The first Newspoll in three weeks is a better one for the government, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 55-45 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down two to 8%. The better result for the Coalition flows through to Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, with approval up three to 32% and disapproval down one to 57%, and his preferred prime minister lead out from 36-34 to 39-33. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 54%.
We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers in three months, and it also has Labor leading 53-47, which is unchanged on the previous poll (this is with preferences allocated as per the last election – Ipsos produces a separate result on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s not available yet). Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 34% and Labor to 33%. Ipsos continues to record unusually strong support for the Greens, although they are down a point to 13%, and has One Nation on 7%, which I believe is the first result they have published for them. In keeping with Ipsos’s past form, leadership ratings are unusually favourable, and low on uncommitted responses: Malcolm Turnbull scores 42% approval and 49% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 38% and 42%. Also unusual is the size of Turnbull’s 48-31 lead as preferred prime minister.
The poll finds Julie Bishop (32%) edging past Malcolm Turnbull (29%) as preferred Liberal leader, with Tony Abbott on 14%, Peter Dutton on 5% and Scott Morrison on 4%. A further question suggests opposition to the notion of dumping Turnbull, but there are problems with it: it does not relate to Turnbull specifically, but to whether governing parties should or should not changes leaders mid-term. As stated, it appears those favouring an affirmative position are required to suggest that leadership changes should happen in all circumstances. So I’m not sure how much to make of the fact that only 25% signed on to this, with 71% opposed. The poll also finds 49% supporting a change to Section 44 with 47% opposed, corroborating last week’s finding by YouGov, and has 71% in support of a royal commission into banks, with just 19% opposed.
I do want to see a party ticket exhausted for the senate. Just to see what happens and how the HC rules. Void election or what.
Also isnt Christensen potentially British? I would love to see him off to a byelection given his recent actions. The Nat are probably fuming at him.
Where will the Court of Disputed Returns draw the line about a reasonable time to apply to renounce? After the election is called (Keay, but also Alexander for his by-election)? Before it’s called (Sharkie)? Months before (Gallagher)? 1 *year* before (McKim)?
Katy Gallagher has 2 expert opinions, from Dr Matthew Collins, QC (and won’t he be Solicitor General one day in a Labor government?), and ‘expert in British Nationality Law, Mr Adrian Berry’, who both have staked their reputations on saying she should be in the clear:
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/12/04/katy-gallagher-uk-citizenship-disclosure/
Apparently, her case turns on the fact she took all reasonable steps, UNTIL the UK Home Office wrote back requesting Birth Certificate originals, as opposed to scanned copies. This was new and unforseen, SO they believe she had taken all reasonable steps.
I guess if the Senate refers her to the High Court they will have to adjudicate finally as to what ‘reasonable steps’ are.
Don’t want to be too picky but Leigh Sales interview with Macartney was a bit pedestrian.
Anders Dolt takes the gloves off to lay into Brian Trumble:
https://twitter.com/theboltreport/status/937597915865874434/video/1
KayJay
Way back, good health to you and good night. I would have seen your post earlier but was google car riding around London revisiting various places from my last trip. A fantastic resource to jog the memory.
Dan Gulberry @ #653 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 8:00 pm
Bolt is a feather duster. Which is tittilating for some.
The real chicken is Turnbull!
1fer
Dan Gulberry
Pretty blunt from Andrew Blot. !
Ouch! That’s gonna hurt, Trumble. ‘No better than Julia Gillard!’ 🙂
Onya Clover. Schools and transport.
One thing Clover Moore gets is that development needs to be measured and under the control of a forward thinking Govt with a social conscience. Which is why they excised Barangaroo from city planning control.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/new-school-to-be-built-in-sydneys-green-square-20171204-gzyh3s.html
Also, Sydney City Council have spent 40 mill buying land for a light rail connection from Green Sq to the CBD; hope springs eternal.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/green-square-is-sydneys-public-transport-disaster-even-before-apartments-built-20170523-gwazy9.html
Meanwhile, taking the spill over from the brutal Westconnex to Moore Park is underway, with tell’tale pink ribbons around some of the grand figs along Dacey Avenue. Ex roads minister Duncan Gay is the doll with the pins in in my house.
Gillard was better than Turnbull.
Clover Moore gets development. Yes clearly – charging $6.60 per hour for parking is a wonderful measure to encourage poor people to visit the CBD. Best keep that riff raft out.
Your pins metaphor is disturbing too – something very troubled going on under those dull waters.
sonar @ #661 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 8:23 pm
Which is not to say that she doesn’t still have questions to answer <- That is a joke, and not a request for a shellacking
lizzie says:
Monday, December 4, 2017 at 7:59 pm
Don’t want to be too picky but Leigh Sales interview with Macartney was a bit pedestrian.
Lizzie, if you think it was pedestrian, it was pedestrian. I trust your judgement.
Not only was Gillard a much better PM than Turnbull, but her govt was a gazillion times more effective in legislating Labor’s policy agenda.
sonar says:
Monday, December 4, 2017 at 8:23 pm
Gillard was better than Turnbull.
And the sun rises in the east.
ESJ
You do realise that 85% of people trvalleing to the Sydney CBD come by public transport right?
If you are so high and might that you cant mix with the plebs you should consider 6.60 cheap.
Bolt is playing to his audience.
He’s possibly the most self-serving person in the public domain.
So 53 -47 looks quite good for Labor, but there’s just one thing….
Why persist with a leader who is clearly so unpopular. Seems to me like Labor is re-fighting the last war, i.e. we can’t knife another leader again after Rudd. The better comparison is with Hayden – why not guarantee a thumping win by a leadership change. Its not like Shorten believes in anything.
Obviously I’ve got lots to catch on from today’s QT!!
Thats rubbish Ides. Extensive public transport in the Hills District for instance or from Mt Druitt say.
The Liberals should sack Turnbull because he is toxic. The only problem is that there is no-one to replace him. Fancy not being able to sack a leader because there is only dross left!
Bolt has been carrying on like a toddler who lost his favourite toy since September 2015. I don’t understand why people give him any attention.
Confessions @ #665 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 8:30 pm
Gillard far superior to Turnbull, Abbott and Rudd.
Having said that Turnbull, like Gillard, doesn’t stand a chance thanks in-house treachery.
Edwina StJohn @ #669 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 8:31 pm
Rudds parting gift to the ALP caucus was to change the rules and make it much more difficult to change leader.
It’s strange they don’t consider a change as the public would welcome it given his PPM polling woes.
Edwina StJohn says:
Monday, December 4, 2017 at 8:26 pm
Clover Moore gets development. Yes clearly – charging $6.60 per hour for parking is a wonderful measure to encourage poor people to visit the CBD. Best keep that riff raft out.
I think you mean riff raff.
Whatever, no one should visit the CBD in a car. Charge $1000 an hour for parking, charge $1000 to enter the CBD. Let the Maserati owners pay. They can afford it, and would enjoy the chance to demonstrate their supposed superiority.
There is public transport. Use it.
@Edwina StJohn says:
………………………..”So 53 -47 looks quite good for Labor, but there’s just one thing….
Why persist with a leader who is clearly so unpopular. Seems to me like Labor is re-fighting the last war, i.e. we can’t knife another leader again after Rudd. The better comparison is with Hayden – why not guarantee a thumping win by a leadership change. Its not like Shorten believes in anything.”………………….
Yet that very same leader…(Shorten)…. brought his party back from a big electral defeat,and took a PM, who when took over had a 2PP of 55-45 in his favour, to within 1 seat of a minority govt, and has led the govt in 24 Newspolls in a row. Are you married to Rex.?
ESJ
You mean Mt Druitt, with a train station.
Or the Hills with high frequency M62 buses.
I manage the city by bus and im 40ks out. You can to.
Aussie bats earning their living tonight!
I saw somewhere that Bolt has an audience of around 27,000.
Niche stuff.
sonar:
Not to mention the only majority govt to lose a vote on the floor of the House since 1962 has been under PM Turnbull! Either careless or poor negotiation skills or housekeeping skills by Leader of the House.
Qanda:
Not Erica Bex!!
Fess
I hope Triggs ripps Abetz and that IPA guy a new one.
This is curious, an out of session Qanda?
How sweet was Wilson’s proposal to his partner? We gals at work were all watching the replay in my office, some of us getting teary. That would have to be the first marriage proposal in the Hansard ever!
Tories panicking as internal polling shows Labour 12 points ahead.
https://evolvepolitics.com/tories-panicking-as-internal-poll-puts-labour-twelve-points-ahead-of-conservatives/
non sequitur
noun [ C ] UK /ˌnɒn ˈsek.wɪ.tər/ US /ˌnɑːn ˈsek.wɪ.t̬ɚ/
a statement that does not correctly follow from the meaning of the previous statement
Nice Gary!
Dan Gulberry
Forget the name but a couple of days back the polling mob that got the last election right put “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” Labour 8 points ahead.
Speaking of Bolt, Amy Remeikis called him a social commentator and entertainer in the live blog today.
Message from Sally McManus:
P.S. Also in Parliament, the Senate passed an amendment that could the reverse the cuts to penalty rates. The bill will go to the Lower House, and if it passes, 700,000 people could have their penalty rates restored.
Last time, we lost by one vote. Without John Alexander in the Parliament, this could actually get up.
It will all come down to George Christensen. If you wanted to send him a message on his Facebook page, it could make all the difference.
If he crosses the floor, hundreds of thousands of workers pay could be restored. He talks a good game at home in Mackay, but what will happen when he gets to Canberra?
Was Barnaby in QT today?
poroti
With the shambles that May is leading, I expect a new election long before it’s due in the UK. The longer she remains as PM, the more she farks things up the bigger the drubbing she can look forward to.
It’s going to be a jezzalanche.
Confessions @ #692 Monday, December 4th, 2017 – 6:31 pm
No, he’s not an MP (yet). He was in parliament, but wearing a visitor’s pass.
Dan G:
Sally McManus’ words that C@t quoted made me wonder if he was there seeing as she only mentions JA. My understanding is that Barnaby won’t be back this sitting term.
PvO on Christensen:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/george-christensens-antics-have-backfired/news-story/ed1a8546b75b6276adbfda533e612edf
I don’t think it matters a jot being in Bolt’s crosshairs as it were, seeing as he has little influence outside the reactionary echo chamber. I anything Christensen’s antics just show him to be more of a b blowhard than we originally thought.
And of course Christensen will probably have another chance soon to cave in and back down on penalty rates.
Really… ifanyone trusted Christensen to cross the floor,they need their heads read.
He is the quintessential boy who cried “Wolf!”
TAFE in SA trains about 70,000 people a year and it appears their education standards are a sham. Of the 16 randomly audited courses, 14 were so bad they cancelled the courses. Presumably about 80% of the courses not audited are also fake courses.
“A scathing report released by the Australian Skills Quality Authority on Monday found problems with all 16 of the courses randomly selected for audit. Enrolments have been suspended in 14 of the courses — four of which TAFE SA no longer offers.”
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/tafe-sa-boss-robin-murt-quits-as-hundreds-of-students-left-unaccreditted/news-story/b7d220034e1e6105cb8866edeb407073
Well spotted, by @devesmita , a pick up from across the road. Truffles made a real effort for his speech yesterday. Spot the difference between yesterday’s and his 2012 Michael Kirby lecture speech. there are reams more but here are the first 2 paragraphs.Spot the difference. Apart from a couple of nip and tucks he just rehashed an old speech.
2017
2012