BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

There were three new polls this week, from Essential Research, YouGov and ReachTEL, but I’m lacking a complete set of results for the latter, and am thus able to include only the first two in the weekly update of BludgerTrack. This is a bit unfortunate, as ReachTEL would have leavened the effects of two bad results for the Coalition. As a result, BludgerTrack records a lurch to Labor this week that may not be replicated next week, unless Newspoll is also bad for the Coalition (which, of course, it may very well be). Labor’s three gains on the seat projection consist of one each from Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Nothing new on leadership ratings. As always, see the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. BW:

    Baxendale of The OZ

    ‘Malcolm Turnbull has renewed his calls for the Senate to support the federal government’s proposed company tax cuts, after Donald Trump gained the support of the US Senate to cut America’s corporate tax rate to 20 per cent.

    Well, I’m sure following Donald Trump’s lead on this couldn’t possibly backfire on Turnbull in any way, what with how popular Trump is in Australia and all the positive international news coverage he has getting as of late.

  2. Rex’s gig is provocation. It has worked today, up to a point. Their aim is to split opinion and to turn attention onto Labor by inventing failure. The arguments posed are really utterly spurious, but that is not necessarily a weakness. In the absence of controversy, Rex hopes to foment the illusion of one. For mine, I doubt that R is a Green. I think they are a Lib decoy.

  3. Has there been any progress on checking whether the $40,000 free cash money Joyce got came from the NFF from his own Department’s gift of $60,000 to the NFF?

  4. antonbruckner11 @ #1043 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 6:34 pm

    Boerwar – When has the Labor Party been involved in the “left struggle”? They’ve spent the last 30 years as a centre-right party.

    Oh dear, yet another Greens re-write of history.
    In the time of my ALP membership, ALP members were at the forefront of the anti-Vietnam War movement, Anti-Apartheid movement and have been prominent in many movements since, such as Marriage Equality, Indigenous Rights etc.
    We also find time to campaign as a party that seeks to govern and make real changes.

  5. Bemused – the Labor Party also joined the neo-liberal consensus which included privatising everything in sight, including our energy system. Keating was the best Liberal Prime Minister we’ve ever had. I voted for that, for lack of an alternative.

  6. Asha Leu,
    Also, while I admit I haven’t yet read up on the Russian social media manipulation as much as I should, wasn’t it usually a case of trying to aid the Trump/Far-right cause by posing as the left? Ie. provoking closet racists by pretending to be extremist Black Rights Matter groups?

    Both. From what I have read, and I admit it is not everything, the modus operandi was to start out by mimicking the attitudes of those groups, then to create memes which went viral, thus creating new followers, and then to do an abrupt volte face and drop in a carefully-crafted paen to the Alt Right. Ultimately the voter was led to believe that the only candidate who had their interests at heart, via a convoluted path, was Donald Trump! Or, simply, the people who were likely to vote for Hillary Clinton were dissuaded from doing so, as the US has Voluntary Voting.

  7. Anything anyone says here will be taken down in writing – by the Government, by the L/NP, by ASIO, by agents of Turnbull, Abbott and Dutton, by other posters – to be used in evidence, a few years or a few hours later.

  8. ***
    Shaun Marsh has just rescued the Australian first innings. Is all forgiven?
    I forgive you.

    But nothing can save Handscomb from that awful technique. Back to the shield for him! I say.

  9. Massola, as usual, does PR for Turnbull and Brandis. Note the fortunate conjunction of this stuff and the Dastyari story. An amazing coincidence really!

    The Turnbull government will ban foreign donations to Australian political parties, introduce new laws targeting spies and foreign interference, toughen laws that ban disclosure of classified information and make it a crime to support foreign intelligence agencies.

    The sweeping package of counter-intelligence law changes, which follows a lengthy review led by Attorney-General George Brandis and which is designed to stop interference in Australia’s democratic institutions, will be released in the final week of Parliament for 2017.

    The crackdown on foreign spies, lobbyists and donations, details of which were foreshadowed in September, will be introduced just days after Fairfax Media revealed that Labor senator Sam Dastyari warned the Chinese Communist Party-linked Huang Xiangmo his phone was likely tapped by intelligence agencies.

    The new foreign interference laws will include a ban on foreign political donations and will enhance and reform the espionage and foreign interference related offences in the criminal code, and introduce a foreign influence transparency scheme, modelled in part on the United States’s foreign agents registration act.

  10. Sanders energised many a disaffected US youth. That Clinton was unable to attract them in enough numbers was due more to her poor campaign than Sanders getting in the way.

  11. Kristina Keneally out and about in Bennelong today, tweeted this (cue attack dog from Point Piper to unload…)

    This wonderful family of Armenian Australians, recently arrived refugees from Lebanon & Syria, insisted I join their picnic #ThisIsAustralia

  12. Well said Bemused. The Greens have a lot to offer our polity. But their self proclaimed purity only works against them.

  13. Hmmmm… I do believe that the Greens Party followers would rather not confront the ugly truth. I can understand that. After all, most people have terrible difficulty confronting a Dead Great Barrier Reef.
    Most Australians are in total denial about what is happening to the GBR.

  14. The Fairfax-Ipsos poll found Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is now the most popular choice as preferred Liberal Party leader for the first time; 32 per cent of voters preferred Ms Bishop, whereas 29 per cent picked Mr Turnbull. Tony Abbott (14 per cent), Peter Dutton (5 per cent) and Scott Morrison (4 per cent) were well back in the field.

    But among Coalition voters, 35 per cent backed Mr Turnbull as Liberal leader and 29 per cent backed Ms Bishop. Ms Bishop, Mr Morrison and Mr Dutton are most often discussed as potential Liberal Party leaders should Mr Turnbull be moved on.

    The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday, during another difficult week for the government. A Nationals backbench revolt on Thursday forced Mr Turnbull to reverse his longstanding opposition to a royal commission into the financial services sector.

    A thumping 71 per cent of voters surveyed in the Fairfax-Ipsos poll supported a royal commission into Australia’s banks, insurers and superannuation funds.

    For Labor, 25 per cent of respondents preferred Opposition Leader Bill Shorten as party leader, 23 per cent preferred his deputy, Tanya Plibersek, and 20 per cent supported former leadership candidate Anthony Albanese. Mr Shorten was the overwhelming choice for Labor leader among Labor voters and Ms Plibersek the strong favourite among Greens voters.

    The poll found Mr Turnbull’s approval rating remained unchanged at 42 per cent, while his disapproval rating rose 2 percentage points since September to 49 per cent. Mr Shorten’s approval rating rose by 2 percentage points to 38 per cent, while his disapproval remained steady at 52 per cent.

    Mr Turnbull’s commanding 17 percentage point lead (48-31) over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister has not changed since the September poll.

    The nationwide poll of 1401 people has a margin of error of 2.6 per cent.

  15. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 7:12 pm

    Sanders energised many a disaffected US youth. That Clinton was unable to attract them in enough numbers was due more to her poor campaign than Sanders getting in the way.’

    Long after Sanders had lost the primary race he continued with his bitter criticisms of Clinton. To Trump’s benefit.

  16. antonbruckner11 @ #1061 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    Bemused – the Labor Party also joined the neo-liberal consensus which included privatising everything in sight, including our energy system. Keating was the best Liberal Prime Minister we’ve ever had. I voted for that, for lack of an alternative.

    OK, and everyone in the ALP agreed with all that Keating did?
    I was amused by his antics in Parliament but horrified at how he screwed over the Labor Govt in Victoria, sold the Commonwealth Bank, sold Qantas etc.

    But it was the mad ideology of Kennettism that got the privatisation ball rolling in Victoria.

  17. I love this line from Bruce Guthrie!

    So much for Trump’s promise to drain the Washington swamp. To the contrary, he’s expanded it, fenced it and put in a diving board.


  18. The single most interesting stat in the Ipsos poll is that voters do not support changing leaders mid- stream. Jewellery Bishop may be disappointed. The very low popularity ratings of Dutton and Morrison are somewhat of a consolation.

  19. I thought Sanders and many (not all) of his high profile supporters got in behind Clinton reasonably well.

    Anyways – back to the BBC radio cricket coverage

  20. Shaun Marsh 110 no. Isn’t he lucky that the ICC insist on using a dodgy computer game to determine lbw. Crickets equivalent of Russian Roulette.

  21. A
    You don’t think that the thingie that predicts the ball (inserting one of GG’s fucking apostrophe) s trajectory is any good?

  22. Reminds me of the old song …

    Jewelry, Jewelry , Jewelry do ya love me?
    Jewelry, Jewelry , Jewelry do ya care?
    Jewelry, Jewelry are ya thinkin’ of me?
    Jewelry, Jewelry will ya still be there?

    Couple of Liberal leaders know that one .

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