A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.
The Bennelong HTVs can be found at the bottom of this page http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bennelong-by-election-2017/
Batman will be fun. With two seats in club fed the obvious question will be what the labor green coalition agreement looks like?
William, is there going to be a new BludgerTrack this week?
That’s what I’m thinking. The CON/CDP types may not want to pref JA/MT as much as they have the L-NP in the past.
Rodger, start a sentence with “ESJ thinks” and you are already so wRONg. 🙂
Edwina has its assigned talking points and spin and will stick to them.
ESJ full of it as usual.
A strong swing against the Libs will scare the f#ck out of the Libs.
Turnbullwill claim “Victory!” but his members in marginal seats will be redoubling there ‘seeking alternative eloyment’ efforts.
Those two seats plus Wilkie could be critical to the perception of stability around Labor.
ESJ:
With Shorten poised to win a sizable majority at the next election, I imagine a Labor/Greens coalition agreement is going to be non-existent regardless of how Batman goes.
Keep dreaming. BludgerTrack currently has Labor winning 90 seats to the Coalition’s 55. The Greens could win ten house seats and not impact Labor’s majority on those numbers.
Thanks for the quick responses to my question ..much appreciated.
I’m not really sure what point the Greens are making by preferencing three minor parties/independents before Labor ..but it sends a poor message to their supporters imo..
Well said CTari ; Turnball has actually made it about him. Reckons he is a true leader……oh the irony
Immaca – Kennealy winning would be a miracle.
It would be fun to see the Libs reaction.
Trump’s America Today!.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/15/america-extreme-poverty-un-special-rapporteur?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Collections+2017&utm_term=256755&subid=7131394&CMP=GT_US_collection
Marksj
I believe the Greens have a policy of preferencing smaller left wing parties before the majors. Most of those smaller parties are in turn directing preferences amongst themselves, then to Greens then to Lab.
Mark, it sends the message they want to send – Labor are crap, almost anything is better than Labor. But We have to admit even those loon minor parties and the Coalition are just a little bit worse.
The Greens are NOT Labor’s allies.
“a Labor/Greens coalition agreement”
Last place this concept surfaced was QLD wasn’t it? 🙂
Maybe ESJ can pop up there and find this Jabberwock??
Funny how it keeps coming up. May play to a certain section of the Lib rusted on RWNJobbie frother base but dont think it impacts beyond that. Its in the class of broken record stuff now.
What’s the average swing in by- elections? And when their is a change of govt on the cards it’s even more eg Bass 1975, Canberra 1976.
Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten and should be correctly seen as flinders 1982 – is we can’t win with this guy shorten and necessitating serious thought about a change of leader.
How many Liberals in “safe ” seats would be thinking a big swing against the conservatives in Bennelong can’t happen to them because Turnbull is leader.?
markjs:
I’d prefer they put Labor higher, but I don’t think it really matters. They’re all left-wing micro-parties who will be eliminated from the count well before the Greens candidate. The important thing is that Alexander, at number 9 on the HTV card, is well behind Keneally.
Greens voters are notorious for not following HTV cards, anyway. I imagine many will put Labor second – particularly given the circumstances of this particular by-election. I certainly would be if I was enrolled in Bennelong.
Sorry that should be Canberra 1996
Yes it is the case that KK is #5 on Greens HTV leaflet.
My observations from handing out KK HTV’s at Epping pre-poll over the last three weeks, is that support for both major candidates was pretty even if you consider indications given by voters as they entered and left the pre-poll station.
This could augur well for KK given pre-polls usually favour Libs and/or incumbents.
However, i dont sense, admittedly from a small sample of anecdotal observations, an overwhelming mood to dump JA. I think it will be KK 47.6% JA 53.4% although of course i hope im wrong.
Cheers
Info on YouGov takeover of Galaxy but no detail on polling methodology.
William, can I submit a suggestion for the title of the by-election live count article for this evening: “It’s Bennelong time coming”.
V.good caf
“Immaca – Kennealy winning would be a miracle.”
Actually, i think a win , while less likely, would not be a “miracle”. Chances are better than that.
“Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten”
Only by RWNJobbies desperately and with laughable incompetence trying to deflect attention from what a complete serial fwark up Truffles and the entire Federal Liberal party has become.
The value of spin on your recent comments is high enough for them to be getting just a tad boring
Edwina.
Hmm….is WayneKerrBot actually more entertaining??
On this election day some words of wisdom from Pappy Bush.
“It’s no exaggeration to say the undecideds could go one way or another.” —George Bush Sr., in 1988
ESJ:
Absolute nonsense. Even a 54-46 victory for Alexander would represent a landslide victory for Labor if that swing was replicated nationally. Alexander also has the benefit of incumbency, which is likely to blunt the usual by-election swing a bit.
Labor may have won this seat in the past, but since 2010 it has very much become a safe Liberal seat, not a marginal – Alexander even managed a swing to him during the 2016 election. This was always going to be an uphill battle for Labor.
Esj
if kk has a chance of winning Shorten has already won.
Interesting that PVO has this to say about a National MP……
https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/941775314186772480
Greens voters generally can read and write and have a reasonable understanding of the electoral process. There is no problem at all in their supporting left wing minors ahead of labor. indeed if for example they failed to preference the Science Party they would upset many of their stalwarts. When i hand out HTV (for Labor) nearly all the Green workers seem to be scientists of one kind or another.
Then there are several who seem to have a predominantly green ,message re planning so it would make no sense at all for a Greens Party NOT to preference such avowedly green candidates.
ESJ: This isn’t “most by-elections”, though. In this case, the most recent incumbent is recontesting, which is very unusual – a substantial part of the swing in the “usual by-election” can be attributed to the lose of the previous incumbent’s personal vote. Also, the “usual by-election” isn’t held when numbers in parliament are so finely balanced – a protest vote in a by-election by erstwhile government supporters doesn’t actually risk changing the government, and those voters know this.
Really, there aren’t many precedents to benchmark today’s results at all.
The facts are plain , by elections with double digit swings usually signal a change of government at this point in the political cycle.
I don’t think bill shorten should be prime minister but winning tonight would be pretty conclusive proof that will happen within 12 months. Conversely failure consigns him to the codabeen champions bill Hayden memorial category.
ESJ, given your hypothesis about by elections swinging to the opposition, how do you explain New England result just a few weeks ago?
This is a by-election with an incumbent. Early talking head thinking was small swing.
If it is a big swing then questions will be asked. Those in the anti-Turnbull right will be happy to answer.
Peter BrentVerified account @mumbletwits
5h5 hours ago
This (not country of birth) is best indicator of NESB migrant-ness. How well are these ~50% of electors being polled?
Bass was 14.3 swing and Canberra 16.1 swing.
Maude labor effectively ran dead in New England.
KK 47.6% JA 53.4% = 101%
This particular type of by-election from memory usually record a swing to the incumbent. KK may not win but a swing to the ALP has got to be another nail in Brian’s top hat.
Trump On The Verge Of Collapse As 72% Think He Did Something Wrong Or Illegal With Russia
A new AP poll reveals why Republicans are scrambling to shut down the Russia investigations, as 72% of Americans believe that Trump did something wrong or illegal with Russia, and 63% believe that the President has obstructed the investigation.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/12/15/trump-verge-collapse-72-wrong-illegal-russia.html
So, ESJ, you have set the bar at a minimum 9.72% swing to KK ( in an electorate which has never, bar 2007, elected anyone except Liberal) or else Shorten needs to look for another job?
apologies i meant 47.6% KK to 52.4% JA
The predicted big swing against Alexander really seems to have little to do with him personally. Under normal circumstances he could be expected to hold the seat easily.
However this is not a normal election and is essentially a referendum on Turnbull and the LNP.
Mueller set to confront White House lawyers in pivotal meeting ‘as soon as next week’
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is set to meet with President Donald Trump’s lawyers next week as the probe into possible Russian collusion continues.
According to CNN, sources think that the meeting is more significant than past meetings “because it comes after the completion of interviews of White House personnel requested by the special counsel and after all requested documents have been turned over.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/mueller-set-to-confront-white-house-lawyers-in-pivotal-meeting-as-soon-as-next-week/
It is probably a reasonable assumption to assume that about half the Cantonese speakers will be from Hong Kong, the other half Guanjo.
Those who speak Mandarin at home will all be from Northern China (although almost all the Cantonese speakers will also speak Mandarin)
Bit of shame Bennelong and Australia don’t have many many more women of colour as they seem to be the wisest voters, and white men, even educated white men are total idiots.
Edwina StJohn @ #279 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 11:45 am
Everything doesn’t have to be so black and white, if there is a 7% swing thats pretty significant, it would cause a lot of concern in LNP ranks.
Keep in mind, Labor has only held bennelong for one term since 1955 and no poll has had Labor in front.
If Labor wins it, there will be a fresh assault on Turnbull’s leadership, if it is close will be concern, if LNP win 55-45 then that will be enough to maintain the status-quo, which isnt good either.
A Labor/Green Coalition is just crap wheeled out by the Coalition.
Is interesting however as that it seems obvious to them it shows that a Lib/Nats/One Nation coalition is not far from their minds.
Such a thing is quite acceptable to a large majority of the current Coalition.
Female Fox News staffers threaten to ‘go public’ unless Rupert Murdoch stops lying: ‘I’m sick of this sh*t’
The billionaire owner of Fox News is facing outrage from female staff after dismissing the company’s sexual harassment scandal as “nonsense,” The Huffington Post reported Friday.
“Hey Rupert – stop with the lies or we’ll go public with the truth,” one former on-air talent warned. “All of it. Including about the talent and executives you still employ who have harassed us and don’t give a damn about workplace respect – only money”
“How much will it take before you actually start caring about your female employees?” she asked. “Is your 52 billion enough? Are we really going to clean house now?”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/female-fox-news-staffers-threaten-to-go-public-unless-rupert-murdoch-stops-lying-im-sick-of-this-sht/
Well I think a Shorten victory should bear out the accuracy of the national opinion polls.
ESJ @ 11:35
> “Anything short of a comfortable win by KK tonight is a massive fail for Shorten and should be correctly seen as flinders 1982 – is we can’t win with this guy shorten and necessitating serious thought about a change of leader.”
Shouldn’t Liberal supporters be hoping for Shorten staying on as leader ? 🙂
A popular new ALP leader (like Rudd in 2006) would significantly increase the chances of Liberals losing the next election.
You lot should be more confident in Bills glorious leadership. These things always come down to these type of show-downs.
There can only be one etc etc