Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

Bill Shorten almost matches Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, as the Coalition cops its worst Newspoll result since February.

Newspoll breaks out of its long-established 53-47 to 54-46 rut by recording Labor with a two-party lead of 55-45, compared with 54-46 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is up one to 38%, the Coalition down one to 34%, One Nation is up one to 10% and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull suffers a body blow on personal ratings, down two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 58%, and his lead on preferred prime minister all but disappears, now at 36-34 compared with 41-33 last time. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 53%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1625. Full report from The Australian.

UPDATE: The poll also finds Julie Bishop clearly favoured over Malcolm Turnbull to lead the Liberal Party, by 40% to 27%. Peter Dutton on 11%, being most favoured by One Nation voters on 24%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

860 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Margo Kingston‏Verified account @margokingston1 · 10m10 minutes ago

    Laughing again, just seen Julie Bishop say LABOR had to be dragged to declaration deal. She’s now as ludicrous as the PM.

    I don’t find it very humorous that Coalition MPs do so much flat out lying.

  2. Margo Kingston‏Verified account @margokingston1 · 10m10 minutes ago
    Laughing again, just seen Julie Bishop say LABOR had to be dragged to declaration deal. She’s now as ludicrous as the PM.

    I don’t find it very humorous that Coalition MPs do so much flat out lying.

    She must have seen Calcutt’s report 🙂 At least the lies are being reported now…

  3. a r @ #634 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 2:09 pm

    But attending a gay wedding isn’t even necessarily showing that you support anything beyond the two people getting married! Are people and businesses going to be allowed to discriminate on the basis of inferred support for something they disagree with?

    Is it OK to go to a bi persons wedding in a hotel if you know they are bi and one of the bridesmaids or grooms is a frequent partner for one or both?

    Question @ #640 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 2:16 pm

    Uhlmann has been so much better since he joined Ch9 that it’s very tempting to think there is a cultural problem in the ABC newsroom. Mind you, in the period since he left the ABC turd polishing for the government has been very difficult.

    Also, Lane Calcutt (who I think is underrated), had a grab of JBish saying Labor have finally agreed to the government’s proposals on citizenship, and then corrected her, saying the government had caved into the ALP demands.

    There hasn’t been a blackout yet! 🙂

  4. I for one would like to thank the Turnbull “government” for its efforts. In these last days of commercial television, there is very little enjoyable to watch. Malcolm and friends have kept us entertained for months. Never mind social or economic progress. What about the parliamentary chaos! We have high court cases, defecting senators, defective senators, polling disasters! It is a custard trifle of government without governing. Thanks Malcolm, for making Australian political cartoons great again.

  5. More trubble at t’mill?

    Robert Maxwell‏ @RobMax4 · 4m4 minutes ago

    Senator Hanson said she believed one of former One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts’ staff had encouraged Senator Anning to defect to Senator Bernardi’s party.

  6. The current exchange of opinions on Citizenships puts the HC in the position of Schrodinger’s cat! or perhaps they could replace Heisenberg’s Principle,”We can have certainty as to your Dual citizenship status, or of when you attained your status, but not both “

  7. lizzie @ #645 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 2:19 pm

    Margo Kingston‏Verified account @margokingston1 · 10m10 minutes ago

    Laughing again, just seen Julie Bishop say LABOR had to be dragged to declaration deal. She’s now as ludicrous as the PM.

    I don’t find it very humorous that Coalition MPs do so much flat out lying.

    As I said before, if the Government get to keep the name, then to them it’s a victory.

    I’d imagine it was probably the Government dragging their own Senators into the Chamber so as to not look completely ridiculous. 🙂

  8. Kenny is still making excuses for Turnbull. This time it’s “young fogey” Patterson’s devious back-stabbing antics that have frustrated The Handsome Prince’s obvious and passionate dedication to marriage equality.

    Fucking bullshit!

    If Turnbull was half the leader – or the man – that Kenny makes him out to be, he’d have ordered the cut-back-collared, Brylcreamed little nobody into his office, grabbed him by the scruf of his scrawny turkey neck, and forcefully informed him just who was Boss.

    A Prime Minister who cannot carry out the basic interpersonal exercise of carpeting the most junior member of his government ranks (with extreme prejudice if necessary) is not worth 2-bob as a national leader.

    Absolutely piss-weak.

  9. Bemused

    There seems to be a continual procession of Victorian Chief Medical Officers (CMO). Each time the office of the CMO is interviewed it is someone different.

    What is going on?

    I have very little time for the CMO. They were lazy/incomptent/asleep at the wheel wrt the freak thunderstorm / asthma combination that hit Melbourne a few months ago.

  10. Joshua Gans on Justine Keay:

    Citing belated legal advice she received last week, she says, “I would be incredibly confident of getting through that process” of going before the High Court.

    She shouldn’t be. Keay and her lawyers seem to be drawing on a widespread misconception that all the Constitution requires of political candidates is “reasonable steps” to comply. Just two weeks ago, though, the High Court adopted Tony Windsor’s argument that “the operation of the constitutional guarantee of single-minded loyalty provided by s 44(i) should not be made to depend upon the diligence which a candidate brings to the observance of the provision.” In other words, there is no try. There is only done or not done.

    The sole exception accepted by the High Court is where a foreign country’s processes make it impossible for Australians to rid themselves of foreign citizenship or entitlements. Then, and only then, will reasonable steps suffice. The examples the court gave were about laws that require Australians to travel to an unsafe country or, perhaps, countries with opaque and unhelpful renunciation systems. The British system is the opposite of all that.

  11. lizzie @ #649 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 2:31 pm

    More trubble at t’mill?

    Robert Maxwell‏ @RobMax4 · 4m4 minutes ago

    Senator Hanson said she believed one of former One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts’ staff had encouraged Senator Anning to defect to Senator Bernardi’s party.

    Was this with Roberts’ knowledge?

    I know, not a very precise question! 🙂

  12. Roger

    Yeah, how they could drag a simple yes/no out over the day will be a miracle to behold. I’m hoping for some live coverage of the unfolding bloodbath in the LNP ranks as the yes climbs over 65%.

  13. Seriosly, doesn’t this polling highlight the folly of Turnbull’s strategy to delay and deny his inelligible MPs problem? In the end the HC will order more by elections, or he will look like an illegitimate PM. And by the time the by elections are held, his chances of winning them gets slimmer each week. Meanwhile, there is no air time left to discuss any new policy ideas.

  14. Now that the sun is well over the yard arm, i’d like to share a doggie story with you. (Medical warning)

    Yesterday afternoon my Golden Retriever started bleeding quite profusely from his penis sheath. We had spent an hour or so in the garden and came in for lunch. Of course, it would be on a Sunday. A fair bit of floor mopping went on. He was a little subdued, but not sick-looking. His gums were pink, he ate his tea as usual (well, he’s a greedy Golden) and by bed time the bleeding seemed to have slowed.

    This morning he had cleaned himself up and ate a hearty breakfast, as they say. Nevertheless, I took him to the Vet for a check-up although I had a suspicion about the cause.

    Yes, diagnosis was that a leech had climbed up into the sheath, opened a small vein and sucked until satisfied, then departed, having left a dose of anti-clotting chemical behind.

    So, my male friends, be warned. Never lie down in wet grass with no protection. 😆

  15. mikehilliard says:
    Monday, November 13, 2017 at 6:38 pm
    Roger

    Yeah, how they could drag a simple yes/no out over the day will be a miracle to behold. I’m hoping for some live coverage of the unfolding bloodbath in the LNP ranks as the yes climbs over 65%.

    It will be harder for the nutters the higher it goes. While nothing is more fun than watching the nutters run wild in the L-NP, I’m hoping for over 70% 🙂

  16. Barney in Go Dau @ #649 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 6:18 pm

    Simple, any time before that date you are.

    This is not in keeping with previous HC rulings, which have already rejected a purely literal (i.e. “black letter”) interpretation of section 44(i). They rejected it because it is unworkable and also because it would discriminate against some dual citizens. The only question now is how far from “literal” the HC is prepared to go. We won’t know that until they rule on a suitable test case, which they have not yet done.

  17. lizzie @ #664 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 2:46 pm

    Now that the sun is well over the yard arm, i’d like to share a doggie story with you. (Medical warning)

    Yesterday afternoon my Golden Retriever started bleeding quite profusely from his penis sheath. We had spent an hour or so in the garden and came in for lunch. Of course, it would be on a Sunday. A fair bit of floor mopping went on. He was a little subdued, but not sick-looking. His gums were pink, he ate his tea as usual (well, he’s a greedy Golden) and by bed time the bleeding seemed to have slowed.

    This morning he had cleaned himself up and ate a hearty breakfast, as they say. Nevertheless, I took him to the Vet for a check-up although I had a suspicion about the cause.

    Yes, diagnosis was that a leech had climbed up into the sheath, opened a small vein and sucked until satisfied, then departed, having left a dose of anti-clotting chemical behind.

    So, my male friends, be warned. Never lie down in wet grass with no protection. 😆

    I saw on TV a water creature in the Amazon that does a similar thing.

    The only problem is it has backwards pointing barbs and so does not retreat. Ouch!!!

  18. Player One @ #668 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 2:53 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #649 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 6:18 pm

    Simple, any time before that date you are.

    This is not in keeping with previous HC rulings, which have already rejected a purely literal (i.e. “black letter”) interpretation of section 44(i). They rejected it because it is unworkable and also because it would discriminate against some dual citizens. The only question now is how far from “literal” the HC is prepared to go. We won’t know that until they rule on a suitable test case, which they have not yet done.

    Read Williams link below.

  19. Question

    Talking of nutters Chris Berg (IPA) is having a bit of a spit on the Drum. Something like more people will have voted no than there are LGBTI people so we should take their concerns more seriously.

  20. Lizzie

    I rooly, rooly, don’t know what we would do without you.

    Up until today I though that laying down with leaches was the main plank of the IPA.

    But your help has opened the way to revolt and enabled us to become free, FREE, I say.

    ♫♪♫♪
    Back to swearing at the other computer. 🙂

  21. The Government has an ‘interesting’ negotiating style. In a book about negotiation I read many years ago I think it’s called ‘Soviet style’. Strictly win-lose. Demand full and unconditional capitulation of your negotiating partner. Maybe offer a few stingy concessions.

    If they end up losing, as they did on citizenship disclosure today, they claim victory anyway, lambast and ridicule their opponents and blame them for obstruction and delaying. Their media allies will boost and support this line, rather like the old state controlled Soviet media, while most and the rest, like the ABC, will simply repeat Malcolm’s and Bishop’s lies unchallenged.

  22. mikehilliard @ #672 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 2:58 pm

    Question

    Talking of nutters Chris Berg (IPA) is having a bit of a spit on the Drum. Something like more people will have voted no than there are LGBTI people so we should take their concerns more seriously.

    I jokingly suggested that that would be the “NO’s” final position of retreat ages ago.

    Reality has no meaning anymore!!!

  23. Gans doesn’t seem to have realised that the Brits took only a few days to pass through the renunciation of Senator Nash. Then he seems to think that Rebecca Sharkie is in a better position because she acted about three weeks before Keay. Oh, really? How does the court make those distinctions. And what happens if a pre-selected candidate stands down and a late replacement is brought in (or say the govt calls a snap election). The replacement IMMEDIATELY sends his or her renunciation papers to the Brits. According to Gans, that person has not taken all reasonable steps. I have great trouble with that.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #659 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 6:36 pm

    Kenny is still making excuses for Turnbull. This time it’s “young fogey” Patterson’s devious back-stabbing antics that have frustrated The Handsome Prince’s obvious and passionate dedication to marriage equality.

    Fucking bullshit!

    If Turnbull was half the leader – or the man – that Kenny makes him out to be, he’d have ordered the cut-back-collared, Brylcreamed little nobody into his office, grabbed him by the scruf of his scrawny turkey neck, and forcefully informed him just who was Boss.

    A Prime Minister who cannot carry out the basic interpersonal exercise of carpeting the most junior member of his government ranks (with extreme prejudice if necessary) is not worth 2-bob as a national leader.

    Absolutely piss-weak.

    Jesus you make me laugh. Thank you ❗ Thank You

    Effing Handsome Prince. I used to call my father “Prince Charming” and he was a less devious gentleman than our not so young pretender.

    I wonder what the boys down the pub would make of the skinny dipshit you so handsomely describe above ❓

  25. Barney

    I jokingly suggested that that would be the “NO’s” final position of retreat ages ago.

    Either the prescience on this blog is amazing or the nutters are utterly predictable. Maybe both.

  26. Barney in Go Dau @ #673 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    Read Williams link below.

    I read it. Competing interpretations of the HC ruling regarding other dissimilar cases cannot resolve this way or another. Only a HC ruling itself on this specific issue (or one sufficiently similar) will resolve it.

    For instance:

    “the operation of the constitutional guarantee of single-minded loyalty provided by s 44(i) should not be made to depend upon the diligence which a candidate brings to the observance of the provision.” In other words, there is no try. There is only done or not done.

    The first part of this para is what the HC accepted. But the second part seems to be the interpretation of Gans. An equally valid interpretation could be that complying with the requirements of the country in question by lodging a valid renunciation is sufficient, and the final outcome should not depend on how fast the country processes it, or whether the applicant has the political “clout” to ensure a resolution.

    In other words, if a “try” is sufficient for some countries, why is it not sufficient for all?. Why discriminate on the basis of nationality?

  27. DTT

    Teeheehee.

    Chris Berg did say one sensible thing – that the govt was in such a mess that an election should be called to sort everything out.

  28. PL – Excellent point. Two candidates are equally diligent. One coy processes the renunciation quickly; the other LOSES it. The candidate whose application is lost get tossed out of Parliament?

  29. It;’s interesting that the Constitution actually doesn’t say anything about “renunciation” of citizenship – it’s only concerned with whether the citizenship exists and tho only thing that seems to relate to timing is being “chosen” which occurs to my mind when the poll is declared.

    The HC appears to have constructed the whole framework around “renunciation” itself and therefore could no doubt modify it to cope with changing circumstances.

    Not sure where that leaves all the affected parties, but I would tend to think that completion of steps by the renouncing party is critical.

    I was always amused when sitting on committees when a member of the committee resigned and the committee “accepted” the resignation. Why bother – it was surely effective as soon as it was made – the law can not compel you to comply with a right that you have rejected. That is an absolutely basic freedom. You may have a residual “obligation” arising from your prior possession of the “right” but you don’t have the right any more.

    Perhaps this is totally down the wrong track but it’s interesting to speculate. This will be my only contribution to the PB “debate” on the matter. I look forward to the HC exercising whatever ingenuity is necessary to pilot a course through the rapids.

  30. antonbruckner11 @ #677 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 3:05 pm

    Gans doesn’t seem to have realised that the Brits took only a few days to pass through the renunciation of Senator Nash. Then he seems to think that Rebecca Sharkie is in a better position because she acted about three weeks before Keay. Oh, really? How does the court make those distinctions. And what happens if a pre-selected candidate stands down and a late replacement is brought in (or say the govt calls a snap election). The replacement IMMEDIATELY sends his or her renunciation papers to the Brits. According to Gans, that person has not taken all reasonable steps. I have great trouble with that.

    Yeah, Gans is suggesting that the calling of the election is the significant date.

    He doesn’t give much weight to this but why suggest it if there is no real hope of it?

    It’s like saying Roberts was in a stronger position than Joyce because at some point before the close of nominations he considered there might be a problem.

  31. I reject people saying that MPs like Keay merely ‘tried’ to rid themselves of UK citship.

    If you complete every task/process needed to make something happen, then you did more than try because completion is not your role in this instance.

    A broad analogy would be a surgeon completing an operation successfully … but whether the patient wakes up after is beyond his/her control.

  32. The Right are predictable. They will fight same sex marriage all the way, just as they fought the decriminalisation of homosexual acts, no-fault divorce, the liberalisation of abortion laws, the abolition of the silly censorship of films, art and literature we had until the early 70s; and in earlier generations and other places just as they resisted the end to the death penalty, desegregation, votes for women, universal (male) suffrage and the abolition of slavery.

  33. Player One @ #682 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 3:11 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #673 Monday, November 13th, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    Read Williams link below.

    I read it. Competing interpretations of the HC ruling regarding other dissimilar cases cannot resolve this way or another. Only a HC ruling itself on this specific issue (or one sufficiently similar) will resolve it.

    For instance:

    “the operation of the constitutional guarantee of single-minded loyalty provided by s 44(i) should not be made to depend upon the diligence which a candidate brings to the observance of the provision.” In other words, there is no try. There is only done or not done.

    The first part of this para is what the HC accepted. But the second part seems to be the interpretation of Gans. An equally valid interpretation could be that complying with the requirements of the country in question by lodging a valid renunciation is sufficient, and the final outcome should not depend on how fast the country processes it, or whether the applicant has the political “clout” to ensure a resolution.

    In other words, if a “try” is sufficient for some countries, why is it not sufficient for all?. Why discriminate on the basis of nationality?

    None of that goes to the point of their not being an absolute date critical to the process.

    There is, the day the country says you are not a citizen.

    Everything else you say requires the HC to make a new judgement.

    I hope they do.

  34. Steve777

    The Right are predictable.

    All good points Steve. You wonder what makes them tick, obviously not a sense of humanity.

  35. Now is the chance for the High Court to rule that validly applying for renunciation before nominations close is sufficient to:

    (a) show a genuine intent on the part of an otherwise qualifying Australian citizen to renounce citizenship for the purposes of election to Parliament;

    (b) comply with the “reasonable steps” test should the vagaries of a foreign government’s bureaucracy cause random or otherwise unforseen delays.

    This recognises the pitfalls of snap election timing, the realities of a multicultural society, and will tend to unclog the highest court in the land from cases brought by bored (or possibly partisan), retired barristers with too much time on their hands and an active Ancestry.com account.

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