Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; YouGov: 52-48

Essential has Malcolm Turnbull losing ground on personal approval, but not voting intention; YouGov does the opposite.

No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: Actually, it was 53-47 last week. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is steady on 8%). Monthly leadership ratings confirm Newspoll’s picture of declining personal support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down five on approval to 37% and up six on disapproval to 49%. However, Bill Shorten hasn’t done brilliantly either, being down two on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and making only a slight dent in Turnbull’s 42-28 lead as preferred prime minister, which now stands at 40-28.

Other findings:

• Forty per cent approve of a requirement that for MPs to provide declarations about their eligibility, while 44% say this does not go far enough. Forty-nine per cent say MPs found to have been invalidly elected should should repay their public funding, compared with 30% who thought otherwise.

• Forty-five per cent felt the same-sex marriage postal survey was a bad process that should not be repeated; 19% felt it good, but not one that should be repeated; and 27% thought it a good process that should be used more often.

We only have the report from the Guardian to go on at this point, with primary votes to follow with the publication of Essential’s full report later today.

The fortnightly Fifty Acres-YouGov poll records a break to Labor, who are now 52-48 in front after uncharacteristically trailing 51-49 in their last few polls. However, the pollster’s distinguishing peculiarity – the strength of support recorded for minor parties – is more pronounced than ever, as the Coalition sinks five to 31% and Labor only picks up one to 34%, with One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens up one to 11%. As usual, the two-party total is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that gives three-quarters of the One Nation vote to the Coalition.

The pollster also has its occasional personal ratings for a range of politicians, which are unusual in being relatively favourable over all, and having low uncommitted ratings. Contrary to the other pollsters, Malcolm Turnbull records little change since early September, with approval steady at 44% and disapproval down one to 47%. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 45% and down two to 44%, and Pauline Hanson’s ratings are not unlike those of the major party leaders, with approval up three to 45% and down two on disapproval to 48%. Also featured: Richard Di Natale (up three to 29%, down six to 33%), Nick Xenophon (up one to 53%, steady on 28%), Bob Katter (up one to 37%, steady on 41%), Tony Abbott (up two to 36%, down one to 56%) and Christopher Pyne (steady on 32%, up one to 45%).

Other findings are that respondents want same-sex marriage legalised straight away if the survey result is yes, though 42% think opponents should vote with their consciences in parliament; they overwhelmingly favour a “full parliamentary audit” on Section 44; and they want a much harder line on tax avoidance and evasion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

969 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; YouGov: 52-48”

Comments Page 14 of 20
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  2. It also doesn’t hurt that the media (with the exception of Newscorp) is in love with Keneally, who they see as one of theirs, and aren’t really in the mood to go into bat for the serial loser Turnbull.

    At the end of the day, the media love a contest, and they’ll do their damndest to make it one.

  3. Seems to me that if John Alexander hasn’t got his renunciation certificate back by nomination day Turnbull has put his foot in it again.

    He is threatening to go nuclear by referring Labor MPs in the same circumstances, Poodle has already been out condemning them, and where have the Libs got to go to except the naughty corner for Mr Alexander if his application goes belly-up?

  4. Pedant,
    It’s really easy to write stuff like that.
    Simple question. Do you have the same attitude towards all the Labor MPs in the NSW State parliament now who were also there back then and also campaigned for Labor at the 2011 election?

    How about the Liberals who were in parliament when their corrupt activities took place?

    If you don’t have a similar opinion of them, why not?

    Is it simply because you are a Labor Hater and are incapable of forgiveness?

  7. Do not fret dear Bushfire. Australia House will be on the job to ensure a very very quick turn around, with Lord Downer his very own self no doubt taking personal charge of the arrangements.

    Not for JA the interminable processes of the Civil Service. That’s for Plebeians like Labor candidates and Xenophon’s crowd. The better classes are expedited as their status demands.

  8. Just saw a funny comic that I can’t post.

    Young kid asks mum:

    “Mum, why do I have to go to school?”

    mum:

    “So you don’t vote for One Nation when you grow up.”

  9. Bushfire Bill @ #653 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 8:01 pm

    Seems to me that if John Alexander hasn’t got his renunciation certificate back by nomination day Turnbull has put his foot in it again.

    He is threatening to go nuclear by referring Labor MPs in the same circumstances, Poodle has already been out condemning them, and where have the Libs got to go to except the naughty corner for Mr Alexander if his application goes belly-up?

    Watching Alexander you get the impression he’s had a gutful and would be quite happy for his citizenship renunciation to miss the deadline!

  11. Funny that News Corp is so against KK… one of their own employees.

    She’s only there to provide the token ‘balance’ voice. They’re probably glad to be shot of her cause she was actually good at it and not a ‘Labor’ person like Latham or Mr Whateverittakes

  14. ratsak

    I think Helen Clark got a good boost when she took in Tampa people. She was copping crap leading up to it but once the deal was done NZ became very proud of “The Tampa boys”. They seem to have done very well.

    From The Hun of all places

    The Tampa children reflect on their rescue 12 years on
    The Tampa children Australia didn’t want

    Twelve years on, Tahira smiles beside her best friend, Huria Rahimi, on campus at the University of Auckland. Tahira is doing a double major in psychology and social science for public health; Huria is studying optometry.

    They first met in the lounge of an Indonesian hotel. Two seven-year-old girls looking after little brothers, fighting over whose turn it was to sit on an old rocking chair.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/the-tampa-children-reflect-on-their-rescue-12-years-on/news-story/ad3079e56669d3c0515aedf42bd7d552

  15. C@tmomma @ 8.02pm

    “Do you have the same attitude towards all the Labor MPs in the NSW State parliament now who were also there back then and also campaigned for Labor at the 2011 election?”

    Answer: Yes. I don’t believe for one minute that they didn’t all know exactly what was going on, and they deserve to wear that for the rest of their lives. I don’t have much respect for people who blow the whistle on corruption only when they know that doing so will no longer hurt their careers.

    “How about the Liberals who were in parliament when their corrupt activities took place?”

    Answer: Ditto.

    “If you don’t have a similar opinion of them, why not?”

    Answer: Not applicable, see previous answer.

    “Is it simply because you are a Labor Hater and are incapable of forgiveness?”

    Answer: I’m not a Labor Hater, I’m a swinging voter and always have been. But I am largely incapable of forgiveness for the sort of rackets which were going on in the Keneally government. And I was certainly part of the 64% who voted for the coalition over the ALP in NSW in 2011. In federal elections, I’m lucky enough to have Mike Kelly as my local member.

  17. “…and like clockwork PB’s Shortenites are putting the slows on Keneally as potential leadership material”

    Faster than a clockwork Rex!
    More insightful than “yeah, but Albo?” !
    Able to leap MSM narratives in a single bound!

    Look, over there! OVER THERE! Shiny thing!
    It’s Everyman!

  18. mikehilliard @ 7.52 pm

    I’m not sure whether you mean Barry O’Farrell, or the local National Party candidate down here in Monaro, John Barilaro. But in 2011, I certainly did. Apart from anything else, I was still just about speechless about the gall shown by the ALP after the 2007 election, when, having falsely claimed to be “heading in the right direction”, they then ignored the fact that the electorate had voted for them only with noses tightly held, and proceeded to govern as if they had been given a whacking great mandate. They needed to be taught the mother of all lessons, which I thought they might have learnt after 2011, but their attempt to recycle Ms Keneally makes me doubt that all over again. We don’t all have amnesia here in NSW.

  24. CTar1 @ 8.25pm

    I’m no Barilaro fan, and was especially amused at his recent attempt to make a case for nuclear power: this from a member of a government which couldn’t even stand up to the flak coming from attempts to amalgamate a few local councils and ban dog racing.

  25. Evening all. With Lambie gone (pity) and Devonport mayor Steve Martin to take her spot, does anyone have a read on Martin? Will he vote similarly to Lambie?

  26. Pedant

    Yes, I meant O’Farrell. As to amnesia no I haven’t forgotten. As to the current NSW government may they rot in hell for the mess they’ve made of my electorate in the inner west of Sydney. Enjoy your pleasant rural seat, not too many motorways being put through your back yard I suspect.

  27. pedant

    I don’t think I’ve heard anything from him lately (possibly since the last state election) but what crazy ideas he’d come up wouldn’t amaze me.

    He comes across as someone who’d fit in any southern US electorate.

  32. mikehilliard @ 8.35pm

    Actually I’m in the urban end of Monaro. But I can certainly see why you would hold in great contempt a government which chooses to wreck your neighbourhood.

  34. Pendant, so using your logic there were 11 Lib members of the Baird govt that had to resign due to corruption allegations against them. Now as as a voter in NSW I will forever hold Gladys Berejiklian responsible for that corruption,even though she may of had nothing to do with it she must of known of the corrupt behavior, and for that reason I can never possibly vote for them ever.

  35. gg

    Lib Party in Bennelong is preferencing One Nation.

    It seems they don’t learn.

    They’ll get most of ON’s second preferences but they are really endorsing a party that is targeting their seats.

  39. sonar @ 8.50pm

    I think your view of the current NSW government is entirely reasonable. Of course Ms Berejiklian knew what was going on.

  40. would not surprise me if Trump makes a move to attempt to neuter the Mueller investigation.

    ΞLΞVΞNTH
    @3L3V3NTH
    ·
    34s
    Are you pregnant?
    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    I will be making a major statement from the @WhiteHouse upon my return to D.C. Time and date to be set.

  42. I won’t defend some of Lambie’s racist comments, but she was a positive figure on other issues.

    I may have answered my own question on Martin with this piece.
    https://www.stevemartin.com.au/news

    He is strongly in favour of getting reduced freight costs (i.e. Subsidies) and more employment to NW Tasmania, and seems quite opposed to cutting health and ucation. Labor should take note.

  44. Cud Chewer Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 8:51 pm Comment #686

    Does anyone know exactly how John Alexander’s renunciation is going?

    Wasn’t he still ‘getting around’ to it on the weekend so it’s not likely that his original documents and payment would be delivered in the UK by now.

  45. PVO obviously backing his partner on Sky!

    As government MPs line up to declare Kristina Keneally such a bad egg now that she’s running for Bennelong, consider this: why did Malcolm Turnbull appoint her to the Indigenous Referendum Council? #auspo

  46. If only the media in this country were honest and capable, the headline would be ‘Turnbull runs from NZ PM to avoid being shirt fronted by a woman!’

    Tom

  47. victoria

    Thanks, the comment seemed a pretty WTF comment for a reporter in such a job to make so due to the rumour that not all you read on the internet is accurate 😀 I thought I should post that follow up……………………….BUT OMG it was genuine and ridgey didge.

  48. How can Burke confirm that LNP will direct preferences to PHON in Bennelong when we dont even know if PHON is standing a candidate??

  49. Trump says he created quite an impression on his Asian trip. As well as telling all those heathens they had to buy more from the US or else, he reckons that he really impressed the locals:

    Trump also said the trip had been ‘very fruitful’ for the United States and pointed to the warm welcomes he had received in capitals like Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing.

    ‘It was red carpet like nobody, I think, has probably ever received,’ Trump said. ‘And that really is a sign of respect, perhaps for me a little, but really for our country. And I’m really proud of that.’

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2017/11/14/trump-meets-duterte–avoids-human-rights.html

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