Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

  1. I am somewhat bemused (yeah i know) when people who post on internet forums get upset about privacy issues.

    I am sure that the owners of this site and and couple of others I visit are reputable people but …

    And I have a Woolworths rewards card and they probably know more about me than my doctor. They certainly know that I don’t always take his advice in relation to what I should or shouldn’t eat. Or drink.

    Hope I can trust them not to dob.

  2. guytaur @ #1198 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 6:47 pm

    Bemused

    You are over hyping electronic records forcing me to point out flaws.

    There are flaws with both. The point is proper safeguards need to be in place.

    The public has to have confidence. Thats why I pointed to the Apple Keynote. They make secure electronic data storage something customers trust.

    Electronic records afford much greater opportunities to ensure the integrity of the records and to detect any tampering. It also allows the records to be instantly available where needed.
    Security issues can be addressed.

  3. rossmcg @ #1200 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 6:48 pm

    I am somewhat bemused (yeah i know) when people who post on internet forums get upset about privacy issues.

    I am sure that the owners of this site and and couple of others I visit are reputable people but …

    And I have a Woolworths rewards card and they probably know more about me than my doctor. They certainly know that I don’t always take his advice in relation to what I should or shouldn’t eat. Or drink.

    Hope I can trust them.

    Absolutely and I would also bet they engage in electronic banking and financial transactions.

  4. Eddie Obeid left the NSW Ministry on 2/4/2003. He remained in the Legislative Council until 10/5/2011.

    Kristine Keneally took her seat in the Legislative Assembly 22/3/2003, joined the Ministry a few years later and became Premier 4/12/2009.

    Really, Labor needs to assign an attack dog to say explicitly that the Orime Minister is either a liar or he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Or both.

  5. Bemused

    Thats the whole point. Security issues are not addressed up front and centre by this government. I would expect a Labor government to do differently

  6. guytaur @ #1205 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 6:54 pm

    Bemused

    Thats the whole point. Security issues are not addressed up front and centre by this government. I would expect a Labor government to do differently

    Yeah right. Cabinet will sit around the table coding.

    It is the public service and agencies that are responsible and no-one of any political persuasion is in favour of lax data security.

  7. Ross

    You can be both for security and modern electronic records. They are not mutually exclusive. Despite the hype that its too late.

    Its not. Its ony human political will has done this so far. See EU v US policies.

  8. NB: I’ve already said I’m in favour of electronic health records

    And I have a Woolworths rewards card

    This tired old argument came up a lot when the ABS linked dataset debate was running hot, and it’s just as bogus now.

    You chose to get the Woolworths rewards card. You can choose whether to be on facebook or other social media companies. I choose not to get reward cards, and I choose not to be on facebook.

    That’s your right, and it’s my right.

    But when something is ubiquitous and we end up having no choice then it’s an entirely different kettle of fish.

    And I’m talking the general ‘big data’ argument, not this specific measure which, on balance, I support.

  9. “.@SharriMarkson: There was consensus on both sides of the party that the latest Newspoll figures were not quite right. #Credlin”

    If you’re paid by Rupert then I assumed criticising the accuracy of Newspoll was a cardinal sin.
    Similarly for Fairfax.

  10. BK says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 5:51 pm
    guytaur
    Note how Rowe has continued the small hands theme with the hooves.

    Rowe just keeps getting better and better. He also knows about horse riding (thanks Puffy and others, I know nothing) or comes here to find out, and incorporates it into the image.

    Puffy’s knowledge (and others) gave me a much better understanding of the Rowe cartoon.

    It is a shame that he only has an Oz audience. He deserves much wider exposure.

    I have seen an 18 year old horse rider who near as dammit got into the Olympic team. She was riding down the road with a group of other riders, and it was magic to watch. She was like a centaur, half human, half horse, even a total know-nothing like me could see that she had total control and a mystical relationship with her horse. It was thirty years ago, but I can see it still.

  11. Bemused

    Leaks. Offical ones thats before you get to medicare records being on the dark web. Even if it was just the number name and address for ID theft purposes

    These are not figments of imagition or paranoia. They are reality and point to public service failing like it or not

  12. I trust (to a degree) government agencies doing their best to protect my personal information from hackers, scammers and business houses.

    I don’t trust them to protect that information from other government agencies who have no right to it, or from politicians or politicians mates who ask them to get it for them.

  13. Steve777 @ #1205 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 6:54 pm

    Eddie Obeid left the NSW Ministry on 2/4/2003. He remained in the Legislative Council until 10/5/2011.

    Kristine Keneally took her seat in the Legislative Assembly 22/3/2003, joined the Ministry a few years later and became Premier 4/12/2009.

    Really, Labor needs to assign an attack dog to say explicitly that the Orime Minister is either a liar or he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Or both.

    The liberals would be delighted if the focus remained on Obeid.

    Labor’s best approach would be to not be distracted by the Obeid bait.

  14. Mr Newbie says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 5:54 pm

    It’s similar to a nurse checking your ID with you each time before giving you medication in a hospital setting – even if they ‘know’ who you are, because it’s protocol to avoid making mistakes. No written health record from another source, especially one from months/years ago, is going to be taken as gospel without first verifying its accuracy with the patient/family/treating doctors.

    I have a colonoscopy every few years because of my family medical history. So far so good.

    But the last three times I was at first amused and then on mature reflection gratified, as to how many times they asked me my full name and birth date, and asked me what procedure I thought I was in for. There were no leading questions, it was totally on the up-and-up.

    It derives, I understand, from sad cases where people had the wrong leg taken off, and similar.

  15. Too late, the bird has flown

    http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/abc-to-launch-new-rural-affairs-program-three-years-after-axing-bush-telegraph-20171213-h03wgg.html

    I am a city boy who spent a short period working in the country and now my main travel interest is rural and regional australia.

    Bush Telegraph was almost mandatory listening for me and did the Nats kick up on behalf of their constituents when it was axed? Cant recall any anger.

  16. don @ #1219 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 7:15 pm

    Mr Newbie says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 5:54 pm

    It’s similar to a nurse checking your ID with you each time before giving you medication in a hospital setting – even if they ‘know’ who you are, because it’s protocol to avoid making mistakes. No written health record from another source, especially one from months/years ago, is going to be taken as gospel without first verifying its accuracy with the patient/family/treating doctors.

    I have a colonoscopy every few years because of my family medical history. So far so good.

    But the last three times I was at first amused and then on mature reflection gratified, as to how many times they asked me my full name and birth date, and asked me what procedure I thought I was in for. There were no leading questions, it was totally on the up-and-up.

    It derives, I understand, from sad cases where people had the wrong leg taken off, and similar.

    You feared the wrong colon being examined?

  17. Wayne says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 6:27 pm
    JA will win on Saturday and give the Turnbull government it’s One seat majority back and KK will be kicked to the gutter where she belongs and Turnbull will win the next election and ALP polling says JA will win 70 to 30

    Thanks Wayne. Noted for future use.

  18. CTar1

    And no conviction recorded I think is as important. As I understand it that means there are lots of things he can do without having to tell people he has form for fraud.

  19. bemused says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 7:17 pm


    don @ #1219 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 7:15 pm

    But the last three times I was at first amused and then on mature reflection gratified, as to how many times they asked me my full name and birth date, and asked me what procedure I thought I was in for. There were no leading questions, it was totally on the up-and-up.

    It derives, I understand, from sad cases where people had the wrong leg taken off, and similar.

    You feared the wrong colon being examined?

    Don’t be stupider than you can help.

  20. don:

    But the last three times I was at first amused and then on mature reflection gratified, as to how many times they asked me my full name and birth date, and asked me what procedure I thought I was in for. There were no leading questions, it was totally on the up-and-up.

    Precisely. Despite claims to the contrary, centralised digital medical records are not going to save time, and certainly are not going to make the difference between life and death in an emergency situation.

  21. The latest Newspoll but JA ahead by 72% to 28% and the Turnbull government will have its one seat majority back when parliament resumes in feb and labor will lose five seats when the member for longman batman Fremantle and Braddon will be won by the LNP and shorten will have to resign and albo will take over the labor leadership next year……..

  22. Wayne @ #1240 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 3:43 pm

    The latest Newspoll but JA ahead by 72% to 28% and the Turnbull government will have its one seat majority back when parliament resumes in feb and labor will lose five seats when the member for longman batman Fremantle and Braddon will be won by the LNP and shorten will have to resign and albo will take over the labor leadership next year……..

    Are you Rex’s cousin from the other side of town? 🙂

  23. Seriously!

    If you have ever, ever criticised anyone for not ‘trusting the experts’ when it comes to issues like climate change or the safety of vaccinations or whatever, then surely it is rank hypocrisy to ignore the experts when they say something will help them do their job?

    Or is it that we just trust the experts when they’re saying what we want them to say, and dismiss them when they don’t?

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