So there you have it. Below is a tool for exploring the results at divisional level according to a range of electoral and demographic criteria. Take your pick from the drop down menu, and you will get divisional “yes” votes recorded on the vertical axis, and their results for the relevant indicator on the vertical axis. Most of these are self-explanatory, with the exception of “One Nation support index”. This equals the division’s 2016 Senate vote for One Nation divided by the party’s overall Senate vote in that state, multiplied by 100. So an electorate will score 100 if its One Nation vote is exactly equal to the state average; it will score 200 if it’s double; 50 if it’s half; and so forth. This is to prevent the party’s across-the-board high results in Queensland from spoiling the effect. “Finished school” is measured as a percent of the 15-plus population.
There are different sorts of ‘conservative’.
Sydney’s lower North Shore and also places like Wentworth (Turnbull’s electorate, Sydney’s inner East) have lots of voters who are doing very well financially but who are socially liberal (with a very small ‘l’). They are part of the dreaded ‘inner city elites’ so behated of the Right. However, they mostly vote for their money. They returned a high ‘Yes’ vote. There is also a large Chinese component here in North Sydney, also in Bennelong, doing well financially, socially conservative and possibly ‘natural’ Liberal voters.
Places like Sydney’s North West and Cook (outer, South, centred on Cronulla, Scott M’s electorate) are strongly ‘aspirational’, socially conservative, doing well financially or working towards it. They see themselves as ‘mainstream Australians’, part of the ‘silent majority’ and, encouraged by Howard, ‘battlers’.
Finally, you’ve got recent immigrants, more religious than the general population, more socially conservative but battling financially – part of the real battlers. Few would see their interests aligning with those of big business. They voted ‘No’ this time but will vote for Labor Federally.
Well done to all those who campaigned for this long overdue correction of one of our least just laws. However the job is only half done until the legislation is passed. With this clear cut result, there is no excuse not to introduce it.
Tony Abbott shamefully said that even a 40% result would be a “moral victory” for No. With Yes at 61.6% and No at 38.4%, this is a clear moral defeat for No, even given Tony Abbott’s very dubious definition of success.
Another telling fact from William’s most useful graph, is the lack of any significant skew in the response rate versus Yes vote. So it is NOT the case that the rest of the electorate would have voted No. No doubt, that will be the Abbottista’s next lie.
The interesting thing about where the ‘no’ votes came from is that the IPA driven arguments in favour of the freedom to discriminate appear to have had no serious impact.
Put another way, if Bernardi and his fellow travellers thought that this obscene waste of public money would be a good platform to enliven support from Liberals who think the party is too centrist, they will not be happy.
Just very different migrant demographics.
“Some of today’s glee rests in the fact that the “no” campaign decided the way the game would be played, and wrote the rules to suit themselves, but the “yes” campaign still won.”
Yup. Sit and spin babies. 🙂
Ides of March @ #193 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 12:29 pm
Indeed, Kenny’s article is rubbish, retro claiming justification for an appalling process that Turbull had to promise to agree with to get to sit in the big chair and swivel round on, in ever increasing circles of insincerity.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/gay-marriage-yes-vote-a-win-for-justice-and-a-win-for-malcolm-turnbull-20171113-gzkkcs.html
ratsak: “If (and it’s a massive if of which I have seen no evidence for and plenty against) the Hindu community aren’t in Labor’s bloc then they aren’t making much of an impact.”
What evidence have you seen for the Hindu community tending towards being pro-Labor? I’m not arguing, I’m genuinely interested?
I see that Bennelong voted line-ball “No”: 50.2 -49.8 on an 81% turnout.
https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/results/nsw.html
Probably has no implications for the coming by-election.
“Mark Kenny calling it a win for Turnbull.”
Yes, I wonder what Penny Wong, and many other Labor and Greens, who were personally abused during this campaign, thought of that breathtaking reinvention of history?
Win for Turnbull?
Ain’t over till the legislation passes and be sure that the hard line opponents will have a plan to disrupt and delay and amend.
Turnbull says it will be don by Christmas. Abbott et al will say “lets see about that.”
Interesting that even “conservative” Queensland, with 63% Yes, voted above the national average.
Looks like a scripting error with the chart (in Chrome at least):
Whoever thought Mark Kenny was turning his back on his Handsome Prince, think again:
Only slightly encouraging was that Kenny turned Turnbull’s “win” into a sigh of “relief” (as in “At east I haven’t totally fucked it up this time”) within the above 54 words.
Of course, for the Australian taxpayer, it’s a loss – of $122 million actually – all because the supposed leader of the nation, it’s Prime Minister, didn’t have the courage to stand up to some old right-wing relics sitting up the back of the party room mumbling about “freedom”.
Yes, that’s right: it cost us $122 million because Turnbull couldn’t look Tony Abbott in the eye.
Think about that next time you read one of the Canberra sycophants calling this exercise in piss-weakery a “win”.
“Turnbull says it will be done by Christmas. Abbott et al will say “lets see about that.”
Perhaps I’m over-optimistic, but I predict it will be a short and decisive process, with the Dean Smith bill getting through with minimal changes. There are more than enough Coalition members determined to vote for the bill in each house for it to get through.
Also, the case of the opponents has been fatally weakened by the strong Yes vote in most of their electorates. I haven’t checked thoroughly, but I think I’m right in saying that only four Coalition-held seats (Maranoa, Banks, Reid and Bennelong) had majority No votes., and that the members for two of these seats are supporters of SSM?
lizzie @ #201 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 12:41 pm
“Hey, I know you, you’re the guy who lied on the Stat Dec right? ”
(great photo, lots to see)
The stark nature of Western Sydney’s landslide NO vote is worthy of more analysis. Yes the religious conservatism of recent migrants is the overwhelming obvious cohort.
But also consider the Trump/Brexit left behinders, white, male, angry, racist and sexist. I know some of these from first hand experience in the Greater West – read the Daily TurdBurgler, listen to 2GB, watch the NRL footy show, don’t like pooftahs.
This cohort Votes Liberal/PHoN/protest and are the real threat to the broader progressive cause.
Credit where it is due. Mr Rolex Goodenough says he will vote according to the wishes of his electorate.
That’s one thing , but which bill will he support? He was talking at the weekend about the Smith bill lacking “protections”.
I wonder if Abbott will claim a ‘moral victory’ because 51% of the electorate didn’t vote yes:
61.6% of 79.5% = 49.0%.
On that basis, Labor had a ‘moral victory’ in the 2016 Fedaral election (Liberal 2PP 50.4, turnout 91%, informal rate 5%).
Socrates @ #212 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 11:51 am
Despite the popular disparagement of Queensland and Queenslanders (especially on this blog) there’s really not much evidence that we are much different from the other eastern states. Such differences as do exist are pretty well explained by patterns of disadvantage, employment and even climate. Pleased to see my electorate (Griffith) coming in 8th in the nationa on 76.6%.
I used to be opposed to the postal survey (pollies – just do your job!) but it seems to be now that the demonstrated strong public approval for marriage equality is a real gift to gays, and much more so than a mere parliamentary majority.
Illustrates a point I made a bit earlier:
Murphy wets her pants. Now’s Turnbull’s Big Chance to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat:
Go you good thing, Malcolm! Show ’em who’s boss! Nirvana is just around the corner! It’s a reset, or a reboot, or a second coming, or… oh, I dunno.
The areas with high Hindu communities are also almost all safe Labor seats. Parramatta has probably the largest Indian community and is closest to a marginal (>7%). Owens on 46.7% is hardly likely to struggle next election. In 2016 there was a 20% others vote. There was one Indian independent who picked up 2.5%. There were also a Christian Democrat, Liberal Democrat, and Family First candidate who picked up 9.2%. They are hardly likely to be the sort of candidates to pick up Hindu votes. Of the 20% of the others the Libs picked up less than the total of those three candidates so it’s a pretty fair bet the bulk of the voters for the Indian candidate went to Labor on prefs. Now maybe the Hindus were a big part of the Libs 34%, but I don’t have any evidence to suggest it. And even if they are then that community has a loooooooong way to go before their votes become determinative.
It’s only circumstantial evidence obviously, but if you have something to counter I’d be genuinely interested.
Proud to be living in Grayndler!
Sprocket if the Trump white working class effect was in evidence wouldn’t regional areas have a higher no vote than they did?
Steve777 @ #220 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 1:00 pm
That’s exactly the extension that was the impurity in the chaste abstention logic. Not voting gets coupled into the No votes in that it augments to not-Yes votes.
I’m reminded of my young gay arab friend. The one who passed the form to his dad and his dad voted no for him.
He lives in western Sydney
On this we can agree. The only questions are:
1. Will Trumble stick his neck out to push it through, or will the moderates (sic) just ram it through despite him. (I’m on the latter)
2. How much damage will Trumble sustain whichever way he goes? (lots)
Bushfire Bill @ #223 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 1:08 pm
And especially now that rabbity little upstart from the Land Of the Wrong White Cloud has been elbowed out of the way, I’m so butch, me and my jacket.
ElysseMorgan: The Bakers Assoc. of Australia tells me they don’t want to be involved in the debate. “What baker in their right mind would not bake someone a cake?” #auspol #MarriageEquality
We at my hacienda are well pleased with the SSM overall “vote”.
The less than empathic members of the government will continue to behave in their abysmal fashion.
Breaking news. Email arrives to inform me the my BankSA account has been suspended.. Disaster ❗
I really, truly would like to know if my fellows have a feel for or knowledge of how a postal (non binding) survey asking whether the Australian Government should deal with refugees in accordance with UN and international treaties.
Similarly whether our military should be dropping bombs on civilians in foreign neighbourhoods.
These and other questions could be combined.
Good afternoon to all. 💤💤💤💤
JustinTrudeau: Love wins in Australia! Thrilled to hear Australians have voted in favour of legalizing same-sex marriage. #MarriageEquality
Um. PHON? Katter?
And how about that accelerating land clearing with fairly low chance that the Queensland government will actually do anything about it (I’m sure the ALP will give it a red hot go when they get the opportunity, but the chances of them having a solid majority at the coming election seems low at the moment unless PHON has actually blown itself up with the Anning fiasco)…
The wilful environmental vandalism of a large chunk of Queenslanders (not all, by any means, but still a large and influential collective voice) is just astonishing to me and seems quite distinct from the let-‘er-rip fringe found everywhere else in Australia.
Muskiemp
Thanks for posting that table.
Wow my seat is numero uno, Sydney 83.7% yes!
ratsak @ #229 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 1:14 pm
Hear, hear Ratsak.
My 2 cents, $122 million has got us to where opinion polls have been telling these numbskulls what everyone knows. The CPG will extol Trumble’s well planned win. What will the RWNJ do, really is the question as the moderates haven’t the balls to do what you suggest
Today’s Crikey
Abbott wont resign. He will be kicked out or dragged out kicking and screaming.
ItzaDream
Abbott is now a NObody.
“The stark nature of Western Sydney’s landslide NO vote is worthy of more analysis. Yes the religious conservatism of recent migrants is the overwhelming obvious cohort.
But also consider the Trump/Brexit left behinders, white, male, angry, racist and sexist. I know some of these from first hand experience in the Greater West – read the Daily TurdBurgler, listen to 2GB, watch the NRL footy show, don’t like pooftahs.
This cohort Votes Liberal/PHoN/protest and are the real threat to the broader progressive cause.”
If that were the case, I would expect Lindsay to have voted no.
I actually see more blowback against Lib/Nat held seats with high yes votes and no voting members than Western Sydney no voting Labor held yes voting member seats.
Ie larger impact in Warringah, Menzies, (whatever seats Dutton and Christensen hold)
Bushfire, Itza, did you read the whole of Murphy’s article? She may say it’s an opportunity for the Coalists, but she does seem to have her doubts as to whether they will rise to it. Eg,
“If all that sounds fragile, and uncertain, it is. Proceeding on those parameters requires reason and functionality, and in Canberra, we’ve almost forgotten what that looks like.”
I quite agree with her – it’s an opportunity for all of them to show that they can pull together and remember what the party name means. I also think they’ll blow it!
And Hasties in Canning, Goodenough in Moorre etc
ItzaDream @ #201 Wednesday, November 15th, 2017 – 1:24 pm
Come now. Be fair. He still has his pride. 😵
Again the Howard Battlers is a myth. Western Sydney is Labor. There was a bit of a backlash in 96 but the only Western Sydney seats that moved were Lindsay, Parramatta and Macathur, and along with the rest of the country 2013 was awful for Labor but again they only lost Banks, Lindsay and Reid (which had absorbed Lowe so moved East).
Lindsay and Macarthur were quite different animals to Western Sydney. But they are becoming more like your McMahons and Fowlers etc with growing immigrant communities. The only way the Coalition will get these seats back short of a distribution to more rural areas will be when Labor is landslide loss on the nose. And even then it’s debatable. The rest of the Western Sydney from say Strathfield out to St Marys and from Blacktown down to Campbelltown is rock solid ALP territory. Talk of the ALP losing these seats is as fanciful as thinking Doctor’s wives will deliver Mackellar to the Greens.
The battleground isn’t in Western Sydney except the ALP will be looking to put Banks and Reid solidly back in the column. It’s extremely likely they will do so next election and lock them down for the foreseeable future. Sydney will be Red from the Western edge of Wentworth out to the Blue Mountains south of the Parramatta River and from Greenway in the North to Macarthur in the South West of Mitchell and Hughes. The only threat to that is maybe a Green when Plibers or Albo retires.
The seats that will decide government are elsewhere and the Libs won’t waste many resources on Sydney.
Ides: “I actually see more blowback against Lib/Nat held seats with high yes votes and no voting members than Western Sydney no voting Labor held yes voting member seats.”
I feel some intuitive agreement with that. But is it the sophisticated-sociologically-informed part of my intutition, or the wishful thinking part. I fear it may be the latter.
Interesting comment. Do we have any knowledge of what the attitude of traditional aboriginal communities was towards homosexual/lesbian orientations prior to the coming of the white man with his alien religious beliefs?
William (or anyone)
What is on the horizontal axis, please?
At current trends, Warringah and Mackellar are more likely to end up with Green members than Labor. But I digress, it wont happen. Better shot is Grayndler when Albo retires.
(Or maybe Richmond on the North Coast of nsw)
Reid, Banks, Barton (on a bad night for Labor) Macquaire, Lindsay, Macarthur are the only seats i can think of in Sydney that really change. I think Banks is trending away from Labor