Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor bounces back in the Essential poll after a brief lull, as respondents mark the government down on the National Broadband Network.

Courtesy of The Guardian, this week’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead bouncing back to 54-46, after two weeks at 52-48. Primary votes will have to wait for later. The poll also has particularly interesting supplementary questions this week in relation to the National Broadband Network. Only 24% of respondents expressed support for the Coalition government’s fibre-to-the-node downgrade, compared with 43% who preferred Labor’s abandoned fibre-to-the-premises plan. The network’s failures are attributed to the government by 39%, compared with only 19% for Labor. Fifty-four per cent rated that the NBN would “fail to adequately meet Australia’s future internet requirements”, with 23% saying otherwise. However, 52% thought the NBN had improved their service (presumably where applicable), compared with only 17% who thought it worse and 28% about the same.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,175 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. briefly
    Or what it actually and clearly meant is I’d be amused by seeing the about faces on the matter by some here because Labor is inherently infailable so if Lablr made a mistake it’d suddenly be of significantly lesser importance (you were not included in any case). Especially given the framing. The ability to read complex conspiracy and hidden meaning that aren’t present in statements isn’t actually a strength.

  2. Zoomster if you think that context can’t justify it then you should argue for the banning of the Godfather for crimes against horses and pretty young Sicilian women.

  3. “The attack took place starting at daylight and 2 British Divisions were the first to attack. The ‘city’ was attacked on 3 sides during the day and the charge was just the final one.”

    There is a tendency to focus on Australians, and actually belittle or ignore British contributions in some of the famous actions Australians have been involved in which is a bit sad. Actions like this are all multifaceted.

    Another good example is Tobruk. 9th would not have held it long if not for the British artillery, but no way it would have held if not for the 9th in the posts on the front line. There is this kind of legend about British officer incompetence (Haig WWI i reckon..) but there were a lot of good ones in the mix as well. Particularly after the early WWII culling involved in the fall of France.

  4. KayJay

    “phoenixRED (Block)
    Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 12:16 pm
    Comment #838”

    When you’re screwing other women, think of me.

    ********************************

    I Wouldn’t Take Her To A Dog Fight,Cause I’m Afraid She’d Win

    If I Can’t Be Number One In Your Life, Then Number Two On You

    I’ve Got Tears In My Ears From Lyin’ On My Back and Cryin’ Over You

  5. Haven’t heard a peep from Greensborough Growler on the 77% return rate so far for the postal survey. The ‘36%’ figure is looking more like the no side at this point.

  6. shiftaling

    There’s also a considerable difference between watching a character in a movie commit a violent act and your own character doing the same.

    But it also might explain why I don’t enjoy ‘The Godfather”…

  7. El

    Sort of like the leap Green supporters did here from ‘it’s not fair that Waters & Ludlam should go’ to ‘aren’t they wonderfully principled and upright for doing the right thing’?

  8. “I admit I want to peer into an alternate universe version of tomorrow where a Labor MP admits to holding dual citizenship just to see the reactions and whiplash re-evaluations here.”

    Be interesting, but nothing is indicating so far any deficiency in the ALP’s vetting procedures. And, i’m pretty sure that by now the LNP dirt unit would have moved on harassing the ALP about this, via their tame media mates, if there was any member that could be targeted.

  9. phoenixRED (Block)
    Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 12:27 pm
    Comment #856

    Please release me.

    I mean it ❗

    Release me, let me go ❗

    I’m off to watch the last two episodes of Bosch series 3.

    Good afternoon ladeez and gennermun.
    😜

  10. Question @ #842 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 11:20 am

    I see GTA5 is currently on Steam for half price @ $37.50. Quite amazing that a game released 2.5 years ago can still charge US$75. I’m almost tempted 🙂

    It’s worth it, though you should have some fairly decent graphics hardware to take full advantage. Or if you somehow missed playing The Witcher 3, get that one first.

    guytaur @ #863 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 11:32 am

    SBSNews: Queensland Premier says there is no conflict between support for mining giant Adani and Great Barrier Reef bit.ly/2xIa3iW

    I think the Premier will regret saying this.

    Indeed. Wasn’t there a post just a couple days ago about how the QLD government was going to campaign on renewables? You can’t do that and back Adani at the same time.

  11. “I admit I want to peer into an alternate universe version of tomorrow where a Labor MP admits to holding dual citizenship just to see the reactions and whiplash re-evaluations here.”

    I would be interested to see the reactions and whiplash re-evaluations of the MSM.

  12. Although all things are possible, I really can’t see a high chance of any Federal Labor MP being caught up in the dual citizenship thing.

    If it were left to individual State branches to do the vetting, maybe, because some of them are pretty strapped for resources, but candidates are vetted by both the State branch and the Fed campaign team.

    As I said earlier, they would have to (i) lie to the party on their form about their parents and grandparents or (ii) lie when they were asked, as a follow up to the above, about whether or not they had taken steps to renounce.

    It would take actual effort.

  13. KayJay

    “Please release me.

    I mean it ❗

    Release me, let me go ❗

    ***************************

    OK …….. Since You Bought The Waterbed We’ve Slowly Drifted Apart
    I’m Sorry I Made You Cry, But At Least Your Face Is Cleaner

  14. It’s already Bill Shorten’s fault that there’s no audit stopping the Nats and Greens and Libs and One Nation from making mistakes. A Labor example wouldn’t change anything.

  15. Lizzie
    Context ?

    I’m pretty sure the only thing Anastacia is on generally is the receiving end of a fairly brutal Parliamentary floor and harsh electoral realities after leading her party to a victory no one thought she’d achieve.

  16. zoomster
    We already know that one Federal Labor Member probably technically submitted their renunciation forms too late since they didn’t have confirmation of renunciation before close of nomination. I don’t think that should result in a disqualification but it does suggest that things aren’t next water tight at every stop (by your own description it’s unlikely that the usual process if done properly would have allowed such a potential ambiguity at all).

  17. Elaugaufein

    I agree, perhaps she really wasn’t prepared to win. She seems naive to me. But trying to please everyone won’t work and she’s very wrong on this.

    Context: Queensland Premier says there is no conflict between support for mining giant Adani and Great Barrier Reef bit.ly/2xIa3iW

  18. Lizzie
    Maybe she’s aware of top secret plans for efficient atmospheric carbon capture and containment or a plan for a very big atmospherically controlled ‘bubble’ over the Reef ? I got nothing otherwise.

  19. Elaugaufein @ #877 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 11:53 am

    Lizzie
    Maybe she’s aware of top secret plans for efficient atmospheric carbon capture and containment or a plan for a very.big atmospherically controlled ‘bubble’ over the Reef ? I got nothing otherwise.

    I think the one thing that may save her on Adani is that both PHON and the LNP are going to be just as pro-Adani. The only option for voters who oppose Adani is The Greens.

  20. El

    Yes, that’s the sort of situation which might catch a Labor MP out. In every campaign, there’s candidates who leave things to the last minute (despite HO hysterics) or situations where candidates are brought on board at the last minute (usually these are confined to non winnable seats and it’s not an issue). But, given the processes Labor does have in place, any candidate who does get caught out only has themselves to blame, and I’m not sure any of us here will necessarily treat them with sympathy.

  21. ..I will add, though, that Keay took the ‘reasonable steps’ required. You can’t be held hostage to the bureaucracy of other countries – if they lose your application, or simply never get around to processing it, that does not cancel out the fact that you took ‘reasonable steps’.

  22. briefly @ #801 Wednesday, November 1st, 2017 – 11:19 am

    It’s puzzling that anyone would want to re-enact a battle. The mock-up at Beersheba seems to me like adults playing morbid dress-ups. Battle are scenes of organised intentional killing. They should certainly be remembered, but turned into japes? I don’t think so.

    I understand the fascination, but am heartily sick of the political traduction that is taking place.

    My grandfather was there, and spoke of it with some pride – though he would never speak of his time at Gallipoli, from which he was evacuated with trench fever. Ken Hamilton was a squadron commander in the 3rd Light Horse, who took part in the successful (dismounted) attack on Tel el Saba, the fortified heights to the NE of Beersheba on the morning of the 30th, and watched the charge from Chaytor’s HQ on the Tel. Ken had the heel of his boot shot off in the subsequent attack by German aircraft, but took part in the rest of that campaign: Gaza, Jerusalem & Damascus – where he met T E Lawrence. This was the stuff of family legend long before it became the centerpiece of the political theatre now being flaunted.

  23. A R,
    My son still plays a lot of CS GO. He is about to get Dark Souls. The “kids” (young adults) both want CupHead. I like linear stuff like Tomb Raider because you can play it quick. Whitcher 3 looks very involved.

  24. @ Elau – why do you say it was too late.

    The ruling is that you need to have renounced, or taken reasonable steps to renounce.

    Correctly filling out the form and sending it to the correct person sounds like reasonable steps to me?

  25. Adani is also very popular in the areas that see the mine and port as jobs that will save their dieing regions. Which is optimistic at best considering mines tend to use FIFO workers who don’t leave camp when on shift and many if the indirect jobs will be far away from them, but people will clutch at any straw while drowning.

  26. Voice / Cat
    You can’t be held hostage to them but you are susceptible to any reasonable processes they have in place*, so if rather than a confirmation instead a request for some kind of bureaucratic clarification or other non-hostile technical necessity arrived you wouldn’t have actually renounced until that was resolved. Its a fairly minor quibble in most practical cases, which is why I said I don’t think it should result in disqualification.

    *Otherwise shouting your renunciation into space is valid.

  27. Well, I’m playing Super Mario Odyssey atm. However, very much looking forward to Spelunky 2!

    My youngest son just got Assassins Creed Origins and Shadow of War. 🙂

  28. ‘….you wouldn’t have actually renounced until that was resolved’

    You are not required to have your renouncement accepted. You are required to have taken reasonable steps to renounce.

  29. Currently mentally psyching myself up for a new go of Cities Skylines.

    Should I actually study up on urban planning and design a concept beforehand?

    Nah, I’ll just adapt as I go.

    In about 2 weeks, I’ll report back that my city is at a standstill and half of it has burnt down when the fire brigade couldn’t get there to save it.

  30. Elaugaufein
    zoomster
    We already know that one Federal Labor Member probably technically submitted their renunciation forms too late since they didn’t have confirmation of renunciation before close of nomination.

    This is incorrect. Renunciation had occurred prior to nomination. The candidate cannot be responsible for the time involved in the completion of bureaucratic processes of another country. Sykes is quite clear about that.

  31. The court has so far viewed reasonable steps as anything that isn’t an actively hostile attempt by a foreign power to prevent your revocation given your circumstances (to the point Dastaryi (and it can be pretty safely inferred his ALP advice) thought 25 Grand spent on renunciation was potentially within those bounds of reasonable). I wouldn’t expect them to hold that a potentially invalid / incorrect renouncement having been sent qualifies if push came to shove, they’ve so far resolved it by whether or not you were officially a citizen of another nation at the close of nominations.

  32. Tend to concur

    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    45m
    Replying to @counterchekist
    ^ Whatever he claims his motivation(s) to be— they just provide the excuse. In reality, he’s a mentally ill thug. Period.
    15
    33
    290
    Counterchekist
    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    47m
    A sociopath killed 8 ppl today in NYC. His religion, race, sex, etc had nothing to do with it. He wanted to kill & simply found an excuse.
    27
    126
    515
    Counterchekist
    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    53m
    Replying to @lisagarner_lisa
    It’s the usual— “MUSLIMS!” from one side and “CHRISTIAN WHITE SUPREMACISTS!” from the other.

    A deranged sociopath did this. That’s it.

  33. Jeez, The Chifley Research Centre has got a high-powered new Executive Director:

    C@tmomma,
    We’re excited to today announce the appointment of Brett Gale as our new Executive Director.

    The Chifley Research Centre (CRC) is Australia’s leading progressive research institution. Established in 1996, the CRC is an independent research centre, or ‘think‐tank’, with a close relationship to the Australian Labor Party, the union movement and the broader progressive community.

    Chair of the CRC, Linda White, said she was delighted that Brett had accepted the offer to lead the work of the Chifley Research Centre. “Brett brings to the position of Executive Director a wealth of experience in government, policy and in the corporate sector. The development of strong policy is what makes good government and so we at the Chifley Research Centre look forward to continuing and expanding our work in this area under Brett’s leadership”.

    Brett comes with strong experience across the corporate, government and university sectors. He is currently Group Head of Government Affairs and Communication Strategy at Westpac. He has served as a Chief of Staff to NSW and Federal Labor Ministers including Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen. He has also held other staffing roles including Media Adviser to the NSW Minister for the Olympics during the 2000 Olympic Games.

    He has strong academic credentials for the role, having received a Littauer Award for academic achievement and class leadership while studying for his Master of Public Administration at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and having worked at Yale University’s Office of International Affairs. He has a Bachelor of Economics from The University of Sydney.

    Brett also brings significant corporate affairs experience to the role which he said he was looking forward to put to work to strengthen the work of the CRC.

    “I am delighted to accept the role of Executive Director of the CRC and I look forward to working with the Board and Federal Labor on innovative public policies”, Mr Gale said.

    “I have been fortunate enough to see public policy making and influence from a variety of perspectives, and I look forward to helping the Chifley Research Centre develop a strong platform of progressive ideas that benefit the broader Australian community.”

    Brett will commence his work at the Chifley Research Centre in late January 2018.

  34. You do realise that you’re effectively arguing an incomplete or erroneous renunciation forms qualifies right ? For all the foreign law validity of such a document it could be a sheet of paper with “I , name, renounce my citizenship” on it. Some countries charge small administrative fees , what if such was not included or insufficient ?

    That’s one of the issues with letting this situation sit on foreign laws in the first place.

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