The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted last night from a sample of 2399, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, unchanged from the last poll on September 28. So far the only primary vote numbers we have are inclusive of a 9% undecided rating: at first blush, they suggest the Coalition on around 37.5%, Labor on 38.5% and the Greens on One Nation on 10% apiece, although forced responses of the undecided would probably bring the major parties back a little. Those figures should be forthcoming soon-ish.
The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51-49 as preferred prime minister, down from 52-48. Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is rated good or very good by 25%, poor or very poor by 40%; for Bill Shorten, the corresponding numbers are 28% and 38.5%.
A Mackerras type prediction: 2018 will morph into a year that throws out the usual norms of politics.
There will be a movement – and a longing – for an outsider to lead the nation. It’s happening around the globe, and is about to hit our shores. Malcolm has disappointed too many, after high expectations following Abbott. Bill has a past, and lacks a certain authenticity.
So what will happen.
It won’t be Pauline. It won’t be NX. It’s wont be Cory.
But whoever it is will paint a big picture, a vision and a program that will appeal. It will be Macron-like in its blooming. And I think it’s coming because what we have now doesn’t cut it anymore. We will all know by next winter.
IoM
Italian cooking style.
adrian @ #37 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:59 pm
Glover is just so light weight that he is lighter than air. Pathetic.
Question @ #47 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:07 pm
Could be.
But I did think he had not noticed how to navigate to a particular page.
Boerwar @ #52 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:10 pm
Yes, it’s very clever, because it gets his Italian citizenship in with his love of coal.
mari @ #28 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:24 pm
Hasn’t he captured Canavan perfectly!
Why does Reachtel have PPM nearly level pegging when there is a significant gap in (all?) other polls?
Boerwar @ #56 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:22 pm
Rex Douglas has hacked all the other polls. He hasn’t managed this one yet.
Aqualung @ #20 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:48 pm
For Android
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin/
This is for Firefox. Works well with my Samsung tablet and phone.
I can’t remember if I checked Chrome on my Tablets. Having a look now. Can’t get C+ to work.
Try using Firefox.
@boerwar
Reachtel forces a response on the PPM question, unlike other polls. Maybe when undecided on that question are pushed they go for Shorten rather than Turnbull.
I think it goes to show that PPM has little relationship with 2PP.
Boerwar @ #56 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:22 pm
forced selection.
Other polls allow a don’t know. Reachtel makes you choose. And when that happens it seems Trumble’s advantage is no real advantage.
People might not be enthused by Shorten. But he doesn’t repel them, just leaves them wishing he was more. That won’t hurt him in an election against Trumble (or any other Lib in the current Parliament)
ratsak @ #61 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:28 pm
Rex begs to differ!
Al Pal,
We led the world in “voting dumb” when we put Abbott in. We are still digesting the results.
@KayJay,
Thanks for the links to AR’s plugins. I will make sure I install them this time!
Bemused
Yes I am familiar with the page x GOTO.
The blog works best I think if everybody has C+.
For BKs posts I could have said GOTO page 4.
Time for me to settle for viewing of BOSCH series 3.
Toodles.
Question @ #63 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:32 pm
Yep. In front of the curve in the late 19th / early 20th centuries on sufferage and secret voting.
In front of the curve in the early 21st century on voting for fakenews bullshit artists.
KayJay @ #58 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:24 pm
KayJay. The scales have fallen from my eyes. I bow down to you. Treats galore for you
🍥 🍰 🎂 ☕
On forests and possums. Sigh.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/pressure-on-andrews-as-northcote-voters-back-push-for-great-forest-national-park-20171025-gz81tq.html
With Turnbull shielding Cash, it looks like federal politics is more or less in limbo until 2.15pm tomorrow.
And then…
m31 and r
Thanks.
Aqualung
I am just a bumbler. I have MS Word docs with Plugin addresses and various other bits and pieces.
I expect a couple of experts will have a word or two to say about the “load more comments” problem besetting some.
Thanks for the emoji. ☕
“Coal Cucina?
A carbonara, perhaps?
citizen @ #69 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:49 pm
Cash will be praying Barnaby is gorn.
I have to be off myself.
KayJay @ #65 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:35 pm
Apart from those who are unfortunate enough to have a platform that won’t install C+, be it on their own heads!
The only objections I have heard to it are entirely spurious.
ratsak
Nope, the ‘Mercans got there well before us. Voted in Dubya Bush and to prove their dumb voting superiority did it again.
The only thing I have to work out now is copy and paste. I used to be able to hold my finger on the screen and the copy/paste menu used to appear in chrome. Doesn’t seem to work that way in firefox.
I have just installed the C+ plugin (https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin/ ; Firefox on Mac OS/X) and it is a big improvement:
poroti @ #75 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:58 pm
Well tehy went one better (or is it worse?) with Trump.
Douglas and Milko @ #77 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:00 pm
Great!
Other polls allow a don’t know. Reachtel makes you choose. And when that happens it seems Trumble’s advantage is no real advantage.
Gawd Probyn thinks Cash might be promoted to AG!!!!!!
I was hoping to see the end of Chuckles Cash before I had to head off to the dentist. Alas it was not to be and and I am off to enjoy my visit.
I shall have to console myself with the schadenfreude of the s.44 seven and the probability they’ll all be unemployed.
Aqualung @ #76 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:59 pm
I use a little pen like doover with a rubber pad. Holding the pad on a word give a mickey mouse ears shape which you can drag to wherever and when you release you get a “copy – share – seect all” choice which is what happened with my meaningless post at comment 80. I copied and posted to the comment box and then (honest) a gremlin posted the comment.
I only use the Samsung tablet when I’m too lazy to get out of bed at night to look a my desktop.
Good luck with your posting.
😊
Al Pal
A Mackerras type prediction: 2018 will morph into a year that throws out the usual norms of politics.
There will be a movement – and a longing – for an outsider to lead the nation. It’s happening around the globe, and is about to hit our shores. Malcolm has disappointed too many, after high expectations following Abbott. Bill has a past, and lacks a certain authenticity.
This kind of achey-breaky-heart moaning has resonance in the Crazy Branches of the Right. But it is utterly irrelevant to most voters.
There’s no doubt at all that the Right feel somehow cut off from the culture – it is very much changed, after all – and from power. Their political instruments are no longer from- and of- the people. Where the Liberal Party once drew hundreds of thousands of members, these days it has barely a few thousand active members across the entire country, all put together. It is no longer a democratically-operated political Party. It is a projection of the past.
WTF? these exiles ask themselves. How can they be so wrong? Their confusion must be very deep. Bernardi attacked Do-It-In-A-Dress only to prompt an increase in their donation flow by a factor of hundreds. The same thing sort has just happened with GetUp. Blind Right enmities, disguised as romanticism and nostalgia, and decorated with a trivial backward-gazing nationalism are just absurd. They also disclose a very deep anxiety about the future. I think this is the cause of the disintegration of the Right-plurality. The Right no longer has a coherent and persuasive set of values about self-and-society in the 21st century. Their world view is broken.
It will take a lot more than some imagined outsider to change that.
And a big thank you to AR for the add on. I was under the impression it didn’t work on phones.
👍
[jenauthor
Gawd Probyn thinks Cash might be promoted to AG!!!!!!]
Which means Brandis goes to London? I thought he was resisting that move.
0 Thursday, October 26, 2017 6:22 pm
BK
BK
mari @ #28 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:24 pm
https://mobile.twitter.com/FinancialReview/status/923440307072507904
Just beat a huge storm home so posting David Rowe before it hits
Hasn’t he captured Canavan perfectly!
Sure did, he is so good, seems to be able to capture all of them
He is also a lovely man, a follower of mine and former PBer was blocked by him ,
Couldn’t understand why , I asked David by dm any reason on his behalf, David came back it was a mistake and unblocked, result a happy admirer of david’#
QUESTION
Thank you and you did Well!!
I shall have to console myself with the schadenfreude of the s.44 seven and the probability they’ll all be unemployed.
I wouldn’t worry about the Coalition ones. They’ll be ‘warehoused’ by Coalition-friendly businesses, think-tanks or found a spot by the Federal Government or a friendly state one.
Sorry to say I’m pessimistic about the HC. They gave the thumbs up to the postvey thingy. The village idiot from the Crab Nebula will most likely go. Maybe 1 other. Waters.
Cash is suitably dumb. You have to be dumb to get ahead in Lib-land. You have to be able to evince a loathing of unions and “The Left” and then you need to exhibit a kind of numb-toughness. She is a blunt instrument.
Yep – I am not pinning my hopes on the HC. They seem to be unpredictable and I think fate will try to give Mal a win ….
Am hoping otherwise because I really think Joyce is a stain on politics.
I think there should be more dual citizens in the Parliament…about 60% would be right.
briefly
If Milo is correct, the backlash against political correctness, feminism, identity politics etc is going to fuel the rise of the right for decades to come
A client of Ian Narev’s cash deposit ATMs?
Xenophon should not go, because what he had was well below what actually qualifies as the trappings of citizenship or owing allegiance. The others are anyone’s guess.
Aqualung @ #85 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:16 pm
It may be just that I didn’t hear of it earlier, but I have only been aware of it working on phones in the last week or so.
PB is barely usable without it.
briefly @ #92 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:25 pm
No thanks.
We’ve all discussed the citizenship 7 ad nauseum but I haven’t changed my mind.
I do not think the constitution should be an interpretive piece of literature. I reckon that it one document that really must be taken literally for the clarity it provides to all Australians.
If the constitution is an anachronism, then it should be changed to reflect that, but interpreting it differently is unfair to those who have been subjected to it’s direct legality in the past.
Bonza
briefly
If Milo is correct, the backlash against political correctness, feminism, identity politics etc is going to fuel the rise of the right for decades to come
This will stir the passions of the Crazies, but these sentiments are inherently reactionary. They are backward gazing and they are romantic. They invoke repression and will continue to divide and confuse the Right, as they already have.
I think – maybe, “I believe” is the correct expression – that people value their democratic autonomy and will respond to appeals to equality. The right actually have only grievance. They have nothing that will draw people together. In this case, the attempt of the Right to institutionalise repression will fail.
I fight with this conviction in my head!
Parliament should have…
many more women
many more atheists
many more republicans
many more workers
many more scientists and creative thinkers
many more indigenous people
many more recent migrants
many more dual citizens