Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Coalition retains its relatively encouraging voting intention result from Essential Research, as mixed signals emerged about its new energy policy.

The Guardian reports the Coalition has retained its two-point gain from last week on the Essential Research fortnight rolling average, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 52-48 – primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also records 75% of respondents having voted in the same-sex marriage survey, with 60% having voted yes (down four from three weeks ago) and 34% no (up four).

Other questions related to energy policy, with 35% expressing approval for the government’s new national energy guarantee, 18% disapproval, and 47% unable to day. Only 16% thought it would reduce power prices, compared with 31% who said it would increase them, and 31% who felt it would make no difference. Thirty-two per cent expressed support for the end to renewable energy subsidies in 2020, with 41% opposed; 35% supported the replacement of the clean energy target with new reliability and emissions reductions obligations on retailers, with 32% opposed. Labor was “more trusted to reduce carbon emissions, invest in renewables, stand up to the power companies and develop a modern power grid”, but there was little in it on “reducing power prices or ensuring a reliable power supply”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,288 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. If Barnyard gets punted, Cash will be a massive liability during the by-election and she’ll either resign or get sacked to make Trumble look strong.

  2. mikehilliard

    The whole Forestry Dept shambles is the area which should be opened up. It is the one area in which I find it very difficult to vote Labor in Victoria. It has been going on for at least 20 years – a bit like the Murray Darling Basin.

  3. An adverse finding for Baaaaarnaby and the other goats tomorrow will probably see this maladministration plunged into the worst crisis I can remember. Even in the depths of Gillard’s destruction there was nothing to compare.

    We are potentially facing the prospect of three ministers including the DPM being found to have been ineligible to stand and so potentially all of their ministerial decisions from about September last year and absolutely everything they’ve done since their issues became public knowledge open to litigation.

    That will also open up a witch hunt for more dual cits who potentially fall foul of whatever standard the HC sets. A witch hunt you know Labor won’t be too actively driving in the foreground, but won’t be trying to hose down either because they’re confident of their processes and the stupid Libs demanded Shorten provide the paperwork until he did so, creating the standard to which they will be held.

    Add to that the member for Lyne and probably another Qld Senator with serious s44 questions relating to government contracts.

    A minister in the dead throes trying to fend off resignation on an issue that has only really started unravelling, with much much more dirt almost certain to follow on the depth of the misuse of the ROC to pursue political opponents.

    And this is all before Abbott has even had to open his mouth. And we get the SSM result shortly which is already promising to see the loons try one last destructive push.

    If this government and this PM had a single achievement with which to bless themselves they’d stand maybe a snowflakes chance in hell.

    Tomorrow’s HC decision could be the most momentous occasion in a decade of politics. (or it could be a damp squib and the walking dead will limp on /grattan 😉 )

  4. “This mystery was solved a few days back when it was suggested she sleeps standing up.”

    She is Borg??

    I liked Seven of Nine better. 🙂

  5. KayJay

    Voice Endeavour @ #2045 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    @KayJay – a source told me that not only will the HC remove the 7 dual citizens, they will also remove Abbott and Turnbull for being (direct quote from the high court ruling) “literally the worst, like, I can’t even”

    imacca @ #2044 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 11:35 am

    KayJay mate!

    the gang of seven will be given the boot tomorrow.

  6. KayJay

    Voice Endeavour @ #2045 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    @KayJay – a source told me that not only will the HC remove the 7 dual citizens, they will also remove Abbott and Turnbull for being (direct quote from the high court ruling) “literally the worst, like, I can’t even”

    imacca @ #2044 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 11:35 am

    KayJay mate!

    the gang of seven will be given the boot tomorrow.

    I will take comfort from these assurances.

    Jenauthor has thrown a spanner in the fortune telling by being sensible.

    Nevertheless I will rest peacefully until tomorrow knowing that Mr. Turnbull’s house is being protected and our borders kept safe by what one astute poster has named the “uber tuber”,

    I hope that nobody will be so crass as to mention the “uber tuber über alles,”. That would be a step too far.

    Time for hamburger and coffee lunch.

    Repost. Try again.

  7. The LNP are clearly desperate…anticipating an early election, losing badly on their right and to Labor, facing a huge defeat in WA and QLD….looking for something/anything to reverse the weight of sentiment and totally mangling it all…

  8. mikehilliard

    You’ve only got to yell “jobs” and they go to water. But there is no logic in saving timber jobs when all the trees are gone and the region has been ruined for tourism.

  9. When asked, most voters – 4/5 – will nominate the environment as a matter that concerns them. the politics also hinges around jobs v environment…we need to make a better argument that protecting the environment is also pro-jobs

  10. lizzie

    Still would be extraordinary for it to be even read in that time frame, let alone acted upon.

    Emails rarely go directly to the person in authority – the more important the person, the more emails they receive, the more likely the emails are channelled through staffers, the longer it takes for them to be brought to the attention of the important person.

    If I wanted to prevent something, I’d have sent off the correspondence at least a month beforehand, and spent the ensuing time madly bombarding the relevant office with follow up emails and phone calls.

    A phone call, in fact, often gets more action – you can quickly establish if you’re talking to someone who has the power to do a anything and then work out from there who you should be speaking to. If you end up with the right person, and a compelling argument, then you can get almost immediate action, but even in the best case scenario you’d expect a delay of a couple of days (the person in authority has to be able to send directions to other people in authority, etc – takes a while to filter down foodchains).

    My absolute quickest response ever was the result of a direct call to a Minister who was a friend of mine, but even then her office had to enter into a lengthy dialogue with the relevant department via email.

  11. …sorry, but I always get narked when someone contacts a politician’s office and expects their problem to be instantly solved. It rarely works like that.

  12. briefly @ #2094 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 11:54 am

    When asked, most voters – 4/5 – will nominate the environment as a matter that concerns them. the politics also hinges around jobs v environment…we need to make a better argument that protecting the environment is also pro-jobs

    We would have absurdly many jobs in solar, batteries, and other renewable technology if the government wasn’t ass-backwards on energy policy.

  13. imacca

    “I liked Seven of Nine better.”

    a.k.a. Jeri Ryan: ex-wife of Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House in the US.

    It’s a small universe.

  14. zoomster

    I know from twitter links that the relevant minister has been pressured over this for months, but her answer is wtte we are reviewing the situation and will have an answer next year. Bulldozers can wreck a patch in weeks.

    Already my friends tell me that there are great gaps opening up beside the well-known tourist drives beyond Healesville.

  15. swamprat
    To manage the many political distractive hares that Malcolm has let loose, the Government needs to establish an Office of the Registrar of Distractions, with a staff considerably larger than the ROC.

    HA! You should do humour more often Swampy. 🙂

  16. Senator Murray Watt
    (@MurrayWatt)
    Hanson votes with Turnbull to sell out battlers & now runs a protection racket for dodgy Michaelia Cash. Watch, like and share. #Estimates pic.twitter.com/lBGkmkUSnb

    October 26, 2017

  17. Swamp,

    Who wouldn’t be cheered by watching Cash get dipped in shit?

    She is one of those people who annoy by being so pleased with themselves without actually being good at anything.

  18. [briefly
    When asked, most voters – 4/5 – will nominate the environment as a matter that concerns them. the politics also hinges around jobs v environment…we need to make a better argument that protecting the environment is also pro-jobs
    ]

    One of the problems here is that many people like politicians are unable to project very far into the future and they like certainty.

    A job is something they know as a job now.

    So when you talk about something new, it’s not something people can immediately relate to and the thought of change creates uncertainty in how they fit into a new order.

    This creates difficulties in implementation and acceptance.

  19. Is anyone else having trouble with “load rest of comments” or do I have to go off and clear my cache etc? I’m trying to catch up and see BK’s morning digest.

  20. lizzie

    Hmm – which areas? There is very little true old growth forest around Healesville – a lot of what looks like it is was in fact planted as plantations after the 1939. Certainly that’s the case with the Black Spur (I’d be the first to lie under the bulldozers, I hasten to add…)

    I’m certainly unaware (and I think I would be) of any trees left in the area which are hundreds of years old. The ones which didn’t get clobbered in 1928 got cleaned up in 1939.

  21. Sign of panic by Chrissie?

    AshGhebranious‏ @AshGhebranious · 5h5 hours ago

    Pyne’s allegation Shorten should have supplied documents to ROC when he headed AWU defies time & physics. ROC didnt exist in 2006. #auspol

  22. “the Government needs to establish an Office of the Registrar of Distractions,”

    Silliness!! There is just no way that there could EVER be the resources available to such a body to even attempt to keep up with rate of new distractions from Truffles and the MadCap Flying Circus. They would need acres of warehouse space just to keep a basic half page note registering the mere existence of each issue.

  23. Questions

    “She is one of those people who annoy by being so pleased with themselves without actually being good at anything.”
    ———–

    You are forgetting her hair engineering skills.

  24. “Pyne’s allegation Shorten should have supplied documents to ROC when he headed AWU defies time & physics. ROC didnt exist in 2006. #auspol”

    Probably works in the parallel universe that the Libs think they exist in though. 🙂

    Can this lot show up as any MORE chaotic and dysfunctional??

    Hmmmm…..QT coming up so better not go there……

  25. I would suggest people try AR’s PB comment extension.
    There may be some issue with Crikey servers sending 2000+ comments to you at once when you hit the ‘Load rest’ button.

  26. BK @ #1783 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:07 am

    Section 4a . . .

    The New Matilda calls out Charles Waterstreet’s behaviour.
    https://newmatilda.com/2017/10/24/the-real-rake-a-sense-of-whats-possible-calling-out-charles-waterstreet/
    Police are investigating a purported recording of Sydney property developer Salim Mehajer threatening a business owner, calling him “a Shia dog” and threatening to attack his mother. This bloke’s all class!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-allegedly-recorded-in-phone-rant-threatening-owner-of-car-hire-firm-20171024-gz7j61.html
    Bunnings Warehouse’s aggressive bid to win over the British DIY shopper with its low-cost hardware and weekend sausage sizzles has hit a snag, with the business posting another huge drop in sales.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2017/10/25/bunnings-hits-snag-conquer-britain/

  27. zoomster

    The very old growth trees under current protest and imminent danger are in East Gippsland, but the nibbling away around Toolangi is potential glider/possum habitat and another cause for protests (the Knitting Nannas). The post-1939 growth is just about useful for the larger possums and owls. There was some lobbying a couple of decades ago to change Forestry’s definition of ‘mature’ from 40-50 years to over 90 years, to give the wildlife a chance.

  28. BK @ #1781 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:07 am

    Section 4 . . .

    As does Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/25/stop-scoffing-its-about-time-canberras-reputation-got-a-boost
    Centrelink’s phone system returned 55m engaged signals last financial year, prompting further criticism that the agency is “in crisis”. The figure is a dramatic increase on the 29m calls that received a busy signal in 2015-16, and the 22m in 2014-15. The evidence, which does not include the number of abandoned calls, emerged during Senate estimates on Wednesday evening. Nice work from Tudge and Porter!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/25/centrelink-phone-system-returned-55m-busy-signals-in-a-year
    Investors in Wesfarmers got seriously spooked on Wednesday when the release of its quarterly sales numbers showed Coles sales growth had slowed to a crawl. And – believe it or not – a large contributor to this was cheap vegetables. Elizabeth Knight reports/
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/the-sleeper-issue-keeping–wesfarmers-shareholders-awake-20171025-gz7vpn.html
    The Richmond footballer accused of sharing a photograph of a topless woman wearing his 2017 premiership medallion, has returned home from his post-season trip and now faces a significant sanction from the club.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/richmond-premiership-player-faces-club-sanction-over-topless-photo-20171025-gz884a.html

  29. BK @ #1780 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:06 am

    Section 3a . . .

    The Australian government ignored a valuation provided by its own research agency when it bought back water from an agricultural company in the Lower Darling in June, and instead paid $78m – almost twice as much as the recommendation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/26/78m-spent-on-darling-water-buyback-nearly-double-its-valuation
    Some words of advice from Ben Grubb on the NBN.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/leaks-reveal-nbn-plan-for-cheaper-internet-20171025-gz8b3i.html
    Australia has been ranked last out of 28 countries when it comes to broadband satisfaction, a new international poll shows. It can’t get any worse than this – numerically at least.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/ipsos-global-advisor-survey-finds-australia-ranks-lowest-for-broadband-satisfaction-20171024-gz7ibi.html
    Changing its design for his own political advantage, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has turned the NBN into a massive national disappointment, says Dr Peter Gerrand.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/and-now-for-malcolm-turnbulls-latest-nbn-trick,10857
    Judith Ireland springs to the defence of the City of Canberra.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/canberra-the-third-top-city-in-the-world-of-course-it-is-20171024-gz7mrb.html

  30. BK @ #1779 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:06 am

    Section 3 . . .

    I take my hat off to Apple for this development.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/apple-and-cochlear-launch-product-that-streams-calls-straight-to-implant-in-ear-20171024-gz6y86.html
    John Warhurst says that NZ has given our own stale politics a salutary lesson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/new-zealands-lessons-for-stale-australian-politics-20171024-gz7kv4.html
    It’s worth reading this extract from a lecture by a country magistrate in which he refers to the effect that working on certain cases has had on him.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/magistrate-david-heilpern-speaks-of-vicarious-trauma-in-tristan-jepson-lecture-20171023-gz6il8.html
    This action on aged care homes auditing is well overdue. I hope it is not just words.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/relentless-spotchecks-for-aged-care-facilities-under-turnbull-government-plan-20171025-gz7ob8.html
    A brother of Las Vegas shooter Stephen Paddock has been arrested in Los Angeles on child porn charges, according to multiple reports. Nice family!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/brother-of-las-vegas-shooter-arrested-on-child-porn-charges-20171025-gz8cli.html

  31. BK @ #1778 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 7:05 am

    Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    You have to hand it to David Rowe!

    David Pope really puts the boot into the AFP ride and its political motivation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Mark Knight joins the bandwagon pouring scorn on the raid.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/89392542a5031c4a65f32da9bae31b09?width=1024
    And Jon Kudelka joins the fray.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/67290cab58d343c76eeaa4f780f8dcb9
    John Shakespeare on Canberra living.

    Some perspective from Cathy Wilcox.

    John Shakespeare and a political chimera.

    Fiona Katauskas with Halloween 2017.

    Roy Taylor on Halloween too.

    Peter Broelman and an AFP board game. Ouch!

    Paul Zanetti gatecrashes Rudd’s book launch.

    Matt Golding on Senator Bob Corker unloading on Trump.

    Golding on the AFP raid.


    Sean Leahy is still waiting for the announcement of the Queensland election.

    And he looks a the stakes on the High Court decisions.

    Leahy takes a good swipe at Rudd’s disparagement of Wayne Swan.

  32. BK @ #1772 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:59 am

    Section 2 . . .

    Facing questions about the NBN and his ongoing lacklustre performance in the polls, Turnbull assumed the fail-safe position of blaming the unions and Labor.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/afp-union-raids-getup-cash-and-turnbulls-21-pesky-polls-in-a-row,10858
    More from Mark Kenny as he sees the probable YES win in the survey putting Turnbull under a lot of pressure.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pressure-mounts-on-malcolm-turnbull-as-60-per-cent-vote-yes-according-to-new-poll-analysis-20171025-gz7ohe.html
    Peter Martin exposes the pharmacy racket.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/wholl-face-up-the-pharmacy-protection-racket-20171025-gz7u6o.html
    The NSW police force is accused of being unable to “identify the people it has killed” after it emerged the unit responsible for investigating fatal and non-fatal shootings by officers only holds records of incidents for the past five years. Among others, Sean Nicholls is unimpressed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-police-dont-know-who-they-have-killed-20171025-gz7pbt.html
    Medical students have declared their support for doctor-assisted dying in defiance of the Australian Medical Association’s (AMA) strident opposition to euthanasia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/australian-medical-students-association-throw-support-behind-voluntary-assisted-dying-putting-them-at-odds-with-amas-euthanasia-stance-20171024-gz7ngg.html
    The national director of the Liberals & Nationals for Yes campaign says there will be a three pronged focus in the event of a YES win but there is no place for complacency.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/aj-bragg-samesex-deadline-approaches-20171008-gywqjb.html
    Dutton has been hit with another class action lawsuit brought on behalf of asylum seekers detained under Labor and Coalition governments over the past six years.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/thousands-to-join-class-action-against-peter-dutton-over-detention-regime-20171025-gz7qup.html
    Treasury secretary John Fraser has said Australian banks could face further restrictions and warned regulators should guard against excessive debt in the financial system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/dont-be-comfortable-treasury-secretary-john-fraser-warns-banks-and-homeowners-20171024-gz7mgd.html
    With testimonies like this surely Harvey Weinstein will go down – in a legal sense that is!
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/harvey-weinstein-assistant-breaks-confidentiality-agreement-to-reveal-abuse-20171024-gz7juw.html
    The Australian Taxation Office is still not compliant with mandatory cyber security standards because of its repeated IT outages, Tax Commissioner Chris Jordan says. Oh dear!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/ato-not-compliant-with-cyber-security-standards-due-to-it-outages-chris-jordan-20171025-gz86a0.html

  33. BK @ #1770 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 6:58 am

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    As someone said last night Cash threw her staffer under a bus but forgot to let go.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-unions-seek-to-turn-the-tables-on-malcolm-turnbull-over-police-raids-20171025-gz7zx5.html
    Why the media-conscious raids on the AWU offices were a case of over-reach.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-overreach-in-raids-on-bill-shortens-former-union-20171025-gz875y.html
    Andrew Bolt says the police raids on Bill Shorten’s former union seem part of a disturbing pattern of the Liberals using state power to persecute a political enemy. Google.
    /news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-liberals-taking-a-risk-on-vendetta-against-labor/news-story/260aa0cad58b03716ee9c577bcd54085
    On the Cash fiasco Katharine Murphy begins her contribution with “I’ll keep this brief, because there’s only one thing you can say about the events of the past 24 hours: what a complete shocker.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/25/michaelia-cash-and-the-rogue-staffer-when-political-theatre-goes-off-script
    Michelle Grattan’s rather tame contribution on the matter.
    https://theconversation.com/cash-staff-member-quits-over-media-tip-offs-as-awu-affair-backfires-86357
    Mark Kenny says that the fight between Turnbull and Shorten has just got personal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/awu-raids-the-highstakes-fight-between-malcolm-turnbull-and-bill-shorten-gets-personal-20171025-gz8688.html
    Laura Tingle begins with “Two rules of politics: first, you don’t mind getting into the mud if it diverts attention on to something you think damages your opponents; second, genuine outrage always works better than the feigned variety.” Google.
    /news/attack-on-bill-shortens-union-past-blows-up-in-coalitions-face-20171025-gz85e3
    The fate of the Registered Organisations Commission’s investigation, and whether it warranted such extraordinary measures and such a political target, will likely define the future legitimacy of the agency for good or ill. Google.
    /news/policy/industrial-relations/inside-the-watchdog-investigating-bill-shorten-and-the-awu-20171025-gz7oaz
    GetUp! is now anticipating an Australia Federal Police raid on its Sydney offices, as the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) investigates allegations that it is an “associated entity” of the ALP and the Greens.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/10/25/getup/

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