A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.
Turnbull must be extremely jealous of Kim’s support at the ballot box:
@ides of march…
do you know if that figure for postals and prepolls is particularly high or low comparitively? Postals seem to always heavilly favour conservatives, not sure about prepolls
@Trog…….You HAVE stated your position hundreds of times.
No offence mate, but I will not debate you in any way shape or form.
You and P1 are as bad as Rex and his anti Shorten posts.
I will be happily surprised if KK gets up in Bennelong.
Meanwhile, This is also well worth a read:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/
It looks like the US has decided to effectively abandon its State Department and rely on the Defence Dept for all future political liaisons.
The Generals are now in charge.
Morning all.
Hats off to the volunteers in Bennelong today, esp those Labor members working hard to get KK elected.
I’ve heard from mum that KK has a very strong volunteer base today and that Labor members from across Sydney and beyond are in Bennelong today handing out HTVs and so on.
Good luck!!
sonar
The question about you sonar is – what do you actually know.
Probably not much, otherwise you wouldn’t have bothered to make the comment in the first place.
From memory of recent elections, pre-poll votes break pretty much the same as votes cast on polling day. On the other hand, postals seem to skew strongly conservative (again from memory by about 5% – anyone know?) and in the days following election night whittle away at any Labor lead. I’d subtract about 0.5% from the Labor 2PP at the end of tonight.
@Trog….fuck off and stop thinking you are smarter than anyone else. I don’t need your approval or non approval,or your NASTY insinuations on my education level. That’s a very LNP kind of thing to do.
Big A Adrian @ #152 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 5:31 am
Last election
Postal 8,663
Pre Poll 4,014
http://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-105.htm
Debate concluded.
Last time postals broke 55/25% to Alexander
No room for complacency in Australia either:
hmmm so basically kk will need to be winning by a landslide before postals are counted…
@ Trog…..You come across as an arrogant a’hole .Are you a member of the LNP.? They always resort to degrading and debasing people who don’t agree with them.
Here’s a link for Pbers tired of the energy debate.
George and Amal sent a note to passengers on flight
Because flying with twins isn’t always easy.
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/george-and-amal-sent-a-note-to-passengers-on-flight-20171214-h04ygk.html
sonar
Probably true.
Absolutely untrue.
So now you are saying you don’t agree with me. I thought you agreed.
As to degrading and debasing, I wasn’t the one who kicked off with the “many, many, many, many” shit.
sonar says:
Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 9:48 am
@ Trog…..You come across as an arrogant a’hole .Are you a member of the LNP.? They always resort to degrading and debasing people who don’t agree with them.
You get the amusing lack of consistency between calling someone an arrogant arsehole, and then saying that the LNP resort to degrading and debasing people who don’t agree with them, don’t you?
🙂
don @ #77 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 6:08 am
How many times do I have to say this? The choice is not between “renewables” and “coal”, it is between “renewables + coal” and “renewables + gas”.
From your own article …
…
Hey guys
I have NEVER questioned you’re intellect or education. I asked in polite terms to stop lecturing people on what they believe. But hey, if you have to resort to denegrating, debasing and and questioning anothers posters intellect that says more about you than me.
My origional post…”You have a right to an opinion and you have stated it here many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many times.
Please don’t take this offensively ( I don’t mean it to be ), but please, stop lecturing and give credit to people here for having the ability to decide for themselves on the information that is available, what their own position is, and the reasons they arrived at their particular policy position.
I am of the opinion we need to transition to 100% renewables and I am quite capable of reading and digesting information from many and varied sources, not just PB, on how that transition should occur.”……..
I never question YOUR education or qualifications.
Hey Lee
Looking at the last election percentages and the increase in numbers this time, the pre-polls and postals combined result in a figure 0.02% higher than the final result.
So they basically seem to cancel each other out in regards to any net effect.
This due to the increase in pre-polls being much larger than the postal one.
@Don……I take offence at someone who questions the standard of my education without having met or talked to me. Only an arrogant person makes that assumption. My original post wasn’t offensive, but the reply was.
sonar
My simple point is why stifle discussion on a complex issue of key importance.
My inner schadenfreude would love to see KK win just so Sky News’s talking heads will have to swallow their own bile.
Sky has become the Oz version of FoxNews and they NEED a dose of reality.
Here is to a JA win tonight
Dear Mr Trog and Mr Sonar,
I remember back in the olden days when Rosemour was picked on mercilessly by a couple of PBers….nothing good ever comes from calling each other names.
why not comment on the issue of key importance
Can’t remember a more consequential by election, other than Bass in Tasmania many moons ago.
It’s all about Turnbull.
There are dozens of “ ifs”. But whatever the result – including a KK win – I still believe Turnbull leads the government into the next election, whenever it is held. Yes, the Cabinet and backbench know an almost certain loss looms. But it will not be a landslide, basically because of Bill.
Any ticket involving Bishop or Morrison or Dutton or even Tony would ensure a wipeout, and include the next generation – people like Porter.
Meanwhile good public policy gets left behind and we all suffer .
Yay. On a happier note.
Just received a call from the vet. My labrador has recovered after collapsing 48 hrs ago with extreme neurological symptoms. Apparently, she ate something orange.
Now all I have to do is find $1000. There goes Xmas.
“Lee says:
Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 10:12 am
Here is to a JA win tonight”
Lee = Wayne?
TRog
‘Great article don. If the economics of batteries plus solar over gas peakers make sense in Minnesota, you can be sure they make sense in Australia as well.’
Significantly more.
Practically the whole of the Australian mainland gets much more sunshine than Minnesota.
**Any ticket involving Bishop or Morrison or Dutton or even Tony would ensure a wipeout**
This may be true but I am not sure those on the right and far right of the LNP believe it. Dont underestimate their self-belief/delusion.
Apparently Trump was reported to have rung Rupert directly to ensure Fox News wasn’t part of the Disney deal.
mundo
Good advice.
Trog Sorrenson @ #133 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 8:54 am
How strange that you never mention minimizing C02 emissions. Isn’t this what should be the first order issue?
Michael McCormack (National Party – Riverina) has been spotted in Bennelong today. Getting desperate if you bring a Nat to the city to hand out HTVs.
Trog
Orange? Some of Trump’s face cream?
Seriously, what could poison her like that?
So Yougov has taken over Newspoll and Galaxy. Given Yougov’s previous polling abilities, I guess the results from the other two polls are meaningless now.
Glad your puppy is okay Trog – no insurance?
No matter the cost – dogs are creatures that brighten your world no matter what else is happening.
St Cloud Minnesota has 97 sunny days and 102 part sunny days per year.
Adelaide has 88 and 136.
“Sohar says:
Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 10:27 am
So Yougov has taken over Newspoll and Galaxy. Given Yougov’s previous polling abilities, I guess the results from the other two polls are meaningless now.”
Hopefully YouGov will run Galaxy/Newspoll separately from its own somewhat strange poll. It probably depends on what Murdoch media wants them to produce.
Pendant
This is a common misconception. Electoral material is exempt from No Junk Mail stickers.
If you do not want to have such material put in your letter box you need to display an Australia Post Mail stickers, or Addressed Mail Only sticker, or equivalent.
Simon Katich @ #191 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 6:27 am
Fair point, but in SA it rapidly increases as you go north!
lizzie
I have no clue.
My first worry was snakebite, the place is crawling with tiger snakes, but we always supervise her closely when outside on warm days.
3 years ago – also at Xmas – she ate a corn cob, which became lodged in her gut. Cost $3000 for the surgery that time.
Anyone with a dog should be aware of the risk of corn cobs. Particularly the half corn cobs you get with takeaways.
Rough maths on new voters.
My understanding was that there were 190,000 new voter registrations for the SSM vote.
Averaging over 150 electorates gives 190,000/150 = 1267 new voters in Bennelong.
As these new voters would all be late teens/early twenties, say vote splits 60/40 to Labor, gives 760 Labor and 507 Others. Even if all Others end up with Libs after preferences, gives an extra 253 votes to Labor.
For 70/30 to Labor gives an extra 507 votes to Labor.
In extreme, 80/20 to Labor gives an extra 760 votes to Labor.
As Bennelong is an inner-urban seat, probably has more young people than average, so may increase the actual number of new voters.
Today will tell.
Now that Yougov has destroyed Australian polling, I guess Essential is now the only reliable poll.
News have prided themselves on publishing the most accurate and credible polls: I suspect we won’t see any drastic methodology changes, especially while David Briggs is still around.
**Fair point, but in SA it rapidly increases as you go north!**
Very true. But it rapidly decreases when you head up the hill and go through the tunnel.
jenauthor
I work on the theory that insurance companies always win. But I think, in the case of labradors, this might not always apply.
Obtaining pet insurance will be a project for the new year. A bit after the horse, or, in this case, labrador, has bolted.