Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor bounces back in the Essential poll after a brief lull, as respondents mark the government down on the National Broadband Network.

Courtesy of The Guardian, this week’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead bouncing back to 54-46, after two weeks at 52-48. Primary votes will have to wait for later. The poll also has particularly interesting supplementary questions this week in relation to the National Broadband Network. Only 24% of respondents expressed support for the Coalition government’s fibre-to-the-node downgrade, compared with 43% who preferred Labor’s abandoned fibre-to-the-premises plan. The network’s failures are attributed to the government by 39%, compared with only 19% for Labor. Fifty-four per cent rated that the NBN would “fail to adequately meet Australia’s future internet requirements”, with 23% saying otherwise. However, 52% thought the NBN had improved their service (presumably where applicable), compared with only 17% who thought it worse and 28% about the same.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,175 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. A bit of discord in the X team:

    A former election candidate has thrown a spanner in the works of replacing Nick Xenophon in the Senate.

    Mr Xenophon has resigned from the Senate to contest the March 2018 South Australian state election, endorsing his principal adviser Rex Patrick to replace him.

    But the South Australian parliament – which needs to hold a joint sitting to endorse a replacement – has received a nomination from former Nick Xenophon Team 2016 candidate Tim Storer and advice is being sought on how to deal with the unusual situation.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/candidate-challenges-xenophon-nominee/news-story/dbd109dbaea634915da5f17018f90079

  2. A predictable ‘Phase 2’ –

    A top Facebook executive has said shadowy Russian-back groups used the social networking platform to create mayhem during the 2016 US election, then set about raising doubts about the validity of Donald Trump’s victory.

    While Mr Trump denies colluding with Russia, his campaign benefited from fake news and other malicious activity targeting his opponent Hillary Clinton.

    But the treatment changed for the new President once he had found his way into the White House.

    Facebook’s General Counsel Colin Stretch told a US senate inquiry Mr Trump was soon being targeted by the same fake accounts that had been used to attack Mrs Clinton.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-01/russian-facebook-posts-sowed-division/9107682

  3. Glad they’re stopping climbing Uluru.

    Respect for our first Australians has always been sadly lacking … this, at least, is one step closer to some respect.

  4. Barney

    That is all fine if we have world enough and time.

    I’d be interested in knowing how the HC does regard the time element, given that you might only have a week’s notice of an election.

    The trouble with subjectivity is that it works both ways – how do you judge is a country is simply stuffing you around? (The classic, “You should have used Form 1C …but the staff member I talked to said to use Form 1B!”)

  5. Respect for our first Australians has always been sadly lacking … this, at least, is one step closer to some respect.

    I like it also because it kicks back against the belief that every patch of rock and dirt and water on this planet is there for humans to tread on, ride on, shoot things from, plant on, dig minerals up from, cut trees down and pave a road over.

  6. I suppose I can understand (to some extent) Republicans standing by Trump no matter what he says or does, or how objectively badly he performs his office, but only up to a point.

    I’m a “yellow dog” Labor supporter. That means that if Labor literally endorsed a yellow dog, say a Golden Retriever, as its candidate for North Sydney, I would vote for him or her, or at least vote for a Green or other left/centre-left candidate and preference said dog above the Liberal candidate. The Coalition want to tear down the country I grew up in and replace it with some sort of neoliberal / crony-capitalist nightmare. Even if Bill Shorten was as bad a human being as Coalition propaganda (or even Rex) would have it, I would still vote for the yellow dog. It wouldn’t matter how competent the Coalition were or Labor were, I want none of the Coalition’s program so competence is irrelevant. As it is, they have never had that saving grace since they regained Federal office, while Labor, not perfect by any means, does.

    The only circumstance in which I would vote Liberal would be if we faced the sort of choice faced by the French in their election earlier this year.

    I suppose that Trump supporters and even mainstream Republicans feel the same about way about Democrats, and about people they call ‘liberals’ (whom many also call ‘communists’, ‘Godless heathens’, etc).

    One apparent difference between myself and many (but not all) Trump supporters is that I would know my candidate was a dog.

  7. [zoomster
    Barney

    That is all fine if we have world enough and time.

    I’d be interested in knowing how the HC does regard the time element, given that you might only have a week’s notice of an election.

    The trouble with subjectivity is that it works both ways – how do you judge is a country is simply stuffing you around? (The classic, “You should have used Form 1C …but the staff member I talked to said to use Form 1B!”)]

    Unfortunately in that case you’re not eligible to stand.

    I think the Roberts case highlights this.

    His ineffective early attempts were not saved by his last minute panic attempt.

    Your one week example basically equates to Roberts last minute panic atempt.

  8. Interesting development. Jay Weatherill thinking of returning the 1975 favour. Seeking legal advice regarding appointing replacement for Xenophon.

    Really will be having interesting results if that happens

  9. zoomster @ #953 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 2:24 pm

    The trouble with subjectivity is that it works both ways – how do you judge is a country is simply stuffing you around?

    If you could prove that you received incorrect instructions from the official authority on the matter, and that you followed them to the letter, that might save you (assuming, of course, that the other country is legitimately and officially stuffing you around, and that you haven’t merely been incompetent or lazy or rushed in obtaining correct advice).

    I expect the HC to draw a line at clear, deliberate, and persistent attempts by foreign governments to sabotage renunciation attempts. Otherwise I don’t think the HC cares (nor should they).

  10. Good of WA parliament to issue apology to LGBTI people. Good to hear Uluru climbing ban has happened.

    There are still some things getting bettier.

  11. Robert Mueller finds intensely personal way to put the screws to Donald Trump Opinion by Bill Palmer

    Two days after Robert Mueller arrested a pair of Donald Trump’s campaign advisers and announced a guilty plea from a third campaign adviser, Mueller is embarking on a whole new way to screw with Trump – and this time it’s intensely personal. Maybe it’s just happenstance that Mueller’s next move is going to leave Trump squirming in a no-win situation, or maybe Mueller is just that much of a stone cold player. Either way, this is flat out sinister.

    Mueller recently interviewed former White House senior advisers Sean Spicer and Reince Priebus about the meeting in which Donald Trump and his team plotted how to cover up the real reason for Donald Trump Jr’s Russia meeting. Trump couldn’t care less about Spicer and Priebus, and he probably thinks they’re too milquetoast to have done much damage to him anyway (for the record, he’s wrong about this). But now Mueller is just a few days away from interviewing Hope Hicks about her role in that same meeting. For Trump, this a real problem.

    No one knows precisely what Hope Hicks does in Trump’s dysfunctional White House, where almost no one’s actual job duties line up with their official title. Hicks has held various job titles, but none of those jobs have involved interacting with the public. We do know this, however: according to widespread reporting, Hicks is Trump’s closest and most trusted adviser. Everyone has their pet theory on why, and it doesn’t really matter, except that he clearly considers her to be very important to him. No matter how she handles her testimony, he can’t win.

    If Hope Hicks gives up Donald Trump on obstruction of justice to Robert Mueller, then Trump is screwed from a criminal standpoint. If Hicks is uncooperative during her testimony, she’ll be indicted for conspiracy to obstruct, and she’ll be arrested – leaving Trump without the adviser he likes and cares about the most. For Trump, this is an intensely personal no-win situation, and that fact surely isn’t lost on Mueller.

  12. Time to join the UK tories and try your luck getting elected there:

    BREAKING
    Parry confirmed to be British
    3:43PMROSIE LEWIS, GREG BROWN
    Senate president Stephen Parry has confirmation from the UK government he is a British citizen.

  13. citizen

    Time to join the UK tories and try your luck getting elected there:

    “BREAKING
    Parry confirmed to be British

    ******************************************

    How many MORE are there ????????? ……..audit the whole lot of them ….

  14. [citizen
    Time to join the UK tories and try your luck getting elected there:

    BREAKING
    Parry confirmed to be British
    3:43PMROSIE LEWIS, GREG BROWN
    Senate president Stephen Parry has confirmation from the UK government he is a British citizen.
    ]

    Who does he give his resignation to? 🙂

  15. A R

    Milquetoast?

    *************************************

    milquetoast – noun – North American : Milquetoast; plural noun: Milquetoasts; noun: milquetoast; plural noun: milquetoasts

    a person who is timid or submissive.

    “a frail, milquetoast character”

    milquetoast
    A word originating from a comic strip character in the 1920’s named Casper Milquetoast. The word has come to define someone unassertive and timid.

  16. [Rex Douglas
    Until there is an audit re citizenship, this parliament should be regarded as illegitimate.

    AUDIT NOW !!]

    You’re definitely not left wing Rex, how is it illegitimate?

    Plus this is too much fun!!!! 🙂

  17. Another master stroke ?

    News Corp has halved in value since spin off

    Rupert Murdoch’s decision to split his media empire four years ago has halved the value of News Corp’s directly controlled businesses, which include its Australian newspapers, Foxtel, The Wall Street Journal and HarperCollins.

    The $4.7 billion loss, which has been concealed by News Corp’s investment in property-marketer REA Group, illustrates how global investors aren’t convinced the once-pioneering Adelaide-founded media company can thrive in the digital era.

    …”The reality is that all of those assets are in the declining phase of their life cycles and falling in value,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew McLeod wrote.

    …Crucially, Mr Murdoch allocated a 62 per cent REA stake to News Corp. Without it, News Corp shares could have lost half their value. Instead the shares have fallen 17 per cent since the spin off, and only REA’s strong performance has stopped them falling further.

    Meanwhile, the main US share index, the S&P 500, rose 53 per cent, demonstrating how New York-based News Corp has missed the big rally in US stocks.

    The company’s main problem is that four of its five businesses are shrinking, according to Morgan Stanley: Australian, British and American newspapers, American shopping coupons, Foxtel and Fox Sports. The fifth, book publishing, is holding steady.

    …Competition from the internet is slowly defeating the aggressive company. Consumers seeking news, entertainment and sport have never had so many choices and such little cost.

    …When News Corp said in 2012 it was investigating a company split, some commentators questioned if the newspaper side could survive without the profits of the movie and TV businesses.

    “Spinning off New Corp print division will produce a company with vast losses,” New York media writer Michael Wolff said at the time. “Not sure how shareholders could sustain WSJ, [New York] Post, Times hole.”

    Today, that prediction seems extreme. Despite the losses, News Corp, generated $US8.1 billion revenue last financial year, a fall of 2 per cent from the previous year.

    http://www.afr.com/leadership/news-corp-has-halved-in-value-since-spin-off-20171031-gzbtbk

  18. Rupert Murdoch’s decision to split his media empire four years ago has halved the value of News Corp’s directly controlled businesses, which include its Australian newspapers, Foxtel, The Wall Street Journal and HarperCollins.

    The $4.7 billion loss, which has been concealed by News Corp’s investment in property-marketer REA Group, illustrates how global investors aren’t convinced the once-pioneering Adelaide-founded media company can thrive in the digital era.

    Perhaps PB could pass the hat around for donations to Rupert. Every little bit helps.

  19. Why on Earth would Labor want an audit on citizenship? They’re confident in their internal processes, so they should let the fun continue. Death by a thousand cuts doesn’t apply to them regardless of what Bananby says.

  20. Question

    An Audit might force an election, so I’m not entirely against it.

    ************************************

    Yes – good point Question – and perhaps a positive change of Govt !!!!

  21. [Question
    An Audit might force an election, so I’m not entirely against it.
    ]

    Remember any early election would be House of Reps only.

    I doubt Labor would want a mid term Senate election, much better for them to have both together.

  22. autocrat

    Why on Earth would Labor want an audit on citizenship? They’re confident in their internal processes, so they should let the fun continue

    **************************

    If so, then Labor have nothing to worry about – but it might flush out a whole heap of LNPs – and so goes Trumbles majority !

  23. phoenixRED @ #980 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 4:10 pm

    Question

    An Audit might force an election, so I’m not entirely against it.

    ************************************

    Yes – good point Question – and perhaps a positive change of Govt !!!!

    We have a long list of things that need fixing, so perhaps a stuffed up Senate is worth it.

    A selfish example is my internet is due to be stuffed up next Sept.

  24. Yes. If Labor is confident then there’s no reason for then to not welcome an audit.

    Apart from standard caveats around the mechanics of who conducts the audit. I could understand, say, if Labor did not want an audit that’s directly administered by the Coalition.

    But an audit run by a mutually agreed third-party? I’d fully support something like that, and Labor should too (while simultaneously damning the government for wasting taxpayer funds on its waste-of-time independent audit while we’re in the midst of a budget crisis).

  25. We’re pleased to let you know we have started shipping to many of our customers. Whilst we have been closely monitoring the ramp-up of our production, with necessary caution to make sure everything is of the highest quality, it has not yet reached full capacity. When mass manufacturing, we produce a very large number of units per day. The yield continuously improves but is difficult to predict until we reach a stable rate.

    This does mean that we are unable to let you know when your nuraphone will ship as the order of delivery depends on a few factors, including your purchase date and geographical location.

    Merde.

  26. Question

    A selfish example is my internet is due to be stuffed up next Sept.

    It looks like with no real notice they’ve doing mine at the mine at the moment. One of the hydraulic machines that puts the cable under cross streets appeared on Monday morning on one of the main entry roads and at least one new green box has appeared on the kerb.

    I’d been hoping they wouldn’t get started in my suburb until after the next election and the chance to get at least fibre to the kerb might exist.

    Alas, it appears that fibre to the node is what I’ll get.

  27. shellbell
    I wonder if the British High Commission correspondence reads:

    (a) We are pleased to inform…;
    (b) We regret to inform…

    Perhaps the correspondence reads “Dear Mr Parry (you will understand why it is no longer appropriate to address you as Senator Parry)”

  28. CTar1 @ #992 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 4:30 pm

    Question

    A selfish example is my internet is due to be stuffed up next Sept.

    It looks like with no real notice they’ve doing mine at the mine at the moment. One of the hydraulic machines that puts the cable under cross streets appeared on Monday morning on one of the main entry roads and at least one new green box has appeared on the kerb.

    I’d been hoping they wouldn’t get started in my suburb until after the next election and the chance to get at least fibre to the kerb might exist.

    Alas, it appears that fibre to the node is what I’ll get.

    Commiserations. The way it is going 5G could become a better option before I have to switch.

  29. Question @ #995 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 4:34 pm

    CTar1 @ #992 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 4:30 pm

    Question

    A selfish example is my internet is due to be stuffed up next Sept.

    It looks like with no real notice they’ve doing mine at the mine at the moment. One of the hydraulic machines that puts the cable under cross streets appeared on Monday morning on one of the main entry roads and at least one new green box has appeared on the kerb.

    I’d been hoping they wouldn’t get started in my suburb until after the next election and the chance to get at least fibre to the kerb might exist.

    Alas, it appears that fibre to the node is what I’ll get.

    Commiserations. The way it is going 5G could become a better option before I have to switch.

    Or even 4G 🙂

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