confront White House lawyers in pivotal meeting ‘as soon as next week’

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller is set to meet with President Donald Trump’s lawyers next week as the probe into possible Russian collusion continues.

    According to CNN, sources think that the meeting is more significant than past meetings “because it comes after the completion of interviews of White House personnel requested by the special counsel and after all requested documents have been turned over.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/mueller-set-to-confront-white-house-lawyers-in-pivotal-meeting-as-soon-as-next-week/

  26. It is probably a reasonable assumption to assume that about half the Cantonese speakers will be from Hong Kong, the other half Guanjo.

    Those who speak Mandarin at home will all be from Northern China (although almost all the Cantonese speakers will also speak Mandarin)

  27. Bit of shame Bennelong and Australia don’t have many many more women of colour as they seem to be the wisest voters, and white men, even educated white men are total idiots.

  28. Edwina StJohn @ #279 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 11:45 am

    The facts are plain , by elections with double digit swings usually signal a change of government at this point in the political cycle.

    I don’t think bill shorten should be prime minister but winning tonight would be pretty conclusive proof that will happen within 12 months. Conversely failure consigns him to the codabeen champions bill Hayden memorial category.

    Everything doesn’t have to be so black and white, if there is a 7% swing thats pretty significant, it would cause a lot of concern in LNP ranks.
    Keep in mind, Labor has only held bennelong for one term since 1955 and no poll has had Labor in front.

    If Labor wins it, there will be a fresh assault on Turnbull’s leadership, if it is close will be concern, if LNP win 55-45 then that will be enough to maintain the status-quo, which isnt good either.

  29. A Labor/Green Coalition is just crap wheeled out by the Coalition.

    Is interesting however as that it seems obvious to them it shows that a Lib/Nats/One Nation coalition is not far from their minds.

    Such a thing is quite acceptable to a large majority of the current Coalition.

  30. Female Fox News staffers threaten to ‘go public’ unless Rupert Murdoch stops lying: ‘I’m sick of this sh*t’

    The billionaire owner of Fox News is facing outrage from female staff after dismissing the company’s sexual harassment scandal as “nonsense,” The Huffington Post reported Friday.

    “Hey Rupert – stop with the lies or we’ll go public with the truth,” one former on-air talent warned. “All of it. Including about the talent and executives you still employ who have harassed us and don’t give a damn about workplace respect – only money”

    “How much will it take before you actually start caring about your female employees?” she asked. “Is your 52 billion enough? Are we really going to clean house now?”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/female-fox-news-staffers-threaten-to-go-public-unless-rupert-murdoch-stops-lying-im-sick-of-this-sht/

  31. ESJ @ 11:35
    > “Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten and should be correctly seen as flinders 1982 – is we can’t win with this guy shorten and necessitating serious thought about a change of leader.”

    Shouldn’t Liberal supporters be hoping for Shorten staying on as leader ? 🙂

    A popular new ALP leader (like Rudd in 2006) would significantly increase the chances of Liberals losing the next election.

  32. You lot should be more confident in Bills glorious leadership. These things always come down to these type of show-downs.

    There can only be one etc etc

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