Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #89 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 8:44 am

    As a result Mr Turnbull said the information was not coming from ASIO. So we know the source has to be someone in the government.

    It has been reported that the sources were likely Mr Xu, Huang interpreter; or the American surveillance apparatus.

    Nah. It’s the timing of the disclosures that’s the giveaway. Just when Trumble is releasing the foreign donation laws and ongoing disclosures just before the by-elections. Not only is it patently a government leak but it was done in such a cack-handed way there can be no other suspect.

  2. So is another govt minister before the courts for a conflict of interest under s.44?

    Im talking about in addition to Gillespie. Someone mentioned Michael McCormack?

    If Michael then why bother. Its Riverina and its as safe as New England for the Nats.

  4. grimace

    Now we know where Rex Douglas works. The Daily Telegraph. Rex’s favourite song is the one about how no matter how good a poll result if it were not for Bill Shorten Labour would have been 10% further ahead.

  5. Vic

    The same voters booted out Howard in 2007, playing the racist card. Inner city voters in WA and QLD reacted to Libs getting in bed with PHON.

    You think they would have worked it out by now.

  6. Poroti, Grimmace.

    Rex is right as in as much that Shorten is not as popular as Turnbull and may be dragging Labor down. However I dont think its quite as much as Rex says.

    Note – I am not advocating replacing Shorten.

  8. antonbruckner11 @ #58 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 8:21 am

    How will KK’s strong catholicism play out in the electorate. Will she garner more or less of the Christian vote (are they evangelicals?)

    I certainly don’t think it will play against her. She is very in touch with thoughtful, not blind, Christianity, and what it means in contemporary society.

    I know I am not alone among Australian Catholics in finding it near impossible to reconcile these despicable statistics* with the church’s claim to be a special mediator of God’s grace and a place that I should attend in order to understand more deeply God’s love.

    (* child abuse)

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/12/this-easter-its-the-catholic-church-that-needs-redemption

    That said, I am going to a funeral tomorrow for the matriarch of a Chinese Malay family deep in the heart of Bennelong, and in googling her, found on her facebook page she had favourites like Bernardi and Abbott. But her children, who have all married Chinese Australians, seem much more liberal, and I suspect/hope they have incorporated the tolerance and broader values consistent with their age group and second generation-ness.

  10. Ides of March @ #104 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 4:51 am

    So is another govt minister before the courts for a conflict of interest under s.44?

    Im talking about in addition to Gillespie. Someone mentioned Michael McCormack?

    If Michael then why bother. Its Riverina and its as safe as New England for the Nats.

    Barry O’Sullivan is the other one that questions have been raised about, but I don’t think any action has been taken about it.

  11. “…and rejects Indigenous call from the Heart”

    I think that Malcolm is probably right when he says Australians won’t vote for it. The Right will create enough fear, uncertainty, confusion and doubt to sink it, even on the remote change that cabinet were to approve it. I think that this would happen even if the changes were limited to the most basic tokenism.

    What does concern me though is that Abbott is repeating lies that the Indigenous Assembly would be a ‘third chamber of Parliament’ with a veto power on legislation. He’s throwing his lot in with the racists.

  13. Essential is proof that the electorate has ceased listening to the govt.

    Not sure whether we’re going to get other polls (apart from Bennelong) until January now but whatever ide that SSM and trashing Dastyari would miraculously turn everything around is dead in the water.

    ESJ – you need to race back to Menzies House and suggest a new attack, get new instructions … your current pinpricks haven’t had any effect at all.

  15. Turnbull preparing for the ‘ICAC by any other name’, showing that once again, the only thing that matters to him when passing bills is the title, and how he can use that title for political gain (or more often to limit political loss).

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-opens-door-to-national-anticorruption-body-but-dismisses-icac-model-as-beset-by-hearsay-and-rumour-20171211-h02ivi.html

  16. jenauthor @ #113 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 9:13 am

    Essential is proof that the electorate has ceased listening to the govt.

    Not sure whether we’re going to get other polls (apart from Bennelong) until January now but whatever ide that SSM and trashing Dastyari would miraculously turn everything around is dead in the water.

    ESJ – you need to race back to Menzies House and suggest a new attack, get new instructions … your current pinpricks haven’t had any effect at all.

    Unfortunately, the boffins of menzies house are curled up in the foetal position, sucking their thumbs and begging for their mothers.

  17. mundo @ #62 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 8:25 am

    I’m thinking of kicking in a few dollars to help out the Liberal Party.
    It’s clear to me now from watching and listening to the ABC that all political donations and particularly those from wealthy Chinese types, are going directly to the ALP and this can’t be good for democracy.
    I urge PBers to dig deep, $5 each (or whatever you can afford) could make a difference if we all pitch in.

    Being temporarily short of funds and awaiting my remittance from the mother country I am unable to assist.

    However to aid in this noble and extremely worthwhile project I am willing, nay, eager to act as treasurer for this project to help our cash strapped friends of the earth and indigenous population.

    Please forward all cash, jewellery and articles of value care of my summer home in Point Piper.

    Thank you for your brave and nurturing nature and caring actions. May the good Lord bless and keep you. 💰🙏📿🙏💰

  18. Thinking about the exchange on Q&A on the NBN, as reported in the news.com.au article I thought of how to finally skewer Turnbull (ex merchant banker) on this issue.
    My follow up question would be ‘you may be technically correct on the NBN roll-out, but aren’t you planning to sell it when complete? Let’s say that is 2025, by then it will be worthless, you will not be able to get a cent for it’.

    Note I don’t advocate selling an asset like the NBN just that asset values are the only thing he understands.

  20. JEChalmers: @TimWattsMP Yeah I’m prettt sure “Utter Tosser” wasn’t the Courier Mail headline he was hoping for …. pic.twitter.com/CWfym3Se8j

  21. Steve777 @ #116 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 5:09 am

    “…and rejects Indigenous call from the Heart”

    I think that Malcolm is probably right when he says Australians won’t vote for it. The Right will create enough fear, uncertainty, confusion and doubt to sink it, even on the remote change that cabinet were to approve it. I think that this would happen even if the changes were limited to the most basic tokenism.

    What does concern me though is that Abbott is repeating lies that the Indigenous Assembly would be a ‘third chamber of Parliament’ with a veto power on legislation. He’s throwing his lot in with the racists.

    That’s part of the problem, it all feeds into the I’m Malcolm and I know everything, so don’t question, just listen!

  24. Turnbull preparing for the ‘ICAC by any other name’, showing that once again, the only thing that matters to him when passing bills is the title, and how he can use that title for political gain (or more often to limit political loss).

    He’ll probably send it after Dastyari, other Labor figures and Unions.

  29. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017 at 8:17 am
    don @ #47 Tuesday, December 12th, 2017 – 4:08 am

    Steve777 says:
    Tuesday, December 12, 2017 at 6:19 am
    Here is the Bennelong ballot paper:

    http://www.aec.gov.au/bennelong

    Alexander gets the donkey vote.

    He is number four, ahead of KK at number 5. The first three are not serious players, and will likely be eliminated early, so it depends then on the allocation of their preferences, surely?

    ______________________
    Which means any conventional donkey vote would go to Alexander.

    Sorry, you and Zoom are right, I was wrong.

  30. ‘… the only thing that matters to him when passing bills is the title…’

    Which reminds me of a presser Andrew Peacock once did when he was Leader of the Liberals.

    He had released, with great fanfare, an updated policy document.

    The journalists, a little puzzled, pointed out that it was exactly the same as the last policy document.

    “No,” said Peacock. “We’ve changed the headings.”

  33. kimbakit: During PM’s Chinaphobic delirium, Liberals are instructed to be outraged by just two of these donations… Can you guess which? #auspol
    @cpyne and @MathiasCormann and @juliebishopmp decline to comment. pic.twitter.com/gZ010EMtzW



  34. What does concern me though is that Abbott is repeating lies that the Indigenous Assembly would be a ‘third chamber of Parliament’ with a veto power on legislation.

    That concerns me too. I though Truffles was the instigator of this, but it must be a meme of the MPs. Abbott very good at distorting the truth to make people afraid.

  37. So for any bennelong PBers

    REASONS NOT TO VOTE FOR .@JAforBennelong:

    1. He plans to retire.
    2. His hearts not in it.
    3. He’s only going through the motions.
    4. He’d be relieved if he lost.
    5. He’s standing only to save Turnbull’s job.
    6. Refer to reasons 1-5

  39. I think the Bennelong by-election is a microcosm of the Clash of Civilisations that we are also seeing being played out in the Alabama Special Election. Whitebred supremacists versus multicultural. Who will prevail?

  41. kimbakit: PM’s Perth fundraiser has foreign government official at every table to guide proceedings….

    Why is PM allowing foreign governments to infiltrate the Liberal party & help his party raise money? #auspol pic.twitter.com/afSw5SLy86


  42. For those interested and to assist with formatting posts.

    I will test all of these later and post any corrections.

    Those who are using ARs C+ will know that the opening “square bracket” character on the keyboard will produce “blockquote” and the closing “square bracket” character will produce “/blockquote”; both enclosed in “less than” and “greater than” characters.

  45. In spite of all evidence to the contrary, Mal still believes that the ABC is anti-Coalition.

    The prime minister faced pressure on a number of fronts during an at-times tetchy performance on the current affairs program, at one point suggesting that the host, Virginia Trioli, was asking an ‘ABC question’ when she referred to Turnbull’s well-documented battles with the right of his party, and objecting to a time limit imposed on his rhetorical attack on Dastyari.

    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 1h1 hour ago

    That’s Mr Tetchy to you https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/11/malcolm-turnbull-denies-he-is-anti-china-in-combative-qa-appearance?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet … #auspol

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