Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong

Another poll points to a cliffhanger in the make-or-break Bennelong by-election.

A Galaxy poll for the Daily Telegraph has John Alexander clinging on to a 51-49 lead ahead of tomorrow’s Bennelong by-election, after a poll at the beginning of the campaign had it at 50-50. On the primary vote, Alexander is down two to 40% and Kristina Keneally is down one to 38%, with the Greens on 8%, Australian Conservatives on 7% and Christian Democratic Party on 3%. The sample is only 524, but the result is in line with a similar poll conducted by the same company but badged as Newspoll for The Australian earlier in the week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

616 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Liberal in Bennelong”

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  1. The Tories still believe the public are on their side and they dont seem to get that voters have deserted the right wingers shortly after Abbott was elected. Yet they still bang on about how its what the public wants.They are seriously deluded and thats why the polls are not going to change for the Libs until theyre booted out.

  2. Ides of March says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 3:18 pm
    lol. A lady kept interrupting Corey Bernardi telling him she wouldnt vote for ‘religious nutmegs’

    Has Bernardi been out on the hustings?

  3. Jeremy Gans‏ @jeremy_gans
    17m17 minutes ago
    But there is a problem for Danby, Dreyfus and (perhaps) Leeser: s116(2) of German’s Basic Law (its constitution) provides a pathway to restore citizenship of such people ‘and their descendants’.

    :large

  5. Fess

    That appears to be an ‘on application’ argument. Its not by descent. You have to apply for it. Ergo you may not be in trouble.

  7. Ides of March says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 3:30 pm
    Briefly

    Bernardi is running a candidate in the by-election.

    Ys, but has he been present himself?

  8. I’m with ESJ on the meaning of the outcome tonight.
    Politics is about winning. A moral victory, the voters “sending a message to Turnbull”, exceeding expectations and all that kind of stuff are feel-good sentiments but the only result that will really shock the Liberals to their core will be them losing. They can spin away a narrow victory with a big swing but a loss of any kind would be magnitudes of horrible worse for them than a one vote win on count back.

  9. ESJ
    > “Presumably if Turnbull goes down tonight the liberals wil
    End up adopting a Rudd 2013type reform for the same reason.”

    The leadership rules cannot prevent challenges.

    If a challenger has the numbers then he or she can simply walk into the leader’s office and say that the leader doesn’t have the confidence of caucus anymore & the leader should either resign or call a leadership ballot. If the leader refuses then they’ll be faced with resignations from the (shadow) ministry and public calls from them to go. Most leaders will find it impossible to resist the pressure.

    I think the NSW ALP had Rudd 2013 type rules in place before the 2015 election, but that couldn’t prevent John Robertson from losing the leadership when he lost the confidence of the caucus.

  10. Question.

    Imagine if Gillard had a Cayman Account?

    Drawn and quartered, head on a pike, quick smart.

    No ifs, no buts.

    Jeez, it must piss them all off, no end, to see Julia getting accolades for a Royal Commission, that all those weak-kneed, pedo-protecting, former PMs were so afraid of doing.

    Men are so stupid, sometimes.

  12. Actually Bennelong was quite well represented in the Caymans particularly in the Panama papers but also the Paradise papers. Idiot white men, actually you know who was over represented … shhhhhh

  15. Rather than just copy/pasting perhaps Confessions can actually say why she posted the German Basic Law excerpt.

    As it stands it is cryptic, and communicates only that Confessions can (a) read twitter, and (b) copy/paste to PB blog.

    Perhaps she is just encouraging PBers to now look up the ancestry of the three named politicians on Google for themselves to see just how these pollies or their parents or their grandparents fit into the Law quoted.

    I would be surprised if even one PBer could quote the ancestry of those three without research, given that they have not at all been at the forefront of the (citizenship) names named.

  16. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/asylum-seekers-win-right-to-pursue-compensation-in-png/9265078

    Asylum seekers now have the right to pursue a compensation claim against the PNG Government for illegally detaining them on Manus Island, after a ruling from the country’s Supreme Court.

    The court found in April 2016 that asylum seekers were illegally detained on Manus Island.

    It’s now dismissed an attempt by the PNG Government to stop them making a compensation claim for that and seeking enforcement of their constitutional rights.

  19. The Trump administration is prohibiting officials at the nation’s top public health agency from using a list of seven words or phrases — including “fetus” and “transgender” — in any official documents being prepared for next year’s budget.

    Policy analysts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta were told of the list of forbidden words at a meeting Thursday with senior CDC officials who oversee the budget, according to an analyst who took part in the 90-minute briefing. The forbidden words are “vulnerable,” “entitlement,” “diversity,” “transgender,” “fetus,” “evidence-based” and “science-based.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/cdc-gets-list-of-forbidden-words-fetus-transgender-diversity/2017/12/15/f503837a-e1cf-11e7-89e8-edec16379010_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_cdc-725pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.18651dc378eb

    Proving yet again that in America, you can be armed. Just not with the facts.

  21. Do all these Chinese voters in Bennelong support the Chinese government? Aren’t they out here because they don’t like the Chinese system? Turnbull’s attacks are on the Chinese system rather than the Chinese race. Are Chinese people in Bennelong upset by Turnbull’s targetting Chinese government influence?

  24. Ides of March says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 3:40 pm
    Briefly

    Yes, hes in Bennelong today with his candidate.

    Thanks. It will be interesting to see how they go, and whether their votes come at the expense of the CDP or the Liberals or both.

  25. Hola Bludgers from my couch! I never made it to the by-election because I was struck down overnight with one of my semi-regular allergic reactions to something I ate yesterday and so got up this morning only to be dizzy, nauseous and tired. I’ve only just woken up fully.

    I see Dio is trying to spin a near death experience ‘win’ by Alexander as some sort of glorious triumph for Dear Leader Turnbull. Lol.

  26. PeeBee,

    The self-appointed-know-it-all’s I have in mind are rarely right, and serve only to impede good conversation with dubious opinion stated as fact 🙂

  28. Heard Antony Green on ABC RN news this afternoon wtte Bennelong will be won by the candidate who gains the higher primary vote because preference flows (80%) from B’s Cons to Alexander and Greens to KK will essentially cancel each other out.

  31. Ides of March says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 3:50 pm
    Briefly

    I think hes already bitten a big chunk out of the CDP.

    It seems so, looking at the polls. They need much more than that to get off the ground.

  32. C@tmomma

    At least you’re honest.

    Hope you’re feeling better; and despite your affliction, Labor wins Bennelong.

    Take it easy, though. I know you’ve put in a grand effort.

  35. I don’t think this result will have any real effect on either leader.

    The L-NP don’t have any talent.

    The ALP went through Turnbull’s honeymoon, which was far worse than what a conservative seat could dish up, without even a whisper.

    A loss would make it very difficult for the L-NP to gather any momentum, and much harder for them to do the one-rule-for-you and another-rule-for-us on s44. I’m not sure that is such a smart move anyway.

  37. The self-appointed-know-it-all’s I have in mind are rarely right, and serve only to impede good conversation with dubious opinion stated as fact

    Exactly, and they usually become abusive and dismissive if challenged.

  40. on the whole as a white man, I’m very comfortable to point out to us how ridiculously privileged and stupid we are as a group, if indeed white women share almost the same level of stupidity, privilege and unearned sense of entitlement that we as a group do, then I’ll leave that to a white woman to go into.

    WWP

    No need to wait for a white woman to do it. Just think Bronwyn Bishop, Julie Bishop, Michaelia Cash, Sophie Mirabella, Kelly O’Dwyer, Sussan Ley, Gina Rinehart, Miranda Divine, Peta Credlin, Michele Bachman, just for starters and tell me if that lot don’t fit your description of “stupidity, privilege and unearned sense of entitlement”.

    And then for good measure you can throw in the millions of women who will vote for the LNP at the next election and who voted for Trump in the USA and May in the UK. The evidence is all around you and you don’t have to look very hard to find it.

  41. ‘fess,
    Not entirely better yet but I’m used to it. So I start by having Vegemite toast and some salad, then a light meal tonight.

    It all started with my Hyperemesis Gravidarum throughout my first pregnancy. I was the original skinny baby momma, weighing less by the end of the pregnancy than when I started! I could only keep down chicken and rice and toast by the end. Everything else I threw up!

  42. briefly, it’s not that bad, I am in a quasi dream-like state as if dizzy with love!

    Anyhoo, I just didn’t want to be the ‘human interest’ story at the poll today if I fainted. =)

  43. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 4:07 pm
    briefly, it’s not that bad, I am in a quasi dream-like state as if dizzy with love!

    lol…will probably wear off then 🙂

  47. Thanks kezza2. It’s a predictable script I’m running to. ^_^

    Btw, hope you and yours are going well after your recent ‘downsides’.

  49. Turnbull reported earlier today saying that everyone should read the final report of the royal commission.

    It’s 17 volumes.

    Typical turkey talk.

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