The High Court brought down its momentous ruling on the “citizenship seven” early this afternoon, which has resulted in four Senators (Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam of the Greens, Fiona Nash of the Nationals and Malcolm Roberts of One Nation) and one member of the House of Representatives (Barnaby Joyce) losing their seats. Not disqualified are Nationals Senator Matt Canavan and Senator Nick Xenophon, the latter of whom will shortly be leaving anyway. The full judgement can be read here.
Broadly speaking, the court’s unanimous decision has been to take a black-letter, conservative approach to the meaning of the section, and accept the reasoning established by the court in the Sykes v Cleary ruling in 1992. It has rejected the dissenting opinion of Justice William Deane in Sykes v Cleary, who argued the second limb of the section 44(i), ensnaring any person who is “a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”, should be understood to apply only where such rights have been actively acknowledged. As such, the court rejected various shades of argument that it was unreasonable to expect members should divest themselves of citizenship rights they do not realise they possess.
Since the court’s ruling is that the five members are retroactively disqualified from running at last year’s election, their positions will be filled by countbacks in the case of the four Senators, and by a by-election in the case of Barnaby Joyce and his seat of New England. There appears to be no reason at law why disqualified Senators could not recover their seats if their replacements agree to resign and their parties choose them to fill the resulting casual vacancy, provided they have resolved their citizenship issues in the interim. However, in none of the cases does it appear that this will happen.
To consider their circumstances in turn:
Barnaby Joyce
Most importantly, the government is now down a Deputy Prime Minister, after the court found nothing to complicate Barnaby Joyce’s status as a dual citizen of New Zealand acquired through his father. Joyce must re-contest his seat at a by-election in his seat of New England in northern New South Wales. It appears to have been agreed within the government that this will take place as soon as possible, on December 2. For now it will suffice to observe that Labor last held the seat in 1913, and has not come close to doing so in living memory. If a threat should loom to Joyce, it would appear more likely to come from an independent or minor party candidate. One of the former might be Tony Windsor, the independent member from the seat from 2001 to 2013, who fell 8.5% short of unseating Joyce in 2016 (UPDATE: Windsor has ruled this out). It should also be noted that Shooters Fishers and Farmers have polled strongly in three recent state by-elections, including a victory in the seat of Orange last year. It was presumably aided by the fact that One Nation is not officially registered at state level, a circumstance that does not apply at federal level. Ladbrokes is offering two betting options: $1.13 on Barnaby Joyce, and $5 on One Nation. Obviously a lot more will be said about this in weeks to come.
Fiona Nash
The court found nothing to complicate the fact that Nash is a dual British citizen through her Scottish-born father, which she had done nothing to renounce. The recount for her New South Wales seat makes life complicated for the Coalition in that it stands to elect a Liberal, Hollie Hughes, in place of a National.
Malcolm Roberts
Perhaps the least surprising aspect of the ruling was that Malcolm Roberts, who was born in India and did not properly renounce his British citizenship until six months after he was elected. The recount to replace him will elect Fraser Anning, about whom not much is known except that is a hotel owner from a farming background. Anning’s own eligibility appeared under a cloud due to bankruptcy proceedings but these were resolved early this month. Had it been otherwise, it would have been the fourth candidate on the One Nation who would have come into contention: Judy Smith, sister of Pauline Hanson. Suggestions that Roberts might find a way back to the Senate through the back door have been scotched by a media release on a party letterhead from Anning in which he is strongly critical of Roberts and others caught up in the controversy, and says he is “very much looking forward to being a Senator”. Roberts now says he plans to run at the looming Queensland state election.
Scott Ludlam
Here the situation was straightforward: Scott Ludlam was clearly a citizen of New Zealand, and hence ineligible under the first limb of Section 44(i). It appears to have been resolved that the Greens will accept the outcome of the recount process, which will deliver his Western Australian seat to the party’s number three candidate at last year’s double dissolution, 23-year-old disability advocate Jordon Steele-John.
Larissa Waters
The court also ruled that there was nothing to complicate the provision of Canadian nationality law that persons born in the country become citizens, and that her failure to renounce this citizenship rendered her ineligible. The recount will elect Andrew Bartlett, who held a Queensland Senate seat for the Australian Democrats from 1997 to 2008, and led the party in its terminal phase from 2004 to 2008.
Matt Canavan
Matt Canavan is off the hook because the court deemed he was not an Italian citizen. His difficulty related to the fact that he was included in a register of Italian residents abroad after his mother registered for citizenship and listed her children in the application form — which, among other things, entitled him to vote in Italian elections. However, Canavan never applied to become an Italian citizen, and the court was not of the view that the official status granted through this process amounted merely a “declaratory” acknowledgement of a status that existed in any case. The court has apparently opted to take a narrow view of the second limb of the sub-section, with his voting rights not deemed to make him “entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen”.
Nick Xenophon
Nick Xenophon has the status of a “British overseas citizen” through is Greek Cypriot father, by virtue of him having been born in a country that was a British colony at the time but has ceased to be so. The court ruled that this status does not amount to citizenship, or entitle him to the rights or privileges thereof, as it does not entail right of abode in the United Kingdom, nor entail a pledge of loyalty to it.
guytaur
briefly
http://time.com/4527291/2016-election-gerrymandering/
Gerrymandering also reflects the Republicans’ strength. They have been able to win at State levels and gain control of the re-districting processes. They persist not only because of their corruption but in spite of it.
Agreed.
Time has long past to move on and kick the tories out on their sorry incompetent arses.
Barney:
I still laugh at the reports of Roberts sending an email to an unknown email address at the British Embassy with the subject line ‘Am I still a British citizen ?’
It will be interesting to see if Roberts can win a State seat in Queensland.
briefly
You don’t seem to have been paying attention. I said we are at peak right wing.
This will change. The Resistance is real.
As I have just finished saying to Fess. The right is so strong they can’t face their own voters in Town Halls and thus can’t agree to pass their legislation.
They may control the White House The Congress. They don’t control the people
poroti @ #498 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 2:47 pm
He should therefor pick up the costs involved that taxpayers again are stuck with.
Plus he needs to apologist to voters and taxpayers for being incompetent and making multiple false declarations at the various elections.
This goose is involved making vital and far reaching decisions involving our country.
FMD!
Robert’s absolutely could win a state seat in Queensland, fortunately they’ve picked a specific seat he probably can’t (unless they mean Ipswich more genetically).
dave:
And remember this forceful declaration from the PM in QT?
https://twitter.com/sspencer_63/status/923754893621391360
Turnbull should resign.
poroti @ #527 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 3:47 pm
Didn’t her sister(s) use UK Passports for travel ?
And she didn’t know/ wasn’t told.
Yea right.
guytaur
briefly
You don’t seem to have been paying attention. I said we are at peak right wing.
On the contrary. I’ve been paying attention to many sources….but not so much to you. The evidence is the paleo-Right are still making gains in many places. They are emboldened everywhere. Hopefully Labor will arrest them in Australia.
briefly
Emboldened yes. Failing a lot yes. In your France example the right lost to the French left. The left propped up Macron to avoid Le Pen.
That won’t last as Le Pen loses support.
Trump is driving people away from the right. Even as Bannon tries to embrace him and declare war on him at the same time.
The emperor has no clothes and people see it.
Confessions @ #604 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 5:56 pm
Fess – Yes he should, not that he will and really few voices really in the MSM calling him out – no matter how many things he stuffs up.
Barnaby Joyce has a big job he wants to get on with. He’s writing a book to set out his agenda: “A lot of it will be politically incorrect – I want to shock, I want to startle people into action,” he tells me. To do what, exactly? “To give greater economic and personal advancement to the people in the weatherboard and iron in the regional towns.”
It’s about their economic wellbeing and their social standing. “I’m writing a comparative analysis” that looks at “the social opprobrium attached to poor white people in Australia’s towns and regions.” Joyce doesn’t use the word, but it’s about recovering respect. Respect for the people who live outside the big cities and feel overlooked.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/barnaby-joyce-makes-his-stand-20171026-gz99fx.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq
Joyce is trying to induce socially and economically repressed people in his rural electorate to vote against their own best interest. At least he does see the issue as one of equality.
Gasp!
I agree with Briefly!
The right is gaining everywhere.
As i think I said yesterday, right wing values always lurk like a dose of herpes, ready to reappear in times of stress.
The last 10 years has seen just such stress and naturally those RW values are gaining strength. The left will too but the right will probably be stronger.
Dave – that was the stupidest thing any Australian Prime Minister has ever said. I can’t think of anything even close.
Guytaur
Such optimism is nice to see even if totally misplaced.
Now in France I think you are possibly right – the left will possibly prevail, given that as a nation they are I think more fundamentally left wing.
Corbyn might do the same for the UK and even in Germany the left may re-emerge.
However where the right will take over completely is in most of Eastern Europe and in the USA, simply because the left has much less history in those nations
Jeez can’t wait.
DTT
Wrong.
The right is losing in the US.
See polling.
antonbruckner11 @ #611 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 6:16 pm
AB – I’m quietly confident he will outdo himself before long.
Really his nickname should be ‘fingers’ – as in everything he touches he fcuks.
Interesting comments from putative PHON Senator-elect Fraser Anning.
Starts off by shitcanning Malcolm Roberts, and demanding loyalty from Pauline
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNIEHkpUEAAqDw6?format=jpg&name=small
Potsed by QLD Guardian journo, so story to come…
Malcolm’s all heart – or so he would have you believe.
For her inauguration as the acting PM, Julia wore white. 😆
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-28/julie-bishop-to-be-acting-prime-minister-in-turnbulls-absence/9095914
Dave, Malcolm f…s everything up because he is a salesman. He doesn’t think about after-sales service, customer satisfaction, implementation or anything like that. Any bullshit to get through the present difficulty and then pretend it didn’t happen. Your classic scammer. Unbelievable really. You’d think he would have come out and shown a bit of contrition – a mea culpa or two. No way, he’s onto his next scam.
Guytaur, what are you on and where do I get some?
“Wrong. The right won in the US due to gerrymandering in the Presidential and House elections. The Democrats won the popular vote.”
1. Being in power is still being in power.
2. The popular vote total doesn’t matter for the White House, it never has.
3. You can’t gerrymander a Statewide vote – the term you’re looking for is “voter suppression”, in which the GOP have systematically erected barriers to POC and other Dem-leaning constituencies voting. Gerrymandering has certainly played a role in how the GOP controls Congress; however, systematic disenfranchisement of Dem-leaning constituencies plays a far larger part.
The reality is this: Despite their inability to agree upon an agenda, the Tea Party has pushed the Republican Party to heights of power not seen since just before the Great Depression.
“Same with the UK. First past the post saw Labour fall short but they won the campaign and like here the UK ended up with a weak right government instead of a strong one.”
True; however, the Tories won the popular vote – for what it’s worth. And ended up sucking May into an alliance with the DUP, than whom a nastier bunch of sectarians cannot be found.
“This has been building for a while and is going to undo the populist right.”
No evidence of it happening yet. Let’s look at the Western world’s elections of 2017:
Austrian legislative election – the far-right, populist OVP becomes the largest party in the Nationalrat, registering an 8% swing toward them.
Bulgarian general election – Centre-right GERB picks up more votes, but still falls far short of a majority – meanwhile, the nationalist and populist right-wing parties win a net 9 seats. The centre-right Reformists are excluded from the next Bulgarian Nationalist Assembly, failing to meet the 4% threshold to win any seats.
Dutch general election – Geert Wilders’ far-right, populist PVV comes in second, with centre-left PvdA (Dutch Labour Party) collapsing.
German Federal Election – Both Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU and the opposition SPD lose votes and seats to the far-right AfD, at least partly based on trumped-up “news” of mass rapes by refugees. Notably, Merkel has been unable to form a government nearly two months later, as the FDP can’t bring enough seats to a CDU/CSU/FDP coalition to hold a majority. An early election for the next Bundestag is likely.
German State Elections – the CDU/CSU picks up seats in 3 of the 4 German State-level elections happening in 2017.
French Presidential Election – The left wing ends up being locked out of the second round after the two left-wing parties split the vote in the first round, while the centre-right UMP is also excluded. The second round is between “radical centrist” (read: neoliberal social progressive) En Marche and far-right Front Nationale – and Putin attempts to interfere in favour of the hard-right candidate, as he did in the US. The EM candidate wins in a landslide, but the FN achieved its highest Presidential vote share in history in both rounds.
French Parliamentary Elections – both the UMP and PS lose more than half of their seats (PS loses nearly 80% of its seats), resulting in EM holding a sizeable majority in the French Parliament.
New Zealand – The right-wing, populist NZ First Party lost a handful of votes and three seats, but is now in coalition to form Government. Expect an early election, as Jacinda Ardern is already finding it difficult to balance her two coalition partners (Greens and NZ First) with Labour’s own policy agenda.
Serbian Presidential Election – the populist, right-wing candidate Alexsandar Vucic won the election in the first round, with 55% of the vote. His predecessor, Tomislav Nikolic, was of the same party to be sure, but he was forced to a second round in 2012.
UK General Election – May loses a net of 17 seats, reducing her from majority to minority Government. In the UK, the far-right populism may have played itself out; alternatively, the Tories could split once it becomes clear that there are no good Brexit options available.
If there’s a backlash against right-wing populism, I haven’t seen much sign of it yet!
“The sensible centre will take over and reversing neo liberalism and bringing back public utilities will be the order of the day.”
What makes you say that?
“Its no coincidence in the US that Universal Health Care is popular.”
It’s also no coincidence that every attempt to actually implement UHC has run into a tsunami of popular opposition. UHC necessarily involves tax increases to fund it, and Americans begrudge paying Uncle Sam 50c more than they begrudge paying Aetna $2.00.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-28/fracking-in-nt-economic-benefit-uncertain-says-think-tank/9096180
Matt
See this.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/01/us/wisconsin-supreme-court-gerrymander.html
antonbruckner11 @ #619 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 6:27 pm
Well the Barrister role play that he continually bungs on with all the ‘hand movements’ etc and verbal diarrhea have well and truly run their course with me.
Stopped listening.
As have many others if NewsPoll is a guide.
But the utter lack of shame about not giving a damn about the national interest etc in so many areas is just utterly pathetic.
Guytaur:
Don’t count on the SCOTUS to rule sensibly. And even if they do, the reality is that the Dems’ support base naturally concentrates in the inner urban areas – some degree of disparity in votes-per-seat will always happen.
PS: The GOP won the Congressional popular vote 49.1-48 – a 1.1% lead, even as Clinton won double that lead over Trump.
Trumpism is catching on with Gubernatorial Republicans.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/to-become-virginias-governor-in-trumps-america-gillespie-is-embracing-culture-wars/2017/10/18/40997290-ae95-11e7-be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_gillespierace945pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.ea5579cad92f
Matt
Congressional polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
guytaur
briefly
Emboldened yes. Failing a lot yes. In your France example the right lost to the French left. The left propped up Macron to avoid Le Pen.
That won’t last as Le Pen loses support.
I’m not so sure. I had a conversation this week with a French specialist in EU/French Immigration law. Her view – from the inside – is that the consensus remains unsettled in Europe. In her opinion, the impulses that drove Brexit (and she lived and studied in the UK for more than a decade leading up to the Brexit vote) also have life in them in EU-27. That is, the potential remains for cultural/social/ethnic/religious divisions to lead to the separatist break-down of the EU and for the revival of nationalist competition. This would necessarily entail a very substantial economic shock.
This is certainly what the Brexiteers hoped for. It is what the militarists in Russia hope for. It is a substrate in vernacular rightist politics across Europe.
The basic point is that the failure of laissez-faire economic and fiscal policies has not been accompanied by a revival in support for social democratic parties and politics. Far from it. Instead, we have seen neo-Fascist impulses gain acceptance and supporters, and we have seen the orthodox Right trying to shift to accommodate these impulses.
This means the obligations on the parties of the centre-left – the historical custodians of egalitarian and social democratic values and practice – is all the greater. We cannot simply assume we will win.
Briefly
No one is assuming anything.
However evidence is clear. The right has peaked. Of course its unsettled. That was my initial point. You can’t have movements if things are settled.
The trend is clear. The right have peaked. Now the left is coming back.
Even the right is being forced to talk of regulation not neo liberalism.
Trumps con was that he was going to lift up from the bottom. The Con has been exposed. The people are seeing through it.
Recognising this reality does not mean we stop fighting for these policies that work. On the contrary its morale boosting to see progress is happening.
guytaur
Briefly
No one is assuming anything.
However evidence is clear. The right has peaked. Of course its unsettled. That was my initial point. You can’t have movements if things are settled.
The trend is clear. The right have peaked. Now the left is coming back.
There is no evidence for this anywhere except Western Australia 🙂
briefly
Yeah just ignore polling.
antonbruckner11 @ #611 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 6:16 pm
Hawke’s “By 1990, no Australian child will be living in poverty” is pretty close in my book. The difference is that with Hawke it was a once-off silly ad lib, but with Turnbull it is a pattern of behaviour. He is an overconfident dilettante and always has been.
Guytaur
I think it is a bit early to be seriously looking at US polling as telling us anything. About April next year will be time to start looking seriously.
DTT
I expect polls will be lower for the GOP by 2018 for Midterms.
With arrests on Monday the start of the end of Trump and thus the GOP who embraced him is in sight.
Kevin Bonham @ #631 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 6:54 pm
Climate change doing more good than harm……..
Guytaur
No I think you just see things from a narrow perspective,. I expect the arrests to HARDEN hostility to the Democrats and give a boost to the madder elements of the Republicans.
The public always always hates attacks on the other side and it always backfires.
guytaur
briefly
Yeah just ignore polling.
Australian polling tells us that since 2016 support for Labor federally has increased slightly; support for the Gs is static; the LNP vote has splintered. It is this splintering that is impelling most of the lift in Labor’s 2PP polling. The splintering has been on the Right of the LNP. This is matched by developments in many other countries.
But go right ahead. Pretend it is not happening. Pretend that the racism, the religious bigotry, the homophobia, the sexism and the implicit violence they contain is not real.
The Silver Bodgie @ #634 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 7:02 pm
A Bad Boss is better then no Boss.
Kevin Bonham @ #631 Saturday, October 28th, 2017 – 5:54 pm
“I’m going to shirtfront Mr Putin, ah, you bet you are. You bet I am.” and “the suppository of all wisdom” are up there too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Emy4HTdPj-0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oep_DPDy6xw
briefly
Thats as people are being safe to make sure the right gets greeted with baseball bats at the next election.
Its not an indication that people are moving right. Its an indication they want to be sure we have a move to the left by installing a Labor government.
DTT
Yeah arresting people committing treason always means the loyalists lose. 🙂
The right wing will be upset. Oh dear!
MikeCarlton01: Malcolm Turnbull ! A truly deserving Right Wing F**kwit of the Week ! pic.twitter.com/6fRAcy91qe
Guytaur
It depends on whether the public/key supporters think the process is fair.
In the case of Trump he was elected AFTER saying he wanted better rleations with Russia, so the people who supported him will blame the Democrats for preventing Trump doing what he said he would do.
Also you can be certain that there will be retaliation against Democrats (it has already started) and like it or not the Clinton uranium sale stuff will be sufficiently damaging to ensure that the Mueller arrests do minimal damage.
Trouble is that whenever you set hares running to topple a person they very, very often backfire.
I predict this will happen for Mueller who himself has a few questions to answer re collusion with Russia.
DTT
You spin real well. However reality is going to bite on Monday and no amount of spin is going to stop Mueller from arresting people.
Guytaur
The problem you have is that the USA is not at war with Russia, so building a case for treason is difficult.
It is far, far, far more serious they way Netanyahoo is pulling trump’s strings but I do not see calls for inquiries or arrests.
DTT
Spin spin spin
Guytaur
He may well arrest people but the question is what will be the political impact?
If Mueller uses any part of the “dossier” then the fact that it was bought and paid for by the Hillary campaign will make it totally suspect and probably be damaging to Mueller.