ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The ReachTEL poll for October comes in not a lot different from the ReachTEL poll for September.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted last night from a sample of 2399, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, unchanged from the last poll on September 28. So far the only primary vote numbers we have are inclusive of a 9% undecided rating: at first blush, they suggest the Coalition on around 37.5%, Labor on 38.5% and the Greens on One Nation on 10% apiece, although forced responses of the undecided would probably bring the major parties back a little. Those figures should be forthcoming soon-ish.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51-49 as preferred prime minister, down from 52-48. Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is rated good or very good by 25%, poor or very poor by 40%; for Bill Shorten, the corresponding numbers are 28% and 38.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,128 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 23
1 2 3 23
  1. A Mackerras type prediction: 2018 will morph into a year that throws out the usual norms of politics.
    There will be a movement – and a longing – for an outsider to lead the nation. It’s happening around the globe, and is about to hit our shores. Malcolm has disappointed too many, after high expectations following Abbott. Bill has a past, and lacks a certain authenticity.
    So what will happen.
    It won’t be Pauline. It won’t be NX. It’s wont be Cory.
    But whoever it is will paint a big picture, a vision and a program that will appeal. It will be Macron-like in its blooming. And I think it’s coming because what we have now doesn’t cut it anymore. We will all know by next winter.

  2. Aqualung @ #20 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:48 pm

    Thanks KayJay. And did you say it will work on a Samsung phone running chrome and/or Firefox. Sorry to go through this again. I was really struggling to go backwards on that last thread

    🍰

    For Android
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin/

    This is for Firefox. Works well with my Samsung tablet and phone.

    I can’t remember if I checked Chrome on my Tablets. Having a look now. Can’t get C+ to work.
    Try using Firefox.

  3. @boerwar

    Reachtel forces a response on the PPM question, unlike other polls. Maybe when undecided on that question are pushed they go for Shorten rather than Turnbull.

  4. Boerwar @ #56 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:22 pm

    Why does Reachtel have PPM nearly level pegging when there is a significant gap in (all?) other polls?

    forced selection.

    Other polls allow a don’t know. Reachtel makes you choose. And when that happens it seems Trumble’s advantage is no real advantage.

    People might not be enthused by Shorten. But he doesn’t repel them, just leaves them wishing he was more. That won’t hurt him in an election against Trumble (or any other Lib in the current Parliament)

  5. Bemused

    Yes I am familiar with the page x GOTO.

    The blog works best I think if everybody has C+.
    For BKs posts I could have said GOTO page 4.
    Time for me to settle for viewing of BOSCH series 3.
    Toodles.

  6. KayJay @ #58 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:24 pm

    Aqualung @ #20 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:48 pm

    Thanks KayJay. And did you say it will work on a Samsung phone running chrome and/or Firefox. Sorry to go through this again. I was really struggling to go backwards on that last thread

    🍰

    For Android
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin/

    This is for Firefox. Works well with my Samsung tablet and phone.

    I can’t remember if I checked Chrome on my Tablets. Having a look now. Can’t get C+ to work.
    Try using Firefox.

    KayJay. The scales have fallen from my eyes. I bow down to you. Treats galore for you

    🍥 🍰 🎂 ☕

  7. On forests and possums. Sigh.

    State-owned logging company VicForests relied on a $4.8 million payment from the Andrews government to turn a profit this year for it’s work, including creating homes for the critically endangered Leadbeater’s possum.

    The beleaguered logging company, which has been trading at a loss for many years, has been paid to build 72 artificial tree hollows, in an experiment to see if the possums will nest in them.

    The annual report said possums had been observed nesting in 39 of the artificial hollows, in a highly encouraging sign.

    But Sarah Rees, director of conservation group My Environment, said VicForests was now in the absurd position of being paid to conserve a species it was also pushing to extinction.

    “The fact that taxpayers are subsidising an experiment to offset the killing of the Leadbeater’s possum is beyond the pale,” Ms Rees said.

    “It’s a very dangerous situation to prop up a few jobs, and they’re not even making a profit.”

    The payment, revealed in VicForests’ annual report, casts further doubt on the economic viability of Victoria’s native timber industry, and coincides with polling that shows most voters in Northcote want the government to do more to preserve the state’s native forests.

    This year the Andrews government took the unconventional step of buying the Heyfield timber mill in East Gippsland for a speculated price of about $50 million, after its private owners said they would shut the mill down, in a bid to save local jobs.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/pressure-on-andrews-as-northcote-voters-back-push-for-great-forest-national-park-20171025-gz81tq.html

  8. Aqualung

    I am just a bumbler. I have MS Word docs with Plugin addresses and various other bits and pieces.

    I expect a couple of experts will have a word or two to say about the “load more comments” problem besetting some.

    Thanks for the emoji. ☕

  9. KayJay @ #65 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:35 pm

    Bemused

    Yes I am familiar with the page x GOTO.

    The blog works best I think if everybody has C+.
    For BKs posts I could have said GOTO page 4.
    Time for me to settle for viewing of BOSCH series 3.
    Toodles.

    Apart from those who are unfortunate enough to have a platform that won’t install C+, be it on their own heads!
    The only objections I have heard to it are entirely spurious.

  10. ratsak

    In front of the curve in the early 21st century on voting for fake news bullshit artists.

    Nope, the ‘Mercans got there well before us. Voted in Dubya Bush and to prove their dumb voting superiority did it again.

  11. The only thing I have to work out now is copy and paste. I used to be able to hold my finger on the screen and the copy/paste menu used to appear in chrome. Doesn’t seem to work that way in firefox.

  12. Other polls allow a don’t know. Reachtel makes you choose. And when that happens it seems Trumble’s advantage is no real advantage.

  13. I was hoping to see the end of Chuckles Cash before I had to head off to the dentist. Alas it was not to be and and I am off to enjoy my visit.

    I shall have to console myself with the schadenfreude of the s.44 seven and the probability they’ll all be unemployed.

  14. Aqualung @ #76 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:59 pm

    The only thing I have to work out now is copy and paste. I used to be able to hold my finger on the screen and the copy/paste menu used to appear in chrome. Doesn’t seem to work that way in firefox.

    I use a little pen like doover with a rubber pad. Holding the pad on a word give a mickey mouse ears shape which you can drag to wherever and when you release you get a “copy – share – seect all” choice which is what happened with my meaningless post at comment 80. I copied and posted to the comment box and then (honest) a gremlin posted the comment.

    I only use the Samsung tablet when I’m too lazy to get out of bed at night to look a my desktop.

    Good luck with your posting.

    😊

  15. Al Pal
    A Mackerras type prediction: 2018 will morph into a year that throws out the usual norms of politics.
    There will be a movement – and a longing – for an outsider to lead the nation. It’s happening around the globe, and is about to hit our shores. Malcolm has disappointed too many, after high expectations following Abbott. Bill has a past, and lacks a certain authenticity.

    This kind of achey-breaky-heart moaning has resonance in the Crazy Branches of the Right. But it is utterly irrelevant to most voters.

    There’s no doubt at all that the Right feel somehow cut off from the culture – it is very much changed, after all – and from power. Their political instruments are no longer from- and of- the people. Where the Liberal Party once drew hundreds of thousands of members, these days it has barely a few thousand active members across the entire country, all put together. It is no longer a democratically-operated political Party. It is a projection of the past.

    WTF? these exiles ask themselves. How can they be so wrong? Their confusion must be very deep. Bernardi attacked Do-It-In-A-Dress only to prompt an increase in their donation flow by a factor of hundreds. The same thing sort has just happened with GetUp. Blind Right enmities, disguised as romanticism and nostalgia, and decorated with a trivial backward-gazing nationalism are just absurd. They also disclose a very deep anxiety about the future. I think this is the cause of the disintegration of the Right-plurality. The Right no longer has a coherent and persuasive set of values about self-and-society in the 21st century. Their world view is broken.

    It will take a lot more than some imagined outsider to change that.

  16. [jenauthor
    Gawd Probyn thinks Cash might be promoted to AG!!!!!!]

    Which means Brandis goes to London? I thought he was resisting that move.

  17. 0 Thursday, October 26, 2017 6:22 pm
    BK
    BK
    mari @ #28 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:24 pm

    https://mobile.twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/923440307072507904

    Just beat a huge storm home so posting David Rowe before it hits

    Hasn’t he captured Canavan perfectly!

    Sure did, he is so good, seems to be able to capture all of them

    He is also a lovely man, a follower of mine and former PBer was blocked by him ,
    Couldn’t understand why , I asked David by dm any reason on his behalf, David came back it was a mistake and unblocked, result a happy admirer of david’#

    QUESTION

    Thank you and you did Well!!

  18. I shall have to console myself with the schadenfreude of the s.44 seven and the probability they’ll all be unemployed.

    I wouldn’t worry about the Coalition ones. They’ll be ‘warehoused’ by Coalition-friendly businesses, think-tanks or found a spot by the Federal Government or a friendly state one.

  19. Sorry to say I’m pessimistic about the HC. They gave the thumbs up to the postvey thingy. The village idiot from the Crab Nebula will most likely go. Maybe 1 other. Waters.

  20. Cash is suitably dumb. You have to be dumb to get ahead in Lib-land. You have to be able to evince a loathing of unions and “The Left” and then you need to exhibit a kind of numb-toughness. She is a blunt instrument.

  21. Yep – I am not pinning my hopes on the HC. They seem to be unpredictable and I think fate will try to give Mal a win ….

    Am hoping otherwise because I really think Joyce is a stain on politics.

  22. briefly
    If Milo is correct, the backlash against political correctness, feminism, identity politics etc is going to fuel the rise of the right for decades to come

  23. A client of Ian Narev’s cash deposit ATMs?

    A MAN arrested in dramatic Australian Federal Police raids in Sydney yesterday has been accused of depositing bundles of up to $10,000 cash into banks as part of a major money laundering operation.

    Fouad Moussa, 27, pleaded not guilty to dealing with the proceeds of crime worth more than $100,000 in Bankstown Local Court today.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/man-accused-of-depositing-bundles-of-up-to-10000/news-story/8613057cbb6b2dc3feefb6a4d6dd493d

  24. Xenophon should not go, because what he had was well below what actually qualifies as the trappings of citizenship or owing allegiance. The others are anyone’s guess.

  25. Aqualung @ #85 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:16 pm

    And a big thank you to AR for the add on. I was under the impression it didn’t work on phones.

    👍

    It may be just that I didn’t hear of it earlier, but I have only been aware of it working on phones in the last week or so.
    PB is barely usable without it.

    briefly @ #92 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:25 pm

    I think there should be more dual citizens in the Parliament…about 60% would be right.

    No thanks.

  26. We’ve all discussed the citizenship 7 ad nauseum but I haven’t changed my mind.

    I do not think the constitution should be an interpretive piece of literature. I reckon that it one document that really must be taken literally for the clarity it provides to all Australians.

    If the constitution is an anachronism, then it should be changed to reflect that, but interpreting it differently is unfair to those who have been subjected to it’s direct legality in the past.

  27. Bonza
    briefly
    If Milo is correct, the backlash against political correctness, feminism, identity politics etc is going to fuel the rise of the right for decades to come

    This will stir the passions of the Crazies, but these sentiments are inherently reactionary. They are backward gazing and they are romantic. They invoke repression and will continue to divide and confuse the Right, as they already have.

    I think – maybe, “I believe” is the correct expression – that people value their democratic autonomy and will respond to appeals to equality. The right actually have only grievance. They have nothing that will draw people together. In this case, the attempt of the Right to institutionalise repression will fail.

    I fight with this conviction in my head!

  28. Parliament should have…

    many more women
    many more atheists
    many more republicans
    many more workers
    many more scientists and creative thinkers
    many more indigenous people
    many more recent migrants
    many more dual citizens

Comments Page 2 of 23
1 2 3 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *