Same-sex marriage survey: 61.6 yes, 38.4 no

And the winner is …

So there you have it. Below is a tool for exploring the results at divisional level according to a range of electoral and demographic criteria. Take your pick from the drop down menu, and you will get divisional “yes” votes recorded on the vertical axis, and their results for the relevant indicator on the vertical axis. Most of these are self-explanatory, with the exception of “One Nation support index”. This equals the division’s 2016 Senate vote for One Nation divided by the party’s overall Senate vote in that state, multiplied by 100. So an electorate will score 100 if its One Nation vote is exactly equal to the state average; it will score 200 if it’s double; 50 if it’s half; and so forth. This is to prevent the party’s across-the-board high results in Queensland from spoiling the effect. “Finished school” is measured as a percent of the 15-plus population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,326 comments on “Same-sex marriage survey: 61.6 yes, 38.4 no”

  1. Even tho Kiwis will regularly (always?) support any team that plays against Australia, I would still like to express my support for the all whites vs Peru today.

  2. The Eastern Suburbs has KFC, so I don’t know what that map is showing (Red Rooster maybe).

    But you can’t get bacon on your Burger at the KFC on Canterbury Rd Bankstown (grrrrrrr).

  3. If Justine Keay is disqualified in Braddon, Jacqui Lambie could run for this Reps seat. She would probably romp it in.

    Also, if all 3 of the JLN ticket candidates are disqualified or decline to accept the position, the HC may order that the Tasmanian Governor via te State Parliament fill the vacancy as a casual one, wherby JLN could nominate Jacqui Lambie.

    I somehow suspect that the chances of another PHoN loon sneaking in are remote.

  4. **In disturbing news there is an eerie corelation between No voting electorates in Western Sydney and their proximity to KFC outlets!**
    Do you have one of those for skimpy bars?

  5. rosieslewis: Greens seek new legal advice on Andrew Bartlett following Hughes ruling theaustralian.com.au/national-affai… #auspol @australian

    At least the Greens don’t wait aroound

  6. BK

    I listened to Smith being interviewed on RN. Very impressed.He sounded so “unpolitician” .What a joy to hear someone offering clear reasons and straight answers .’Twas bliss to be spared the usual nothingness of wall to wall “talking points”,weasel words,spin and non answers..

  7. meher baba:

    There are umpteen Arabic cakeshops in that area, many run by devout Muslims. There might be some highly unorthodox way of reading the canons and teachings of Islam that suggests that that religion is tolerant of homosexuality, but it wouldn’t be one for which you’d find much support among practising Muslims.
    So these Muslim cake shop owners are going to be extremely reluctant (to say the least) to bake wedding cakes for same sex marriages. And the same applies to Christians and others.

    So what I’m asking is this. Will it be necessary to seek out these business owners and drag them through quasi-legal tribunals and courts to compel them to change their ways, even though this would conflict with these deeply-held views?

    Or, in the interests of tolerance, and given that there will be many dozens of cake shop owners who will be delighted to bake cakes for same sex marriages, could we just all agree to live and let live?

    Intolerance should not be tolerated.

    Your post also ignores that there are gay Muslim and Christian couples, too, who might want their ‘cake’ baked at a Muslim/Christian-owned bakery. Why should they be OK with discriminated against?

    By your reasoning, it should be OK for a white supremacist-owned bakery to refuse to make a wedding cake for a black couple wanting to get married, because it would make the bakers feel uncomfortable.

    Such a stupid argument.

  8. The absence of the Reactionary Branch of the LNP from the Senate says it all for me. The plebiscite was intended to prevent the passage of marriage equality; to further entrench prejudice; to give them another win over those they so openly despise.

    The Reactionary Branch have been nationally rejected but they cannot yet bring themselves to accept it. They have taken to sulking and festering.

    This should be a moment of reconciliation. Instead, by their absence, the Reactionaries have also made this a moment where the win/lose game is still being acted out. They have lost their purchase on Australian politics. They will be plotting to reinstate it.

  9. antonbruckner:

    A lot of people who voted yes and are hearing Turnbull talking about passing a bill “by Christmas” will be going WTF. They thought this was over.

    Agreed.

    It was perplexing to watch Trumble mention protecting religious freedoms just a few paragraphs into his speech yesterday. Hello, did the survey results not tell you anything?

  10. ratsak

    The HC judge cleared him on one part. I cannot remember exactly. However the profit under crown part was not addressed I think.

    It doesn’t hurt for the Greens to seek legal advice to be sure.

  11. mikehilliard
    My work place is on the other side of the railway tracks from the CBD. I can literally be in the CBD in 2 munutes. Until a building went up in between we used to be able to see Telstra’s Wellington St Exchange. We are currently down to get NBN in January- June 2019.

  12. Henry Belot‏Verified account @Henry_Belot · 10m10 minutes ago

    Things are getting tense in the Senate just now. Five Libs and Nats have crossed the floor to support the below motion on abortion. Sarah Hanson-Young tells out: “You bunch of misogynistic…!” @politicsabc

    ABC Politics‏Verified account @politicsabc · 8m8 minutes ago

    The day of love in the Senate hasn’t lasted long.

    Greens @sarahinthesen8 has lashed out at conservatives who voted in favour of a motion to withdraw Medicare funding for some forms of abortion.

    The motion failed. #auspol

  13. workmanalice: Cory Bernardi’s motion to stop medicare funding for abortions was defeated in Senate 36-10.
    One Nation + Eric Abetz, Barry O’Sullivan, Zed Seselja, Matt Canavan & Anne Ruston all voted in favour with Bernardi. pic.twitter.com/uX1ONsnnwR

  14. Tweety on the left‏ @devalara44 · 8m8 minutes ago

    oh lookie Jim Molan under the Molan Family Trust appears to have received profits under the Crown as a contractor to Defence – also has a current sole trader ABN 43705408098 #auspol @adamgartrell @murpharoo @davrosz

  15. Unless you want the state involved in literally every commercial enterprise, there must be limits on transactional freedom or some things are effectively denied to discriminated groups.

    Eg it may be difficult to get married / have a wedding in Maranoa or Western Sydney , if Brandis amendment about civil celebrants go ahead because the supply of public offices obliged to provide these services is actually limited in many states (this isn’t actually an issue in Maranoa because Qld actually has the most comprehensive state office provision I could find (one at every Court house)).

  16. meher,

    I think your comments highlight how much some religious views differ from the standards of our Society.

    In a persons home or their religious buildings those views are free to dominate but outside it is only the standards of the Society that matter.

    Society tolerates these differences by allowing religions certain exceptions from the Society’s standard.

    These exemptions do not give the give the Right to any religion or adherent to impose there view on the Society.

    By refusing a service because of a belief, an adherent is imposing that belief on Society.

  17. 36-10 ? On a motion like that. That’s a disappointingly small defeat. But I’m guessing it’s not supposed to be an active chamber and as many voted as necessary to shut that down would have showed up.

  18. End days for the Coalition government unfolding before our very eyes. Internal bickering over idelogical fluff, whilst the PM lurches from day to day with S.44 disqualifications and their ramifications.

    If only there was a double dissoultion trigger….

  19. I believe the spill of votes from Lambie makes McKim safe (outside of further unpredicted disqualifications). It was only with Parry being the only one out that McKim risked losing his seat to ONP. Good to know that Waterman seems safe. I’m presuming that any potential government contracts they may have wouldnt effect their CEO (I don’t know if they have government contracts or not).

    I doubt the court would rule that JLN can be replaced as a casual one. Not with the current strict following of the law. I’m sure ONP would challenge that decision.

  20. **Eric Abetz, Barry O’Sullivan, Zed Seselja, Matt Canavan & Anne Ruston all voted in favour with Bernardi**
    WTF? So the hard right of the LNP can vote on conscience but we have to have a $120m ABS Survey for the others to get up the guts to do so? Not to mention other policy matters.

    FFS

  21. And if Molan gets shot for anything solely post the declaration of the last election the stupidity will just be multiplied.

    I’m not fan of Molan at all. A senate without him is a good start for mine. but if he’s gone too it won’t be a case of stupid pollies not doing their due dilligence. It will be a HC too wrapped up in clever legalistic nonsense making a tough but workable condition of the constitution a farce. And themselves with it.

  22. I don’t think the Hughe’s ruling had any real effect. The University argument is indirectness not temporal proximity and / or the (utterly absurd) legal fiction it appears the High Court has adopted where Senate elections do not complete until it can either be proved the entire state contingent is validly elected or the term ends.

    The AAT isn’t arm’s length at all, it’s a direct body. But yeah best to keep legal advice as timely as possible.

    (If Universitie faculty positions are offices of profit under the crown then it will open up all sorts of questions about government contractors too. I really think Bartlett should have referred himself to settle this one way or another. )

  23. Malcolm Farr‏Verified account @farrm51 · 5m5 minutes ago

    Bugger SSM, energy bills and jobs, this is what @corybernardi wants debated today, with One Nation support.

  24. Judging by the relatively low numbers, this is a watch shift and votes will be trucked in as needed. Debate starts late today and ends at 11. Then resumes tomorrow IIRC.

  25. Canavan is a Government Minister and has voted against The Government’s Policy. Unless he’s been given dispensation to do so he should resign and if he does not Turnbull must sack him.

    Surely, this Government is cooked!

  26. sprocket
    “If Justine Keay is disqualified in Braddon, Jacqui Lambie could run for this Reps seat. She would probably romp it in.”

    I’m not so certain of that (Lambie winning Braddon). May depend on if the Libs run dead (or run at all).

  27. GG

    i believe the Liberal allows conscience votes but you must resign a ministerial position to cross the floor. Corman, Szelja crossed the floor.

  28. lizzie @ #1032 Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 9:06 am

    Malcolm Farr‏Verified account @farrm51 · 5m5 minutes ago

    Bugger SSM, energy bills and jobs, this is what @corybernardi wants debated today, with One Nation support.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    So GetUps crimes appear to be that they support progressive causes and that they are effective in doing so.

    The tears are welling up as I type! 🙂

  29. I think the formal Liberal restriction is only on Cabinet ministers (but I believe Canavan is) and Cabinet positions (which these probably aren’t because they are to dumb to have ever been discussed in Cabinet). So he’s probably technically fine.

    But that doesn’t matter because Canavan is sitting as a Nat and it seems like Turnbull lacks the internal clout to apply the usual discipline of effectively consigning troublemakers to never getting promoted again and quietly moved to the backbench in the next shuffle.

  30. Cory is making his move to define his party as the true home of conservatives. Perfect outcome for him- yes survey win and libs cave in on legistlation- Look here conservatives I’m your man! Wonderful Coalition base vote in the 20’s looms!

  31. Elaugaufein @ #1121 Thursday, November 16th, 2017 – 11:59 am

    36-10 ? On a motion like that. That’s a disappointingly small defeat. But I’m guessing it’s not supposed to be an active chamber and as many voted as necessary to shut that down would have showed up.

    I don’t think the exercise was anything more than RWNJ’s virtue-signaling their base after being dealt an embarrassing loss on the marriage equality issue.

    They couldn’t have expected it to actually get up.

  32. El,

    Corman is a Lib, in Cabinet and crossed the floor.

    I dont think assistant minister Zed Selja is inside cabinet but still. A minister crossed the floor.

  33. Barney: “These exemptions do not give the give the Right to any religion or adherent to impose there view on the Society. By refusing a service because of a belief, an adherent is imposing that belief on Society.”

    Ah – and here is one of the most significant challenges of a multicultural society – but what if they see themselves as belonging to a “religious community” which is a subset of “society”, and therefore feel a divided loyalty? It can be very difficult for people in such situations if they find that the rules of wider society impose certain practices on them that conflict with their religious obligations.

    Traditionally, Australia has been pretty tolerant of people in these situations. One example that comes to mind is that the religious beliefs of Jehovah’s Witnesses (a rather dreadful cult IMO, but that’s another story) prohibit them from voting, and the Australian Electoral Commission has long accepted this.

    I would have thought that, as long as they could show that it was based on a specific religious obligation and not just a general prejudice, a refusal by a business person to provide a service to same sex couples could be seen as belonging to the same category. But apparently not.

    I really hope that we don’t end up seeing a Colorado bakery-style case in Australia. Australians don’t seem to appreciate bullying, and it might undo some of the good work that the SSM campaign has achieved. But I appreciate that my view is not widely shared, and I’m not too happy about the broader political stances of most of those who have a similar view. So over and out from me on this issue.

  34. Given the survey results Turnbull could be quite happy to rebuild the liberal in the Liberal party.

    Its been shown the hard right conservatives have far less support than was supposed.

    Thats one reason I suspect we are seeing so much information revealed.

    Its going to be an up hill battle to win government with 17 seats most currently held by Labor.

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