Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

Comments Page 5 of 13
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  1. Trog Sorrenson (Block)
    Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 10:31 am
    Comment #195

    Sorry to hear about your dog’s misfortune although I am never sure it should not be that you are the dog’s person and personal slave.

    Good luck to both in any case. 😇

  4. I thought these days were behind us. And the attackers are so young – 19 and 20 years old!

    Two men who used a gay dating app to seek out and then violently assault men they believed were paedophiles have been jailed over the “protracted and vicious beatings”.

    James Joseph Katchan, 20, used app Grindr to seek out his victims, all whom were homosexual men, luring them to public places with the promise of sex.

    But when they arrived the victims were ambushed, with one man so badly beaten he was left with bleeding on the brain.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/grindr-thugs-jailed-over-violent-attacks-on-gay-men-ng-b88690695z

  7. Labor and asylum seekers..

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2017/12/16/false-labor-and-the-birth-manus/15133428005653

    Really, the ALP was exercising a crude calculus: that the harsh policy would win more votes in western Sydney than it would lose in inner-city seats. They might lose out to the Greens in Melbourne, but in Sydney a cordon of charisma made up of Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese would hold. So far, this calculation has been right. It goes back to Kim Beazley’s weakness in the Tampa election and, before that, to Paul Keating’s creation of mandatory detention. Inner-city voters might rage on social media about the inhumanity of it all, but are reluctant to punish its co-authors.

    ::::

    Just as the real Tanya Plibersek supports offshore detention whatever the “real” Tanya Plibersek does, so too do ALP votes, wherever they’re lodged. The bipartisanship on this issue makes them no different to Coalition voters. There’s something desperate, when you think about it, about the inner-city left blaming outer-suburb racists for the ALP’s bind, while voting in exactly the same way, decrying the supposedly intractable racism of Australians, while simultaneously endorsing it at the ballot box.

    That situation cannot continue. The humanitarian disaster on Manus is now unignorable and unsupportable. No person of conscience can vote for it, or a party responsible for it, and those who call themselves humanitarians have to vote on the basis of policies, not platitudes. The Labor Party needs to be penalised for its culpability, and metropolitan seats offer the prospect of more than a protest vote. Few things wound the pride of the ALP more than one of their seats turning Green, and losses in Sydney especially would prove once and for all that the politics of cruelty comes at a cost – not just to the innocent people tortured by them.

  9. Trog Sorrenson @ #194 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 10:31 am

    Anyone with a dog should be aware of the risk of corn cobs. Particularly the half corn cobs you get with takeaways.

    Yes, we had this one. Cost us $1000 in surgery. It’s worth repeating the warning about corncobs. Do not even put corncobs in your compost and then use that compost on your garden. The corncobs do not decompose and your dog will just dig them up and eat them!

  14. Apologies if already posted – I just realised I need to do cartoons today. My links are a bit old, and so it took a while to get these together.

    David Rowe’s take on the Fox / Disney merger

    Matt Golding has a good take

    David Pope on church and state responses to the Royal Commission
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

    Alan Moir think that the ALP have crashed at years end
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html

    Andrew Dyson inspired by the approach of Christmas
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/gallery-of-illustrations-by-fairfax-media-artist-andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv

    John Kudelka on CBAs problems

    From John Kudelka’s Calendar

    Ron Tandberg on John Alexander’s new place in the Southern Highlands

    Matt Golding on the by election

    Matt Golding on level crossing removal

    Matt Golding with Jacinda Ardern – must illustrate a story

  15. Thank God I hate corn cobs. I assume that my dogs would take the cue from me. However, I also hate paralysis ticks, yet one of my dogs managed to get 36 of them in his shaggy coat. We walked out of the vet $850 to the worse, with a very nude looking dog!
    Let’s hope that KK does us proud!

  17. [brigid glanville‏Verified account @brigidglanville · 24m24 minutes ago

    For full coverage and results of today’s By-Election tune in @abcnews 6pm kick off with @AntonyGreenABC, Labor’s Tony Burke and the Liberal’s Trent Zimmerman. #BennelongVotes]

  18. lizzie:

    Thank you for that reminder re Huawei. From 4 years ago:

    TREASURER Joe Hockey has ruled out the involvement of Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei in the National Broadband Network following fresh ASIO advice to the government.
    The move came just hours after Attorney-General George Brandis yesterday left the door open to Huawei working on the network.

    Mr Hockey was asked on Sky News last night whether he could “see any way that Huawei would be allowed to invest in our NBN project”.

    “No,” he replied.

    The move risks the ire of the Chinese government, which has strongly argued for the company to be able to tender for NBN contracts.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/huawei-ruled-out-of-nbn-involvement-on-advice-from-asio/news-story/6e8bb6c51a2fda571cdcb173b30c9dbf

  20. Basically a win for JA is only the start. The ‘consensus’ saying the Libs are actually pretty comfortable and 53-47 is agreed by both sides as the more likely position has basically made a tight Lib win (even a 51.9) a serious problem. If the consensus polling is overstating the Libs, then what does that say for the National Polling?

    A 52 will be nasty for Turnbull as it is still a big scary swing in a situation where incumbents have had swings to them previously, and Labor and it’s supporters have demonstrated a taste of what is going to be thrown at every Coalition marginal at the next general election. But he will at least be able to bullshit enough CPG to get his ‘Summer Reset’ pushed as the beginning of the end of Shorten 7.0.

    53 and above and the Libs will probably say Trumble on the campaign and his/there gutter campaigning makes a recovery possible.

    I know it’s probably just wishful thinking, but the effort and energy Labor has put into this really makes me feel KK has got this one though.

    On the issue of the youth vote, Bennelong is home to Macquarie Uni and so there is a lot of student accommodation around there. With a high Asian component. Obviously a lot of the foreign students won’t be voting, but the citizenship changes issue, Secondary Education cuts, and China bashing might have a pretty solid cut through in that demographic.

  21. P1

    Its not a good showing from Antony Green unless his computer messes up! (for general elections)

    He normally doesnt get a full set on the news for a byelection so his computer doesnt get shown but I hear it will be tonight. We dont have a meme for this occurrence!

  24. Sohar says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 10:34 am
    Now that Yougov has destroyed Australian polling, I guess Essential is now the only reliable poll.

    You would expect YouGov to try to learn from the methodologies of Galaxy and Newspoll (and take it back to the UK) rather than stuff them up.

    There must be a “Yougov” quote about the buyout that might explain their intentions. It would make for good content on a pseph site.

  25. Question @ #223 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 7:10 am

    Sohar says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 10:34 am
    Now that Yougov has destroyed Australian polling, I guess Essential is now the only reliable poll.

    You would expect YouGov to try to learn from the methodologies of Galaxy and Newspoll (and take it back to the UK) rather than stuff them up.

    There must be a “Yougov” quote about the buyout that might explain their intentions. It would make for good content on a pseph site.

    William mentioned it the other day but he didn’t seem to have much more than the take over had happened.

  26. Purely based on my own feelpinions, I still think Alexander will most likely scrape home. But even if he wins with a majority of 53 or so, that would be a pretty awful result for the Coalition. If a swing like that was replicated nationally, it would be a historic landslide victory for Labor.

    For Turnbull to be able to plausibly claim this as a win*, I reckon Alexander needs to win 55% of the TTP, at the very least.

    *And, yes, I do realise that Turnbull will likely claim a victory even if Alexander only wins by a single vote.

  29. BigD,

    Yes the only reason I know it happened is WB’s mention. I expect he will tell us more in one of his headers if the info comes to hand. Perhaps WB put up a link I didn’t have time to follow?

  30. Douglas and Milko
    Which street in Boronia Park do the rels live in?
    In the 80s I had a house in Kennedy St – looking at the boundaries that house is now 100 meters inside the electorate.

  32. Trog et al
    Thanks for the hint on the corn cobs potentially choking dogs. We will alter our composting arrangements and alert the dogs who own various members of our family.

  36. I like how both ALP and L-NP posters are positioning for a narrow loss. 🙂

    I have absolutely no idea, but I’m predicting KK by one vote because I am an optimist and that would be a delicious result. Anyone who gets it right is just a lucky guess.

  37. Question to Trog, Guytaur & Pegasus..

    ..is what I’m hearing about Green preferencing in Bennelong true? ..the Greens have apparently put Keneally 5th on their HTV ..as opposed to Keneally who has put the Greens candidate 2nd..

  39. Trog et al. Thanks for the hint on the corn cobs potentially choking dogs. We will alter our composting arrangements and alert the dogs who own various members of our family.

    Good work Boerwar.

  41. Responses from earlier

    Barney – right i did not click on the article. It was important.

    Zoomster those who remained with the Presbyterians who did NOT go to the Uniting Church were the fundamentalists (and some old stagers still committed but largely ostracised) and this was heightened by the evangelical zeal of Korean Presbyterians.

    Sorry forgot who re the Chinese in Bennelong. Yes there is a split between the Chinese but I think by and large those who are out here now come for economic reasons rather than political and mostly keep very strong links with their homes and families in China.

  43. I suspect Alexander may sneak over the line.

    I would then expect Turnbull to show up on the Sunday media and straight-faced declare that Bennelong was fought on local issues and the big swing to Labor has no Federal implications but Bill Shorten is the biggest loser.

    Journalists will then ask him about Sam Dastyari …

  46. Marksj

    Yes. Greens have preferenced a number of small left wing parties before Lab at 5. Said parties are likely to be eliminated from the count before the Greens. Dont expect much to come from it.

  49. The donkeys will re-elect JA – unless the Conservatives are smart enough to realise that their best chance of getting rid of Turnbull is to vote for KK.

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