ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

Comments Page 6 of 25
1 … 5 6 7 … 25

  1. On The Drum, Bongiorno suggested that the RC Church must, must, consider doing away with the celibacy rule.
    Obviously it’s not the only reason for abuse, but has to be considered a contributing factor in some cases.

  3. It’s not a new thing to note the disenchantment among voters around the world.

    But Australian politicians might care to look at a report released on Thursday by the World Economic Forum that found Australia is at the bottom of a list of 15 countries that ranks people’s levels of trust in their governments.

    At the top place were Switzerland and Indonesia where 82 per cent of people trust their governments.

    Last came Australia where only 43 per cent of people said they trust the government.

    Truth is an essential part of trust.

    If the behaviour by all participants in the Bennelong byelection is anything to go by, it’s no wonder trust is at such a low.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/truth-the-first-casualty-in-the-bennelong-byelection-20171214-h04fkk.html

  4. lizzie @ #250 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 6:32 pm

    On The Drum, Bongiorno suggested that the RC Church must, must, consider doing away with the celibacy rule.
    Obviously it’s not the only reason for abuse, but has to be considered a contributing factor in some cases.

    The celibacy rule is basically inhumane extremism. How that still remains today is beyond ridiculous.

  5. lizzie @ #250 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 2:32 pm

    On The Drum, Bongiorno suggested that the RC Church must, must, consider doing away with the celibacy rule.
    Obviously it’s not the only reason for abuse, but has to be considered a contributing factor in some cases.

    I’ve heard experts discussing the dangers of celibacy one of which is the resultant emotional and sexual immaturity.

  8. Alan Jones will be John Alexander’s neighbour in the Southern Highlands. What joy!

    Liberal John Alexander failed to declare thousands of dollars in rental income from his $4.8 million, eight-bedroom luxury property in the NSW Southern Highlands.

    Mr Alexander, the Turnbull government’s candidate in the crucial Bennelong byelection this Saturday, bought the sprawling 100 acre property in May after inspecting it with his soon to be neighbour, radio broadcaster Alan Jones.

    In keeping with Parliament’s rules, he declared the purchase on June 20, 2017 and at the time, told Domain he would use the Moss Vale property for “short-term holiday rental and horse agistment purposes only”.

    However, the former tennis professional and media commentator has never declared a dollar of income from renting out the home, despite Parliament’s register of member’s interests specifically requiring members of parliament to declare “any other substantial sources of income”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/john-alexander-has-not-declared-rental-income-from-his-1400-per-day-country-estate-20171214-h04lnv.html

  9. Barney

    I’ve heard experts discussing the dangers of celibacy one of which is the resultant emotional and sexual immaturity.

    Imagine one of these counselling married couples. 🙁

    But I wonder which comes first – the immaturity or the decision to retreat into celibacy.

  11. I wouldn’t get too excited about the contribution of celibacy to child sexual assault, otherwise there wouldn’t be intrafamilial child sexual assault.
    Having worked in this territory for a very long time, take it from me, child sexual abuse is multifactorial., i.e., there’s not just one type of child predator.

  12. Ewart Dave ‏ @davidbewart · Dec 12
    Businessman Huang Xianmo is a paid up member of the Liberal Party.

    Left of Labor‏ @Left_of_Labor · Dec 12
    @billshortenmp points out to the Prime Minister that his Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop some how ended up with a $500,000 donation from the same Chinese Businessman that they are allegedly are saying is a National Security issue.

    No media reporting on that… ?

  16. While everyone is slagging off at the Churches, check out the linked statement from Archbishop Aspinall, then the head of the Anglican Church in Australia, commending the establishment of the commission in 2012, which he had been calling for for 10years prior, first with Howard

    https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://resources.news.com.au/files/2012/11/16/1226518/382576-aus-news-file-statement-phillip-aspinall.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwj2wuKLgonYAhVN82MKHdjYBjkQFgg-MAc&usg=AOvVaw04T52kKdeweIud-HerRjvT

    Many church leaders actually called for such a commission, because they knew that any internal inquiry they instituted themselves would be called I to question as biased. They knew they would lose some skin but still pursued it.

  17. lizzie
    When we ran the first treatment program for intrafamilial child sexual abuse in Victoria, one of my tasks was to assess the men and to run a group for those we’d accept into treatment, amongst other things.
    As you would probably expect, the psychopathology could be mild to severe, fairly simple to complex, but lack of access to willing adult female partners wasn’t a factor.

  18. Don’t think I’ve heard Gillard mentioned once on the ABC (over numerous reports) as the instigator of the RC into child abuse.

  20. Tim Costello‏Verified account @TimCostello · 28m28 minutes ago

    We can do better @TurnbullMalcolm. Why tell @QandA ‘we have
    one of the most generous humanitarian programs in the world’ when in reality
    Australia ranks 42nd in the world for the number of #refugees we resettle
    relative to national GDP #evacuatemanus #manus

    Also: Has Turnbull claimed credit for the Royal Commission yet?

    duncan storrar‏ @indica2007 · 4h4 hours ago

    Was at royal comission @TurnbullMalcolm got his photos and left. I’ll give 1 thing to @billshortenmp one of last to leave he spoke to us all gave us real respect #auspol

  21. Player One @ #256 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 3:46 pm

    Player One @ #248 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 6:22 pm

    Did you read the PDF?

    I’ll take your lack of a response as a ‘no’, shall I?

    You can probably take the lack of response as having things to do other than sitting around on Poll Bludger all afternoon.

    I did write up a response which seems to have been eaten by the gerbils, so I’ll give it another go.

    It appears that AGL have spent too much time with Brian Trumble and consequently his bad habit of presenting thought bubbles as detailed plans has rubbed off on them.

    Aside from the ~600 MW of wind energy which has been committed, everything else in the glossy brochure is subject to some sort of qualifier. For example, the brochure mentions a 250 MW peaker to for “Newcastle” to be operating in 2019. AGL will really need to get moving if they want it up and running by then, and they’ll need to start by finalising a location.

    They’ll probably also want to talk to Synergy in WA about the perils of extending the life of ageing coal power plans. They’ve just written off $300m+ due to a botched refurbishment.

  23. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 6:58 pm

    Julie Bishop has questions to answer, at least as many as Sam Dastyari, but no one in the media is asking them.

    Mostly about hats, gloves and earrings….

  24. @Player One

    Actually I did read the entire PDF before I made the post to you.

    Have you checked pages 5/6 of the PDF?

    It actually says the renewables are slightly ahead of Gas in terms of being delivered (look at the graphs on page 5/6).

    Stage 1 for Renewables has 300w for NSW oftake approved.

    And the other ones are being delivered.

    Stage 2/3 “Offtake approved” for renewables.

  27. monica @ #260 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 2:54 pm

    I wouldn’t get too excited about the contribution of celibacy to child sexual assault, otherwise there wouldn’t be intrafamilial child sexual assault.
    Having worked in this territory for a very long time, take it from me, child sexual abuse is multifactorial., i.e., there’s not just one type of child predator.

    Yeah, they weren’t discussing specifically in relation to paedophilia, it was more in relation to the general concept of celibacy and the resultant issues.

  28. lizzie

    Why tell @QandA ‘we have
    one of the most generous humanitarian programs in the world’ when in reality

    Bloody @#$#! Howard rolled out that tripe all the time as he merrily blew on the dog whistle. Surprise surprise he and no doubt Lord Disappointment used a bit of “tricky” by using the post WWII influx.

  30. On a more political note, D minus if you don’t mind, I am finding it gobsmacking that Turnbull has gone so Trumpian in his lying, and even more smacked in the gob that he is never, ever challenged by the MSM. I hate to say it, but the ABC, with some outstanding exceptions, has been well and truly stymied.

  31. grimace @ #270 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 7:10 pm

    You can probably take the lack of response as having things to do other than sitting around on Poll Bludger all afternoon.

    That particular comment was directed at zoidlord, not you – it is clear that neither z nor don had actually read the document before they jumped in to sling their mud, and ended up getting it all over themselves.

    But since you apparently have read the document, you deserve a response …

    It appears that AGL have spent too much time with Brian Trumble and consequently his bad habit of presenting thought bubbles as detailed plans has rubbed off on them.

    That may or may not be true. It doesn’t stop the usual solar enthusiasts here from quoting – nay, trumpeting – their pronouncements as an expert source.

    Aside from the ~600 MW of wind energy which has been committed, everything else in the glossy brochure is subject to some sort of qualifier. For example, the brochure mentions a 250 MW peaker to for “Newcastle” to be operating in 2019.

    The qualifier is whether it is to be built in Newcastle or elsewhere. See the footnote.

    AGL will really need to get moving if they want it up and running by then, and they’ll need to start by finalising a location.

    Two years is plenty of time to build a gas generator if the site is suitable (I presume Newcastle is). It could probably be done faster than that if necessary.

    They’ll probably also want to talk to Synergy in WA about the perils of extending the life of ageing coal power plans. They’ve just written off $300m+ due to a botched refurbishment.

    I presume that’s why they plan to install a battery at Liddel – an expensive way to give it some much-needed reliability until they can turn it off for good. But I suppose the battery will be useful afterwards anyway.

  32. Barney
    What I was wanting to convey was the complexity of the issue, in relation to child sexual abuse. For instance, there are some people, both male and female, who have just no interest in sex with anyone at all.

  34. zoidlord @ #273 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    Actually I did read the entire PDF before I made the post to you.

    Good. However, your other comments are not really relevant to the point, which was that AGL is proposing to build new gas generation.

    Try just reading the summary on the first page:

    Newcastle gas peaker – 250 MW
    NSW gas peaker – 500 MW

  36. monica @ #281 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 3:29 pm

    Barney
    What I was wanting to convey was the complexity of the issue, in relation to child sexual abuse. For instance, there are some people, both male and female, who have just no interest in sex with anyone at all.

    Yeah, the discussion was much broader and focused largely on there ability to deal with day to day issues of their congregations.

  37. @Player One:

    You are very selective

    You need to realise your previous attacks on Renewables, you should also read page 1 summary, 1600MW of Renewables.

    The investment of gas is small fry compared with renewable.

    And majority of Gas will not be operational until 2020 or later. (500MW).

  40. The Turnbull government will win the Bennelong by election by with a big swing to them and get back them one seat majority in HOR and there will be an LNP government for the next 20 year and turnbull will be the best PM ever

  41. zoidlord @ #286 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 7:35 pm

    @Player One:

    You are very selective

    You need to realise your previous attacks on Renewables, you should also read page 1 summary, 1600MW of Renewables.

    The investment of gas is small fry compared with renewable.

    Jeez, Zoidlord. Strawman much? This has nothing to do with the point I was making in my original post, which was essentially twofold:

    1. It is not true to claim (as has been claimed here repeatedly) that no new gas generation will ever be built, because renewables can be built “faster and cheaper”. AGL is building some.

    2. It is not true to claim (as has been claimed here repeatedly) that “solar + batteries” are already cheaper than coal or gas. AGL says batteries are still too expensive, and will be for quite a few years yet (they say five).

    Please try and stick to the point, and don’t just go off on a tangent.

  42. Player One @ #283 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 4:31 pm

    zoidlord @ #273 Thursday, December 14th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    Actually I did read the entire PDF before I made the post to you.

    Good. However, your other comments are not really relevant to the point, which was that AGL is proposing to build new gas generation.

    Try just reading the summary on the first page:

    Newcastle gas peaker – 250 MW
    NSW gas peaker – 500 MW

    Both peakers are proposed. 2 years to build & commission one, given there is no confirmed location yet, is getting into fantasy. Those sorts of time frames are a written invitation to the fuckup fairy, inviting it to come and wreak havock.

    The upgrade is for Bayswater, not for Liddel. I hope the taxpayer is not somehow on the hook for that, or the risks associated with it.

  43. @Player One

    Your the strawman on this, you exclude batteries as part of the renewable mix, because of the expensiveness of it.

    Of course AGL Going go say this business 101.

    But the fact remains your egotistical approach is that you think Gas should play a bigger role than Renewables.

    That is why you focus on Gas and Batteries.

    Not the entire project.

    And that is what you have been doing from the start, promoting Gas over all other technologies, regardless of price or affordability of private companies to switch from fossil fuels to renewables.

  44. Sorry, but anyone who is surprised by what a low lying scumbag Trumble is simply never paid attention to the man before. He has always been a turd.

  45. So where are the cancelled tax cuts in NZ going ? Looks like towards a good cause. Reports of screams coming from the IPA continue to trickle in .

    For a package in which there were really no surprises, the Labour-led Government’s first budget exercise has had a stunning impact.

    It was summed up in one headline: Labour’s package expected to halve child poverty.

    The prospect of one package nearly halving the number of kids in low-income households (using the standard OECD income measure) when it is fully implemented is the sort of outcome that may assuage resentment of those whose tax cuts have been cancelled to fund it.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11959462

  49. Well, just watched 7.30, and I have to say what a fine example of television-at-its-best it was.

    I always kinda liked “PK” when he was a sports reporter on ABC Breakfast, but he has come into his own as a mainstream telejournalist and interviewer. His time with Julia Gillard was perfect television. How I miss that lady. And PK’s gravitas and sheer respect was exactly appropriate.

    The panel interview was interesting and informative, thought-provoking and detail-rich.

    With the red-headed harpy,Sales, absent, 7.30 tonight had real class.

    I shudder to think what an interview with ex-PMJG would have been like if Leigh had been in the chair.

    The Royal Commission was born out of Sue Smith’s forensic examination of the Newcastle Church/pedophile scene on Lateline (for which, for what it’s worth, she won a Walkley). From there a giant edifice was built and has at last borne fruit.

    Job well done, ABC.

  50. @workmanalice
    ·
    34m
    Social services minister Christian Porter didn’t go to the final hearing of the child sexual abuse #RoyalCommission. He went to the cricket with John Howard instead.

Comments Page 6 of 25
1 … 5 6 7 … 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *