Same-sex marriage survey: 61.6 yes, 38.4 no

And the winner is …

So there you have it. Below is a tool for exploring the results at divisional level according to a range of electoral and demographic criteria. Take your pick from the drop down menu, and you will get divisional “yes” votes recorded on the vertical axis, and their results for the relevant indicator on the vertical axis. Most of these are self-explanatory, with the exception of “One Nation support index”. This equals the division’s 2016 Senate vote for One Nation divided by the party’s overall Senate vote in that state, multiplied by 100. So an electorate will score 100 if its One Nation vote is exactly equal to the state average; it will score 200 if it’s double; 50 if it’s half; and so forth. This is to prevent the party’s across-the-board high results in Queensland from spoiling the effect. “Finished school” is measured as a percent of the 15-plus population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,326 comments on “Same-sex marriage survey: 61.6 yes, 38.4 no”

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  1. michaelkoziol: Tiernan Brady: “There should be no doubt about what the people have said in the loudest possible voice. They have said we will not discriminate against LGBTI people – they are equal. And no law can attempt to do the opposite of that. That’s not what Australia voted for.” (3)

  2. davrosz: NSW had the lowest Yes vote.
    Also has the most RWNJ radio jerks.

    Taking completely the wrong message out of the results. Muslim immigrants are definitely not a significant proportion of the 2GB audience.

  3. “I wonder if Abbott will claim a ‘moral victory’ because 51% of the electorate didn’t vote yes:

    61.6% of 79.5% = 49.0%.”

    I’m sure Abbott will be tempted to claim that because its a lie. There is no evidence that all the non-respondents were No voters. From William’s graphs there is no evidence of correlation between response rate and Yes/No vote in the electorate data. Many SSM proponents did not want the plebiscite and said they would not vote. So another big fat lie from Tony McLiarFace

  4. Gee Late Riser, you have risen several years late. The various versions of the Vote Compass show the population distribution on those issues. Whether the parties have really adjusted their policies to exploit the various quarters on the compass is harder to say. But as I said in the last post, Ive gotta go.

  5. 61.6% of 79.5% = 49.0% for ME.

    50.36% of 90.98% = 45.81% TPP for the Coalition at the last election.

    If 49% isn’t enough, neither is 45.81%

  6. Steven / Bw

    I doubt that the military stepping in and topping him would return Z to democracy any time soon.

    Me either.

    What seems to have bought it to a head is him trying to get rid of the older of the army officers who actually fought in the Bush War.

    They’ve always treated him with a bit of contempt. He was the political propaganda guy relatively safe in Mozambique.

  7. naamanzhou: Lots of talk about the high No vote in Western Sydney but…the ppl there, esp. migrant communities, will accept #marriageequality and support it sooner than you think. They’ll listen to their children & grandchildren, realise it doesn’t worsen their lives. People’s minds change.

  8. Jack Aranda @ #303 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 1:23 pm

    Gee Late Riser, you have risen several years late. The various versions of the Vote Compass show the population distribution on those issues. Whether the parties have really adjusted their policies to exploit the various quarters on the compass is harder to say. But as I said in the last post, Ive gotta go.

    OK. Thanks. I will look for this Vote Compass of which you speak.

  9. I suppose all those non-anglo ethnics in the western suburbs voted to protect the end of Western Civilisation as we know it! Abbott, Bernadi and co should be advocating more immigration to protect our values!

  10. LucyWicksMP: I’ll be reflecting and respecting the “yes” vote of Australians in Parliament about same sex marriage.

    My position hasn’t changed – while I voted “no” in the survey and explained why, I will honour the voice of the majority of our community by voting “yes” to change the law. pic.twitter.com/RzJi66Tcbj

  11. Best case scenario for Turncoat:

    Those people on his side who would die before they voted for marriage equality will use their objections to the attacks on free speech, etc, to support the Dean Smith bill, which will fail, and then they will abstain, rather than oppose the Dean Smith bill, leaving a clear passage through Parliament.

    Worst case scenario is that these characters try to insist on an Coalition bill with their bullshit incorporated. It won’t get up, but the brouhaha will destroy what is left of Turnbull’s standing with anyone, given how he assured everyone that the legislation will ‘sail through’ Parliament if the plebithingy got up.

    Of course, Turncoat could ensure the best case scenario by simply insisting on the Dean Smith bill and not countenancing alternatives. But he has not shown that degree of spine in the past and there is absolutely no reason to think that he will now.

  12. Don’t forget. This was a massive vote for equality. For Fairness. For decency.

    The no campaign threw political correctness, Safe Schools and anything else they could think of.

    They lost in a massive landslide with their best results in Sydney.

    The no campaign just lost not just one battle. They lost the war.

  13. Jack Aranda, Plaer One. Thanks for the tips.

    From a quick check, Vote Compass is encouraging but I’m not looking for how my leanings fit with established political groups. I am interested in how the population at large, per electorate, fits into the leanings of various political groups and how the various groups fit with each other. Vote Compass presumably has this information but it wants me to answer a rather large number of questions first, and then only to tell me how I fit in.

    Still looking. But thanks! Progress…

  14. I wonder if renunciations of UK Citizenship processing have got slower because some low level Civil Servant in the Visas/Immigration area of the Home office got inquisitive about the latest little bulge of them coming from Australia?

    The ‘Form RN’ includes this –

    6. Declaration

    Warning: To give false information on this form knowingly or recklessly is a criminal offence punishable with up to 3 months’ imprisonment or a fine not exceeding £5000 or both (Section 46(1) of the British Nationality Act 1981 as amended).

    I, (full name in BLOCK LETTERS) _______________________________________

    declare that to the best of my knowledge and belief the details given on this form are true.

    Maybe they’ve decided they should check them in light of the fact lots of them have already signed the similar Australian Statutory Declarations that have proved to be untrue.

    😀

  15. Jackol @ #234 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 12:22 pm

    Despite the popular disparagement of Queensland and Queenslanders (especially on this blog) there’s really not much evidence that we are much different from the other eastern states.

    Um. PHON? Katter?

    And how about that accelerating land clearing with fairly low chance that the Queensland government will actually do anything about it (I’m sure the ALP will give it a red hot go when they get the opportunity, but the chances of them having a solid majority at the coming election seems low at the moment unless PHON has actually blown itself up with the Anning fiasco)…

    The wilful environmental vandalism of a large chunk of Queenslanders (not all, by any means, but still a large and influential collective voice) is just astonishing to me and seems quite distinct from the let-‘er-rip fringe found everywhere else in Australia.

    Jackol

    Labor has actually tried to tighten the land clearing laws during this last term of parliament but was prevented from doing so essentially by the two KAP MPs who nevertheless supported the Labor Government on confidence and supply.

    I think the PHON factor will be much diminished when this election is over. I think that was always going to be the case but the disintegration of the PHON campaign will magnify it. Now that Queenslanders have seen PHON fragment TWICE, once when they won their swag of seats in Parliament a few years ago and now during this campaign I think even the most inattentive voters will get it.

  16. TPOF:

    Worst case scenario is that these characters try to insist on an Coalition bill with their bullshit incorporated. It won’t get up, but the brouhaha will destroy what is left of Turnbull’s standing with anyone, given how he assured everyone that the legislation will ‘sail through’ Parliament if the plebithingy got up.

    Isn’t that the best case scenario, in the long run?

    I thought it was bold/stupid to declare that marriage quality will happen “before Christmas”, given the mess that is his party, and parliament, at the moment.

  17. Two comments on the survey outcome:

    1. With Turnbull very publicly taking ownership of the ‘yes’ vote, there is very little chance of Labor suffering a backlash at the next election from opponents of SSM.

    2. The ACL, Shelton and fellow travellers have done a great disservice to Christians generally, by falsely claiming to represent a diverse group of people. Many churches will say “Thanks for nothing Lyle”.

  18. lizzie @ #168 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 7:52 am

    Antony Green‏Verified account @AntonyGreenABC · 2h2 hours ago

    Who is this ABS upstart? It is un-Australian for someone other than me to call an Australian election result, even if this one is a survey.

    Surely this is just tardiness on Antony’s part.

    After all he’s had the opportunity to make a call since the close of voting.

    Polling suggested that the “NO” support was about 35% and the ABS release showed a participation of nearly 80%, so if every “NO” supporter voted they would not have exceeded the “YES” vote.

  19. Bushfire, Itza, did you read the whole of Murphy’s article? She may say it’s an opportunity for the Coalists, but she does seem to have her doubts as to whether they will rise to it.

    Yeah, I read it all,but the very fact that Murphy is even contemplating another reset, a miraculous phoenix-like rise from the ashes for her Handsome Prince, is enough for me.

    Turnbull didn’t campaign. Shorten did. So where does Murphy say “Now is Bill Shorten’s chance to capitalize on his brilliant campaigning efforts to get ‘Yes’ over the line”?

    She doesn’t. She gives all the political potential that might arise from this solely to Turnbull.

    It shows the way her mind is wired.

  20. TPOF – I think you mean “Those people on his side who would die before they voted for marriage equality will use their objections to the attacks on free speech, etc, to support the Dean Smith James Paterson bill…”

  21. Mr Newbie @ #318 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 2:55 pm

    TPOF:

    Worst case scenario is that these characters try to insist on an Coalition bill with their bullshit incorporated. It won’t get up, but the brouhaha will destroy what is left of Turnbull’s standing with anyone, given how he assured everyone that the legislation will ‘sail through’ Parliament if the plebithingy got up.

    Isn’t that the best case scenario, in the long run?

    I thought it was bold/stupid to declare that marriage quality will happen “before Christmas”, given the mess that is his party, and parliament, at the moment.

    Not for Trumble.

  22. guytaur: “The no campaign threw political correctness, Safe Schools and anything else they could think of. They lost in a massive landslide with their best results in Sydney. The no campaign just lost not just one battle. They lost the war.”

    guytaur, you might be surprised that I completely agree with you. They aren’t admitting it, but this must be a devastating experience for the conservatives within and outside the Coalition. They ran a campaign based on the idea that voting No was a way for disgruntled, old-fashioned conservatives to stand up and scream out “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.”

    Well, the disgruntled conservative constituency, such as it is, has utterly failed to step up. It would appear that the most committed group of social conservatives in Australia is that of newly-arrived non-European migrants. The thesis that the reason Turnbull was increasingly unpopular because he was insufficiently conservative has taken a major battering. It would appear that his unpopularity is based on a perception of generally poor performance, and that replacing him with Abbott or Dutton or whoever isn’t going to fix anything and could make things far worse.

  23. BiGD

    Who is this ABS upstart?

    I was out so I didn’t see the announcement.

    Who from the ABS actually announced the result?

    Did Kalaish do it or did he leave it to Jon Palmer?

  24. Yeah, any talk about Trumble capitalising on anything is just fanciful. It would be pure dumb luck if it happened in the face of the bastard’s demonstrated incompetence.

    And he has to do this in the same week that his remaining Dual Nats are going to come to light? Fuggedaboutit! There is far more chance of Trumble having more MPs resign like JA and so lose the confidence of the house than there is of him standing triumphant with a rainbow flag the master of all he surveys.

    There isn’t a parallel universe where Brian Trumble is a confident competent respected leader of a local Lions Club, let alone a nation. But Murphy is damn well going to keep looking for it.

  25. MB

    I am not surprised. You are from Tasmania. You saw what happened when the right lost the battle to continue discrimination there. In fact one of the complaints the no campaign used in the national debate was that Tasmania has equality laws.

  26. Must have been an interesting confrontation:

    Bishop takes aim at Keneally after awkward campaign run-in
    BATTLE FOR BENNELONG KRISTINA Keneally embarked on a meet-and-greet only to find opponent John Alexander was already there — and was flanked by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop
    (DT headline, currently paywalled)

  27. citizen @ #319 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 1:56 pm

    1. With Turnbull very publicly taking ownership of the ‘yes’ vote, there is very little chance of Labor suffering a backlash at the next election from opponents of SSM.

    I’m more concerned about the opposite effect. Now that the marriage equality issue has been dealt with (assuming Turnbull can keep Parliament under control long enough to get a halfway-sane piece of legislation through), supporters of SSM who abandoned the Coalition for being hopelessly out of touch may feel that now it’s okay to start coming back. Wouldn’t be surprised if Labor’s recent polling momentum ends up blunted or even reversed by this outcome.

    Politics-wise, I think the Coalition dragging its heels and digging in against marriage equality was actually beneficial to Labor. You don’t earn backlash by supporting something that 60+% of the population supports. Quite the contrary, I’d say.

    Now Labor can no longer say “vote for us, we’re the party of fairness and equality”. Or rather, they can say that, but it’s lost its imperative context.

  28. ItzaDream @ #256 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 2:13 pm

    Speaking of thanks, I want to thank PB (I’m pretty new here) for the quality and generosity of the debate on ME , ruffled feathers and all, mine too, sorry, and also on s.44, from which I’ve learnt so much. I must do the roof. If you hear a THUMP, it’s me. (The first person I saw die in Intensive Care was from a domestic roof fall.) MOH here, never fear.

    Fer Chrissakes take yer fone wif yer set to call an ambulance. Doan youse Ozzie folk got no sense at all. 😵😵

  29. How do we treat the losers? With the understanding they don’t extend to the rest of us. And while they furiously lament the result, we should remember another old truth about Australia: change is fought hard here but when it comes we settle down with change quickly.

    In a few months, we will be faintly puzzled that same-sex marriage was the subject of such prolonged, expensive and painful contest. It has been a terrible time for many in the LGBTI community – young and old – in the last few months. But it has been this too: a fresh time for coming out.

    What a parade Australia has seen of citizens making the most politically effective argument of all: I’m one too. And then most of the rest of the country took a ballot paper to a letterbox to make it clear that’s just fine by them.

    I’m off to celebrate a big day in a wonderful, at times perplexing, country. My country more than ever. Here’s a last truth about this place we demonstrated today: we always come good in the end.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/15/ive-fallen-in-love-with-my-country-all-over-again-same-sex-marriage-david-marr?CMP=share_btn_tw

  30. More bad news for the hard right. Molan not getting in.

    AndrewBrownAU: #BEAKING: The High Court has cleared NSW Liberal Hollie Hughes to replace Fiona Nash in the Senate #auspol

  31. janeenorman: Liberal Senator Dean Smith is expected to introduce his same-sex marriage bill within the next hour (despite attempts by some Nationals to delay process) #auspol

  32. Be wary of conservatives who introduce social legislation.

    Don Dunstan, labor SA, initially tried to introduced laws decriminalising homosexuality for men.
    Following the murder of George Duncan in 1972, Murray Hill, a conservative introduced a bill.

    n 1972 after the brutal murder of University of Adelaide law lecturer Dr George Duncan at a known gay beat at the hands of alleged police officers, and the significant public outrage that followed, Hill proceeded to introduce a private member’s bill, with implicit support from the Labor Party, on 26 July 1972 to amend the Criminal Law Consolidation Act that criminalised homosexuality, thus being the first serious attempt to decriminalise homosexuality in Australia.

    While Hill’s amendment was assented to on 9 November 1972, a further amendment weakened it to only allow a legal defense for homosexual acts committed in private.
    This was a limited reform in that it retained the homosexuality offences, simply offered a narrow exception and was not intended to achieve legal parity of treatment, with Hill maintaining that homosexuality should not receive social approval.

    In 1975, South Australia (under labor) went further with the Criminal Law (Sexual Offences) Amendment Act 1975 and became the first state or territory to offer equality under criminal law, repealing homosexual offences and providing an equal age of consent for sexual intercourse at 17 years of age.

    May get same with turnbulls and the lnp ME bill, a limited bill that pays lip service and have to wait until a labor government is in to get a proper equality bill.

  33. abcnewsCanberra: #BREAKING: The High Court has found Liberal Hollie Hughes is not eligible to replace the Nationals Fiona Nash in the senate

  34. The other day Bishop was campaigning in Queensland. Today she is in Bennelong with Alexander.
    What is her job again?

    Foreign affairs, but JA is still a pom as far as we know and other lnp mps have different nationalities, probs some of them in Qld, so seems to be within her remit

  35. ABC has got it wrong. Expect apology soon.
    workmanalice: Meanwhile, the High Court has ruled NSW Liberal Hollie Hughes can replace former Nationals deputy Fiona Nash in the Senate. #auspol

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