Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

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  1. Presser now

    SabraLane: And @samdastyari is not taking questions: after much reflection best service I can render to ALP is not return to the Senate in 2018.

  2. guytaur @ #178 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 10:26 am

    KJ

    Turnbull said it publicly on National Television.

    He said it was another source.

    Quite so.

    How would his statement be verified ? I am no looking for an argument. I simply tend not to place Mr Turnbull on the side of “truth and justice for all” side of any equation. I have been known to be wrong on beaucoup occasions.

    ☮✌☕

  4. political_alert: Dastyari: I leave knowing that I’ve always honoured my parliamentary oath… I’ve always acted with the utmost integrity and I remain a loyal, patriotic Australian.

  8. So my initial thinking that the overarching issue was that of undue influence in our body politic which is being played out right now insofar as the Russia/China/Israel/Trump nexus goes.
    It was a shot across the bow which just happens to coincide with the Bennelong by election. And of course Turnbull overreached in this regard. But it does appear that Dastyari is definitely a compromised person.
    Shame really. He was quite personable.

  9. Lyndal Curtis‏Verified account @lyndalcurtis · 2m2 minutes ago

    (Sam Dastyari’s resignation creates a casual vacancy. the ALP gets to choose his replacement which is then okayed by the State’s Parlt)

  11. KayJay @ #202 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 10:43 am

    guytaur @ #178 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 10:26 am

    KJ

    Turnbull said it publicly on National Television.

    He said it was another source.

    Quite so.

    How would his statement be verified ? I am no looking for an argument. I simply tend not to place Mr Turnbull on the side of “truth and justice for all” side of any equation. I have been known to be wrong on beaucoup occasions.

    ☮✌☕

    I think Trumble is telling the truth. Because he knows exactly who the source was. I wish Trioli had pressed him on how he could be so certain – given that if it had been ASIO they certainly would not have admitted it to Trumble.

  12. Sad that Sam is out of it. However, his decision, spoke to it well and should be respected for it.

    Much more ethical decision that people like SeeNoDonors made. Libs will try and make some mileage out of this and will fail. daS Uberspud especially.

    And if Bennelong goes ALP…………. 🙂

  14. Dastyari has been foolish but the bullies win again.

    And as for Turnbull saying ASIO was not the leak …

    Maybe not directly. If ASIO briefs a minister and the minister tells a staffer and the staff tells a journalist, ASIO can hand on heart declare it is not the leaker.

  15. FatherBob: Disgraceful character assassination in a kangaroo court. Who’s next now there’s blood in the water? twitter.com/abcnews/status…

  16. lizzie @ #144 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 8:48 am

    In spite of all evidence to the contrary, Mal still believes that the ABC is anti-Coalition.

    I find that funny, because the host was actually tried to move him along after he started going off on the woman about the Voice. He decided he’d rather talk over her so that he could keep sparring with the questioner and try to make her feel bad for not being fully satisfied with having two aboriginal members in Parliament.

    guytaur @ #200 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 9:42 am

    Presser now

    SabraLane: And @samdastyari is not taking questions: after much reflection best service I can render to ALP is not return to the Senate in 2018.

    Not unexpected, but…is he trying to have the worst possible timing? Has he not seen the coverage that was running of Turnbull’s Q&A session? Could he not have waited until after Bennelong was finished to make his announcement?

    I guess if you’re that bad at politics, you probably should resign from politics.

  17. Dastyari should have pointed out how the Chinese have donated so much more to the Liberal Party. I wish he had done an Oakeshott and talked about how foreign donations by Chinese (and other foreign) interests are rampant throughout the Australian political system before announcing his resignation.

    In the world of traitors and double agents, I put someone who has millions salted away in the Caymans to avoid paying their fair share of Australian taxes well ahead of someone who put on the official record that he had a $1600 bill paid by a donor.

  18. Good speech by Dastyari, I reckon. Goes out with his dignity intact, and avoids capitulating to accusations that may prevent a comeback in the future. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of him. He’s still incredibly young politically, and has the time to wait for this to recede into distant memory.

    I think he’s made the right choice, here. With him out of parliament, Labor is now freed up to go hard on Coalition MPs caught up in the Chinese donations saga without being accused of hypocrisy. On top of that, I daresay the precedent that has been set here could well backfire on the likes of Julie Bishop and co.

  20. “Liberal dirt unit claims a scalp.”

    Wont save them lizzie. The Libs are shaping as nasty bullies who know they are going down. Telling thing is the edge of angry hysteria to most appearances by Govt frontbenchers.

    Most of what they do is playing to their “base” not changing anyone’s mind about how they will vote. That’s a losing game for the Libs, but they dont seem to know any other way to play.

  21. a r:

    I find that funny, because the host was actually tried to move him along after he started going off on the woman about the Voice. He decided he’d rather talk over her so that he could keep sparring with the questioner and try to make her feel bad for not being fully satisfied with having two aboriginal members in Parliament.

    That really amused me too. Trioli tried to save him from himself there, and he wouldn’t let her!

  23. I agree Labor should shut up about Sam D. But Sam D should also shut up about Sam D. He did not have that much credibility before this blew up. Smear or not, the Libs attacked him because he made himself vulnerable. If he keeps being a distraction he will cost Labor any chance in Bennelong.

  24. “Dastyari may have been just a tad naive and too clever by half. He hopefully will learn a valuable lesson going forward”

    And that shows just how much power Dastyari has in Labor. Anyone else would have had to resign by now. Turnbull will be anxious to keep Dastyari in parliament.

  25. Claiming scalps is overrated, IMO. I think the Coalition will be disappointed with Dastyari’s decision today. It would have been far more in their interest for him to have stayed in parliament.

  27. “With him out of parliament, Labor is now freed up to go hard on Coalition MPs caught up in the Chinese donations saga without being accused of hypocrisy.”

    Yup, however you feel about Sam and his situation, the ALP machine has just been freed of an encumbrance. Malcolm and Co…beware.

  30. What is it with the ABC now? They seem to be fixated on this money from the Chinese stuff…especially as it seems to pertain the the ALP – yet there is heaps of information around that the LNP have been sucking up in a similar fashion.
    I know some here are quick to criticise what they see as others here having blinkered views of the ABC and its news offerings, but sometime one does wonder. As somebody pointed out earlier, the ABC takes some of its news items directly from other media sources – such is the poverty of the ABC to work it out for themselves.

    Had to smile on the comment from breakfast ABC announcer locally, to the effect he wondered how John Howard would feel about his seat “seemingly” winnable by Labor – a seat he held for a long time the announcer mindlessly continued. Said announcer seem totally oblivious of the fact that Howard managed to lose the seat and his government all at the same time……………….a rare treat for some.

  31. On top of that, I daresay the precedent that has been set here could well backfire on the likes of Julie Bishop and co.

    That’s the spirit! It’s a tactical retreat, or they are signalling their commitment to advance on this by burning the bridges behind them, or something. I’m not convinced this was the best move.

  32. Rossmcg – I can see the argument that calling someone a “double agent” is a throwaway line. But it is also a very specific allegation. It’s not like calling someone slimy or dodgy, and it goes to the very heart of what a politician is all about.

  34. Soc

    ‘ Anyone else would have had to resign by now. ‘

    Nonsense. Usually when a scandal blows up, all that is required is that the person involved move to the backbench. It is very unusual to keep hounding someone after that happens.

  35. Look at George Broadarse. He has been found to have misled the Senate and that is the least of it. Yet he is still strutting about. It all blew over.

  36. QuentinDempster: Any federal ICAC must be fully resourced, have independent discretion to follow any evidentiary leads (systemic and individual corruption), disclosure protection for its informants + public hearings. Otherwise … it’s a whitewash. pic.twitter.com/0QoWB5qGEv

  37. As mentioned earlier, Dutton made the so called throwaway line without the cover of parliamentary privilege. But as posited, it is a very specific comment to make. Dastyari was well within his rights to show intent to sue for such a defamatory statement. The fact, that he has resigned instead speaks volumes

  38. I feel really sad right now. Sam has a good heart but was chewed up and spat out by politics. It’s a tough, ruthless game as anyone knows who has seen the machine whirring and grinding its gears up close.

    I’m sure the NSW ALP will rally around Sam. I, personally will go up to him and give him a big hug on Thursday night if he turns up to the NSW Labor Xmas party. He deserves it for doing the noble thing.

  39. Socrates @ #224 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 10:57 am

    “Dastyari may have been just a tad naive and too clever by half. He hopefully will learn a valuable lesson going forward”

    And that shows just how much power Dastyari has in Labor. Anyone else would have had to resign by now. Turnbull will be anxious to keep Dastyari in parliament.

    There are a lot of us here who are not touched by Sam’s alleged ‘power’ but still feel outrage at the way this has been played out. I suggest you scroll down and look at the donations received by Liberal Party interests directly from Mr Huang’s company and the failure of the MSM to run with that to show why we are totally unhappy with this.

    The reason why Sam had not ‘resigned’ up to now has a lot more to do with outrage at the way the matter (which is pretty much a suspiciously well-timed reheat of events over a year earlier) than with the ‘power’ he yields.

    Some Greens believe that there is a closed equation of (Greens = ethics) and everyone else is a cynical bastard out for themselves. Quite frankly Trumble is probably the only person who has shown themselves to be 100% without values at all (whether you agree with any of the values of others or not).

  41. BevanShields: Bill Shorten: Sam Dastyari is a good, decent and loyal Australian, and an effective parliamentarian, but his judgement has let him down and now he has paid the heaviest price. #auspol

  42. Zoomster

    It is unusual especially at this time of year. Of course, we happen to have the Bennelong by election happening which can go to some way of explaining the persistence. But you would think that Labor could try to ride it out until after by election, considering most people are focused on the festive season.
    Therefore, looking at the broader picture, I am inclined to feel that Dastyari was more than just an annoyance that would blow over in the short term.

  45. Dastyari was asked to reflect by his own colleagues. This is code for …….

    Have there been other instances of where you could have been unduly compromised?

    Obviously the answer is yes and reason why he resigned.

  48. The ABC need better text writers.

    At the beginning of the Dastyari statement they had;

    Dastyari resigns from Labor.

    at the bottom of the screen.

    fail!!!!

  50. Barney in Go Dau @ #248 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 11:16 am

    The ABC need better text writers.

    At the beginning of the Dastyari statement they had;

    Dastyari resigns from Labor.

    at the bottom of the screen.

    fail!!!!

    Just gone the way of pretty much every other standard that we used to associate with the ABC. Just have a look at the picture of Bill Shorten that has graced the ABC website landing page all morning. Murdoch would have been proud to run that picture.

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