A Galaxy poll on Victorian state voting intention for the Herald-Sun finds Labor and the Coalition level on two-party preferred, a substantial improvement for Daniel Andrews’ goverment since the last such poll in June, at which the Coalition led 53-47. On the primary vote, Labor is up three to 36%, the Coalition is down three to 41%, the Greens are up two to 10% and One Nation is up one to 6%. Daniel Andrews leads Matthew Guy 41-25 as preferred premier, up from 41-29. Other findings: only 30% believe the decision to cancel the East West Link was a good one, versus 57% for bad; 58% are in favour of building it, with 20% opposed; 42% think the state headed in the right direction, versus 44% for wrong; and 48% rate the Liberal Party better to handle the economy, versus 33% for Labor. Unusually for a Galaxy poll, it looks to have had a single field work date, namely Wednesday; the sample was 828.
Lobster Potgate is probably why. Plus, Government continues to announce huge infrastructure projects which are always favourably looked upon by the voters.
This poll result seems baffling, in that I’ve no idea why the Libs are even in with a chance. I’m a Greens voter, but I consider this ALP state government quite good both in its progressive policies and its ability to get on with improving public transport (to name a couple of areas).
I’m struggling to think of an area where it’s clearly failing, though I’m not keen on its endless proposals for pointless mega-$$$ freeways which will be congested five minutes after construction.
And the Libs here are no-hopers, especially after that dreadul do-nothing term of government we endured from them in 2010-2014.
Xoanon,
Do you live in Greensborough Growler’s patch out in the north-north-eastern suburbs and have the traffic crawling past your house to get to and from the eastern end of the Metropolitan Ring Road or do you have the luxury of living in an inner city suburb where you can catch a tram or ride your bicycle almost everywhere that you need or want to go?
Just wondering??
“This poll result seems baffling, in that I’ve no idea why the Libs are even in with a chance.”
ditto from me…..
I live in the east and drive along the Monash to and from work every day. Every time the latest “upgrade” finally comes to an end, you barely have time to blink before the next one starts. I can just about remember a total of five minutes over the last twenty years where some section hasn’t been ripped up with lanes blocked and concrete barriers 5cm from the sides and “temporary” speed restrictions in place.
I dream of having a do-nothing government.
TallebudgeraLurker: I’m inner-city. But I can’t see that new roads anywhere help much at all, numerous studies show they induce more driving. The money (and we’re talking HUGE piles of cash) would always be better spent on improving public transport in and to those areas IMO.
So Matthew Guy has still got a chance of becoming da big boss??
Andrews needs ot do more about this matter before it becomes a “burning issue”
“Owners of each apartment on the taskforce’s list are being told separately if their building has combustible cladding.
But with 50 per cent of residents in Victorian apartments renting, there are fears that – if the list stays confidential – tenants will never know their building is a heightened fire risk.”
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/victoria/council-orders-brunswick-block-owners-to-get-a-2m-flameable-cladding-fix-20171207-h00f43.html
The task force response is far seems far too weak. I also wonder if it fully complies with Victorian law, which is quite strong on building safety and OH&S liabilities. There is a real risk Labor may not get accurate advice on this matter from within the bureaucracy. There appear to have been many regulatory failures in the Victorian government when this cladding was used on apartment towers. It was not approved for high rise. A few senior public servants may have careers at stake in not admitting them. I hope cladding does not become the Victorian equivalent of “Mr Fluffy”, only this time, “Mr Smokey”. The developers and builders have money, so are worth legally pursuing for any case that has not gone past the statute of limitations.
If Andrews is not going to do anything, then the owners stuck with them really should start class actions, before it is too late.
“” The money (and we’re talking HUGE piles of cash) would always be better spent on improving public transport in and to those areas IMO.””
Now that’s what I call good old COMMON SENSE!.
Which I may add is in VERY short supply in this country!.
Andrews would also do well to back out of the West gate tunnel project, which is very dubious in transport terms, and sure to disappoint in congestion when it finishes. Of course, that might limit private sector career opportunities post politics for current ministers, and corporate cash coming to Labor, so understandable if Andrews is not willing to act in the public interest on this occasion.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-an-international-pariah-on-west-gate-tunnel-experts-warn-20171207-h00use.html
I realise that politics is as divorced from the technical as the catholic church is divorced from ethics, but even so I get alarmed at the extent to which Australian State Labor governments are building inner urban freeways like there is no tomorrow. All over the western world countries are abandoning them. If autonomous cars work as claimed they won’t be needed. If they don’t they will be hopelessly congested. Either way, nobody thinks they make economic sense to invest in now, except the people who make money building them.
I’m just glad crime rate is now going down and law and order hysteria is dying down. For a while this issue was a BBQ stopper in suburbs.
Let’s face it, people complaining about road investment the most are most likely to vote Green and preference Labor. This election will be won in suburbs where % 90 of people commute with a car. Governme t shouldn’t get sucked into inner city issues, especially after getting a kick up the arse despite doing everything to appease inner city voters. E.g. Northcote
Given that both the SUN and the TheAge are flat out campaigning against Andrews this is an excellent result.
This Government is actually spending truckloads of money upgrading the public transport system with the elimination of many dangerous level crossings, the extension of the metro trainline to Mernda, and upgrades to Country rail lines etc.
The Ring Road needs to connect up with the Eastern Freeway to get enormous B doubles and other heavy carrier vehicles off standard suburban roads.
It also demonstrates that the Andrews Government can chew gum and fart at the same time.
I’m a recent Victorian and I can’t say I know enough about the issues in the state yet to understand the political landscape, but traffic is certainly a lot better in Melbourne than basically any city in New South Wales. They must be doing something right.
Gorks @ #10 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 2:10 pm
Seriously? I have never had a single person mention it in conversation.
What goes on at your BBQs?
Greensborough Growler @ #13 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 3:40 pm
What do you think of the chosen route for the Ring Road?
The only thing I see in favour of it is the lower cost compared to alternatives.
Bleurgh @ #14 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 5:06 pm
Yes, for decades the suburban rail network was neglected in favour of roads. It shows.
I live in the West and my ALP branch is Caroline Springs. It’s been a huge issue this way but it’s dying down. I had friends ask me out of random if I got broken into and 1 mate in st Albans got home invaded last year by a bunch of people with tasers.
The Transurban scheme to pump tens of thousands of cars into West Melbourne and Docklands the state ALP government is supporting, looks doomed. The Greens have always opposed it and now the Coalition have announced they also intend to oppose the toll extensions to pay for it and vote it down and that means there is a majority to do so.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/coalition-flags-plan-to-kill-west-gate-tunnel-project-in-parliament-20171208-h01l4o.html
Given that most of the traffic on would be western suburbs traffic and the tolls for extending are on Citylink which has lots of Liberal and marginal seat traffic, it is an easy shot for them to oppose it.
The Greens are steadfastly against car dependence induce road projects like this.
Tom the first and best
So you have not had to commute across the west gate.
pica @ #4 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 12:48 pm
Same, and i dont think Libs have even a slight chance, i liken Andres to Bracks. I live in blue ribbon regional seat, dont hear any anger or major concerns from even Lib voters.
I think the story is Labor have actually been ‘getting on with the job’ (as well as saying it), off the top of my head, apart from some tunnel somewhere…
– Regional Rail improvement
– Metro level crossing removals
– Planing for Airport link
– North East link ring road connector
– Regional rail hub
– Some Improvements to Geelong line (i cant remember)
– Assisted Dying Legislation
– Medicinal Marijuana
And the economy is going well, no issues there.
The one promise i remember hearing from the Libs is that they promise to take away the Grand Final day public holiday (because its bad for business), the Grand final is in September, about 2 months before an election (fixed date)
Actually, just checked in with an old lib voter who thinks ALP will get rolled because of regional backlash, says lots of people are really upset about the money being spent in Melbourne. But the person in question isn’t politically switched on, if it was an issues ALP would likely gain more seats in Metro than they could lose in Regions as there arent many.
I should have said i liken the Andrews government to the bracks government, Andrews doesnt have the charisma Bracks did, but isnt disliked either. And CFA issue was huge, but split down party lines, not a vote changer IMO.
thanks Bug1,
This poll just doesn’t fit with most others, other than the 2 obviously partisan L/NP polls.
Also, I question why people rate the Liberals much better on the economy, when Labor has already done massively well in this area. Not to mention the substantial surplus we have.
Roads and Highways never fix shit in the first place, see the highways in NSW and Queensland (like the M4).
They are shit.
Ante Meridian @ #5 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 12:01 pm
Ante Meridian,
Why don’t you use public transport every day to commute to and from work; why drive on the Monash car park?
‘Actually, just checked in with an old lib voter who thinks ALP will get rolled because of regional backlash, says lots of people are really upset about the money being spent in Melbourne.’
Which is all very well, except that Matthew Guy is proposing to spend ALL the money from his proposed sale of Snowy Hydro in Melbourne.
Xoanon @ #6 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 12:08 pm
Xoanon,
So how would you commute from Boronia to and from Broadmeadows (or such similar trips) each day for work? Would you force each of those persons to give up their car, maybe even an electric hybrid car, and spend all of their spare time using the mostly radial public transport system to commute through the city centre? Maybe that family should relocate from Boronia or some other nice location near the Dandenongs and move to Epping or somewhere equally as appealing. I don’t think my son would like that too much!!
How would you direct trucks (rigids, semi-trailers and B doubles) from the Hume Freeway and the Metropolitan Ring Road to the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne and vice versa?
By the way I applaud the Andrews government with:
1. Getting on with the Melbourne Metro Rail Project;
2. Buying (manufacturing) new rolling stock (commuter train sets) in Victoria/Australia. The previous Queensland LNP government bought new commuter train sets from India and that is a complete debacle – only 3 sets will be available for the Commonwealth Games next year;
3. Grade separating the many arterial roads and the heavy rail at all of the significant level crossings;
4. Etc, etc
I think rail and road separation is the biggest thing that is happening in Melbourne. At the moment we are in a catch22; can’t increase the trains without bringing the roads to a halt.
Brumby spent a lot of money in the country and they voted him out; I was surprised he was a builder also. The country folk can in my view go whistle.
Socrates @ #9 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 1:08 pm
Socrates,
I don’t know what the solution to the access problem from the west in Melbourne is since transport planners rarely write reports that aren’t slanted with bias one way or another (because of who is paying the ferryman).
Is the western world, are freeways being abandoned or not being built as originally planned?
Gorks @ #11 Friday, December 8th, 2017 – 1:15 pm
Gorks,
I couldn’t agree more.
Who knows what the future will hold with regard to personal transport modes (electric cars versus ??)?
I wonder how someone who lives in Fitzroy gets to Lorne for their beachside surfing holiday?
Zoidlord @ #25 Saturday, December 9th, 2017 – 1:48 am
Zoidlord,
Do you own a car and have to use it to commute for work?
I presume that the M4 you reference is in western Sydney (extending from North Strathfield in the east to Glenbrook in west).
How is it that you think roads and highways are shit?
I used the train to commute from Varsity Lakes Station on the Gold Coast to Park Road Station in Brisbane (and return) for a work meeting on Thursday and a car to commute with my invalid wife to an appointment at Saint Andrews Hospital in Spring Hill on Friday. Transport solutions are and should be horses for courses!!
frednk @ #29 Saturday, December 9th, 2017 – 5:56 am
Frednk,
I think that bug1 captured a fairly good list of big things and only excluded the Mernda heavy rail extension and Hurstbridge heavy rail upgrade (these are both radial transport routes leading to or from the city centre).
Country folk shouldn’t have to go whistle unless they are whingers – when we lived in central Victoria, we didn’t whinge and appreciated projects like the extension of the Hume Freeway down to the Metropolitan Ring Road.
We had to have a sustained and loud whinge to get improvements on our rail line (W’bool), and its going to take a lot more than has been promised before its good enough. (regional trains should be faster and cheaper than solo driving)
I think what people want is to see steady improvements over decades, Infrastructure Victoria (which Andrews government established) is an important enabler of that, but not many people care how the sausage is made…
Infrastructure Victoria, despite its extensive processes, still missed projects of obvious need in the country like the train here, they seem mostly concerned about long term planning permits, which is extremely important for metro, but less so in regional areas.
No doubt when we have a Greens Party government all transport issues will be banished.
Until then, we will have Greens Party supporters urging perfection and decrying the lack thereof.
Problem is that politicians want to build roads for trucks but they want car drivers to pay for them. Out sides have this formula then argue that my massively expensive road is better than yours.
Only public transport investment will solve Melbournes problems – until the major parties recognise that they will continue to haemorrhage votes to the greens. Greens could end up with 4 or 5 seats next time
Bob
Maybe the Greens Party should be renamed the ‘The 20– Greens Gunna Government Party’.
Individual Greens Party politicians can fill in the year of choice for when nirvana arrives and we finally get a Greens Party Government.
My view is that they might just get there sometime after the Great Barrier Reef is stone dead.
But even that is not much a hope.
If these road projects were only about freight, they would be freight only roads. Both the Westgate Tunnel proposal and the North East Link proposal will mainly serve radial trips between suburbs and the inner-city and CBD and radial trips between suburbs (e.g. Greensborough-Heidelberg).
Bob @ #36 Saturday, December 9th, 2017 – 10:27 am
I dont know about that, i think Labor has advanced significant progressive issues, Assisted Dying, medicinal Marijuana, supervised injecting rooms.
It would be ironic if there was a protest vote from the hard left against the most progressive government we have had in a long time (more progressive than Bracks/Brumby).
Also Labor have pushed renewable hard, and stood up to the federal government to ban fracking, and i dont know what the numbers are but probably spent or spending more on public transport than any government in a long time.
I would be surprised if greens hold their seats.
Greens might have difficulty holding Prahan – they won it from third position. I would be surprised if they lost either Melbourne or Northcote given the recent Northcote by election. Upper house is another question – they may have been lucky to get as many as they did last time and might drop one or two seats
Prahran will obviously be a tightly fought seat, being the most marginal seat of the previous election.
The Greens were only 426 votes (out of 37,003 formal votes) behind on primary and only 31 votes behind on 3CP. Given the sophomore effect and the Greens` inner-city popularity at the moment, the Greens are in with a reasonable chance of coming second on primary votes in 2018 and thus in less danger of being defeated by the ALP (although if they are a close second, the ALP could theoretically overtake them on preferences and win but the ALP has never won from third in any of the victories from third on primaries I am aware of (they are always second on 2CP or third on 3CP in the lower house seats this has happened in)). The main danger to the Greens in Prahran is thus likely the Liberals.
The Greens are likely to win a seat in each of Northern and Southern Metro, given their primary vote in those regions. The Greens chances in other regions are more variable and highly subject to preferences in other regions.
Tom the first and Best – thanks for that info shoring up my memory on Prahan and the regions
If this poll was correct, on a uniform swing, the Andrews government would lose it’s overall majorty, and would have to work with the Greens and Sheed to form a majority.
I do not believe that this poll is correct though.
Hi guys,
Long time lurker, first time commenter. I’m a Vic voter, living in the state seat of Carrum.
People who reckon the Greens will struggle to hold their seats must not have been paying attention in November. Andrews had gone as hard as possible on progressive policy and still was creamed. 2018 – I would strongly tip Brunswick and Richmond (at least) to go Green, bringing them to five. Not sure about upper house.
Especially if the Libs follow through with this plan to not even run candidates in inner-Melbourne seats (leaving the ALP and Greens to duke it out, as per Northcote):
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-19/victorian-liberals-may-not-run-in-inner-city-seats-director-says/9165698
…and the Libs also considering preferencing the Greens above Labor even if they do run a candidate:
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/victorian-election-2018-liberals-greens-deal-in-play/news-story/316c8fd2f5b1d7d1fa0bd81d871bdd68
Preferencing the Greens has been under at least occasional consideration by some in the VicLibs for a while, I remember a few years back Kroger trying to convince the rest of the party that the Greens were a better option than the ALP, that they weren’t the hippy activists they used to be etc.
Not sure if either of those stories got much attention outside Victoria, but they might become pretty relevant. My expectation is that Andrews will still be premier after 2018, but if he loses two seats to the Greens, and maybe one or two sandbelt and some other metro seats to the Libs, then it will only be with support of about 5 Greens MPs.
Overall though, even given that Dan Andrews is not the most charismatic of leaders, I’m surprised Matthew Guy is as high in the polls as he is. He’s been pretty useless. Can’t see why the Libs installed him… even before Lobstergate, people from the industry were supposedly expecting some past real estate fraud or something to blow up before the election. The VicLibs have a heap of internal financial strife as well, so who knows how well they’d be able to campaign next year.
I would not be sure of the Liberals following through on their “threat” to the ALP of not running in ALP versus Greens seats (if they ALP do not preference them in Lib versus Green seats) because that would seriously undercut their Legislative Council campaign in Northern Metro and take them from the possibility of winning a second seat to potentially the possibility of winning none. I suspect not running in Melbourne might also reduce donations to the Liberal Party from local supporters (I suspect there are quite a few wealthy Liberal donors in places like East Melbourne). The Liberals were also only 4.9% off second place in the 3CP in Melbourne in 2014 and a strong Liberal campaign combined with a Green sophomore surge could give the liberals second place (which would be distant on 2CP as ALP preferences would largely head to the Greens).
It could be in the Liberals interest to preference the Greens in Pascoe Vale, Preston, Footscray and Williamstown, to divert ALP resources in case the Greens make second place (they did in Preston, on independent preferences, in 2014).
The Greens are however still in with good chances in Brunswick and Richmond and unlikely to loose Melbourne and Northcote (unless they mess up, which I don`t think they will).
There is also no chance of the Liberals not running in Prahran because they are almost certain to lead the primary and 3CP (as well as all intermediate counts) and thus are not in any danger of having their preferences flow anywhere and regaining it could win them Government in a close election. A swing from the ALP to the Liberals could cost the Greens Prahran, a risk factor not present in their other seats in Victoria.
Doug
It’s more usual than not for a party to win back a seat it lost at a by election.
If the Libs run a candidate, it’s more probable that Labor will Northcote than the Greens will.
…so the overall message is that it’s not worth Labor shifting to the Left because they’ll still lose seats to the Greens?
Yes it’s certainly open to the Labor Party to become even more of a centrist party. It would make them less attractive to ex-Labor mostly Green voters like me. The reality is that I’m unlikely to vote for them anyway these days – but factors such as individual candidates could make a difference: which I guess illustrates the point. In some ways it would give more clarity. It may be that we are slowly evolving towards a new alignment involving the hard right- across the spectrum of Hanson to Abbott, the centre – across the spectrum of Liberal moderates and many mainstream Labor politicians and voters, and the progressive left – across the Greens and the left of the ALP. I’d personally be quite happy with the ALP withdrawing from its left front and leaving room for a more distinct progressive political movement. With growing Green Parliamentary representation in former ALP heartland in the inner cities and some regional areas we may be evolving in that direction anyway. The jihadi faction of ALPeada won’t like it of course, but they will also find a more natural constituency with other citizens of centrist disposition.