Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

  1. FinancialReview: Here is @roweafr take on Roy Moore’s defeat in the Alabama senate election. For more cartoons: bit.ly/2APFpJb pic.twitter.com/vGWpogVbgV

  2. Margaret Kitchener

    If you try to take out insurance without disclosing pre existing conditions, you may as well save your money as the insurance company will never pay out anyway.

    For example there are many places in the world I can’t travel to because only an idiot would sell me travel insurance with medical cover. I’m basically restricted to countries with similar health systems to ours and reciprocal agreements.

    There obviously need to be stringent privacy protections around health records but at the moment someone could break into my gps surgery and walk out with my whole file. Similarly staff at the three hospitals where I currently have active records and a few others where I have archived records could potentially steal my details. Not to speak of the numerous specialists I have consulted.

    I actually expect that the advent of the e health records will lead to an overall improvement in practical security measures around all this data as no person or organisation will want to be fitted up as having breached privacy.

  3. Libs always lie with such confidence.

    What’s that expression? He’s Liberal; he lies.

    Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan · 29m29 minutes ago

    The PM is flat out lying and he knows it. @KKeneally DID NOT apppint Obeid to her ministry. He was booted by Carr in 2003 and never returned.

  4. Wayne
    JA will win the seat of bennelong by a landslide according to the latest ALP polling and he will kick KK to the gutter where she belongs and Malcom Turnbull will be PM for another six years

    That’s nice dear.

  5. CTar1:

    I’d say a critical issue is that medical records centralised or not are, in my experience, generally poorly maintained and inaccurate.

    I’ve been in and out of hospital (three in the last 12 mths) a number of times in the last couple of years. “Discharge Summary” records generally are woeful.

    Oh, totally. I had to correct my (now retired) GP’s record, once, and another time, a condition a former-GP (mis)diagnosed me with wasn’t even on my record!

  6. ajm:

    If you try to take out insurance without disclosing pre existing conditions, you may as well save your money as the insurance company will never pay out anyway.

    I switched health insurance companies less than 6 months prior to having a stroke, and had to get my treating doctors to sign a form to declare that the stroke was not a pre-existing condition (seriously).

  7. Because I am one of the nobodies on PB I have no fear of people finding out stuff about me. It is pretty boring.

    But gee I reckon that when I am admitted to hospital unconscious with no one who knows me about to answer questions I reckon it would be handy if the doctor could, say, check quickly my blood group.

    Or if I had an allergy before he served up the potentially lifesaving antibiotics.

    Or if I had a pacemaker before he tried to jump start my ailing heart.

    That is the sort of information I would expect could be quickly accessed. The fact I broke my finger in 1969 would probably be a few pages down.

    But if people are happy to maybe die for a principle good luck to them.

  8. Ross

    See my links to teh White papers of governments around the world on privacy and the efficacy this provides in preventing communicable diseases.

    No theory. Alreay proven. Australia uses this. We call it the harm minimisation policy. It works on the basis the police will never know you are a drug user.

    Just one practical expample of why safeguards are needed to prevent unauthorised access. That needs to be addressed first.
    Having privacy concerns is not paranoia

  9. It seems someone on Sky News has been suggesting there is a poll showing Libs 53-47 but pollster not mentioned nor any other detail. Might be the same mob that brought us the Lib internal poll showing Libs on 54, only to have Newspoll at 50-50 a few days later.

  10. ajm:

    The other aspect is that it enables medical professionals to be able to do their jobs much better in many situations, which I imagine is a matter of great significance to them.

    I repeat, any health professional treating you is going to want to verify the information they have (if from other sources) on you is accurate with you (or your family if you are unable to communicate). Nothing written is taken as gospel without verifying it. It is much more time-efficient to ask you/your family directly what, if any, medical conditions you may have which may alter the course of treatment than it is to read a lab report which is unlikely to even be current if it’s on your file.

    It’s similar to a nurse checking your ID with you each time before giving you medication in a hospital setting – even if they ‘know’ who you are, because it’s protocol to avoid making mistakes. No written health record from another source, especially one from months/years ago, is going to be taken as gospel without first verifying its accuracy with the patient/family/treating doctors.

  11. Maiden said Labor internal polling. Not sure whether this would be a deliberate ‘we’re the underdogs’ release or not.

    They seemed very happy today (Shorten & KK) regardless.

  12. zoomster

    We don’t know if they support this governments version.

    There are real privacy concerns the government needs to address so people can have confidence in it.

    See Apple introducing biometrics in their keynote. They put privacy concerns front and centre addressed them directly straight up.

  13. I would love it if any PB posters were nurses/doctors currently working at the nRAH. I hear many a grumbling about the EPAS electronic patient record system and the media have been running strong criticism of it like;

    South Australian patient records system EPAS ‘dangerous’, ‘unfit for purpose’, new survey of medical staff reveals

  14. Hopefully there will be another public poll released for Bennelong. If not Newspoll, then ReachTel could be commissioned by a media outlet or other interested party.

  15. zoomster @ #1170 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 6:07 pm

    Stupid experts, what would they know?

    I have no objection to one of my doctors sharing my health information with another of my doctors (provided I have authorized it) or with a doctor acting in an emergency capacity on my behalf (if I and my family or designated proxy were all unavailable or could not be consulted in reasonable time).

    Beyond that, you have got to be kidding!

  16. That poll could be a correctly reported single seat poll with a MoE of 4%.

    If reported by Labor then you would have to assume they want underdog status but my preference would be to have not published it,to let the Liberals worry and make another mistake.

  17. Mr Newbie @ #1137 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 5:18 pm

    bemused:

    The cops keep such databases. Access is logged and any improper access dealt with severely.

    They don’t have databases of people’s medical records. Virtually everyone has a medical record. Very few people, by comparison, have a criminal record.

    No, they keep records on people who have come to their attention and it includes all sorts of information such as address, employment etc.
    Most people have quite boring medical histories, myself included.

  18. JA will win on Saturday and give the Turnbull government it’s One seat majority back and KK will be kicked to the gutter where she belongs and Turnbull will win the next election and ALP polling says JA will win 70 to 30

  19. CTar1 @ #1144 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 5:25 pm

    Bw

    I’d say a critical issue is that medical records centralised or not are, in my experience, generally poorly maintained and inaccurate.

    I’ve been in and out of hospital (three in the last 12 mths) a number of times in the last couple of years. “Discharge Summary” records generally are woeful.

    And written records frequently illegible and can be altered if any mishap occurs.

  20. Notice how the ABC edit statements from Shorten so that he is cut off almost before the last word is out. Doesn’t happen to Trumble to the same extent.

  21. Bemused

    As soon as you start talking alteration you need to look at the record of why electronic voting is so bad.

    Similar concerns would arise for permanent health records.

  22. ajm @ #1151 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 5:37 pm

    Margaret Kitchener

    If you try to take out insurance without disclosing pre existing conditions, you may as well save your money as the insurance company will never pay out anyway.

    For example there are many places in the world I can’t travel to because only an idiot would sell me travel insurance with medical cover. I’m basically restricted to countries with similar health systems to ours and reciprocal agreements.

    There obviously need to be stringent privacy protections around health records but at the moment someone could break into my gps surgery and walk out with my whole file. Similarly staff at the three hospitals where I currently have active records and a few others where I have archived records could potentially steal my details. Not to speak of the numerous specialists I have consulted.

    I actually expect that the advent of the e health records will lead to an overall improvement in practical security measures around all this data as no person or organisation will want to be fitted up as having breached privacy.

    You will never convince the Luddites.
    I am not even going to try.

  23. Meanwhile the RupertRooters on SkyNews are confirming each other that the Bennelong NewsPoll is wrong

    .@SharriMarkson: There was consensus on both sides of the party that the latest Newspoll figures were not quite right. #Credlin

  24. Bemused

    You are over hyping electronic records forcing me to point out flaws.

    There are flaws with both. The point is proper safeguards need to be in place.

    The public has to have confidence. Thats why I pointed to the Apple Keynote. They make secure electronic data storage something customers trust.

  25. So, seems that the ALP are hitting the pre-poll in Bennelong hard with volunteer presence. Anyone here with on the ground impressions of how hard the Libs are going at the moment??

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