BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

As chaos mounts in Canberra, the situation on the polling front remains eerily quiet.

The recent action and excitement in federal politics continues to make no impression on the polls. This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack aggregate nudges very slightly to the Coalition on two-party preferred, but the vagaries of state breakdowns cause Labor to pick up two on the seat projection, with a gain apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. The only new addition this week is the regular Essential Research result, which provided no new data on leadership ratings. Full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,510 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  2. Asha Leu @ #1398 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:41 pm

    Rex Douglas says:

    Although, whilst not ideal, she’d be a lot better,

    How?

    I’m genuinely really curious to hear you’re reasoning on this one. I believe I did ask you about it back when you first brought it up, but if you answered it must have been lost among all the other chatter.

    She’s a far better communicator… which is what a leader needs to sell their policies.

  5. Rex:

    She’s become a much better communicator now she’s left politics and can be more herself. But who can forget her wooden performances as NSW Premier?

    Shorten has done remarkably well in his tenure as LOTO and Labor leader, uniting the party after Rudd’s treachery and resultant implosion. The party has a solid policy platform from which to campaign on, and it makes absolutely no sense to switch leaders at a timepoint when everything is going against the govt.

  7. billie
    That little man was the one born 15.5 weeks premature. He’s come through it really well with no baggage. He lives to help me doing all the jobs around the place!

  8. Confessions @ #1405 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:51 pm

    Rex:

    She’s become a much better communicator now she’s left politics and can be more herself. But who can forget her wooden performances as NSW Premier?

    Shorten has done remarkably well in his tenure as LOTO and Labor leader, uniting the party after Rudd’s treachery and resultant implosion. The party has a solid policy platform from which to campaign on, and it makes absolutely no sense to switch leaders at a timepoint when everything is going against the govt.

    Be honest, Shorten is a terrible communicator and is perpetually unpopular with polling respondents. .

  9. Rex Douglas:

    She’s a far better communicator… which is what a leader needs to sell their policies.

    Well, I’d actually dispute that first claim. Sure, in her post-politics opinion pieces she can indeed be very articulate, but I don’t remember her being much of a communicator back when she was Premier.

    But then I actually consider Shorten quite a skilled communicator himself. Not a very charismatic one, no, nor one that’s ever going to attract the sort of following the likes of Rudd or Obama had, but whenever I see him speak to the media, he’s clear, concise, articulate, and on-message.

    Even so… do you not think that Keneally might bring a little bit of, well, baggage with her that would undermine her great communication skills just a little?

  10. Rex:

    A lot of people think Turnbull is a good communicator, but look at the polls, and look at the leadership ratings.

    And again look at the polls.

  12. “Shorten is a terrible communicator”

    Shorten has a lifetime of experience of people underestimating him, and using that misjudgement against them, to their cost.

    You are not the first, and won’t be the last.

  13. Rex:

    Be honest, Shorten is a terrible communicator and is perpetually unpopular with polling respondents. .

    I’ll give you the second one, sure. He’s never been popular, and is pretty unlikely to become so in the future. But, as I said above, I don’t believe Shorten to be a bad communicator at all.

    Nonetheless, the Australian public seems quite content to make this unpopular man prime minister, and that’s what matters in the end. Replacing Shorten – a leader who has yet to make any major fuck-ups, is popular within his own caucus, and has the makings of a competent PM – with someone who might A) be initially popular and then completely implode, a’la Mark Latham, or B) be consistently popular, win in a landslide, and then prove to be incompetent, a’la another leader I won’t name because I can’t be bothered wasting the rest of the evening arguing about it, is a completely unnecessary risk.

  14. Asha Leu @ #1409 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:04 pm

    Rex Douglas:

    She’s a far better communicator… which is what a leader needs to sell their policies.

    Well, I’d actually dispute that first claim. Sure, in her post-politics opinion pieces she can indeed be very articulate, but I don’t remember her being much of a communicator back when she was Premier.

    But then I actually consider Shorten quite a skilled communicator himself. Not a very charismatic one, no, nor one that’s ever going to attract the sort of following the likes of Rudd or Obama had, but whenever I see him speak to the media, he’s clear, concise, articulate, and on-message.

    Even so… do you not think that Keneally might bring a little bit of, well, baggage with her that would undermine her great communication skills just a little?

    You’re of course entitled to your view of Shortens communication skills, but I and many polling respondents strongly disagree.

    Keneally may or may not be seen to have ‘baggage’, who knows, doesn’t matter anyway as she seems happily employed in the media with no intention of re-entering the fray.

  16. JM @ #1412 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:11 pm

    “Shorten is a terrible communicator”

    Shorten has a lifetime of experience of people underestimating him, and using that misjudgement against them, to their cost.

    You are not the first, and won’t be the last.

    That may all be true, but the criticism itself is more-or-less valid. Shorten is not a charismatic public speaker.

  19. I’ve heard Shorten give some ripper speeches in Parliament.

    Funny how they don’t get media coverage…

    Must be the context…

  21. Asha Leu @ #1413 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:15 pm

    Rex:

    Be honest, Shorten is a terrible communicator and is perpetually unpopular with polling respondents. .

    I’ll give you the second one, sure. He’s never been popular, and is pretty unlikely to become so in the future. But, as I said above, I don’t believe Shorten to be a bad communicator at all.

    Nonetheless, the Australian public seems quite content to make this unpopular man prime minister, and that’s what matters in the end. Replacing Shorten – a leader who has yet to make any major fuck-ups, is popular within his own caucus, and has the makings of a competent PM – with someone who might A) be initially popular and then completely implode, a’la Mark Latham, or B) be consistently popular, win in a landslide, and then prove to be incompetent, a’la another leader I won’t name because I can’t be bothered wasting the rest of the evening arguing about it, is a completely unnecessary risk.

    Labor’s polling lead has very little to do with Shorten and a whole lot more to do with the current govt’s complete ineptitude. You know that deep down.

  23. I stand corrected, if we are 2 weeks away from the House of Reps, then we may get a NewsPoll this evening.
    Certainly there has been a lot of political news for our analysts to digest and link to a ‘bounce’ or not.

    Also we might get an IPSOS before parliament rises for the year.

  25. AFAIK, the Sky ReachTel PPM poll is the only one which forces participants to choose, comes out at 51/49. Shows that if people really have to choose, there’s nothing in it.

  27. bemused @ #1424 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:32 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1415 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    Confessions @ #1410 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:07 pm

    Rex:

    A lot of people think Turnbull is a good communicator, but look at the polls, and look at the leadership ratings.

    And again look at the polls.

    One can’t properly communicate what one doesn’t believe in…

    Is that your problem Rex?
    You don’t believe in the ALP?

    The soul-less ALP that the treasonous Rudd left us with ? ….. pretty much

  28. Rex:

    Rather, the Democrats lost the election.

    …and the end result was Donald Trump in the White House. Just as there is a very strong likelihood that Shorten will be living in the Lodge within a year and a half.

    You’re right. Much of the Coalition’s current dire polling position is the result of their own fuck-ups. The same can be said of most governments who are on the nose. But if there is one thing that had proven the saviour of poorly-performing governments time and time again, it is an incompetent opposition. I don’t think you can discount just how little ammunition this particularly opposition has given the government to latch onto, and a lot of that comes down to Shorten’s steady performance and how united and disciplined the Labor caucus has (mostly) been under his leadership.

    Were Labor still behind in the polls, or were things a lot closer… yeah, it would probably be time to look into electing someone with a bit more public appeal. But at this stage, with an election win looking increasingly likely, I think ensuring that the opposition leader is someone who will be a competent PM and has the overwhelming support of a united party is much more important than whether they are popular or not.

  29. “Shorten is not a charismatic public speaker.”

    He is no Obama nor Churchill, sure.

    But Howard was not exactly Mr Charisma either.

    Charismatic gets you Turnbulls and Trumps.

  30. Rex:

    Irrespective of whether Shorten is or isn’t a good communicator, a Shorten Labor government is going to be one heck of a better government for Australia than the incumbent one is.

  32. Rex:

    The soul-less ALP that the treasonous Rudd left us with ? ….. pretty much

    I find it interesting that someone who is so against Rudd also continually advocates for a repeat of the same situation that made Rudd opposition leader to begin with.

  33. Asha Leu @ #1432 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Rex:

    The soul-less ALP that the treasonous Rudd left us with ? ….. pretty much

    I find it interesting that someone who is so against Rudd also continually advocates for a repeat of the same situation that made Rudd opposition leader to begin with.

    …or Hawke Prime Minister …oh hang on…

  34. Confessions says:

    A lot of people think Turnbull is a good communicator,

    Why anyone would think that he is a “good communicator” is beyond me.

  35. sprocket_ @ #1396 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:38 pm

    So the argument put by Adani, and parroted by Turnbull, Friedneburg, Canavan and their fellow coal,pushers is that the poor millions in India are lacking cheap coal power, and it is our moral imperative to flood them with cheap Adani coal.

    I have not heard too much from them about the chronic and worsening hazardous pollution levels in New Delhi and elsewhere.

    And not forgetting that the poor millions are substantially not on the grid and crying out for some local renewables, like domestic solar

  36. I really want the YES vote to be clear and Dean Smith’s bill to be quickly done and dusted for one reason in particular and that is to get that disgusting Lyle Shelton OUT OF MY FACE!

  37. a r @ #1416 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 4:18 pm

    JM @ #1412 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:11 pm

    “Shorten is a terrible communicator”

    Shorten has a lifetime of experience of people underestimating him, and using that misjudgement against them, to their cost.

    You are not the first, and won’t be the last.

    That may all be true, but the criticism itself is more-or-less valid. Shorten is not a charismatic public speaker.

    You have clearly never heard Shorten speak in the flesh. He comes across several orders of magnitude better than he does on TV.

  39. BK:

    If the experience in the US is any indication , even legislating for marriage equality doesn’t rid the media of these disgraceful religious bigots!

  40. poroti
    I wonder which characteristics of good communication of Turnbull it is that people think he possesses.
    Fluency – NO
    Expressions of complete trains of thought – NO
    Umms and ahs, etc – LOTS
    Waffling – PLENTY
    Not addressing the question – FREQUENTLYHave I missed anything?

  41. I can see Shorten as PM being very disappointing to many Australians – that being the readership of The Australian.
    From reading the comments they expect:
    the 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse,
    droughts,
    boat loads of refugees,
    high taxes,
    mandatory same sex marriage,
    high deficit,
    17% interest rates,
    20% inflation,
    no electricity, all coal power plants shut down

    and worse of all – more public servants and better public services.

  42. BK @ #1436 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:56 pm

    I really want the YES vote to be clear and Dean Smith’s bill to be quickly done and dusted for one reason in particular and that is to get that disgusting Lyle Shelton OUT OF MY FACE!

    Happy Days BK.

    Sheldon and the rest of them always seem to see the world through the eyes of the sinner, not the healed. (Funny that.) Everywhere everything is sin. And I think that’s a big part of what is so repulsive about them.

  43. grimace @ #1437 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:56 pm

    You have clearly never heard Shorten speak in the flesh. He comes across several orders of magnitude better than he does on TV.

    Yes. I don’t think I’ve heard any major politicians speak in the flesh.

    The problem is my experience is probably not far off the norm for most people. Coming across well both on TV and in person is an important skill in politics.

  44. zoomster @ #1419 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 5:51 pm

    I’ve heard Shorten give some ripper speeches in Parliament.

    Funny how they don’t get media coverage…

    Yeah, funny that.

    Vogon Poet @ #1425 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 6:06 pm

    AFAIK, the Sky ReachTel PPM poll is the only one which forces participants to choose, comes out at 51/49. Shows that if people really have to choose, there’s nothing in it.

    Bingo.

    Asking people for their choice on a binary proposition isn’t exactly rigorous if it doesn’t force the choice. ‘Undecided’ or ‘Other’ is not a valid option on the ballot paper.

  45. Rex Douglas @ #1427 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:39 pm

    bemused @ #1424 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:32 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1415 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:17 pm

    Confessions @ #1410 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 7:07 pm

    Rex:

    A lot of people think Turnbull is a good communicator, but look at the polls, and look at the leadership ratings.

    And again look at the polls.

    One can’t properly communicate what one doesn’t believe in…

    Is that your problem Rex?
    You don’t believe in the ALP?

    The soul-less ALP that the treasonous Rudd left us with ? ….. pretty much

    You missed your vocation in comedy Rex. 😆

  46. We should apply the “Adani factor” to any claimed benefits for the resurrected TPP, the zombie pact that apparently can’t be killed.

    And what is the Adani factor? It is equal to 0.0521*.

    No one seems to know much about the TPP. It is beloved of Right Wing politicians and multinationals, in spite of projections that the benefits to the economy over a decade will be barely noticeable, so it can’t be good.

    * Calculated as the ratio of the only known realistic estimates of jobs to be created by Adani, divided by the currently claimed number, i.e 1,564/30,000

  47. BK @ #1440 Sunday, November 12th, 2017 – 8:01 pm

    poroti
    I wonder which characteristics of good communication of Turnbull it is that people think he possesses.
    Fluency – NO
    Expressions of complete trains of thought – NO
    Umms and ahs, etc – LOTS
    Waffling – PLENTY
    Not addressing the question – FREQUENTLYHave I missed anything?

    Having a message, as in something to say, as in a principled agenda.

  48. Turnbull does certainly have a certain degree of gravitas, and can be quite the compelling speaker when not under pressure and free to speak his mind. But not so much since becoming PM – it’s a different kind of communication when you have to watch every word you say and you’re under constant scrutiny and criticism. In Turnbull, that tends to result in constant rambling as he tries to qualify and rationalise every single thing he says, and when he’s angry he just goes off the reservation into hyperbolic outrage.

    Compare to Shorten, who may be rather boring and ininspiring, but gets to the point clearly, concisely, and competently, and remain unfettered under pressure. The latter will likely prove an asset when his future government inevitably finds itself facing its first set of crises.

  50. As for Hawke, I’d argue he’s the more of an exception rather than a rule when it comes to last minute leadership changes. But, yes, replacing Shorten could work wonders for Labor, leading them to a historic landslide and decades in power. It could also be an unmitigated disaster, a classic example of defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. We won’t know until it happens. But right now, things seem to be working out pretty well for Labor, so why take the risk?

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