Queensland election live: day two

Evolving coverage of the long and winding aftermath of Queensland election night.

Thursday morning

I’ve now taken Gaven, Cook and Burdekin off my watch list, the first two credited to Labor, the latter to the LNP (see below for further detail on Burdekin). That gets Labor to 45, which then becomes 46 if Margaret Strelow is right to have conceded defeat in Rockhampton, which she presumably is (more on that below also). To get to 47, Labor would need one out of the following: to retain Macalister, which will happen if independent Hetty Johnston can’t close a 3% gap against the LNP on preferences (which I would rate somewhat likely); Townsville, which is going down to the wire with Labor very slightly behind; and to be the beneficiary of Scott Emerson’s defeat in Maiwar, which seems somewhat more likely to go to the Greens. The ABC computer is predicting 48 for Labor, but I’m not sure why, because it only projects them with leads in 47.

The latest iteration of my results table looks as follows, with explanatory notes to follow:


The big news of the day was independent Margaret Strelow’s concession that she is not going to win, contrary to most back-of-envelope projections to this point. The kicker is apparently a very tight 60% flow of preferences from the LNP to the One Nation, which will cause the latter to overtake Strelow at the second last exclusion, by a fairly comfortable margin of around 400 votes on my reckoning. One Nation would need about 55% of Strelow, LNP and Greens preferences to overtake Labor, and evidently Strelow’s are favouring Labor enough that this is not going to happen. It seems a full preference count will be conducted today.


The count here seems unusually advanced, so there will presumably not be much change to the current results – which is good for independent Hetty Johnston, who has been getting smashed on postals. The key to the situation is the LNP’s 26.66% to 23.33% lead over Johnston, which she needs to close to poach the seat from Labor. The sources of the preferences will be the Greens on 6.54% and three minnows on 6.82% between them. Out of a three-way split of preferences, Johnston’s share will need to be about 25% higher than the LNP’s. Buried deep in a typically eyeroll-inducing report from the Courier-Mail is the news that Labor is very confident that this won’t happen.


Not much progress in the count yesterday, with 90 postal votes breaking about evenly, and Labor clawing back about 30 on rechecking of booth votes. I still have the LNP a few dozen votes ahead, but there are perhaps 2000 absent votes that are yet to be counted, which might turn up something for Labor – though they were in fact slightly favourable to the LNP in relative terms in 2015. The same goes for maybe 700 outstanding out-of-district pre-poll votes. Also to come are around 600 declared institution, polling day declaration and uncertain identity votes, whose idiosyncrasies cancelled each other out last time.


All that was added yesterday were 130 postals, which increased the Greens’ primary vote lead from 37 to 43. Still to come: about 1500 absent votes, which are historically strong for the Greens; about 400 out-of-district pre-polls; a trickle of postals and 200 or so odds and sods. With scrutineer talk of a strong flow of Greens preferences out of the 737 votes for independent Anita Diamond, Labor will need to do extremely well on the outstanding count to get their nose in front.


My projection that the LNP would pull away here is looking pretty good after 652 postals were added to the count yesterday, breaking 430-222 to the LNP if preferences behaved as before. I’m projecting a 637 vote LNP win, and while this is probably inflated by an overestimate of the number of outstanding postals, I’m no longer regarding it as in doubt.


Not really anything to follow here, as we won’t know the real situation until the preference distribution. However, it looks very much to me like One Nation’s narrow lead over Katter’s will be eliminated by Labor preferences, and that Katter’s will then ride home over LNP member Andrew Cripps on One Nation preferences. That’s unless Labor gets a strong flow of preferences from independent Peter Raffles and the Greens (3.04%), in which case Labor will close a 21.02% to 18.83% deficit against Katter’s, causing the latter to be eliminated in fourth place. In this case, there would need to be a Labor preference share around 30% higher than that to the KAP – plausible in the Greens’ case, but there doesn’t seem any reason to think preferences from Raffles, who wants statehood for north Queensland, will not go strongly to Katter. As top candidate on the ballot paper, some of Raffles’ vote would be of the donkey variety, and that vote won’t harm Katter’s.

Tuesday evening

The ECQ have unhelpfully pulled the notional two-party counts from their site. That makes it particularly difficult to track Burdekin, where Labor today picked up a bonus I hadn’t been factoring in: a strong pre-poll booth at Collinsville, which would have narrowed Labor’s two-party deficit from 366 to about 150. However, I’m still projecting the LNP to gain a couple of hundred votes on remaining postals.

Labor had a much better day today in Townsville, getting 35.3% of the primary vote from a batch of 635 postals, compared with 28.5% from the earlier batch of 885. The LNP’s 37.7% vote in the first batch fell to 33.2% in the second. Based on earlier reported preference flows, I’ve got Labor paring their deficit back from 78 to 31, and the projected losing margin down from 312 to 154 – and with perhaps 3000 voters yet to come, there’s a fairly substantial margin for error on that.

In Maiwar, the Greens are now 37 votes ahead of Labor on the primary vote, pending the unknown quantity of the preferences of independent Anita Diamond, who is on 734 votes. Kevin Bonham hears scrutineer talk that the Greens are getting a strong flow of preferences from those votes, to the extent that they should boost them by about 200. The two main outstanding categories of vote are absent votes, both of the pre-poll and polling day variety. If these favour the Greens like they did in 2015, I’m projecting the margin to increase by 135 votes. That does not factor in what will presumably be a few hundred outstanding postals, which have so far been fractionally more favourable for Labor.

Monday evening

A better day for Labor today, with three indicative two-party counts in seats where the ECQ had picked the wrong top two all bringing good news. In short:

Cook. A Labor-versus-One Nation throw records One Nation receiving 64% of preferences, when they need more like three quarters. The only remaining question is whether it will indeed be One Nation facing Labor in the final count, the other possibility being Katter’s Australian Party, who might get a better flow of preferences. However, there are likely to be only about 2500 votes left to be added to the count – in which case KAP would need to outpoll One Nation by nearly 10% of the outstanding vote, when they are closely matched at present.

Maiwar. Labor will clearly defeat the LNP’s Scott Emerson if it make it to the final count ahead of the Greens (I’m not actually clear in this case why the ECQ wasn’t conducted an LNP-Labor count all along). Presumably Labor preferences would go even more strongly to the Greens, to the outstanding question is who gets over the hump. The Greens currently have a lead of 19 votes, subject to the slight impact independent candidate Anita Diamond’s preferences will have.

Burdekin. Previously identified as a technical LNP gain, meaning a retain in a seat the redistribution had made notionally Labor. With a Labor-LNP throw now conducted, it has emerged that Labor has enjoyed a strong flow of One Nation preferences, and trails by only 34 votes. The seat is prompted me to add it to the summary chart below, where it constitutes a potential Labor to gain to compensate for the fact that I’ve now called Pumicestone for the LNP along with a detailed projection. The latter suggests today’s development is a false alarm for the LNP, who have a huge advantage on postals that is yet to flow through to the published two-party count.

Not featured in today’s two-party throws: LNP versus KAP in Hinchinbrook; Strelow versus Labor in Rockhampton; Johnston versus Labor in Macalister. Next to nothing happened today in Gaven and Townsville.

Sunday evening

Today’s counting has yielded two notable developments, both of them unfavourable to Labor. The LNP has roared back into the race in Townsville, performing very strongly at the city’s pre-poll centre and in the first half of postal votes. Postals have swung to the LNP by 8.9%, pre-polls by 6.8%, with the latter doubling in number since 2015. Some activity of the Defence Force that I’m not aware of may have had a bearing here.

Labor’s lead in Aspley has also withered from 2.2% to 0.6%, with postals swinging to the LNP here as well. However, that seems to most of the postals accounted for – most of the outstanding votes now are absents, which are likely to favour Labor.

I now have detailed projections for the three seats I am reading as straightforward Labor-versus-LNP contests, which are Gaven, Pumicestone and Townsville. These suggest Labor is in real trouble in Townsville and has little chance in Pumicestone, but will most likely win Gaven.

Not much has happened in the count today in Gaven, so what it says below is much the same as yesterday. In Pumicestone, Labor had a raw vote lead of 309 last night, but I was calculating this would become a 53-vote deficit when primary votes in the count were added on two-part. I then projected a 228 winning margin for the LNP on the final count, with the LNP to gain 341 on postals and 217 on absents. Once again though, postals have been bad for Labor, swinging against them 4.5%, such that I am now projecting the LNP to win by 535.

Including Gaven and Aspley, I can see a clear 44 seats for Labor; losses in Cook or Macalister I would still rate as unlikely, but they simply cannot be ruled out given the lack of hard information about preferences. That leaves them still needing an extra seat to reach the magic 47, for which their best chances are squeezing out the Greens in Maiwar or hanging on in Townsville.

Saturday evening

As I see it, in the race for 47 seats, Labor is on 43 and the LNP is on 38; there are at least two for Katter’s Australian Party, one for One Nation and one independent; and then there are eight seats that I’m treating as up in the air in one way or another. First up, there are eight seats that I’m treating as having changed hands. No doubt I’ll be proved wrong about some of them, but I figure you’ve got to start somewhere.

Aspley. Labor has held a stubborn lead of a bit over 2%, which doesn’t look like being overturned.

Redlands. Surprisingly, Labor’s only entirely clear gain from the LNP, off a swing of 6.3%.

Noosa. Independent Sandra Bolton seems to have surprised everybody by topping the primary vote in Noosa. Bolton appears to be exquisitely inoffensive, so there is no chance of the LNP chasing her down on preferences.

Nicklin. With the retirement of independent Peter Wellington, Nicklin returned home to the LNP.

Bundaberg. Gained by the LNP from Labor on a 1.2% swing, putting them 0.7% ahead, which will surely increase on late counting.

Mirani. This looks very much like a case of LNP dropping out and deciding it for One Nation over Labor on preferences. It may be within the realms of possibility that One Nation would tank so badly on late counting they finished third, in which case they might push the LNP ahead of Labor. But I’m putting that in the long shot column for now. For one thing, I’d think veteran Labor MP Jim Pearce would do okay on preferences.

Burdekin. In a seat held by the LNP, but made notionally Labor by the redistribution, this is a near three-way tie on the primary vote. If Labor drops out, the LNP wins. If One Nation drops out, I guess Labor has a chance (its preferences were directed to them). If the LNP drops out, One Nation wins. But the LNP does in fact have a slight lead, which will presumably increase on late counting. So for now I’m calling it an LNP gain from Labor.

Maiwar. Lost by the LNP, but not known whether to Labor or the Greens.

Then there are a further seven seats that I really don’t care to call, for one reason or another. I will be adding summaries of the situation in these electorates as I complete them. To start with though, here’s what I see as a summary of the situation:

UPDATE: For now, I have completed my analysis/projection of Gaven – the others I plan to do will have to wait until later today. The table below shows actual results in the first four columns, and my best attempt at projections in the last two columns. This requires estimates both of the number of outstanding votes, which involves at least as much art as science, and the two-party split. In the case of postals, for which about half the anticipated total have been counted, I have projected the results from the counted votes on to the uncounted. This is bad for Labor, as postal votes were weak for them to begin with, and appear to be recording no swing.

For other types of vote, it is assumed they will observe the same idiosyncrasies as in 2015. On this basis, Labor is projected to do well enough on absent votes to hold back the tide on postals, which largely reflects a strong Greens vote on absents in 2015.

For the other seats I’m listing as doubtful, just the briefest of rundowns for now:

Maiwar. The Greens have a raw 0.7% lead ahead of Labor in the race to finish second and, presumably, win the seat from the LNP on the preferences of the other. No absents or postals have been counted; the former should be good for the Greens, the latter bad, and there should be roughly equal numbers of each. So the Greens would seem favoured, but it’s certainly not done and dusted.

Pumicestone. Labor has a raw lead of 309 votes (0.9%) on the two-party count, but there won’t be much of it left when votes that have presently been counted only on the primary are added to two-party preferred. Postals should as usual favour the LNP, but Labor’s big hope is that the LNP tanked on postals in 2015. None of either have been counted yet.

Cook. With Labor on 39.3%, and a crush of others just shy of 20% (One Nation 18.9%, LNP 17.9%, Katter’s 17.6%), one of the latter will need a strong flow of preferences from the other two to make it home. I would expect that a Katter candidate in the final count would be most threatening to Labor, followed by One Nation, followed by the LNP.

Macalister. Labor faces a threat here from independent Hetty Johnston, but it’s a long shot — she trails the LNP 26.4% to 24.2% on the primary, which she needs to chase down with either preferences or an unusually strong late count performance for an independent.

Rockhampton. With Labor’s vote on only 31.8%, independent Margaret Strelow would seem assured of taking this if she finishes second. However, the LNP looks like bowing out before One Nation, who it had second on its how-to-vote card. So it would seem possible that Strelow will actually run third, in which case I imagine her preferences would decide the result for Labor. For all I know though, there may be a One Nation surprise lurking in wait here. Labor could wear a defeat at the hands of Strelow, a Palaszczuk-backed Labor preselection candidate who could potentially be lured back to the party, or perhaps made Speaker.

Thuringowa. The order here clearly runs Labor, LNP and One Nation about even on second, and Katter’s fourth, with the latter’s preferences presumably set to secure second place for One Nation. The question then arises as to whether LNP preferences go cleanly enough to One Nation to finish the job for them. UPDATE: They don’t – what I had thought was an ABC estimate is actually a real preference count that makes clear One Nation can’t win. So the only conceivable threat to Labor is the LNP, and that’s a long shot.

Hinchinbrook. The LNP incumbent here is on 30%, and then there’s a crush of One Nation, Katter’s and Labor around 20%. Provided Katter’s can stay in the count when the field is reduced to three, they would seem set to take the seat. Otherwise, the final count looks like being LNP versus One Nation, with Labor preferences saving the day for the LNP.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

600 comments on “Queensland election live: day two”

  1. Post updated. I’m favouring Labor to win Gaven, but it will be very hard for them in Pumicestone. Townsville would appear to be in play; I’ve taken Thuringowa off the watch list. I still think Labor should be okay in Aspley.

  2. I recommend checking a dictionary before complaining about a Green using the construct “Take office” .

    (Hint: It’s completely valid to Take office as a Member of Parliament”)

  3. I am not sure this is such a great result for Labor, in fact once you factor in the chaotic state of conservative politics it’s pretty underwhelming actually.

    Labor will end up with about a 36% primary vote. the Greens about 9.5% so even if we give another 1.5% to left leaning independents that means 53% of the electorate are voting for a right wing party of one flavour or another and Labor are falling in on preferences from an ethno -nationalist party I can’t see that being sustainable for very long.

  4. Luckycreed after just getting in last time with a minority, a inexperienced & under prepared ministry, backbench defections etc I’ll take this underwhelming win.

    BTW as an old Rocklea trots goer I can still remember Lucky Creed running around.

  5. Elaugaufein I have no problems with someone talking about an individual MP taking office but when you using the party name if you are talking about taking office I’ll expect you to be talking about winning government.

  6. Luckycreed
    Sort of. The LNP are significantly left of where the Liberal / National Coalition were socially because the Nats absolutely called the shots there , whereas they only most call the shots now (one LNP candidate even publicly bucked party line on decriminalisation of abortion and Nichols even publicly said he’d voted in favour of SSM and Newman has a publicly pro-position before that ).

    Queensland politics are a mess in that sense.

    It also looks like the Greens can actually nick Liberal votes Labor can’t to some extent in inner city seats , which suggests that there are some small liberals who will seriously ditch their party over certain issues.

    Which is a bigger mess.

    Also a chunk of PHON votes are protest votes not right wing votes which is why their preferences are going everywhere in some seats.

  7. Lucky Creed was champion pacer who won 24 races in a row, a then record.

    Not so sure about Luckycreed.

    Maybe not a great win for Labor but a win.

    Anna has seen off a Premier with a huge majority, probably ended a LOTO’s career, left the opposition in disarray and has three more years in Government.

    Three years ago Labor had what, seven seats in parliament?

    A win is a win, whether by 10 lengths or a nose.

  8. BW:
    Oh re: Labor being in power less since 92:

    This is cherry picked codswallop. Labor has been in power less than the Coalition for the entirety of Australia government history. For the first 2 Parliaments they were junior partners to the Protectionists. Then in Government for 1 term.
    Starting with the introduction of our “modern” system in 1910 –
    Labor were in power 11 through to 1992 (and 4 terms of that was Hawke).
    The Coalition – 22.
    Since 1992 Labor has been in Government: 3 times
    The Coalition: 6 times

    Or to put it another way: Exactly the same ratio.

    (Actually since 1992 , there’s a 100% correlation of sitting Labor governments changing leaders only getting 0-1 more terms. )

  9. As for whether this was a “good” result for Labor or not, I think it should also be pointed out just how much the main state paper, the Courier Mail, just hates Labor and Palazsczuk, and goes out of its way to beat up the state government as much as humanly possible.

  10. The Courier Mail only says nice things about Labor when in the grip of Green panic as a general rule (they’d probably go for axing a sitting overly liberal LNP leader too, but the mechanics of the LNP mean that’s unlikely , the party room keeps a tad leash and the conservatives are dominant in a way that costs the liberals the seats that would reduce the dominance. Even the very authoritarian Newman toed party line over his personal social beliefs. Nichols did buck on SSM but he read the wind well on that one).

    A centre – left state paper would probably get Labor an extra 1-2% as a result (a fully left paper would probably not be appealing to the centrists you’d be looking to swing and while it might slightly raise Labor’s 2PP it would probably do so at the cost of their primary).

  11. Also Greens preferences in Queensland are determined by a (run-off) ballot of branch members in that electorate (this is usually done at branch meetings rather than by the electronic system used for state wide decisions).

    This usually comes with a Yes / No to allowing the executive to change it based on reciprocal HTVs , that will pass easily unless the local branch executive has recently screwed the pooch in an impressive fashion.

  12. > “Is Ladbrokes seriously saying odds of ALP premier is $1.50. Sportsbet nearer the mark $1.01. A majority is a different matter.”

    Sadly, Ladbrokes won’t allow anyone to bet at those odds. They are just the frozen last odds from the now-suspended market.

  13. Okay. Hetty was running a split (Left / Right) HTV.

    She seems to have it in for the Labor candidate though. Who got dead last on her Right HTV and just above the LNP on her Left. The LNP candidate got 2 on her Right ticket by contrast.

    So maybe a HTV deal ? Greens got 5 on her Right and 2 on her Left.

    Politically Hetty looks like a Hinch style dog breakfast. Very Law & Order / think of the children , favours decriminalisation of abortion, good public transport.

    Ahh! Here we have it, she’s anti-Adani. That would have got her the Greens number 2 spot right there. Also pro-indigenous recognition.

    Also pro-small business but so is everyone.

    Lots of other vague feel good statements too.

  14. bemused – Hetty Johnston is basically a single-issue campaigner (child abuse) on which she is notably zealous (eg attacking Jim Henson’s artworks) and belongs on the Right. Beyond that I don’t have a clear impression of what her politics are.

  15. Yeah, I was going to say if I was in McAllister branch I would not have been inclined to put her 2nd (Adani or no). Law & Order / Community Expectations campaigners give me creepy authoritarian vibes and they tend to have terrible idea like mandatory minimum sentences and indefinite sentences.

    Edit – I dunno if Greens preferences will follow the HTV in McCallister. It’s a lowish vote and not a targeted.area so probably not a lot of boots on ground especially prepoll. I suspect Labor will get a fair swathe of the Green preferences as a result. She only needs a weakish flow to pip the LNP. It doesn’t look like many postal / prepoll / absents have been counted though and that could knock her out. I certainly don’t think she’ll get the 75%+ flow that a Labor candidate would get vs LNP.

  16. In other news, Pauline Hanson is completely delusional:

    PAULINE Hanson has claimed One Nation could still win up to 10 seats in the Queensland State Parliament as she defended her party’s performance in the state election.

    Speaking to Channel 9’s 60 Minutes, Senator Hanson said One Nation had done “exceptionally well” despite so far failing to secure a single seat.

    “What I’m hearing back from some of my people is there’s about 10 seats that we possibly have got a chance of picking up,” she said.

    “So the counting is not over until the last vote is counted.

    “Both the major political parties will be actually shaking in their boots.”


  17. LNP seem to be already looking past Tim Nicholls, with Deb Frecklington and Tim Mander favored to take over.

    “THE LNP’s party room is expected to hold a leadership ballot as early as this week following the party’s failure to win Government at Saturday’s election.

    The result was still too close to call last night but MPs were yesterday resigned to a likely three more years on the Oppostion benches.

    They told The Courier-Mail they expected a leadership changeover after Tim Nicholls failed in his attempt to take back power from Labor at the poll.

    Rather than clawing back some of the primary vote the LNP lost in 2015 – when it was turfed from office after just one term – the party’s primary vote went backwards.

    Frontbench MPs Scott Emerson, Ian Walker, Tracy Davis and Tarnya Smith were voted out and fellow frontbencher Andrew Cripps appeared poised to lose his seat with counting continuing today.

    Frontrunners to take on the Opposition Leader job include John-Paul Langbroek, Tim Mander, Deb Frecklington and David Crisafulli.

    Ms Frecklington and Mr Mander were firming up as favourites, but who would be leader and who would be deputy out of the pair remains unclear.

    “There needs to be a change,” one MP told The Courier-Mail.

    “We need new blood. If anything, the election result proved that we need to change direction.”

    They said they expected Mr Nicholls could resign as leader when a party room meeting is held, likely by the end of the week.

    He has not given any indication that was his intent, however.

    Mr Nicholls would not be drawn on the issue yesterday, insisting that the day after the election was not the time to talk about leadership.

    “I’m not going to talk about any of those sort of things today … we’re going to celebrate a great campaign that had a positive message,” he said when asked about his future.”


  18. Frecklington vs Mander will be one to watch for how the LNP plan to handle this going forward I think.

    Frecklington will see a turn towards trying to get the regions decisively and hence more Nationals style policies.

    I expect a more mixed approach if it’s Mander, probably trying to burnishing Law & Order cred too.

  19. I am surprised Labor and Antony Green are saying they expect a Labor majority . A Labor majority is possible but is not anywhere near certain. I think Labor with 46 and 1 Green is most likely. But it could easily be Labor 45.
    We will see a Labor Government, but this is not a strong result for Labor.

  20. John Goss, nom de plume or the real one, former MLA for Aspley? If the latter you are being partisan re ALP majority chances. Fair enough but be ready for disappointment as odds favour majority for ALP.

  21. Have you thought about what being reduced to seven seats really meant.

    It showed how feeble the rusted on Labor vote in QLD really is,.The scary thing is this might be the new high water mark for Labor.

    The deeper you dig the weaker the foundations of this victory look.53% and change voting for right wing parties, holding seats with contrarian preferences from a far right nationalist party. that is a house of cards for a centre left party.

  22. Qld election is a lesson on how inept the LNP is. It will be pretty hard to beat how a party goes from a record stonking majority to opposition then further backwards in the space of 3 elections. Then again having to suffer the odious Canavan during the ABC coverage os Saturday night does show that people of the LNP lack grace and manners as well as political acumen.

  23. The result is pretty bad for Labor. With a first term government, all the minor-party chaos, unpopularity of the federal govt, and so many marginal LNP seats in the south-east, the ALP should have had an easy win. Because they went early, they now only have 2 years and 11 months till the next election fixed for October 2020. By that time Shorten will be in power federally and there will likely be an anti-ALP backlash, plus you’d think the LNP might have a stronger leader. I suspect the ALP will also be looking at new leadership options.

  24. Stan Speaker
    I am the real! John Goss, and not related to the John Goss who was the former Liberal Member for Aspley or the late Wayne Goss, nor do I live in Queensland.
    Nor is my analysis partisan. I am simply treading in the footsteps of William Bowe and Ben Raue. And personally I am very disappointed at how poorly Queensland Labor has done.

  25. The silver lining for PHON is that they don’t end up with a bunch of crazies in the Queensland parliament who end up infighting and splitting. Plus the 14% is enough to get another senator at the next senate election (without PH on the ballot).

  26. Labor’s on the cusp of a majority after a hard fought campaign, where One Nation was expected to eat up seats and hold the balance of power. Where there has been a anti-major party sentiment, the Liberals have gone farther backwards.

    Win, win, win.

  27. Kevin Bonham @ #222 Sunday, November 26th, 2017 – 11:31 pm

    bemused – Hetty Johnston is basically a single-issue campaigner (child abuse) on which she is notably zealous (eg attacking Jim Henson’s artworks) and belongs on the Right. Beyond that I don’t have a clear impression of what her politics are.

    So really could be anywhere. That’s one good reason not to vote for such people.

  28. Being crazy doesn’t seem to hurt PHON. Malcom Roberts is as mad as a hatter and it’s a safe assumption he would have won Lockyer if they’d run him there on current numbers. He outdid the LNP candidate in Ipswich.

    The thing that hurts them is that every PHON candidate is crazy in different ways which leads to splits and weird transient obsessions like climate change or crappy bank inquiries that are a barely masked personal grudge , embarrassing the National co-chair who’s trying to do a proper inquiry.

  29. [quote] Have you thought about what being reduced to seven seats really meant.
    It showed how feeble the rusted on Labor vote in QLD really is,.The scary thing is this might be the new high water mark for Labor. [/quote]

    The very low number of seats won by Labor in 2012 reflects the distortions created by single-member electorate contests. Labor got 27% of the vote in 2012. They got 36% in 2017. That difference in primary vote share is significant but it is not as big as suggested by winning 47 or 48 seats compared with 7.

  30. Thought Anna did well.

    Minority govt losing members in various scandals, unpopular Adani hanging over, resurgent ONP.

    Timing of election now appears good, PHON losing new senator, pauline caught out by announcement, Adani support repudiated, firm stand on PHON.

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