Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  1. @BiGD………..”I can see him declaring a state of emergency and calling out the military! “………….

    I know you jest, but to be honest I fear that it is not out of the realm of possibility somewhere down the track with the people who run our current govt. They are batshit scary.

  2. BB: “If the government wins Bennelong today, even with a big swing against it, the pitch will be that there’s always a swing in by-elections.”

    I am sure that separate sets of lies have been prepared by the Liberals to use in the eventuality of a victory or a loss.

  3. Brandis: “There is a belief that we can win and that we will win, and that belief is partly a function of the Prime Minister’s self-belief, which is a great asset to the government.” He says Turnbull has “grown in stature” and is “looking more and more like John Howard every day”.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-am-what-i-am-the-non-reinvention-of-george-brandis-20171213-h03so8.html

    Thank you Lizzie for todays invitation to “Nightmare in Depression Street” starring together again for the first time Big George Brandis and repeating his noir version of James Cagney’s “Top of the World, Ma” in “White Heat” the Prince of Point Piper, majestic in this role, Malcolm F. Turnbull.

    5 Stars. Not to be missed. Comedy of the year. ✨✨✨✨✨

  4. As others have mentioned, the non-attenders may decide this election. If lots of JA voters don’t have the energy to turn up to the polls, KK may do very well indeed.

  5. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP · 24m24 minutes ago

    I’ve just been forced to endure the dumbest text exchange for hours with a National parliamentarian who opposes quotas for women because it’s not “merit” based, but says Nationals need a quota for the ministry because otherwise they won’t get their fair share promoted HELP!!!

  6. fairfax cartoons.

    SMH David Pope: Nobody wants to read it.

    SMH Matt Golding: Yesterday, no idea what it is about.

    SMH Andrew Dyson: Following the star to china.

    SMH Simon Letch from yesterday

    SMH Michael Leunig: Being Leunig, if you can work it out let me know.

    SMH Ron Tanburg: US moore riding his horse.

    SMH Mat davidson: Us I suspect moore and wife with the votes flying away

    SMH Alan Moir: Turnbull being surprised he has made the year out.

  8. George Brandis quoted in the Age article linked above “He says Turnbull has “grown in stature” and is “looking more and more like John Howard every day”.

    Can’t see how he could possibly believe that. Turnbull has been the incredible shrinking man, looking more like a sort of hybrid Tony Abbott – Billy McMahon every day.

  10. John Alexander has not appeared as yet for the traditional early morning ‘I will win because’ statement. It is a long way from the Southern Highlands to Bennelong!

  12. “SMH Michael Leunig: Being Leunig, if you can work it out let me know.”

    Nothing too esoteric – the wish list of someone who longs for peace of mind

  13. Steve777 @ #108 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 4:20 am

    George Brandis quoted in the Age article linked above “He says Turnbull has “grown in stature” and is “looking more and more like John Howard every day”.

    Can’t see how he could possibly believe that. Turnbull has been the incredible shrinking man, looking more like a sort of hybrid Tony Abbott – Billy McMahon every day.

    But Steve that’s exactly what George is saying, to look like Howard, Turnbull would need to reduce his size which is reverse growth, which is shrinkage! 🙂

  17. Also Alan Moir

    A few others to add to cartoon corner – apologies if already posted
    And Glen LeLievre

    And anther from Glen – Say cheez

    David Rowe take on the Disney-Fox deal

    John Shakespeare – no where to hide

  23. Will the many new voters who enroled for the SSM survey have an influence in todays vote ?
    Were there many in Bennelong?
    Does the elec commission give that data out.?

    I know a lot of people enrolled so they could vote yes.

  24. don

    https://electrek.co/2017/12/13/solar-batteries-to-take-10gw-natural-gas/

    Solar power and energy storage (batteries) have fallen in price enough that they’re now competing with the cost of natural gas peaker plants in specific markets. New analysis is suggesting 10GW of natural gas peaker plants are at risk through 2027 in the USA specifically.

    Other, more aggressive suggestions don’t see a place for gas peaker plants after 2020 in the USA. It seems the age of the renewable energy plus energy storage power plant is upon us.

    Great article don. If the economics of batteries plus solar over gas peakers make sense in Minnesota, you can be sure they make sense in Australia as well.

  25. Sonar

    I believe about 100,000 people added themselves to the Commonwealth role for the SSM. However that was across Australia.

    Not sure how many where in Bennelong.

  27. Pressure mounting on George Brandis to go to London, apparently Malcolm wants him gone. But Georgie has a second wind, and is resisting. We will find out next week.

  29. One of the four 420MW units at the Liddell coal generator in New South Wales will be out of action for most of the summer because of broken turbine blades – making supply increasingly tight in the state, and making a mockery of the Coalition’s push to keep the plant open longer in the name of “reliability”.

    The number 2 unit at Liddell has not operated since early August. An AGL spokesman said that it may not be back in service until mid February, meaning that it will largely miss the summer heatwave conditions that will push demand up to near record levels.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/reliable-baseload-liddell-unit-broken-and-out-for-most-of-summer-10417/

  30. BB: “If the government wins Bennelong today, even with a big swing against it, the pitch will be that there’s always a swing in by-elections.”

    That might be good enough to fool the public but it won’t wash with their own party if the swing is really big. If Alexander just scrapes back in it could easily mean the end of Turnbull.

  33. Those PBers and Labor supporters who find the energy debate boring need to pull their fingers out and get across the issues, otherwise we’ll end up with another NBN style economic and technical fuckup in the energy transition.
    There are many aspects of energy policy where the Coalition are vulnerable. These are low hanging fruit politically, but if you don’t understand the issues you can’t prosecute the case.
    The key issue is that renewables and storage will deliver cheaper power, and renewable power will continue to get cheaper. Much cheaper.
    Even if the general populace regards AGW as a third order issue, electricity prices and security are of the first order in the minds of voters.

  34. I believe about 100,000 people added themselves to the Commonwealth role for the SSM. However that was across Australia.

    Assuming that Bennelong was close to average in this regard, that would mean about 100,000/150 = 600-700 approx new registrations in Bennelong. If we assume that the new voters skewed 60-40 towards Labor* (directly or via preferences), that would mean an extra 60-70 votes to KK. In a very tight contest, it could make a huge difference.

    * like 73.6% of statistics, made up on the spot

  35. Trog Sorrenson @ #133 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 4:54 am

    Those PBers and Labor supporters who find the energy debate boring need to pull their fingers out and get across the issues, otherwise we’ll end up with another NBN style economic and technical fuckup in the energy transition.

    I would suggest we already have reached this point as a result of a lack of Government policy!

  36. Barney

    I would suggest we already have reached this point as a result of a lack of Government policy!

    Very true, but we can only start influencing policy from today.

  38. As a Labor man I feel a sense of dread about Batman.

    Why? The more seats won by the Greens, the better Labor policy becomes. There is no way that Qld Labor would have backflipped on the Adani coal mine without the Greens making it a big issue that voters paid attention to and understood.

  41. Report from Meadowbank TAFE booth.

    We successfully set up at the best position, 6 metres from the polling booth, before the Libs knew what was going on. (Our booth coordinator had checked with the AEC officer, earlier in the morning).
    Five Labor volunteers were rostered for the morning shift but ten showed up! Two from Cronulla branch and one from Malabar branch as well as the Reid volunteers. Unions NSW were there with a couple of “Send Malcolm a Message” volunteers. All in all, we are outnumbering the Libs. The booth is one of the smaller ones with about 1500 voters and the Libs won it last time with 53% of 2PP. I’m confident that we can win this booth which is one of 35 in the electorate. I’m basing this on a very well coordinated grassroots campaign and the fact that volunteers have been streaming into Bennelong from all over the state as well interstate!

  43. @ Trog………….”Those PBers and Labor supporters who find the energy debate boring need to pull their fingers out and get across the issues, .”……………….

    You have a right to an opinion and you have stated it here many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many,many times.

    Please don’t take this offensively ( I don’t mean it to be ), but please, stop lecturing and give credit to people here for having the ability to decide for themselves on the information that is available, what their own position is, and the reasons they arrived at their particular policy position.

    I am of the opinion we need to transition to 100% renewables and I am quite capable of reading and digesting information from many and varied sources, not just PB, on how that transition should occur.

  45. sprocket_ @ #126 Saturday, December 16th, 2017 – 8:47 am

    Pressure mounting on George Brandis to go to London, apparently Malcolm wants him gone. But Georgie has a second wind, and is resisting. We will find out next week.

    And with Brandis doing some serious arse licking with the ‘Turnbull turning into Howard’ rhubarb.

    Hang on; Howard got chucked out of Bennelong, so as for Turnbull turning into the rodent, today’s as good a day as any.

  46. sonar
    When you say my position is an “opinion” stated many times, you are simply dumping a lot of facts and policy issues into one catchall. It’s like saying that scientists have an “opinion” that climate change is real and that science deniers have a right to an “opinion” that it’s all a Chinese hoax, or a hoax by scientists to amass research funds.

    I am of the opinion we need to transition to 100% renewables and I am quite capable of reading and digesting information from many and varied sources, not just PB, on how that transition should occur.

    Equivalent to saying “I want KK to win in Bennelong” but not brooking any further discussion on the issue, because we’ve all heard it before.

  47. It’s fascinating how Turnbull is force to turn on the moderates in his party (e.g. Georgie) to satisfy the righties because the moderates have nowhere else to go. There is a lesson in that.

  50. Gladesville Public Democracy Suasage menu

    “Rental Income” – bacon and egg roll

    “Section 44” dual suasage and onion sandwich

    “Dastyari (Last) Drinks”- tea/water/soft drink

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