Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

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  1. It will be interesting to see Turnbull’s reaction to last nights Q&A.

    It wasn’t a train wreck in the sense that he didn’t stuff anything up or get caught out.

    I can imagine he walked out of the studio feeling pretty good with himself.

    Where he constantly falls down in forums like Q&A is his low EQ, emotional intelligence.

    Last night he talked over questioners, told them they were wrong, made arguments based technicalities and word games, basically like he was in Parliament, not a public forum.

    He will be completely miffed by the response this morning.

    I think we might see grumpy Malcolm today!!! 🙂

  2. Jen

    If he does go I hope he resigns from the Labor party and stays on the Cross Bench and mounts a full on attack on the LNP dontions.

    Hopefully this is what he will do and not resign from the party.

  5. CaseyBriggs: [SENATOR SAM DASTYARI, 10:30AM] “Don’t get too excited. It looks like I have been hacked.AFP now investigating.”

  10. Well, we all know why. Is Alexander so naive?

    Last week, it emerged that a former close adviser to Mr Huang, Tim Xu, was working on the campaign of Liberal candidate John Alexander in Bennelong.

    Mr Alexander said he never spoke to Mr Xu.

    “We’ve got 600 volunteers, he was one of them,” he said.

    “I read about it in the paper and by the time I read about it, he was no longer with us.”

    He said he did not know why Mr Xu was no longer involved with his campaign.

    “I don’t know why he came, I don’t know why he left,” he said.

  16. Rather encouraging result from Essential there. Will be interesting to see what Newspoll says this weekend. And, of course, how Bennelong goes. I’m hoping others here are right and that the Dastyari stuff doesn’t bring Labor down too much, but I’m still not entirely confident to be honest.

    I think Turnbull’s bounce in approval ratings is mostly positive buss from the SSM result. It should fall back down again once that becomes yesterday’s news. Interesting too that Shorten has gotten a slight bounce in his own netsats, which may suggest that Dastyari isn’t harming him too much.

  17. Van Badham ✊ ‏Verified account @vanbadham · 3m3 minutes ago

    After a #qanda where Turnbull mansplained at First Nations people, claimed #marriageequality as his own victory after inflicting the hated survey on everyone, defended his bullshit NBN & even slagged the ABC, the ABC newsbot’s story on the episode is about… Sam Dastyari. #auspol

  18. Bill Shorten‏Verified account @billshortenmp · 46m46 minutes ago

    Bill Shorten Retweeted ABC Q&A

    I was honestly shocked by this – the total disrespect and dismissal of the legitimate aspirations of our First Australians. Turnbull would do well to lecture a lot less, and listen a lot more.

  19. victoria,

    Sam D could be doing both.

    Resigning and legal action.

    However, I would suggest resigning.

    I think it can be taken as a given there would be a constant drip flow of stories re Sam flowing out next year if he decided to try and tough it out.

    Graeme Richardson last night commented it was hitting Sam real hard and perhaps it was time for him to consider his future.

    I am sure the party in general and NSW labor have considered this all very hard and I will leave it all to their astute political senses to determine.

    Lanor will not let Sam simply slide off into the night. He is a good labor man. Labor will not forget or forgive.

    Cheers.

  20. I suppose it’s occurred to the Libs not only do they have a rapidly failing, erratic leader but that they also have one who is showing the all the signs of being very vindictive and lashing out at those he thinks have rejected him.

    In common with a previous rejected PM Turnbull has a ‘f#ck you’ level of personal wealth. He has no need or wish to be offered a large corporate ‘not required to do anything’ well remunerated sinecure.

    Regardless of him resigning from Parliament or, very unlikely, sitting on the back-bench, he will rain sh#t down on the LNP. Following the template of the previous rejected PM he may use a retired acolyte to spread the ‘poison’.

    Either way they should expect very targeted revenge that will be aimed at being as internally divisive as possible delivered by someone who has long term contacts in the press and who will make revenge their highest priority.

  21. Trunbull saying on QandA last night the information source was not ASIO could well have determined that Dastyari has legal avenue to sue.

  26. I hope Dastyari sues, and that when Labor is re-elected , the new Government refuses to fund Dutton’s legal costs or pay any damages awarded against him.

  28. “I think Turnbull’s bounce in approval ratings is mostly positive buss from the SSM result.”

    I think that the SSM result is rapidly disappearing over the event horizon of “What was all the fuss about”?

  31. remember Dutton accused Dastyari of being a double agent without the cover of parliamentary privilege. It can mean one of two things, he is confident of what he states, or he reckons he can get away with saying anything without consequence,

  39. Announcing he is suing Dutton if, that were to be what he is planning, might be the circuit breaker prior to the by-election? Defying anyone to follow suit in making claims about his conduct that can’t also be laid at the feet of the Liberal party?

  40. Re Defo. I don’t see what possible defence Dutton could have? It’s a very stark and significant allegation. If he tries the “truth” defence he will just compound the damages.

  41. Sam Dastyari, he lives near my son. They take their daughters to the same park. Sam seems like a decent person, who cares a lot for his children, even if he has been naive and said and done some foolish things.

    I suspect he will resign to end what must be a nightmare for him personally, and possibly for his family.

  43. I can’t say I have an enormous amount of sympathy for Dastyari’s plight here, but I reckon he’d be pretty justified in seeking legal action against Dutton for those ludicrous double agent comments. IANAL, however.

  44. From Guytaur’s link @10:31 “According to sources, the Dastyari leaks are suspected to have involved United States collusion. Senior Labor Party figures believe the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) leaked the audio of Sam Dastyari’s 2016 press conference in front of Chinese media…”

    United States collusion with whom? Are senior Australian Government figures ‘colluding’ with a foreign power to gain political advantage? Does that make them “double agents”?

  45. Dutton’s “double agent” was a throwaway line and while offensive probably not worth suing over.

    MPs suing each other is a slippery slope.

    Not everybody is a Rebel Wilson who can a) afford to go to court and b) get zillions for damage to reputation.

    Sam’s reputation probably wasn’t that good anyway.

    And the Joe Hockey v Fairfax case should remind every MP that the witness box is a far far diferent place than the despatch box at question time.

  46. FFS what about Gina’s and Barnaby’s dealings?
    I think Sam will sacrifice himself ‘for the good of the Party’. So Coalition claim a scalp. 😡

  47. Bevan Shields‏Verified account @BevanShields · 1m1 minute ago

    BREAKING: I’ve confirmed Sam Dastyari is resigning from Parliament #auspol

  48. Steve777 @ #111 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 8:09 am

    “…and rejects Indigenous call from the Heart”

    I think that Malcolm is probably right when he says Australians won’t vote for it.

    Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t, but that’s not the point. The perfect way to answer that question is to actually hold a vote and see, not to have the PM declare, based on no evidence whatsoever, that nobody will vote for it and then bury the subject.

    We had years of certainty that Australians were in favor of marriage equality, and that didn’t stop politicians from deciding that we need to have a postal-survey-farce just to be sure. There’s no basis for asserting that a few months of politicians feigning confidence that nobody will vote for the Voice is sufficient grounds for not actually letting people vote on it.

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